DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Wednesday, August 29

Welcome into the Wednesday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have a nine game slate tonight so let’s dig in!

Tuesday night was nothing special but we did cross 100 points on everything. Depending on what you played in DFS MLB, it should have been a decent night and hopefully you landed on Christian Yelich and his two home run game. Tonight brings a very interesting slate with a lot of different ways to go and one game that looks like it could go crazy with offense.

DFS MLB – White Sox at Yankees

White Sox Probable Starter – Reynaldo Lopez, RHP 

4.66 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 17.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .224 average, .318 wOBA, 15.9 K rate, 51.1 fly ball rate and 34.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .270 average, .347 wOBA, 18.3 K rate, 41.1 fly ball rate and 34.2 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Yankees xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

This is a pretty similar spot to what the Yankees saw last night against a reverse splits pitcher but the difference is Lopez pumps in fastballs around 60 percent of the time to either handedness. For whatever reason, he’s given up a lot more home runs at home than on the road but this isn’t your normal road game. I want the Yankees righties for the most part and it’s the same players we talked about last night – Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar and Giancarlo Stanton. The lefties of Greg Bird and Aaron Hicks aren’t terrible either just because Lopez gives up so many fly balls but they both have ISO’s under .150 against righty fastballs.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Options – Greg Bird, Aaron Hicks

Yankees Probable Starter – CC Sabathia, LHP 

3.30 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 21.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .179 average, .305 wOBA, 25.7 K rate, 31.6 fly ball rate and 19.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .251 average, .308 wOBA, 19.9 K rate, 35.6 fly ball rate and 30.1 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix

I think lefties are basically off the radar here as Sabathia is giving up virtually no power to the handedness. When we look at the righty hitters, there’s not much to write home about as far as pitch data. Sabathia throws nothing over 33 percent and it’s hard to get too excited for any White Sox hitter tonight despite being in a great hitter’s park. The team ranks 16th or worse in average, ISO, OPS, wOBA and wRC+ and they lead the league in strikeouts against lefty pitching. The veteran lefty has found his old form lately, hitting at least 40 FanDuel points in his last three starts. The only hitters I would consider are Matt Davidson and Avisail Garcia, with ISO’s over .240 but they’re definitely not my favorite play since they both carry a strikeout rate over 26 percent.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Avisail Garcia, Matt Davidson, Tim Anderson

Home Run Pick – Giancarlo Stanton

DFS MLB – Blue Jays at Orioles

Blue Jays Probable Starter – Ryan Borucki, LHP 

4.12 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and 14.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .276 average, .300 wOBA, 15.0 K rate, 22.4 fly ball rate and 30.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .290 average, .337 wOBA, 14.4 K rate, 36.8 fly ball rate and 33.8 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Orioles xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

Borucki continues to confound me every fifth day because you look at what he brings to the table and it’s very confusing how he’s getting it done. He’s leaning on the fastball a ton and he’s not striking out anyone. Yet, he’s given up just three homers so he hasn’t been worth attacking to a heavy extent so far in his career. The Orioles smashed a Blue Jays lefty last night and I suppose there’s a chance to do it again, but it wouldn’t appear that Borucki is a total gas can. Tim Beckham smashed a three run bomb last night and I have no issue going back to him or playing Jonathan Villar and Trey Mancini agains as well. We’ll see how the Orioles stack up against the rest of the offenses, but I think they’ll be more lineup fillers than a primary target. There’s a strong case to be made to use Borucki as a tournament option tonight since Baltimore is in the bottom five of all major categories against lefty pitching.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jonathan Villar

Secondary options – Tim Beckham, Trey Mancini

Orioles Probable Starter – Alex Cobb, RHP 

5.00 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 15.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .278 average, .330 wOBA, 18.0 K rate, 33.5 fly ball rate and 32.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .289 average, .356 wOBA, 13.1 K rate, 30.3 fly ball rate and 32.3 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Blue Jays xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

