Fantasy Football Running Back Tiers 2018

Running back might just be the most important position in fantasy football and it’s important to realize how you approach the position before you draft in 2018.

There’s always a major debate during Fantasy Football draft season about what the right way to treat running backs is. Some players love to go heavy on backs because they are hard to find reliable ones week to week that you can count on for a heavy workload. While that is valid, there are plenty of folks who want to zig and go with receivers early and then pick off back up running backs that can have a lot of touches through the passing game and be productive in non-traditional ways.

As with all draft strategies, there is not right answer. Drafting needs to have thought and preparation put into it but we all saw last season what can happen in the worst case scenario. Players that spent the number one overall pick on Cardinals running back David Johnson cold left in the cold when he broke his wrist in the first game and didn’t play again.

That’s always a legitimate fear with running backs but the reward can be so massive and such an advantage on a week to week basis that getting one big time running back early is pretty enticing. I’ll be breaking down my personal tiers and just touching on some highlights through them to explain my reasoning. As a note, these are my personal tiers and doesn’t reflect any staff consensus. In addition, these are .5 PPR ranks. If you have any other questions, I’m always a tweet away at @bucn4life.

Fantasy Football Running Back – Tier 1

Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams

Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers

David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals

Ezekiel Elliot, Dallas Cowboys

If you’re sitting with the number one pick, you can make an argument for any of these backs. They’re all bell cows in the offense, have their roles set in stone and it’s almost a matter of preference. They have minor nitpicks as well but it’s hard to not take them in the top four picks, even in any type of point per reception league. Any of these four could easily finish as the RB1 this season.

As for the minor concerns, Gurley and Bell are coming off big time workloads. They carry a little more injury risk and potential for injury is a little higher. That’s especially true of Bell, who has yet to actually report to the team. It’s expected he will, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him tweak a hamstring after missing all of camp. Zeke has some offensive line concerns but they should be healthy for the start of the season. Johnson has some of the same concerns but has a much safer track record of catching the ball, raising his floor a little bit.

If I have one of the top 4-5 picks in the draft, one of these guys is in my backfield. The only player that has the potential to unseat them is Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown.

Fantasy Football Running Back – Tier 2

Alvin Kamra, New Orleans Saints

Saquon Barkley, New York Giants

Melvin Gordon, Los Angeles Chargers

Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars

Jordan Howard, Chicago Bears

Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings

Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers

Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs 

This tier is very interesting to me as I think all of these players should finish as top 12 backs but this is where we start to see questions creep in for everyone. Fournette and Gordon have had some injury issues at time, but it’s hard to hold that against running backs as a whole. Kamara was so wildly efficient with his touches last year, we don’t know how he’ll truly settle in. He might be my personal favorite of the group as I wrote a piece on him last year coming out of college at gridironexperts.com and fell in love with him. He helped me win a few titles last year so I’ll have soft spot for him. Barkley is wildly talented and put on one of the best Combine performances ever but can the Giants offensive line get it done for him? He should see enough volume to erase that concern.

Hunt and Cook do have capable backs behind them in Spencer Ware and Latavius Murray but it’s hard to imagine they don’t see about 60 percent of the touches in what we expect will be good offenses. The jury is out on Howard but he’s been a top 15 back in a prehistoric John Fox-led offense the past two seasons. He should be able to pull that feat off again and one of my ideal starts in a PPR draft is Brown in the 1st, Keenan Allen or Michael Thomas in the 2nd, and then Howard in the 3rd. CMC has been getting so much work in the preseason that if he can hold up to it, he could creep into the RB5-8 range this season. There might be some issues with this group but you should feel comfortable with one of the players as your lead back.

Fantasy Football Running Back – Tier 3

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals 

Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons

Jerick McKinnon, San Francisco 49ers 

Royce Freeman, Denver Broncos

Marshawn Lynch, Oakland Raiders 

Alex Collins, Baltimore Ravens 

There are probably plenty of people shaking their head at me for not putting Mixon in the previous tier but I’m not a giant fan of his. It’s not my Steelers fandom bleeding through, I just don’t trust that offense as a whole. I will also be the first person to say of all the players I’m down on compared to the industry, being down on Mixon is the scariest limb to be out on. It could make me look very stupid by the end of the season. I love Lynch because he always goes later than he should. I understand there’s concerns with coach Jon Gruden overall(I share them too) but Beast Mode looks plenty fresh and finished last year on a strong note. Even with his slow start, he was a top 20 back in .5 PPR last year. After he started getting consistent work, he averaged right around 15 PPR points a game, which isn’t his strength. He should finish at least that high again with a top 12-15 finish as a ceiling.

Freeman would be better served as an RB2 on your team but the upside is there if the Atlanta offense takes a step forward after last year. Hopefully he sees more work in the passing game this year. I would have had McKinnon near the top of Tier 2 if not for a preseason injury. If he’s recovered and ready to go, he’s going to be a huge asset to that offense and a PPR monster. Collins was an RB2 last season and appears to be the clear cut starter on an offense that added some weapons. If opposing units have to respect the passing game a little more this year, Collins might be even better. Denver announced that Devontae Booker is the starter but he’s been outplayed by Royce Freeman pretty soundly in preseason. Once the latter seizes the reins, he’s not giving them back. All of these backs should be treated as high-end RB2 options and they have an outside chance at an RB1 finish. As I said, Mixon has the consensus highest ceiling but I think it’s still McKinnon as long as he’s healthy at the start of the season.

