DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Thursday, August 30

Welcome in to the Thursday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have an eight game slate ahead of us this evening so let’s jump in!

So, it’s a good thing when the player you paid $2,100 for is the best player that have all night right? No? That about sums up my night last night as Roman Quinn destroyed his (and a lot of others) price tag with 27 FanDuel points. Other than that it was just one of those DFS MLB nights. We have another solid slate tonight so let’s bounce back!

DFS MLB – Tigers at Yankees

Tigers Probable Starter – Francisco Liriano, LHP 

4.82 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 17.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .138 average, .214 wOBA, 22.2 K rate, 30.5 fly ball rate and 26.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .280 average, .380 wOBA, 16.8 K rate, 32.8 fly ball rate and 34.4 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Yankees xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

I feel like a broken record but I’m basically targeting a lot of the same Yankees tonight. Liriano is a sinker/slider pitcher at this point in his career and the Yankees righties do pretty well against those pitches. Gleyber Torres has the edge via the pitch data at a .533 ISO and a .455 xwOBA but Giancarlo Stanton has the advantage on the seasonal numbers at a 1.078 OPS, .336 ISO and a .443 wOBA. Liriano has given up 15 bombs to righties and he’s going to face at least four with a .231 ISO and three are over .270 with Miguel Andujar going Torres and Stanton. This is the most excited I’ve been to use the Yankees bats in the past few nights.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Aaron Hicks

Secondary Options – Luke Voit

Yankees Probable Starter – J.A. Happ, LHP 

3.80 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 27.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .159 average, .223 wOBA, 26.4 K rate, 29.5 fly ball rate and 28.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .234 average, .308 wOBA, 27.4 K rate, 44.9 fly ball rate and 30.8 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Tigers xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

Happ is a talented pitcher but there is a home run concern here. He’s made four starts in Yankee Stadium and has given up four home runs, while giving up 19 to righties this season. I think there’s definitely a couple Tigers here to consider and Nicholas Casellanos has to be the first man on the list. He’s crushed lefties all year with an OPS of 1.091, an ISO of .225 and a wOBA of .460. He also hits lefty fastballs well with an ISO of .265 versus the pitch. Jose Iglesias may not be a major home run threat but he’s always a reasonable price and he’s good against lefties with a .369 wOBA and a .200 ISO versus the fastball. You can consider Jeimer Candelario as well but it’s just important to remember the odds of a Happ blow up start aren’t that great.

Tigers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nicholas Castellanos, Jose Iglesias

Secondary Options – Jeimer Candelario

Home Run Pick – Miguel Andujar

DFS MLB – Pirates at Cardinals

Pirates Probable Starter – Joe Musgrove, RHP 

3.56 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 19.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .274 average, .336 wOBA, 15.2 K rate, 28.6 fly ball rate and 33.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .227 average, .263 wOBA, 22.2 K rate, 39.7 fly ball rate and 33.8 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix

Musgrove has been a pretty odd pitcher so far this year. I assumed his pitch mix would be heavy sinker and fastball but there’s nothing over 33 percent to lefties, which is where we want to attack. Even though he’s been worse to lefty hitters, he hasn’t been a gas can either. We all know how good Matt Carpenter has been but I’m not sure I’m going to chase him tonight. I do have some respect for Musgrove to the point of he doesn’t always get beat up. The especially weird part is his lefty numbers have been fueled by getting shelled at home. On the road, he’s only giving up a .278 wOBA to lefty hitting and that’s part of the reason I don’t think Carpenter is going to be worth the price tag. It’s not that I think he’ll have a bad game but it’s just a matter of price. I don’t hate Musgrove but I don’t think he has massive upside.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Matt Carpenter

Cardinals Probable Starter – John Gant, RHP 

3.56 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 19.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .221 average, .300 wOBA, 19.0 K rate, 41.0 fly ball rate and 57.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .191 average, .248 wOBA, 20.8 K rate, 28.9 fly ball rate and 31.9 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Pirates xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

I’m far more interested on the offense on this side of theme since Gant is giving up so much hard contact and fly balls to the lefties. Eventually, that is going to catch up with him. When he’s at home, Gant has racked up an xFIP and FIP over 5.00 and the HR/9 is 1.61 so the potential for hitters like Gregory Polanco, Adam Frazier, Corey Dickerson and Josh Bell seem fairly high tonight. I like Polanco and Frazier the best and Polanco owns the best ISO versus the pitch data at .279 and Frazier is .195. Frazier also only strikes out 13 percent of the time so you can feel relatively comfortable he’ll get the ball in play. The Pirates offense isn’t the most consistent but they’re in a good spot tonight for sure.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Gregory Polanco, Adam Frazier