Toronto has disappointed for two days straight and as much as it scares me to say it, I don’t think Cobb is the worst choice for pitching tonight. His price still doesn’t reflect how well he’s been pitching as of late, logging eight quality starts in his last 10 outings. The strikeouts haven’t been anything to get pumped for, as they haven’t exceeded six. The ceiling might not be there but a start of around 35 points seems reasonable in this spot. I might be willing to take cheap stab at Danny Jansen or maybe Billy McKinney, but I don’t want to spend the salary on hitters like Kendrys Morales or even Justin Smoak tonight. I think you either roll the dice on Cobb or head elsewhere on this slate.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Danny Jansen, Billy McKinney

Home Run Pick – Tim Beckham goes yard back to back days

DFS MLB – Nationals at Phillies

Nationals Probable Starter – Gio Gonzalez, LHP 

4.35 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and 19.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .229 average, .276 wOBA, 25.6 K rate, 28.6 fly ball rate and 29.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .276 average, .347 wOBA, 17.7 K rate, 31.4 fly ball rate and 31.7 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Phillies xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

If Gonzalez was even remotely trustworthy, I’d really want to chase him in this spot. The Phillies rate very poorly against lefty pitching but Gonzalez has been so inconsistent it seems riskier than I’m willing to go. It’s fair to note that Gonzalez has owned the Phillies in past matchups. Through 157 at-bats, the Phils have a combined .172 average, .275 xwOBA and a whopping one home run off the bat of Cesar Hernandez. There are a couple of cheaper options that I can get on board with in Wilson Ramos and Roman Quinn. Ramos has a much longer track record of success and is only $2,700 and had a .308 ISO against the pitch mix while in Tampa. Quinn is barely above minimum and he carries a little bit of stolen base upside, even against lefties. He has three swipes in 17 at-bats to go along with his OPS over 1.000.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Wilson Ramos, Roman Quinn

Secondary Options – Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Santana

Phillies Probable Starter – Jake Arrieta, RHP 

3.37 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 17.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .267 average, .334 wOBA, 17.7 K rate, 30.4 fly ball rate and 28.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .222 average, .270 wOBA, 18.0 K rate, 25.2 fly ball rate and 26.1 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Nationals xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

This side of the game is going to be quick and painless to break down. With the new look lineup of the Nats, there’s only two lefties you’re going to be that excited to use and that’s Juan Soto and Bryce Harper. Soto has been incredible especially for his age but the pitch data does hold me up just a little with him. His ISO against righty sinkers is a tiny .071 and the xwOBA is .397. The xwOBA isn’t terrible but he doesn’t seem like a power threat. Harper on the other hand destroys righty sinkers with a massive .694 xwOBA and a .706 ISO. Those numbers are going to be hard to ignore tonight and a $4,400 Harper might be too cheap to pass up. Arrieta has been tougher at home but this isn’t a good individual spot versus Harper.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Bryce Harper

Secondary Options – Juan Soto, Adam Eaton

Home Run Pick – Bryce Harper

DFS MLB – Brewers at Reds

Brewers Probable Starter – Freddy Peralta, RHP 

4.02 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 30.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .229 average, .347 wOBA, 28.0 K rate, 44.9 fly ball rate and 44.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .106 average, .193 wOBA, 32.9 K rate, 55.4 fly ball rate and 37.7 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Reds xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

I think Peralta might be the best GPP pitcher on the slate tonight because the upside is immense. He just faced this Reds lineup and went off for 52 FanDuel points and I think that’s within the range of outcomes here tonight. The fly balls do concern you some considering where he’s pitching but that’s why you reserve him for GPP only. Peralta has been death to righty hitters so I wouldn’t go that direction. The thing with the Reds is they really don’t have a lot of power from the left side of the plate. Scott Schebler is the only lefty with an ISO over .200 against the fastball in a large sample size. Preston Tucker does have a .667 ISO but the sample with the Reds is small and it was a solid .233 when he played for the Braves. He’s an interesting flier if you need a very cheap outfielder.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Scott Schebler, Preston Tucker, Scooter Gennett