Fantasy Football Running Back – Tier 4

Derrick Henry/Dion Lewis, Tennessee Titans

Kenyan Drake, Miami Dolphins

LeSean McCoy, Buffalo Bills

Jay Ajayi, Philadelphia Eagles

Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints

Lamar Miller, Houston Texans 

Rex Burkhead, New England Patriots 

Carlos Hyde, Cleveland Browns

Peyton Barber, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks 

Now we start getting into players that have a nice ceiling but also has some major questions around them. Drake is an explosive player who dominated the end of the 2017 season, averaging 19.28 PPR points after he was given a full workload in the offense. If I trusted the Dolphins coaching staff, Drake would be in my Tier 2. The Tennessee duo is hard to evaluate since they haven’t really tipped their hands about how each will be used. I think Henry eventually emerges because Lewis has always had issues staying healthy. However, Lewis has a much more well rounded skillset and could fit better in the offense while he’s on the field. I don’t ever feel good about taking McCoy because of his offensive line woes and the general lack of talent around him. At some point, it just becomes a volume play with him. Miller also feels kind of weak as a choice but the quarterback Deshaun Watson played, he averaged about 15 PPR points a game compared to about seven when Watson didn’t play.

Ingram and Ajayi both have some serious flaws. Ajayi is in a crowded backfield in Philly, with Corey Clement and Darren Sproles hanging around. He might not have the biggest share of the touches, but plays in a great offense. He gets harder to take if Philly’s offense is missing Carson Went and Alshon Jeffery to start 2018. Ingram is a talented back but you’re going to burn a roster spot for the first month of the season and it’s not iron clad he gets the same work upon his return. There is risk there that many seem to be not giving much weight to. Burkhead is one of my favorites from this tier because he saw 23 red zone touches in just 10 games. Dion Lewis is gone now and rookie Sony Michel just returned to practice after a knee injury.

Hyde, Barber and Carson are all strikingly similar in situation right now. They’ve been treated as clear cut starters with a high profile rookie sitting behind them. If I ranked them in a traditional fashion, I think it’s Barber, Hyde and then Carson. I think Barber might have the longevity to last potentially the entire season in his role while Hyde and Carson will eventually lose their grip on their roles.

Fantasy Football Running Back –  Tier 5

Jamaal Williams, Green Bay Packers

Tevin Coleman, Atlanta Falcons

Adrian Peterson, Washington Redskins

Kerryon Johnson, Detroit Lions 

Bilal Powell, New York Jets 

Tarik Cohen, Chicago Bears

This is kind of the last call for running backs that you might trust to any extent. It illustrates that the position can get ugly in a hurry and even here, there are serious issues with just about every player here. I think Williams could vault into Tier 3 by the middle of the season if he fends off Aaron Jones after the first two weeks. Jones is suspended and it’s unclear what his role will be. I think he’s the more explosive runner but we also didn’t get to see Williams with quarterback Aaron Rodgers virtually at all last year. It also doesn’t matter how explosive Jones is if he can’t get on the field. The Packers have mentioned his pass protection needs work and if you can’t protect 12, you won’t see the field. Peterson is a late add to this tier but I think Washington signed him to start and carry the load. The Redskins offensive line is solid when they’re healthy. Coleman likely has the largest upside if Devonta Freeman gets hurt because he’s a weekly top-15 back with the bulk of the work. If you think Powell is way too high, consider this –

New York is treating him as a starter, and you should as well. Johnson might require some patience because the Detroit backfield looks like a full-blown time share right now. Eventually, I think his talent wins out. Cohen has been majorly out-snapped by Howard in the Chicago offense so far and maybe his role won’t be as large as some have speculated this off-season.

Fantasy Football Running Back – Tier 6 and Handcuffs

Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks 

Sony Michel/James White, New England Patriots 

Chris Thompson, Washington Redskins

Aaron Jones/Ty Montgomery, Green Bay Packers

C.J. Anderson, Carolina Panthers

Nick Chubb/Duke Johnson, Cleveland Browns 

Corey Clement, Philadelphia Eagles

Matt Breida, San Francisco 49ers

Gio Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals

Ronald Jones, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers 

Latavius Murray, Minnesota Vikings

John Kelly, Los Angeles Rams

James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers

Spencer Ware, Kansas City Chiefs 

Jonathan Williams, New Orleans Saints 

This is obviously the biggest tier of them all because the separation becomes smaller and smaller. To say it’s a gob bag is probably pretty accurate for the most part. There’s some players like White, Thompson, Montgomery, Johnson, Ekeler and Bernard that I would really only look at in PPR-style leagues.

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Others like Penny, Michel, Aaron Jones, Ronald Jones and Nick Chubb could eventually take over the starting roles in their offenses. There’s also no telling how long that will take, so you may need to be prepared to leave these players on the bench for a significant amount of time during the year.

Guys like Breida, Murray, Clement and maybe Williams are going to have weeks of standalone flex value. It just might be a little hard to peg when that’s going to happen.

I’m not really a huge handcuff guy, but Kelly and Conner are the the of players that can swing a league if Gurley or Bell go down. They would be the number one waiver priority and players would empty their FAAB on these guys, and rightfully so. If the bench is big enough and it makes sense, it’s a great lottery ticket to have.

As always, let me know what you think on Twitter and thanks for reading! Football is almost here!