NFL Fantasy Check Down: Preseason Closure Notes for the AFC West

“Dress Rehearsal” Week 3 of the NFL Preseason offers fantasy owners a brief, last-minute fantasy scouting session for their upcoming drafts (or the first batch of waiver wire action for those who already completed their drafts). We’re back with team by team, fantasy football notes based on what see saw throughout the preseason in the AFC West.

NFL Fantasy Check Down: Preseason Closure Notes for the AFC West

NFL Fantasy Check Down – Denver Broncos

2018 should be a night and day difference in regards to fantasy production in Denver. I’m not saying they’re going to set the world on fire, but there is a lot for fantasy owners to like with this revamped, Denver offense.

First off, there is finally a competent quarterback under center in Case Keenum. Keenum is coming off a career year, and if you reviewed my piece last week on Fantasy Football Value Picks, you know that I’m touting the new fantasy relationship between Case and two-time pro-bowler, Emmanuel Sanders. In their short time together on the field this preseason, Keenum and Sanders have shown they are going to have great chemistry in 2018.

Sanders has played limited snaps in two preseason games this summer, but he has already seen a team leading 15 targets. He hauled in 7 of those 15 passes for a total of 88 yards. Those numbers don’t jump off the page by any means, but I love seeing him getting a big-time target share this early.

Sanders also took a 27-yard end-around to the house last Friday night against Washington. To beat a dead horse: Emmanuel Sanders is going to be heavily involved in the Denver offense under new Offensive Coordinator, Bill Musgrave.

Demaryius Thomas hasn’t stuck out at all this preseason, but that doesn’t change the fact he can be an explosive offensive weapon, and should be drafted as such in fantasy drafts. The one receiver who lines up on the outside that has grasped my attention, is Courtland Sutton. Sutton is a very talented rookie who has the ability to be an elite NFL receiver someday in the future.

The Broncos drafted the SMU two-sport athlete [basketball] early in the second round and have already showed confidence in him as they’ve had him line up with the first stringers a handful of times this preseason. Sutton has only received 7 targets this preseason, but he has caught 5 of them for 64 yards and a touchdown. It is going to be tough for Sutton to carve out a prominent role while Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas are on the field, but his big body and athleticism could make him a lethal red-zone weapon.

If we glance back at the Fantasy Pros Average Draft Position (half point PPR), it seems as if the fantasy community has already decided Royce Freeman is the running back to own in Denver. He is going almost 100 picks earlier in drafts (46.5 ADP) than his counterpart, Devontae Booker (136 ADP).

I can see why fantasy owners want to forget about Booker, he has a rather boring 3.86 yards per carry in his two-year career and a light history of fumble issues. He hasn’t done much in the preseason, but he is splitting time with Freeman on the first string.

Now that Derrius Guice is out for the season, Royce Freeman is the second rookie running back coming off the boards, only behind Saquon Barkley. Everything Freeman has done thus far in the preseason justifies that draft spot.

In my opinion, Royce has had the most productive preseason of all the rookie running backs. He has scored a touchdown in all three games, and rushed for 84 yards on 15 carries. Assuming the Broncos open up with a timeshare between Freeman and Booker, Booker is certainly going to have made the most with his carries/receptions out of the backfield. Otherwise, Freeman is going to run away with the job (no pun intended).

Let’s go back to talking about Bill Musgrave. Musgrave is awfully familiar with taking over one of the leagues worst offenses – he did just that when taking the Offensive Coordinator job at Oakland in 2015. When he [Musgrave] arrived in Oakland at the beginning of the 2015 season, the Raiders were coming off of a brutal offensive performance the year prior, finishing dead last in offensive yards per game and second to last in offensive points per game.

Jeff Essary from MileHighReport.com mentioned Musgraves’ success in Oakland when stating:

“Bill Musgrave was instrumental in the Oakland Raiders offensive turn around over the last two years as their offensive coordinator, and was the main reason Derek Carr developed and improved the way he did.”

