DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Friday, August 31
Welcome into the Friday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have the normal monster slate on our hands tonight so let’s go to work!
This article is going to be a little bittersweet because this will be the final Game by Game Breakdown of the 2018 MLB season for me. The Fantasy CPR Crew still has you covered all the way through the end of the year with gobs of excellent content, but I will be focusing fully on fantasy football as of this weekend. It’s been a crazy ride for 155 straight days, with some challenges that I knew were coming and a lot I didn’t. I just wanted to thank everyone that read and took time from their day. It truly means the world to me and I hope this helped you make a little bit of money through the year. There’s more thank you’s later on, but for now let’s kill my final slate of the year!
DFS MLB – Cubs at Phillies
Cubs Probable Starter – Jose Quintana, LHP
4.33 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 20.0 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .228 average, .279 wOBA, 21.8 K rate, 23.5 fly ball rate and 25.5 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .250 average, .340 wOBA, 19.4 K rate, 37.1 fly ball rate and 36.6 hard hit rate
Pitch Mix, Phillies xwOBA and ISO Leaders
We haven’t used Quintana that much all season but I think he’s worth a look as a GPP option tonight. Against lefty pitching, the Phillies rank in the bottom 10 in average, ISO, OPS, wOBA and wRC+ in addition to the seventh highest strikeout rate in baseball. He’s certainly not safe for cash since Quintana has had his issues this year and isn’t pitching great right now. He hasn’t crossed 24 FanDuel points in his last four outings but he does have a 40 point effort against these Phils earlier this season. One of the keys here is the Phils have added Wilson Ramos, Roman Quinn and Jose Bautista since the last time and those three would be fine options. Quinn is still just $2,600 on FanDuel and I’d have no issues going back to him, especially if Willson Contreras doesn’t catch for the Cubs.
Phillies Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Roman Quinn(If no Contreras)
Secondary Options – Wilson Ramos, Jose Bautista
Phillies Probable Starter – Nick Pivetta, RHP
4.76 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 28.2 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .286 average, .354 wOBA, 27.0 K rate, 39.9 fly ball rate and 37.1 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .238 average, .296 wOBA, 29.2 K rate, 33.2 fly ball rate and 31.7 hard hit rate
Pitch Mix, Cubs xwOBA and ISO Leaders
I usually don’t mind taking a shot at Pivetta when the lineup he’s facing has a lot of righties on it but that’s not going to be the case tonight. The Cubs should roll out some majority of Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Daniel Murphy, Ben Zobrist and Jason Heyward on the left side of the plate and that’s where we want to attack. Pivetta has a 1.66 HR/9 to lefties and Zobrist, Schwarber and Rizzo all have ISO’s of .260 or higher against the pitch mix. Murphy has a .499 xwOBA in the same split so they would be the ones we head to first. Rizzo is really getting up there at $4,400 and I might be willing to go with Murphy and Schwarber instead at cheaper price points. This is going to be a tough spot for Pivetta to succeed but he does have the strikeout upside to get it done, even with the Cubbies only striking out 21 percent of the time. Chicago does have some BvP working for them as they’ve hit for an average over .350 and an xwOBA of .361 in 33 at-bats.
Cubs Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Daniel Murphy
Secondary Options – Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, Ian Happ
Home Run Pick – Daniel Murphy
DFS MLB – Tigers at Yankees
Tigers Probable Starter – Jordan Zimmermann, RHP
4.38 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 20.6 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .258 average, .328 wOBA, 20.3 K rate, 40.1 fly ball rate and 34.1 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .284 average, .337 wOBA, 20.9 K rate, 45.8 fly ball rate and 39.4 hard hit rate
Pitch Mix, Yankees xwOBA and ISO Leaders
You certainly can’t feel good about using Zimmermann tonight and he doesn’t have any major weakness by the splits so it’s likely best to lean on the splits data and which hitters are best against righty pitching. It’s kind of surprising but Miguel Andujar is behind only Aaron Judge in OPS and wOBA on the season against righty pitching. He and Aaron Hicks might be my favorites in this spot and Giancarlo Stanton is on the radar at all times but I don’t think I’ll go there tonight. I don’t think this is a full load up spot for New York. Zimmermann might not be good anymore but he’s not terrible. It’s not too hard to see a scenario where he goes five innings, gives up one home run and strikes out a few hitters.
