MLB DFS Picks – Standouts: August 28th

MLB DFS Picks – Standouts: August 28th

Tonight’s MLB DFS Picks slate features 15 games with, Los Angeles (6.6), Boston (6.3), New York (6.2), Toronto (5.2), and Cleveland (5.2), holding the best projected team totals. With high-priced pitchers like, Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, and Aaron Nola available, finding value will be critical for success tonight. We’ll be aiming to highlight MLB DFS picks from the perspective of batted ball data, batter splits, line movement, and stolen base upside.

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MLB DFS Picks: Batted Ball Stats

Ian Kinsler – DK $3700, FD $2600

To say that Ian Kinsler has had a rough month would be putting it lightly. Kinsler has failed to reach value in nearly every game this month, and his price drop on both sites reflects this performance. On DraftKings he was priced as high $4600 in early August, $900 more expensive than his price tonight. Given his production you would think that his batted ball stats would also be down, however, they have remained fairly unchanged. In the last 15 days, his batted ball distance is down 15 feet, his exit velocity is down only 1 MPH, and his hard hit percentage is down only 1%, over his yearly average. This means that his massive price correction may have been too much, thus leaving some exploitable value on the table.

Batter Splits

Joc Pederson – DK $4700, FD $3100

Joc Pederson will draw an attractive matchup tonight, as he faces the righty, Ariel Jurado. Pederson is much better against right-handed pitching, with a .372 wOBA split (.197 better than when facing a lefty) and a .282 ISO split (.200 better than when facing a lefty). Pederson is significantly cheaper on FanDuel, and is one of the best value plays on the slate.

J.D. Martinez – DK $5900, FD $5000

J.D. Martinez is one of the few players that holds reverse splits, so drawing the righty, Jose Urena, will benefit Martinez tonight. Martinez is much better against righties, with a .478 wOBA split (.065 better than when facing a lefty) and a .393 ISO split (.136 better than when facing a lefty).

Line Movement

Boston Batters

Boston will host the visiting Miami Marlins, in a game in which the Red Soxs opened as -245 favorites. This line has moved even further towards Boston, and they are now listed as -260 favorites. In addition to the movement on the side, the total has also changed. The game total opened at 9 runs, but has moved up a full run, to 10. There are a couple other games today that have also seen this significant movement, but anytime a total changes by a full run, it’s important to take notice. Part of this move should be attributed to the favorable hitting conditions in Fenway tonight. With temperatures touching 90 degrees and the wind blowing out to center at around 12 MPH, I would expect a few balls to leave the park tonight.

Stolen Base Upside

Trea Turner – DK $4100, FD $3700

While Trea Turner will not have an easy matchup at the plate, he will have an enticing one on the base paths. Turner will face the righty, Aaron Nola, who has been susceptible to stolen bases this year. He’s surrendered 17 stolen bases over the course of 169 innings pitched. This should benefit Turner, who has stolen a league high, 33 bases this year.

Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis across all your favorite sports.