Musgrave’s offensive mind worked magic in Oakland after just two quick years. The Raiders finished the 2016 season in the top-10 for both of those categories. I’m going to trust that history repeats itself and Bill Musgrave gets the Denver offense back into the fantasy relevance conversation.

Denver Broncos 2018 Fantasy Assets:

• Emmanuel Sanders (mid-tier WR2, expect big numbers in PPR)
• Demaryius Thomas (WR2 in standard leagues, slight bump down in PPR)
• Royce Freeman (RB2 to start, high upside)
• Case Keenum (QB3, high floor, limited ceiling, safe QB2 in 2QB leagues)
• Devonate Booker (low-end RB3/flex)
• Courtland Sutton (WR4, huge upside potential)
• Jake Butt (potential stash in dynasty leagues)

NFL Fantasy Check Down – Kansas City Chiefs

Last season, the ultimate snag on the waiver wire or late round draft pick was Kareem Hunt. There was a lot of hype about Spencer Ware heading into the 2017 season, but due to an early season-ending injury to Ware, third round pick Kareem Hunt was the next man up. He certainly did not disappoint.

Kareem Hunt finished as the #4 overall running back in half point ppr leagues according to Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Leaders in 2017. I highly doubt that he is that productive again in 2018, but he is absolutely back in the RB1 conversation. He has totaled 70 all-purpose yards and one touchdown in his limited action in the preseason. Hunt has a very secure job as the three-down back in Kansas City, so there is no need to discuss him further.

Tyreek Hill continues where he left off in 2017,putting up big numbers this preseason. He has already posted 14 catches with 182 receiving yards and a touchdown. It looks like he has a nice rhythm going with first year starter, Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes looks like he is ready to take on the role as QB1 in Kansas City. He has a cannon for an arm and also looks to scramble. He should have plenty of upside for fantasy owners.

Travis Kelce is steadily being drafted as the second tight end off the board and rightfully so. He is going to have a major role in this offense, just like he did last season. Personally, I wouldn’t touch him at his average draft position of 32, but he is going to be one of the best tight ends in fantasy, without a doubt.

Alex Smith LOVED to target Travis Kelce and he is no longer with the Chiefs. I know Mahomes is going to look for him, but with the signing of Sammy Watkins, there are a lot of other mouths to feed in that offense. I just don’t see Kelce having the same type of fantasy production he had with Alex Smith last season. With all of the other great players being drafted near Kelce’s ADP, I’m going to pass on drafting him.

Sammy Watkins hasn’t shown anything worth noting in the 2018 preseason, but the upside is hard to ignore. If Watkins can finally stay on the field, expect him to be heavily involved in a high scoring offense.

Kansas City Chiefs 2018 Fantasy Assets:

• Kareem Hunt (mid-tier RB1)
• Travis Kelce (TE1)
• Patrick Mahomes (QB2, high upside)
• Sammy Watkins (WR2, slight bump down in PPR)
• Spencer Ware (handcuff to Kareem Hunt)
• Chris Conley (waiver wire target if and when Watkins gets injured)

NFL Fantasy Check Down – Los Angeles Chargers

When I was doing my way-too-early Best Ball formatted drafts in the beginning of May, I was jumping all over Chargers’ tight end, Hunter Henry. Unfortunately for me, Henry tore his ACL later on that month. The tight end position was already incredibly thing as is heading into 2018, but the loss of Hunter Henry made it even worse.

Does the loss of Henry open things up for second year wide-out, Mike Williams? I’m thinking that is a great possibility. The 6’4″ former Clemson standout has had a rather quiet preseason, but he did show his ability to go up and get the ball in the end-zone. His touchdown catch in week 2 of the preseason was quite impressive.

I’m not going to bank on Mike Williams being a reliable fantasy wide receiver in 2018, but he is certainly worth a look late in drafts. The Chargers are going to need some big-bodied targets in the red-zone to fill in while Hunter Henry is out, Williams can be that guy.

Melvin Gordon, Phil Rivers, and Keenan Allen are going to be the same players they were last season for fantasy owners. They were studs last season, so continue to have confidence in those three. Glancing back at the Fantasy Pros Average Draft Position board, fantasy owners can get a nice price on Phil Rivers in the ninth round.