Yankees Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Aaron Hicks, Miguel Andujar
Secondary Options – Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres
Yankees Probable Starter – Luis Severino, RHP
3.27 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 28.2 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .247 average, .300 wOBA, 29.4 K rate, 29.6 fly ball rate and 34.3 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .226 average, .280 wOBA, 27.3 K rate, 37.0 fly ball rate and 32.2 hard hit rate
Pitch Mix, Tigers xwOBA and ISO Leaders
Not only are the Tigers terrible by about any metric against righty pitching, they are 28th against the slider which is one of the main pitches for Severino. He throws it 31 percent to lefties and 41 percent to righties so it’s very hard to feel good about playing any Tigers. The only one I might take a stab at just as a pure ownership play is Niko Goodrum. He does have a .325 ISO versus the fastball/slider mix but you have to be a pretty firm believer in pitch data for that.
Tigers Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Niko Goodrum, Nicholas Castellanos
Home Run Pick – Aaron Hicks
DFS MLB – Brewers at Nationals
Brewers Probable Starter – Jhoulys Chacin, RHP
3.61 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 19.6 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .260 average, .336 wOBA, 15.4 K rate, 33.0 fly ball rate and 39.1 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .184 average, .249 wOBA, 23.9 K rate, 36.8 fly ball rate and 34.8 hard hit rate
Pitch Mix, Nationals xwOBA and ISO Leaders
Seeing the splits from Chacin makes this spot pretty easy to figure out who we want to target and it’s the lefty hitters form the Nationals. That’s really only Bryce Harper and Juan Soto at this point and the ISO versus the pitch mix skews towards Harper. He’s at .264 compared to Soto under .175 so as long as Harper is in the lineup, he would be the first target for me. Adam Eaton will bat lefty but I generally only like to use him if I think the Nats are going to roll when he leads off. I don’t think that’s the case tonight and Chacin is under 1.00 for his HR/9 to lefties on the year so even Harper and Soto are just tournament options.
Nationals Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Bryce Harper, Juan Soto(elite GPP)
Nationals Probable Starter – Tanner Roark, RHP
3.95 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 20.1 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .250 average, .314 wOBA, 22.8 k rate, 39.3 fly ball rate and 24.9 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .243 average, .298 wOBA, 17.5 K rate, 34.8 fly ball rate and 30.3 hard hit rate
Pitch Mix, Brewers xwOBA and ISO Leaders
If Christian Yelich hasn’t hit a home run by about 7:09 tonight, I will just assume the world has ended and I entered an alternate reality. He is so hot right now it’s not even funny and even at a hefty price tag, it has to give you a little bit of nervousness if you don’t play him tonight. I’ve said multiple times he’s not a big power hitter but he’s also going to hit 30 home runs so that’s nothing to sneer at. Roark is one of those pitchers that you always want to attack because he’s not very consistent but it’s difficult to get him on the right night when he’s not pitching well. He’s given up nine homers to each side of the plate so we should just stick to who hits righty pitching the best and that’s Jesus Aguilar and Travis Shaw.
Brewers Hitters to target
Elite Options – Christian Yelich
Secondary options – Jesus Aguilar, Travis Shaw
Home Run Pick –
DFS MLB – Rays at Indians
Rays Probable Starter – Tyler Glasnow, RHP
4.18 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 31.1 strikeout rate
vs LHH – .218 average, .313 wOBA, 30.1 K rate, 26.2 fly ball rate and 20.9 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .204 average, .278 wOBA, 32.0 K rate, 33.0 fly ball rate and 34.0 hard hit rate
Pitch Mix, Indians xwOBA and ISO Leaders
Glasnow has shown some pretty major strides in Tampa but I’m not sure this is the spot to try and use him. The Cleveland offense is dangerous and they can take advantage of Glasnow being weak against stolen bases as well. Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez can swipe a bag but Glasnow has some strikeout upside in this spot and has kept the ball in the park. Granted, the Indians strike out under 19 percent of the time so there are a lot of outcomes that are possible in this spot. I think Glasnow could be an elite GPP option but he could get absolutely waxed. Nothing from this side of the game is a cash game play.
