NFL Fantasy Check Down: Preseason Fantasy Football Notes for the AFC South
As we all know, week 3 of the NFL Preseason offers fantasy owners a brief, last-minute fantasy scouting session for their upcoming drafts (or the first batch of waiver wire action for those who already completed their drafts). Here are some team by team, fantasy football notes based on what we’ve seen this preseason. Let’s take some time to focus on the AFC South.
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NFL Fantasy Check Down: Preseason Fantasy Football Notes for the AFC South
Fantasy Football Notes – Houston Texans
There is not a whole lot to like about the Texans offense from a fantasy perspective outside of Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins. We know how good DeAndre Hopkins is, so we don’t need to say a whole lot about him. Lock him in as a high-end WR1 for 2018.
Deshaun Watson was insane for fantasy owners prior to his injury that cost him the rest of the 2017 season. He threw for 19 touchdowns in only seven games. Even if that rate regresses, you have to like Watson as QB1 heading into 2018. Based on the Fantasy Pros Average Draft Position, Deshaun Watson is being selected as the second quarterback off of the board.
Although I do like the dual threat upside that Watson brings to the table, I do not like him at QB2. If we look at the Roto Baller’s Offensive Line Power Rankings, Houston ranks dead last. That alone is enough for me to pass on Watson’s current price tag (third round) and wait for guys like Cam Newton, Drew Brees, or Andrew Luck.
Watson hasn’t done a whole lot in the preseason, but he looks like he is fully healed from the knee injury and ready for the season to start. I just don’t see him having the type of year he had last season, but he is absolutely in the QB1 conversation.
A lot of people say, “if you like Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins, then you have to like Will Fuller.” Why? I surely do not like Will Fuller for fantasy. Does he have big-play ability? Absolutely he does, he had some great fantasy outputs in 2017 during the four game stretch from week four through week eight. Fuller’s fantasy production is extremely touchdown dependent. For that, I am out.
After week eight, Fuller disappeared and hurt a lot of fantasy owners who had faith and kept him in their lineup (until he was injured). Again, the offensive line is trash and I think that leads to Watson having two options on passing downs:
- Have tunnel vision and throw it to Hopkins before the sack
- Tuck it and run
That doesn’t leave much room for Will Fuller targets. Referring back to the Fantasy Pros Average Draft Position, Fuller is being taken as WR31. That is ahead of guys like: Emmanuel Sanders, Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, and Robby Anderson. Taking Fuller in front of those guys should be considered a sin. Don’t do it.
There is some value to be had when drafting a Houston Texan. Running back Lamar Miller, is currently being called off draft boards at RB22. Derrick Henry and Jay Ajayi’s names are currently being called before Miller’s. If that happens in your draft and Lamar Miller falls to you towards the end of round four, smile and take him.
I’ve been mentioning how bad the offensive line is, but I don’t think that is a big enough reason to justify Lamar Miller falling to almost the fifth round in drafts. He is one of the few three-down backs left in the NFL, so he should get plenty of work in both the passing and rushing game in Houston.
That workload should give fantasy owners enough of a R.O.I. with a late-fourth round price tag.
Houston Texans 2018 Fantasy Assets:
- DeAndre Hopkins (WR1)
- Deshaun Watson (mid-tier QB1)
- Lamar Miller (low-end RB2)
- Will Fuller (WR4 with big play upside)
- D’Onta Foreman (currently injured, waiver wire target when he returns)
Fantasy Football Notes – Indianapolis Colts
Andrew Luck is back! I feel like it’s been five years since we last watched Andrew Luck tear up an opposing defense and bring in 20+ fantasy points each week. Luckily, that wait is over. Andrew Luck has played in all three preseason match-ups and has looked decent in all of them.
Luck has completed 20 of 32 passes, for 204 yards with a touchdown and an interception. That’s nothing to write home about, but it is nice to see him back in action. My only concern is that he has yet to air the ball out and throw it deep. I’m hoping that the deep ball will come over the next 10 days of work.
Andrew is currently being selected as QB9 (late round seven) according to the Fantasy Pros Average Draft Position. If he can find a way to get back to the player he was a few years ago, he will be a huge asset to fantasy owners at a very reasonable draft price.
T.Y. Hilton is a proven veteran, so nothing warrants getting into detail with his preseason. In the previous two seasons where he played the whole season with Andrew Luck (2014 and 2016), Hilton has ended the fantasy season as a top-10 wide receiver (half point PPR). He is currently being drafted as WR11. That seems fair.
As for the tight ends, I’d recommend a wait-and-see approach in Indianapolis. You have the choices of both Jack Doyle, and newly acquired Eric Ebron. They both have had somewhat quiet preseasons, but Ebron seemed to have Luck’s attention last Saturday versus the 49ers. Ebron caught five passes for 54 yards and a touchdown.
We know Luck loves to use his tight ends, but I am not sure which one of them will get the majority of the work. My gut says Jack Doyle is the guy to own, but I’m avoiding the whole situation in drafts.
The running back situation is a very cloudy one for the Colts. Marlon Mack should be the RB1 heading into the season, but he has been limited with a hamstring injury this preseason. I don’t like him, but if he turns out to be the starter, you can get some value out of his eighth round price-tag.
In the event that Marlon Mack is not ready to go for week one, Jordan Wilkins seems to be the next man up for the Colts running back position. The rookie out of Mississippi has gotten plenty of action thus far in the preseason. He’s been responsible for 32 total touches and 132 all-purpose yards.