Secondary Options – Corey Dickerson, Josh Bell

Home Run Pick – Adam Frazier

DFS MLB – Cubs at Braves

Cubs Probable Starter – Mike Montgomery, LHP 

3.62 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 14.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .239 average, .292 wOBA, 18.0 K rate, 23.5 fly ball rate and 29.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .271 average, .306 wOBA, 13.0 K rate, 27.5 fly ball rate and 31.5 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix

It’s a bit of an odd day for pitch data because there are a lot of pitchers that don’t throw the same pitch over and over. Montgomery is one of them, as he throws nothing over 32 percent to righties which would be my preferred side to attack with. Since it’s a lefty pitcher, we have options but I’m not sure how excited I am to go full blown Braves tonight. Montgomery isn’t exciting for fantasy but he gets the job done because over the course of 70 innings, he’s only given up five home runs. I typically like the catching tandem of Kurt Suzuki or Tyler Flowers but I might leave them to the side tonight. I think the only three would be Ronald Acuna, Johan Camargo and Ozzie Albies. Acuna has the team lead in ISO versus lefty pitching so he would be my favorite, although he is expensive. Camargo and Albies are very similar and it’s hard to pick between them.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Ronald Acuna

Secondary Options – Johan Camargo, Ozzie Albies

Braves Probable Starter – TBD

The Braves should be starting Mike Foltynewicz today but it also hasn’t been officially announced. If it is indeed Foltynewicz, it’s a very easy game to breakdown. He’s a very good pitcher and has been pitching well to boot. I don’t want to mess with any Cubs hitters against him but the catch is I don’t want to use Folty either unless it’s just a GPP play to be different. He’s priced to high against a good offense when Justin Verlander is only $600 more. This would be a steer clear spot for me tonight.

Cubs Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Anthony Rizzo

Home Run Pick – Ronald Acuna

DFS MLB – Red Sox at White Sox

Red Sox Probable Starter – Rick Porcello, RHP 

4.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 23.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .229 average, .307 wOBA, 26.9 K rate, 41.6 fly ball rate and 39.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .241 average, .292 wOBA, 21.1 K rate, 30.9 fly ball rate and 27.4 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix

While Porcello does throw his sinker about 42 percent to righties, they’re not the handedness I usually play against Porcello.  No other pitch is over 27 percent and what’s really interesting is Porcello raises his strikeout rate to lefties to over 30 percent on the road. That makes Porcello standout more because the White Sox already lead the league in strikeout percentage. If you’re a righty and can strikeout lefties, you have a pretty good chance at a great start. Daniel Palka and Yoan Moncada are the hitters to fear from the left side of the plate and those guys strike out a third of the time. I would only use Porcello as a GPP option but the ceiling is quite high. I’m pretty lukewarm with Chicago hitters.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Daniel Palka, Yoan Moncada, Yolmer Sanchez

White Sox Probable Starter – Lucas Giolito, RHP 

5.85 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 16.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .255 average, .355 wOBA, 13.2 K rate, 42.5 fly ball rate and 34.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .229 average, .330 wOBA, 19.2 K rate, 36.2 fly ball rate and 31.7 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Red Sox xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

Giolito has been flat out blasted at home with an ERA over 8.00 and the xFIP and FIPs back that up since they’re both over 6.00 at home. He throws the fastball around 45 percent of the time and Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez destroy that pitch and righty pitching in general. Xander Bogaerts joins them with an ISO over .300 against righty fastballs and Giolito gives up a 1.80 HR/9 to righties at home, his biggest number in any split. It’s easy to say that a full Red Sox stack is in play today and I would prioritize the three righties and then go with Andrew Benintendi and Mitch Moreland next. This is going to be a tough road for Giolito tonight.