Indians Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor
Indians Probable Starter – Corey Kluber, RHP
2.91 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 24.6 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .219 average, .274 wOBA, 27.1 K rate, 32.2 fly ball rate ad 36.5 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .231 average, .265 wOBA, 22.3 K rate, 34.1 fly ball rate and 36.0 hard hit rate
Pitch Mix, Rays xwOBA and ISO Leaders
I’m not going to use Rays hitters but paying up for Kluber doesn’t seem like the best play here. He’s still being priced like he’s an elite strikeout pitcher and that’s simply not the case. His strikeout rate is under 25 percent and the ERA is up around 3.00. That’s not good enough ratios for me to pay top dollar for a pitcher, regardless of how solid the matchup is. There’s at least two pitchers cheaper that I would play tonight, one of which we talked about in Severino.
Rays Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary options – None
Home Run Pick – Francisco Lindor
DFS MLB – Blue Jays at Marlins
Blue Jays Probable Starter – Aaron Sanchez, RHP
4.95 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and 18.1 stakeout rate
Vs LHH – .311 average, .400 wOBA, 15.4 K rate, 32.8 fly ball rate and 31.7 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .215 average, .279 wOBA, 20.6 K rate, 30.1 fly ball rate and 34.6 hard hit rate
Pitch Mix, Marlins xwOBA and ISO Leaders
It might seem crazy but I don’t think Sanchez is that terrible of a play. He gets smacked by lefties but the Marlins don’t have virtually any lefty power in this lineup. Add that to the park skewing heavily to the pitcher and this could be a reasonable spot for Sanchez given his cost. The only two lefties we can consider are Derek Dietrich and J.T. Riddle. What’s really surprising is Riddle actually has the higher ISO against righty pitching than Dietrich does at .164 to .152. One thing to keep in mind is Sanchez could still be treated with kid gloves as last start was his first one in about two months. If the pitch count is reasonable, Sanchez is in play.
Marlins Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Derek Dietrich, J.T. Riddle
Marlins Probable Starter – Dan Straily, RHP
4.35 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 19.3 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .256 average, .357 wOBA, 19.3 K rate, 36.0 fly ball rate and 45.0 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .222 average, .309 wOBA, 19.3 K rate, 45.9 fly ball rate and 45.8 hard hit rate
Pitch Mix, Blue Jays xwOBA and ISO Leaders
I’m not 100 percent sure where to go with this side of the game because Straily gives up plenty of homers but he always seems to escape with a reasonable start when I use hitters against him. The splits are pretty even as far as home runs go so this seems more about the Blue Jays hitters than splits for Straily. I’m leaning towards Justin Smoak and maybe Curtis Granderson, but I’m not sure if they’re my favorites tonight. Billy McKinney is still solid if he hits at the top of the lineup and Randall Grichuk might be overlooked since he’s a little expensive relative to his normal range but he does have a .353 ISO against the pitch mix for Straily.
Blue Jays Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Billy McKinney, Randall Grichuk
Secondary Options – Justin Smoak, Curtis Granderson
Home Run Pick – Randall Grichuk
DFS MLB – Pirates at Braves
Pirates Probable Starter – Jameson Taillon, RHP
3.49 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 22.1 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .276 average, .335 wOBA, 18.6 K rate, 29.8 fly ball rate and 32.2 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .222 average, .255 wOBA, 25.8 K rate, 29.4 fly ball rate and 29.3 hard hit rate
Pitch Mix, Braves xwOBA and ISO Leaders
Taillon has been on a roll with eight quality starts in the past nine. The Braves are a good offense but I think we should leave them mostly on the sidelines tonight. The Pittsburgh righty is worse against lefties but he doesn’t give up a ton of fly balls and hasn’t given up a home runs either. The slider has made all the difference for Taillon this season and the only hitter I really might look at is Freddie Freeman. He’s the seventh highest salary on FanDuel and that’s a rare occurrence. He might go massively overlooked and Freeman could get the better of Taillon in this matchup.
Braves Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Freddie Freeman
Braves Probable Starter – TBD
Once again, the Braves are playing games with us and haven’t announced a starter yet. It looks like it will be Anibal Sanchez and he’s been a really solid pitcher this year. I wouldn’t want to play Pirates tonight against a good pitcher as they are in some kind of a funk right now. The slate is way too big to play Pirates instead of all the other options.