Indianapolis Colts 2018 Fantasy Assets:
- Andrew Luck (QB1, top-tier upside)
- T.Y. Hilton (low-end WR1)
- Jack Doyle (TE2)
- Eric Ebron (low-end TE2, TE1 upside)
- Marlon Mack (RB3)
- Jordan Wilkins (RB4, slight bump up if Mack misses time)
- Ryan Grant (WR4)
Fantasy Football Notes – Jacksonville Jaguars
If you’ve glanced over my piece, last week, on Fantasy Football Value Picks, you’re aware of how highly I think of Leonard Fournette. He’s looked incredible this preseason and should be drafted as a high-end RB1 in all formats. I have him ranked ahead of David Johnson, and right behind Todd Gurley, Le’Veon Bell, and Zeke Elliot.
Blake Bortles has quietly ended the season as a QB1 the last two years. I think this is the year he finally makes his way down to earth and back into the QB2 conversation. Although the preseason means nothing, he hasn’t looked very sharp. Blake has thrown for three interceptions, and zero touchdowns.
Bortles does know how to get fantasy points with his legs, so he usually has a decent floor for fantasy owners. You can get him very late in drafts with a current ADP of 182.8.
Now that Marqise Lee has been ruled out for the 2018 season with a knee injury, the wide receiving core in Jacksonville is a big question mark for fantasy owners. Donte Moncrief has been the only Jags wide-out to have some solid numbers in the preseason. Donte has hauled in eight catches for a total of 106 yards.
Dede Westbrook has made a few plays so far while getting ready for his second season in the NFL. Dede has caught six passes for a limited, 49 yards. Keelan Cole has done nothing in the preseason, but we have to include him in the conversation.
If I were to guess on how the WR production pans out in Jacksonville, I’d say:
- Donte Moncrief leads them in both yards and touchdowns.
- Dede Westbrook leads the receiving core in receptions.
- Keelan Cole has a relatively quiet season, maybe a WR3 in fantasy – at best.
You can get a great price on Moncrief, as he is currently being selected as WR76.
Until now, I haven’t made any bold predictions in these divisional write-ups, so here you go: Austin Seferian-Jenkins (ASJ) ends the season as a top-12, fantasy tight end. With Marquise Lee out of the picture, the Jags are left with a less than stellar group of receivers. Bortles has shown interest in targeting his tight end of the past few seasons, and he finally has a talented one to target.
I think ASJ is a nice bet to score eight or more touchdowns in 2018. You can currently get him at close to a free price in the 14th round of fantasy drafts. If he doesn’t pan out, feel free to point the finger at me, even though it should’t hurt your season.
Jacksonville Jaguars 2018 Fantasy Assets:
- Leonard Fournette (high-end RB1)
- Donte Moncrief (WR3, WR2 upside)
- Blake Bortles (mid-tier QB2)
- Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TE2, TE1 upside)
- Dede Westbrook (WR3, bump up in PPR leagues)
- Keelan Cole (WR4)
- TJ Yeldon (handcuff to Fournette)
Fantasy Football Notes – Tennessee Titans
We’ll start off with the QB position for the Titans. Marcus Mariota is coming off of a season where he let down fantasy owners. According to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Leaders, Mariota finished as QB18.
Roto Baller’s Offensive Line Power Rankings lists the Titans as the sixth best offensive line in football heading into 2018. Obviously, that is going to help Mariota. Although he has had a sub-par preseason, look for him to get back into the QB1 conversation among fantasy owners.
The running back position in Tennessee appears to be a little bit of a timeshare between Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis. They both haven’t gotten a ton of work in the preseason, but you can bet they’re both going to get quality snaps this season.
In terms of ADP, I think fantasy owners are better off passing on Derrick Henry in round three and waiting for Dion Lewis in round five.
The wide receiving core should consist of three players that will be fantasy relevant:
I’m out on any hype that has to do with Tajae Sharpe. Corey Davis should be the WR1 for the Titans after a forgetful rookie season. He never really seemed to get a rhythm going with Mariota. They’ve yet to show anything together in the preseason, but you have to imagine Davis is a big part of the Tennessee offense this season.
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Davis is currently WR26 on the Fantasy Pros Average Draft Position. In my opinion, that is a bit too early. He should not be getting drafted before wide-outs like Marquise Goodwin, Michael Crabtree, Alshon Jeffrey (pending injury), and Emmanuel Sanders.
Rishard Matthews has been absent for most of the preseason with an injury, but he should be back on the field for the remainder of the Titans’ camp. The guy that peaks my interest the most is second year player, Taywan Taylor. He has show how lethal he can be with his five catches, 104 yards, and two touchdowns in the preseason.
Taylor is going undrafted in most drafts, but he should be a player you keep your eye on early in the waiver wire. If you want to take a flier on him in the last round of your draft, he may pay dividends with his big-play ability.
Mr. Reliable, Delanie Walker, is going to be the main option at tight end for Tennessee. I have to imagine he leads the whole team in targets if he can remain healthy for the 2018 season. He has been a little banged up throughout the preseason, but he should be back for week one. Lock him in as a TE1 who is affordable in the late sixth round of drafts.
Tennessee Titans 2018 Fantasy Assets:
- Marcus Mariota (low-end QB1, solid upside)
- Derrick Henry (RB2, slight bump down in PPR leagues)
- Dion Lewis (RB2, slight bump up in PPR leagues)
- Delanie Walker (TE1)
- Corey Davis (low-end WR2)
- Rishard Matthews (WR3)
- Taywan Taylor (WR4, big time upside)
- Tajae Sharpe (potential waiver wire target later in season)
Next. Fantasy Football Notes - AFC East Team by Team. dark
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