Reds Probable Starter – Matt Harvey, RHP 

4.77 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 18.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .255 average, .336 wOBA, 17.0 K rate, 43.1 fly ball rate and 40.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .265 average, .320 wOBA, 19.5 K rate, 31.0 fly ball rate and 36.5 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Brewers xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

Harvey has actually been pitching better for the most part and while he is still prone to some blowups along the way, he hasn’t allowed more than three earned in 10 of his last 12 starts. This is basically the same spot as last night for the Brewers in that we’re going to chase the lefties since Harvey has given up 12 homers to lefties this season. All of Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas, Travis Shaw and Eric Thames are all the same price and I’d rank them basically in that order. Yelich homered twice last night and he’s just on such a tear that it’s not hard to pay $4,000 for him on FanDuel. Moustakas and Shaw are kind of a coin flip and Thames has the most raw power but he’s been hitting terribly lately. They all have an ISO of at least .196 against the pitch mix for Harvey and they are attractive. I’m just not going to stack quite as heavily tonight.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Christian Yelich

Secondary Options – Mike Moustakas, Travis Shaw, Eric Thames

Home Run Pick – Travis Shaw

DFS MLB – Twins at Indians

Twins Probable Starter – Kohl Stewart, RHP

6.94 ERA, 2.14 WHIP and 15.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .321 average, .368 wOBA, 3.1 K rate, 18.5 fly ball rate and 44.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .391 average, .475 wOBA, 28.6 K rate, 46.7 fly ball rate and 26.7 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Indians xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

Well, we have hit the portion of the slate that is going to carry the most ownership. Through seven innings, Stewart has struck out three(!) percent of the lefty batters he’s faced. He also carries a 12.5 BB rate, good for a -9.4 K/BB percent which is going to spell trouble in every way possible against Cleveland. Jose Ramirez is my stone cold lock of the century…of the week(yes, I love Aqua Teen Hunger Force). He might be the most dangerous fade on the entire slate no matter what type of game you’re playing tonight. This is a full stack spot for the Indians and literally any of the big names are in play.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Yonder Alonso

Secondary Options – Edwin Encarnacion, Jason Kipnis

Indians Probable Starter – Adam Plutko, RHP 

5.09 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 17.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .333 average, .453 wOBA, 10.4 K rate, 49.4 fly ball rate and 40.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .165 average, .230 wOBA, 24.8 K rate, 59.3 fly ball rate and 32.1 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Twins xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

This spot could get really ugly for Plutko as well so we’re looking at a full game stack here. Plutko has been getting bombed by lefties and the Twins are very lefty heavy. The priority plays have to be Eddie Rosario and Jorge Polanco, provided he’s in the lineup. Max Kepler and Jake Cave would be next with a ISO of at least .179 against righty pitching and their power potential is a lot higher than normal. For one of the first times all season, Joe Mauer might even be in play since Plutko is so bad against lefties. You can use Miguel Sano as a contrarian option but Plutko has been reasonably solid against righty pitching. Past the huge fly ball rate, there’s really not much to pick on. I think Rosario might be a lock as well since he’s just $3,400.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler

Secondary Options – Joe Mauer, Jake Cave, Miguel Sano

Home Run Pick – Jose Ramirez

DFS MLB – Rays at Braves

Rays Probable Starter – Bullpen, Jalen Beeks long man 

We have a very limited track record for Beeks so far but Beeks is a lefty so I’m a little more willing to take some shots with Braves hitters tonight. Johan Camargo and Ozzie Albies are the first two I would look at due to the combo of cheaper price and they both are over a .200 ISO and .345 wOBA. They are also both under $3,500 so they’re a little easier to fit. Beeks has been pretty solid against lefty hitters so I’m probably not going to pay for Freddie Freeman. Even Ronald Acuna is a little steep and I’m not sure if I’d go with him since we know one of his at-bats won’t come against Beeks.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Johan Camargo, Ozzie Albies