Pirates Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – TBD
Home Run Pick – Freddie Freeman
DFS MLB – Twins at Rangers
Twins Probable Starter – Stephen Gonslaves, LHP
11.37 ERA, 3.00 WHIP and 13.9 strikeout rate
Pitch Mix, Rangers xwOBA and ISO Leaders
I didn’t really include the splits here because Gonsalves has only faced three lefties so far and he’s yet to record an out. You have to like the Rangers in this spot until Gonsalves shows us any other reason to think he’s not a gas can and I would start with righties like Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Adrian Beltre and Jurickson Profar. I don’t even hate Joey Gallo because he has a .333 ISO overall on the season and it’s .387 via the pitch data. Rougned Odor and his .337 wOBA versus lefties is perfectly fine too. There’s plenty of hitters that are attractive here and it just depends on their lineup as to who is the best options. It’s nice that some of the hitters are a little on the cheaper side to fit in other spots.
Rangers Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Joey Gallo, Jurickson Profar
Secondary Options – Rougned Odor, Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus
Rangers Probable Starter – Drew Hutchison, RHP
6.52 ERA, 1.78 WHIP and 16.2 hard hit rate
Vs LHH – .308 average, .371 wOBA, 18.4 K rate, 36.5 fly ball rate and 25.5 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .276 average, .398 wOBA, 14.7 K rate, 42.9 fly ball rate and 37.5 hard hit rate
Pitch Mix, Twins xwOBA and ISO Leaders
I would doubt I’ve said it too often this year but this might be a spot where I lock in Miguel Sano. He’s just $2,600 on FanDuel and if there’s a spot to use Sano, it’s when he faces a pitcher that doesn’t strikeout hitters. That’s the matchup he has tonight and even through his struggles, he always brings the power potential. It doesn’t appear the Eddie Rosario or Jorge Polanco will play tonight so the next best options here might be Max Kepler. He has a .198 ISO and hits a lot of fly balls as it is. This is one of the better offensive games on the slate tonight.
Twins Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Miguel Sano, Max Kepler
Secondary Options – Jake Cave, Jorge Polanco if active
Home Run Pick – Miguel Sano
DFS MLB – Red Sox at White Sox
Red Sox Probable Starter – Nathan Eovaldi, RHP
4.15 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 20.3 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .278 average, .334 wOBA, 18.4 K rate, 34.3 fly ball rate and 34.5 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .233 average, .267 wOBA, 22.3 K rate, 38.3 fly ball rate and 33.8 hard hit rate
Pitch Mix, White Sox xwOBA and ISO Leaders
Its not been a good stretch for Eovaldi as he’s given up at least seven hits in all four of his last starts. Maybe him working with Pedro Martinez helps solve some of the issues but it’s more likely a matchup with the White Sox and their 25.5 percent strikeout rate that helps. It’s hard to trust him in anything else but GPP but there is legitimate upside here for Eovaldi. There is also obvious downside and I think we want the lefties here with Yoan Moncada and Daniel Palka. I’ll always favor Moncada in these spots because he brings a little more upside since he can steal bases but they’re far from the most consistent hitters. Much like a lot of spots tonight, this game could go either way.
White Sox Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Yoan Moncada
Secondary Options – Daniel Palka
White Sox Probable Starter – Michael Kopech, RHP
1.13 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 22.2 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .300 average, .303 wOBA, 19.1 K rate, 31.3 fly ball rate and 43.8 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .308 average, .355 wOBA, 26.7 K rate, 55.6 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate
Pitch Mix, Red Sox xwOBA and ISO Leaders
Kopech has been very impressive in his limited action so far in large part because he still has allowed no walks and that was one of his biggest issues in the minors. This is going to be a major challenge for him tonight against this very strong Red Sox lineup but he’s talented enough that I think we should just hang back from this one and see how it plays out. Kopech has enough talent that things could go well for him but he also throws the fastball so much that hitters like Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez can line it up and hit it, regardless of velocity. Betts has homered in two straight games and seems like he’s heating up while Martinez left the yard last night as well.