Gordon had a career high in receptions last season and 58, and I’m projecting that number to be north of 65 in 2018. Give Gordon a bump up in PPR formats, even though he is already being drafted in the first round. Although I mentioned the potential upside in Mike Williams, the safe bet is that Phil is just going to force-feed Keenan Allen (even more than he did last year).

According to Pro Football Reference’s 2017 Receiving Stats, Keenan Allen finished at #5 in total targets at 159. If we take Hunter Henry out of the picture, I’m thinking that target number for Allen is going to rise in 2018. That should be music to the ears of fantasy owners as obviously, the more targets a player gets, the more likely they are to produce fantasy points.

Kansas City Chiefs 2018 Fantasy Assets:

• Melvin Gordon (RB1 in all formats)
• Keenan Allen (WR1 in all formats)
• Phil Rivers (low-end QB1)
• Mike Williams (WR4, WR3/flex upside)
• Tyrell Williams (low-end WR3)
• Austin Ekeler (handcuff to Melvin Gordon)

NFL Fantasy Check Down – Oakland Raiders

I’d love to go into detail on the coaching tendencies the Raiders’ new Head Coach, Jon Gruden had when he was formerly a coach in the NFL, but I don’t think there is much value to that. It has been almost a decade since Gruden last coached in the NFL. The game has changed in that time, and I’m sure Gruden’s scheme has as well.

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From what I’ve seen in the preseason, it looks like Gruden and the Raiders are going to run a west-coast styled offense (which Gruden ran when he previously coached in the NFL). Mark Bullock’s from The Washington Post said it best back on January 9th in an article titled, What to expect from Jon Gruden’s offense in his return to the Raiders:

“Gruden’s return to the NFL will undoubtedly be in the national spotlight for most of the 2018 season. While his traditional West Coast offense is fairly standard, it will be very interesting to see how much he adapts it to fit the modern game and how open he is to adding in different philosophies from the college game.”

It certainly will be interesting to see how Gruden adapts to the modern NFL game. The Raiders offense didn’t show us a whole lot in the preseason. The have only averaged a total of 14.7 points per game through three games. I’d love to think they’re going to score more than that in the regular season, but I haven’t fell in love with any Raider for the upcoming fantasy season.

Derek Carr barely played in the 2018 preseason, but we know he is the going to the QB1 for Gruden.  Amari Cooper has only seen one target, but he did catch it for a gain of 49 yards. Cooper was a letdown for fantasy owners in 2017, but you have to think Gruden finds a way to get him highly involved in the Raiders’ passing attack in 2018.

I’m not quite sure I like the current ADP for Amari Cooper, but if he finds a way to play up to his potential, he should be able to outperform that early third round pick price-tag in 2018 fantasy drafts.

As for the running game, we didn’t really get to see any Marshawn Lynch in the preseason. Lynch wasn’t that special last season, and I doubt he is going to be worth anything more than a low-end RB2 again this season. I’m simply avoiding Raider running backs in all of my drafts. If you find yourself needing a running back in the sixth round, Marshawn isn’t an awful pick.

I did go through some of Gruden’s years at Tampa Bay to see if anything sticks out for usage at the tight end position, and there really isn’t anything worth noting. It appears Jared Cook is going to be the starting tight end again, but that shouldn’t mean anything for fantasy owners. Cook is on the wrong side of 30, and if you refer back to Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Leaders, he has never finished in the top-10 for tight ends in their six years of data.

I am not targeting many Raiders in my drafts, if any. You can get a nice price on Derek Carr, who should be a useful fantasy quarterback this season, and maybe have faith in an Amari Cooper breakout season…but that is about it.

Oakland Raiders 2018 Fantasy Assets:

• Amari Cooper (WR2, WR1 upside)
• Marshawn Lynch (low-end RB2, slight bump down in PPR)
• Derek Carr (QB2)
• Jared Cook (TE2)
• Doug Martin (handcuff to Marshawn Lynch)

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