Portland Trail Blazers: Can they tread water in the West after a stagnant offseason?
The Blazers may be one of the few Western Conference teams that didn’t actively improve over the offseason. A first-round sweep at the hands of the Pelicans should have been a jumping-off point for a modest restructuring of the roster. Instead, Portland will return much of the same team from last year. While turning over nearly the entirety of a 49-win team is hardly a worst-case scenario, merely standing still while nearly every other team in the West improved represents a clear step back.
The Blazers have made the playoffs every season of the Damian Lillard/CJ McCollum era, but this season, they aren’t markedly better than any of the other nine teams (Warriors, Rockets, Jazz, Thunder, Lakers, Nuggets, Spurs, Timberwolves, Pelicans) vying for playoff spots in the West. Where Portland falls among those teams will depend on the extent to which certain elements from last season regress to the mean. The Blazers posted a mediocre offense last year, a disappointment for a team with such a dynamic backcourt. But they defended at the eighth-best rate in the NBA last year, far outperforming what was expected of a group with two undersized guards and a slow-footed big man.
Portland held opponents to an NBA-best 54.2 percent shooting within five feet of the basket and forced the third-most long mid-range jumpers in the league. It also shot below the league average on wide-open jumpers; that mark could easily improve given the shooters on the Blazers’ roster. Damian Lillard had the best year of his career in 2018, while CJ McCollum took a step back. The roster is riddled with questions. Can Jusuf Nurkić – still just 24 – sustain his production without the motivation of his looming free agency? Will Moe Harkless make a leap as a 3-and-D stalwart? Is Zach Collins ready for a larger role? What will Evan Turner provide on a night-to-night basis? How will Terry Stotts piece together second units without Ed Davis, Pat Connaughton or Shabazz Napier? Every marginal loss and questionable contract adds up in the Western Conference. Portland is hoping that it doesn’t finally crumble what has been a firm foundation.