Secondary Options – Ronald Acuna, Tyler Flowers/Kurt Suzuki

Braves Probable Starter – Sean Newcomb, LHP 

3.57 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 22.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .184 average, .295 wOBA, 27.1 K rate, 37.8 fly ball rate and 40.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .230 average, .294 wOBA, 20.9 K rate, 34.6 fly ball rate and 32.9 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Rays xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

Since there are no pitchers that hit five figures tonight, it makes it a little more fun to decide on a pitcher and Newcomb is definitely in the discussion. You would like to see a bigger strikeout rate from the Braves lefty but the Rays have the sixth highest strikeout rate in baseball against southpaws. While I don’t want to really use any Rays against Newcomb, I don’t really want to pitch him either because of the pricing around him. I would much rather play Sabathia at a slightly cheaper price and Newcomb doesn’t represent any significant savings on the highest priced pitcher on the slate. If you had to play a hitter versus Newcomb, C.J. Cron would be my favorite with a .215 ISO and a .368 wOBA against southpaw pitching.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – C.J. Cron

Home Run Pick – Ozzie Albies

DFS MLB – Dodgers at Rangers

Dodgers Probable Starter – Alex Wood, LHP 

3.60 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 21.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .263 average, .261 wOBA, 23.7 K rate, 19.2 fly ball rate and 29.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .233 average, .295 wOBA, 20.3 K rate, 32.9 fly ball rate and 42.4 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Rangers xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

I really don’t mind this spot for Wood, although I don’t think it’s cash safe. It really depends on how much weight you put into the pitch data because the Rangers rate very poorly against the mix that Wood throws. The leader in xwOBA is Adrian Beltre at .309 and the ISO leaders from righties are Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ronald Guzman. Everyone else is under .200 which is not generally what we chase. Can the Texas lineup get the job done in this spot? Absolutely and it’s not like the hitting environment is going to help Wood. Still, there’s not a lot of hitters that I really want from this side. He has yet to give up a homer to lefties so even though Joey Gallo has a massive ISO against lefties, he’s not in play for me tonight.

Rangers Probable Starter – Mike Minor, LHP 

4.40 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 19.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .239 average, .298 wOBA, 21.4 K rate, 32.8 fly ball rate and 37.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .238 average, .316 wOBA, 19.5 K rate, 46.9 fly ball rate and 38.9 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Dodgers xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

It’s not like Minor has been terrible this year but the Dodgers are such a good lineup it’s hard not to be interested tonight. They posted eight runs last night but they were a small letdown as far as who I really wanted to play. Yasmani Grandal and Max Muncy were fairly quiet and I wouldn’t use them tonight. I’m heading to the righties and I think Manny Machado and Matt Kemp are the two priorities tonight. Kemp is down to $3,000 on FanDuel and has a huge .556 xwOBA and a .386 ISO versus the main pitch from Minor. I would also include Justin Turner and Brian Dozier in the mix here and have no issue going right back to the well with a Dodgers stack, just on the right side of the plate instead of the lefties tonight.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Manny Machado, Matt Kemp, Justin Turner

Secondary Options – Brian Dozier, Kike Hernadez, Chris Taylor

Home Run Pick – Matt Kemp and Manny Machado

DFS MLB – Pirates at Cardinals

Pirates Probable Starter – Trevor Williams, RHP 

3.44 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 16.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .229 average, .289 wOBA, 12.0 K rate, 38.5 fly ball rate and 28.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .230 average, .296 wOBA, 20.1 K rate, 39.8 fly ball rate and 32.8 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Cardinals xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

This is potentially the grossest game on the slate. From this side, it’s Matt Carpenter or bust. Williams has continued to pitch well from a real life perspective but has been awful to use for fantasy. His last seven starts has yielded a total of four earned runs but he’s also struck out 24 batters in 41 innings. There’s just no way you can use him with such a limited upside. Carpenter has cooled off a little bit but that was to be expected when he was bringing doom upon every pitcher in the majors. He has owned Williams in their careers through 20 plate appearances with a .438 average, 1.063 slug, .604 xwOBA and three home runs.