Red Sox Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez
Home Run Pick – Mookie Betts makes it three in a row
DFS MLB – Angels at Astros
Angels Probable Starter – Jaime Barria, RHP
3.67 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 18.4 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .220 average, .262 wOBA, 20.8 K rate, 36.1 fly ball rate and 37.2 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .297 average, .362 wOBA, 15.9 K rate, 44.0 fly ball rate and 38.4 hard hit rate
Pitch Mix, Astros xwOBA and ISO Leaders
We haven’t liked a ton of spots for offense so far but that’s changes right now because Barria should struggle in this matchup. Some of the surface numbers look good against righties but on the road, he’s pitched to a 6.57 FIP and 5.77 xFIP in part because his strand rate is over 96 percent. Good luck keeping the Astros off base in this matchup with the amount of hard contact Barria gives up to righties. The top four in the lineup look great again tonight and if you want to try and be different, you can look at hitters like Tyler White or Evan Gattis to play alongside with other members of this Astro lineup.
Astros Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve
Secondary Options – Carlos Correa, George Springer, Tyler White, Evan Gattis
Astros Probable Starter – Framber Valdez, LHP
0.96 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 18.0 strikeout rate(9.1 IP)
Pitch Mix, Angels xwOBA and ISO Leaders
There’s not a lot for us to get into with Valdez as far as splits and track record with only 9.1 innings pitched but he’s been a big groundballer in his time in the majors so far. With that being the case, I’m not going to use Shohei Ohtani or Kole Calhoun since they’re lefties so the only hitter I’m looking at is Mike Trout. Any night that you can get a player of his caliber at a super low ownership, you have to at least give him some consideration. He’s not under $5,000 on FanDuel all that often and I’d take my chances with him against an unknown pitcher. This game is nice and simple since it’s either an Astros stack, Mike Trout or nothing. Valdez carries to much risk to consider him all that heavily.
Angels Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Mike Trout
Home Run Pick – Alex Bregman, Evan Gattis
DFS MLB – Orioles at Royals
Orioles Probable Starter – Andrew Cashner, RHP
4.79 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 15.8 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .268 average, .353 wOBA, 18.5 K rate, 38.4 fly ball rate and 33.6 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .285 average, .346 wOBA, 12.9 K rate, 31.9 fly ball rate and 29.4 hard hit rate
Pitch Mix, Royals xwOBA and ISO Leaders
This game doesn’t have a lot of things to take away from it and there are going to be very few options. From the Royals side, there’s two hitters that would be alright options for tonight. Salvador Perez does help fill a catcher spot hat has some limited options, and Cashner does give up plenty of home runs. He does have the highest ISO among regular players at .206 and that is it. Whit Merrifield is fine but we always prefer him against lefties. He has very little power to speak of against righty pitching.
Royals Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Salvador Perez, Whit Merrifield
Royals Probable Starter – Brad Keller, RHP
3.33 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 16.4 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .264 average, .324 wOBA, 16.8 K rate, 22.1 fly ball rate and 33.6 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .249 average, .280 wOBA, 16.2 K rate, 27.9 fly ball rate and 32.2 hard hit rate
Pitch Mix, Orioles xwOBA and ISO Leaders
You can make a case that Keller is on the forefront of cheap pitching but the Orioles have been a pretty decent offense as of late. I’m not loading up on Orioles but it might be enough to keep me off of Keller. Baltimore does have a top 10 strikeout rate in baseball so he does have some upside but Keller himself just strikeout many hitters. This will mostly be a walk-away game for me but Jonathan Villar and Cedric Mullins would be some decent lineup fillers. Both new additions to the squad have a wOBA over .360 and an ISO of at least .130. I don’t think the righties from Baltimore are the way to go and they might help weigh down the team in general.
Orioles Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Cedric Mullins, Jonathan Villar, Chris Davis
Home Run Pick – Salvador Perez
ST. LOUIS, MO – JULY 13: Yadier Molina #4 of the St. Louis Cardinals drives in a run with a single against the Cincinnati Reds in the first inning at Busch Stadium on July 13, 2018 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)
DFS MLB – Reds at Cardinals
Reds Probable Starter – Homer Bailey, RHP
6.17 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and 14.8 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .302 average, .387 wOBA, 15.7 K rate, 36.0 fly ball rate and 35.2 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .307 average, .365 wOBA, 13.9 K rate, 33.0 fly ball rate and 48.1 hard hit rate
Pitch Mix, Cardinals xwOBA and ISO Leaders
The Cards are in a great spot but there’s no doubt that most of them are expensive. You’re going to have to decide between the Cards and the Astros or another one of your favorite offense because things might get dicey fitting everything in. I think quietly the Cards might be the best stack on the slate, in part because Bailey is a gas can and the Cads have hit him well in the past. In 148 at-bats, the Cards have a combined .405 average and a .414 xwOBA with three home runs. Yadi is far from a sure thing but the BvP data is awesome for him at a .404 average, .499 xwOBA and three homers. Bailey sure seems to be in a spot that ‘s going to get beat up.