Red Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts

Secondary Options – Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland

Home Run Pick – Xander Bogaerts

DFS MLB – Angels at Astros

Angels Probable Starter – Andrew Heaney, LHP 

4.25 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 22.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .229 average, .235 wOBA, 24.4 K rate, 15.8 fly ball rate and 30.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .245 average, .324 wOBA, 22.1 K rate, 40.4 fly ball rate and 41.5 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Astros xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

Sometimes we throw out career numbers that a pitcher has against a certain team and it’s worth noting that Heaney has seen some success versus the Astros lineup. He’s faced them for 99 plate appearances and only has given up two homers, a .217 average and a .289 xwOBA. I also don’t think those are indicative about what’s going to happen tonight because Houston is healthy and the offense has been scoring some runs lately. It’s another night where I love the top of the order with Alex Bregman and George Springer are over a .200 ISO and would be my first pick. Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa would be in a second their for me since their ISO on the season is under 1.40 for both players. What’s interesting is all of these players have a pretty poor ISO against the pitch mix as all four of them are at .129 or less. If that’s something you put the full weight in, I’d leave out the Astros stack tonight.

Astros Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Alex Bregman, George Springer

Secondary Options – Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Evan Gattis

Astros Probable Starter – Justin Verlander, RHP 

2.72 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 33.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .190 average, .271 wOBA, 38.4 K rate, 53.9 fly ball rate and 27.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH –  .220 average, .279 wOBA, 28.9 K rate, 52.0 fly ball rate and 30.7 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Angels xwOBA and ISO Leaders

There’s not much here for the Angels hitters. Mike Trout is always on my radar when I think nobody will play him and that’s definitely the case tonight. If for some reason Verlander struggles, Trout could have a giant game. It’s only 10 at-bats but Shohei Ohtani has good BvP with a .300 average, .577 xwOBA and one home run. He’s also hit one off of Corey Kluber, Mike Clevinger, Luis Severino and obviously Verlander himself so he seems to rise up to good pitchers now and again. It’s still hard to not believe in Verlander in this spot tonight.

Angels Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Mike Trout

Home Run Pick – Alex Bregman

DFS MLB – Mariners at A’s

Mariners Probable Starter – Wade LeBlanc, LHP 

3.92 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 19.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .267 average, .327 wOBA, 21.9 K rate, 44.4 fly ball rate and 31.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .237 average, .299 wOBA, 19.1 K rate, 41.5 fly ball rate and 31.8 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix

This isn’t the worst spot for the A’s but it’s not a smash spot either. LeBlanc has been a bit more hit and miss lately and while the splits would appear to favor the lefties, the home runs are 15-6 in favor of righty hitters. That’s where I’m going to take my chances and there’s some definitive power from that side of the plate. Mark Canha and Chad Pinder are always popular versus a lefty but I’ll always side with Canha who has the higher ISO, wOBA and OPS. In fact, he leads the team in those categories among regular hitters. Khris Davis is next and he might wind up leading the majors in home runs at the rate he’s going. You don’t have much of a choice but to love him against a fly ball pitcher who gives up a 1.41 HR/9. That rate is a little higher to lefties so I don’t think Matt Olson is that bad of a play.

A’s Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mark Canha, Khris Davis, Matt Chapman

Secondary Options – Matt Olson, Chad Pinder

A’s Probable Starter – Frankie Montas, RHP 

3.75 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 15.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .296 average, .372 wOBA, 12.8 K rate, 35.4 fly ball rate and 49.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .272 average, .308 wOBA, 18.4 K rate, 26.7 fly ball rate and 45.1 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Mariners xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

It seems pretty clear that Montas is nothing special but he hasn’t been giving up a lot of home runs, with just a total of three so far this year. I want to lean towards the lefties here and even though Robinson Cano hasn’t hit for power this season, he’s still a good hitter and Montas can’t strike out lefty hitters. I even kind of like Dee Gordon for the same reasons and A’s catcher Jonathan Lucroy does’t scare me off from a stolen base perspective. A Seattle stack that includes Mitch Haniger and Nelson Cruz would be a very interesting against the grain option if Mntas gets knocked around.

Mariners Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Robinson Cano, Dee Gordon

Secondary Options – Denard Span, Kyle Seager, Mitch Haniger, Nelson Cruz

Home Run Pick – Khris Davis, Robinson Cano

DFS MLB – Diamondbacks at Dodgers

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Robbie Ray, LHP 

4.73 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 29.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .159 average, .247 wOBA, 34.4 K rate, 32.7 fly ball rate and 39.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .267 average, .363 wOBA, 28.2 K rate, 42.8 fly ball rate and 43.8 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Dodgers xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