Cardinals Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Options – None

Cardinals Probable Starter – Miles Mikolas, RHP 

2.94 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 17.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .281 average, .314 wOBA, 15.6 K rate, 29.3 fly ball rate and 36.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .191 average, .224 wOBA, 19.1 K rate, 24.9 fly ball rate and 29.9 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix

Mikolas has been pretty solid in his return to the majors this season and his metrics support everything. He’s worse versus lefty hitters but he gives up so little power that seems like a bad bet to take. There’s also nothing to like on the pitch data because Mikolas throws nothing over 32 percent this year. He’s reliant on a lot of movement instead of velocity and there’s almost no chance that he gets beat up. He’s just like Williams in that he doesn’t strike out enough hitters to use, especially against the Pirates and their low strikeout rate.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Home Run Pick – Matt Carpenter

DFS MLB – Diamondbacks at Giants

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Zack Godley, RHP 

4.59 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 24.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .261 average, .332 wOBA, 21.4 K rate, 23.3 fly ball rate and 37.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .250 average, .310 wOBA, 26.8 K rate, 32.4 fly ball rate and 37.9 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Giants xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

This is another game that is pretty easy to break down because there are really no hitters that I want a piece of. Godley has been up and down this year and he’s been a mixed bag lately. He’s faced the Giants twice within the last couple months and the results have not been good. He logged a game of 9 and -2 points in this two starts but I think it’s more variance than anything else. The Giants strikeout at the seventh highest rate in baseball so Godley may not be the safest play but he’s got some big upside tonight in a friendly pitching park.

Giants Hitters to Target

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford

Giants Probable Starter – Dereck Rodriguez, RHP 

2.30 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 20.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .208 average, .275 wOBA, 17.5 K rate, 36.1 fly ball rate and 45.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .198 average, .250 wOBA, 22.6 K rate, 31.9 fly ball rate and 37.7 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Diamondbacks xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

I’m not sure Rodriguez has the same upside for tournaments but I think he might be safer than Godley in cash games and there’s a decent chance he’s one of the highest owned pitchers on the slate. I can’t really blame anyone for playing him as Arizona carries the eighth highest rate in the majors and are no better than 20th in any offensive category. Rodriguez isn’t this good but I don’t think Arizona is the team that brings him back to Earth. If you’re not playing pitchers here, you can maybe stack the Giants as a contrarian option in case Godley blows up. Otherwise there isn’t much fantasy goodness here.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Paul Goldschmidt, David Peralta

Home Run Pick – None

DFS MLB – Sample FanDuel Lineup

P – CC Sabathia 

C/1B – Kurt Suzuki 

2B – Devon Travis 

3B – Jose Ramirez 

SS – Manny Machado

OF – Roman Quinn, Matt Kemp, Bryce Harper 

Utility – Eddie Rosario 

This is kind of a weird lineup for me. I don’t know if I’ve ever played Sabathia this year but this is a perfect spot for him, especially given his current form. I’m willing to play either Suzuki or Tyler Flowers and it’s an easy pivot since they’re the same price. Travis isn’t my favorite option but Cobb is a little reverse splits and there’s worse options as a last man in the lineup. We grabbed another punt option in Quinn but that also allows us to get up to the trio of Harper, Machado and Ramirez. Rosario and Kemp fit very nicely in with everything else we have going.

The Core – Jose Ramirez, Eddie Rosario, Roman Quinn

Pitching to Consider 

High End – Dereck Rodriguez, Zack Godley

Mid-Range – CC Sabathia, Freddy Peralta, Alex Wood, Sean Newcomb

Punts – Ryan Borucki, Alex Cobb

Stacks to Consider – Indians/Twins game stack, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, San Francisco Giants

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.