Elite Options – Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina, Paul DeJong
Secondary Options – Jose Martinez, Tyler O’Neil, Harrison Bader
Cardinals Probable Starter – Austin Gomber, LHP
2.79 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 20.5 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .234 average, .297 wOBA, 21.1 K rate, 36.7 fly ball rate and 34.7 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .212 average, .306 wOBA, 20.2 K rate, 38.1 fly ball rate and 39.5 hard hit rate
Pitch Mix, Reds xwOBA and ISO Leaders
Here’s hoping that Eugenio Suarez and his back is ready to roll tonight because he would be a great play that isn’t going to get the attention he deserves. Suarez isn’t owned enough on smaller slates against lefties, let alone on massive ones. They’ve already had one run in and it ended with Suarez hitting a homer and that could well happen again tonight and that tends to happen with a 1.150 OPS, .336 ISO and a .475 versus lefties this year. I wouldn’t use almost any other Red, even though Joey Votto is back. He hasn’t been quite as good against lefties as usual.
Reds Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Eugenio Suarez
Secondary Options – None
Home Run Pick – Yadier Molina
DFS MLB – Mariners at A’s
Mariners Probable Starter – Mike Leake, RHP
4.03 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 15.3 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .274 average, .303 wOBA, 11.9 K rate, 28.3 fly ball rate and 37.6 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .269 average, .332 wOBA, 18.3 K rate, 31.7 fly ball rate and 34.4 hard hit rate
Pitch Mix, A’s xwOBA and ISO Leaders
It can be hard and frustrating to stack against Leake because he’s not a good pitcher but the ground ball rate tends to ruin a lot of stacks. I like using Matt Olson against low strikeout pitchers but he’s been quiet lately and it’s a scary play. Khris Davis and Matt Chapman are both in play tonight as well, simply because you have to miss their bats. If you’re not, they both have an ISO over.260 and can tap into that power at any time. Leake doesn’t have virtually any upside so it doesn’t seem like the optimal route to use him.
A’s Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Khris Davis
Secondary options – Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Jed Lowrie
A’s Probable Starter – Mike Fiers, RHP
3.15 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 19.5 strikeout rate
vs LHH – .237 average, .311 wOBA, 20.0 K rate, 43.8 fly ball rate and 39.3 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .256 average, .309 wOBA, 18.9 K rate, 42.3 fly ball rate and 35.6 hard hit rate
I guess Fiers is happy to be on a playoff caliber team because he’s been on a roll since arriving in Oakland. He’s given up 23 home runs so far this year but his ERA is also almost under 4.00 which means he’s not giving up much else than the home runs. Obviously we want to chase the homer but it’s very hard to figure out exactly who Fiers gives one up to. Kyle Seager might be a quietly good play. Fiers does give up a lot of fly balls and and has been a little more homer prone to lefty hitters. If Seager is too off the board, I think Nelson Cruz and Mitch Haniger with their ISO’s over .225. Don’t be surprised if the Mariners bats are mostly quiet.
Mariners Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Kyle Seager, Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger
Home Run Pick –
DFS MLB – Diamondbacks at Dodgers
Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Zach Greinke, RHP
2.93 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 25.3 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .224 average, .271 wOBA, 22.9 K rate, 28.0 fly ball rate and 36.6 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .224 average, .288 wOBA, 27.3 K rate, 37.2 fly ball rate and 43.4 hard hit rate
Pitch Mix, Dodgers xwOBA and ISO Leaders
Hey, I remembered this game was in Los Angeles tonight! Yesterday I wrote like the game was in Arizona so I apologize for that. I think we may have found a spot that even Brian won’t be stacking up the Dodgers tonight, but I could be wrong. Greinke is in the middle of another great season and he’s been a little worse on the road but it’s not too significant that I want to use that as a reason to try and find hitters against him. He’s given up more fly balls to righties along with the hard hits so you can build a case to use Brian Dozier and Manny Machado because they’re really good hitters and Greinke has given up 16 bombs to righties. Machado has the highest ISO against the pitch mix for a righty hitter at .295. Anything on this side of the game is a pure GPP option on a slate this big.