This game is being written after the podcast recorded and I’m starting to wonder if we maybe sold the Dodgers a little short. Ray’s home/road splits have continued this year and he’s giving up a .330 average, .452 wOBA, 10 of his 11 home runs which has equated to a 3.25 HR/9 ratio against righties. I might be a little heavier on the Dodgers than I led everyone to believe on the pod and I’m looking at Justin Turner, Manny Machado, Matt Kemp in GPP and Brian Dozier. All of these players have good walk rates, which is a big issue for Ray. All of those hitters hit for power and Ray better bring the strikeout upside if he wants to get through this matchup.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Manny Machado, Justin Turner, Brian Dozier

Secondary Options – Kike Hernandez, Matt Kemp

Dodgers Probable Starter – Rich Hill, LHP 

3.50 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 25.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .187 average, .276 wOBA, 19.3 K rate, 44.3 fly ball rate and 32.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .239 average, .320 wOBA, 28.3 K rate, 38.6 fly ball rate and 48.7 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Diamondbacks xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

It hasn’t been the most advisable course of action to target Hill lately as he’s he’s been mostly lights out. He was on the disabled list for a while and since he’s come back, he’s been pitching up to his talent level. He’s basically a two pitch pitcher at this point with just a fastball and curveball and the one hitter that I really think could do well in this spot is Paul Goldschmidt. Not only has he hit Hill for a .438 average and a .499 xwOBA with two homers in 16 at-bats, he smokes the pitch mix with a .554 xwOBA and a .326 ISO. I don’t think many players will go that route tonight and I probably wouldn’t try a full Diamondbacks stack tonight. I don’t think I want to roll with Hill given some of the other options.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Paul Goldschmidt

Secondary Options – A.J. Pollock, Nick Ahmed

Home Run Pick – Paul Goldschmidt

DFS MLB – Rockies at Padres

Rockies Probable Starter – German Marquez, RHP 

3.50 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 25.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .187 average, .276 wOBA, 19.3 K rate, 44.3 fly ball rate and 32.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .239 average, .320 wOBA, 28.3 K rate, 38.6 fly ball rate and 48.7 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Padres xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

I have a hard time paying up for Verlander against the Angels when I can just play Marquez in San Diego. He’s been totally lights out lately and has been striking out everyone in sight. Now he gets to travel to a better park and faces off against the best possible strikeout matchup in baseball. I don’t want any Padres hitters here and Marquez is not priced correctly in this spot.

Padres Hitters to Target

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Padres Probable Starter – Eric Lauer, LHP

5.30 ERA, 1.71 WHIP and 18.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .325 average, .395 wOBA, 11.2 K rate, 35.4 fly ball rate and 37.1 hard hit rate

vs RHH – .305 average, .366 wOBA, 21.0 K rate, 33.7 fly ball rate and 40.2 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Rockies xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

I’m not concerned at all that this game isn’t in Colorado and I still want a Rockie or two in this game. Nolan Arenado is always the first stop against a lefty It’s not hard to see why with his 1.304 OPS, .420 ISO and .528 wOBA overall and Lauer leans on his fastball which plays right into what Arenado hits well with a .469 ISO and a .459 xwOBA. Trevor Story is right there with Arenado as he has an OPS over 1.000, an ISO over .300 and a wOBA over .400. Seeing as how Lauer has been reverse splits, I love Charlie Blackmon as well. This three man stack could be a great late night hammer with Marquez on the other side.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon

Secondary Options – DJ LeMahieu, Ian Desmond

Home Run Pick – Nolan Arenado

DFS MLB – Sample FanDuel Lineup

P – German Marquez

C/1B – Mitch Moreland

2B – Brian Dozier 

3B – Nolan Arenado

SS – Trevor Story 

OF – Charlie Blackmon, Dee Gordon, Adam Frazier 

Utility – Chad Pinder 

This is likely not the lineup that I would not roll with in cash but I wanted to see if I could build a legitimate lineup with the Rockies stack. This doesn’t look too bad and it helps that Pinder is just $2,200 even though I like Canha better normally. Gordon and Frazier fit in nicely and they might not have a lot of power upside but should be putting balls in play all night. Dozier and Moreland are pretty solid one-offs to go with everything else.

The Core – German Marquez, Nolan Arenado, Dee Gordon

Pitching to Consider 

High End – Justin Verlander, J.A. Happ

Mid-Range – German Marquez, Rick Porcello, Joe Musgrove

Punt – Andrew Heaney(crazy GPP only)

Stacks to Consider – Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, A’s/Mariners game stack

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.