Dodgers Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Brian Dozier, Manny Machado
Dodgers Probable Starter – Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP
2.18 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 29.7 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .177 average, .273 wOBA, 22.0 K rate, 24.0 fly ball rate and 16.0 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .207 average, .264 wOBA, 31.9 K rate, 36.4 fly ball rate and 37.8 hard hit rate
When he’s been healthy, Ryu has been excellent and he’s cheap enough that I might be willing to play him as an SP2 in a lineup tonight. It is scary because the D-Backs have owned him in their careers. Over 92 at-bats, Ryu has allowed a .337 average, .533 slug, .484 xwOBA and three home runs. The man responsible for the home runs is Paul Goldschmidt and that comes along with a .435 average and a huge .758 xwOBA. Both A.J. Pollock and Ketel Marte have xwOBA’s over .470. It definitely would seem like a long shot at success for Ryu tonight but he’s been pitching so well this year it could be worth it as an un-owned player. If I had to play just one player from this game, it would definitely be Goldy.
Diamondbacks Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Paul Goldschmidt
Secondary Options – A.J. Pollock, Ketel Marte
Home Run Pick – Brian Dozier
DFS MLB – Rockies at Padres
Rockies Probable Starter – Antonio Senzatela, RHP
5.24 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 16.8 strikeout rate
vs LHH – .256 average, .301 wOBA, 15.6 K rate, 29.0 fly ball rate and 32.4 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .277 average, .349 wOBA, 17.5 K rate, 35.1 fly ball rate and 42.1 hard hit rate
Pitch Mix, Padres xwOBA and ISO Leaders
It’s a very rare night that I don’t like a pitcher against the Padres, even after my man German Marquez mowed them down last night for 13 strikeouts in eight innings. Senzatela just doesn’t strike out enough to make me believe he has any upside despite the matchup. He throws the fastball an awful lot and even the Padres might be able to draw a bead on it at a rate over 65 percent. Will Myers is very interesting with an ISO over .300 against the pitch and Hunter Refroe isn’t bad either considering the splits here for Senzatela. I don’t think I would go much further because the Padres offense is so poor this season.
Padres Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Wil Myers
Secondary Options – Hunter Renfroe
Padres Probable Starter – Brett Kennedy, RHP
7.58 ERA, 1.95 WHIP and 15.1 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .279 average, .357 wOBA, 20.0 K rate, 51.5 fly ball rate and 35.3 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .442 average, .542 wOBA, 10.4 K rate, 28.6 fly ball rate and 47.4 hard hit rate
Pitch Mix, Rockies xwOBA and ISO Leaders
Can the Rockies offense show up on the road just one time please? I’m going back to the well with Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story in some format tonight and I’d really like to get some actual points this time around. Kennedy has been putrid so far and he can’t strikeout any righty hitters. They both have an ISO against the pitch mix of at least .190 and that has to come into play tonight…right?? I truly don’t mind Charlie Blackmon or David Dahl since Kennedy is so bad but I’m sure any of the Rockies make the cut for cash line. The offense is so much worse on the road it’s hard to trust.
Rockies Hitters to target
Elite Options – Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story
Secondary Options – Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl
Home Run Pick – Wil Myers
DFS MLB – Mets at Giants
Mets Probable Starter – Zack Wheeler, RHP
3.46 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 23.6 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .253 average, .312 wOBA, 25.2 K rate, 36.2 fly ball rate and 33.2 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .218 average, .258 wOBA, 22.1 K rate, 32.6 fly ball rate and 20.8 hard hit rate
Pitch Mix, Giants xwOBA and ISO Leaders
Wheeler is priced up tonight but how can you not love him? Buster Posey is done for the year, it appears that Andrew McCutchen is on his way to don the pinstripes(do it Cutch. Get your ring!) and there is not much left in this Giants lineup. On top of everything else, Wheeler gets to showcase his strikeout upside in a great pitcher’s park. I’m not playing Giants at all and have no issue paying the price that Wheeler carries tonight.
Giants Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – None
Giants Probable Starter – Andrew Suarez, LHP
4.42 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 20.6 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .214 average, .233 wOBA, 21.5 K rate, 17.0 fly ball rate and 30.6 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .291 average, .362 wOBA, 20.3 K rate, 30.0 fly ball rate and 44.7 hard hit rate
Pitch Mix, Mets xwOBA and ISO Leaders
Suarez isn’t a total dumpster fire of a pitcher and there’s not much here for the Mets. I’m not going to play hitters with mild power like Todd Frazier in this park so where else can we go? Wilmer Flores has a wOBA under .300 and an ISO barely over .100 so far so he’s out. I don’t mind Amed Rosario. Suarez has had his issue with righty hitters and and if you feel comfortable with Rosario getting on base, he’s got a good chance to steal the next base. It doesn’t hurt that he’s pretty cheap at a position that isn’t always fun to figure out who to play. This game is pretty poor for fantasy potential outside of Wheeler and maybe Rosario.
Mets Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Amed Rosario
Home Run Pick – None
DFS MLB – Sample FanDuel Lineup
P – Zack Wheeler
C/1B – Yadier Molina
2B – Ketel Marte
SS – Amed Rosario
3B – Miguel Sano
OF – Roman Quinn, ,Derek Dietrich, Ben Zobrist
Utility – Alex Bregman
The Core – Yadier Molina, Alex Bregman, Zack Wheeler
Pithing to Consider
High End – Corey Kluber, Luis Severino, Zack Wheeler
Mid-Range – Jameson Taillon, Aaron Sanchez, Brad Keller
Punt – Tyler Glasnow
Stacks to Consider – Twins/Rangers stack, Houston Astros, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Yankees, Cleveland Indians
So, now that the article is done I want to give some thank you’s quickly. If you prefer not to read, that’s totally cool and I want to thank you for a great season. There’s a group of people that deserve a public thank you and this is their space.
All the guys at FanCave and DFS Army – Dan, Joe, Mike and Johnny and anyone I’m forgetting at 3 AM – you guys rock. I appreciate you gentleman for helping a newbie out.
All the writers at CPR – You don’t have the luxury of mailing in any article you work on because these guys pump out quality at every turn. If you can’t hang, it’s going to stand out in a heartbeat. This staff is awesome.
Josh Collacchi and Adam Pfeifer(and #trader Ricky Sanders) – You guys have been nothing but gracious and have helped me so much as a player this year. You guys took a chance on some random dude for a podcast and good things are happening. Let’s keep it up!
Matt Verderame – Why an editor gave me(who had never written about baseball or had a daily column at any point) gave me a chance at this, I have no idea. Matt had faith in me for some reason and hopefully I lived up to that faith.
Josh Hill – Even at the super early stages, Josh just wanted this to get out to as many people as possible and he helped me not get too down in the time before we found the niche for this article. He never doubted even when I did.
Michelle Bruton – Another editor who believed in me when I was as shaky as a baby deer, I very well may have given up long before we got to this point if not for the professional support from these three. I’m pretty excited that I didn’t.
Brian Tulloch – For everyone saying they don’t know how I have so much time to put out content, I think I learned from Brian. He’s always doing anything he can to make this site better, promote our stuff relentlessly and I’m positive I’ve never waited longer than 5 minutes to hear an answer on any question I’ve ever had. That dude is the real machine, not me.
All my friends and family that encourage me along the way and don’t get too mad when I forgot to return texts or just plain don’t notice them, thanks for putting up with me.
To anyone I may have forgot, it was not intentional at all. As usual, it’s pretty late and the brain is craving sleep.
Finally, my amazing wife, Sam. If it wasn’t for her support on every front, this article wouldn’t have happened for 155 straight days. She let’s me chase down a dream every day and I doubt I can ever really repay her for that. No matter what I needed to get through that particular challenge on that day, she was there every single time. I can’t thank her enough for the sacrifices she made through the last few months.
I can’t wait for next year and I hope those of you who enjoy fantasy football will head over to that side with me. I’ll have a lot coming at you on that front shortly and we’re not that far away from pitchers and catchers reporting!