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MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Friday, August 31st All Slates

By Juan Carlos Blanco

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MLB DFS Bargain Bin– Friday, August 31st All Slates

Welcome to a Friday edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the ledger and touch on where the weakest pitching spots might be, and by extension, where there may be some value bats to consider. Additionally, I’ll look to identify where a value arm or two might be intersecting with an offense that’s running cold or is otherwise inefficient against a certain handedness.

Before we go MLB DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content:

  • The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
  • Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
  • In this DFS MLB Bargain Bin Quick Hits version, I’ll suggest players that are typically value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft). Naturally, check final pricing before making your lineup decisions, as I am not listing salaries in this edition.
  • This is not a position-by-position breakdown, but rather, I’m just identifying games where I think there’s value players in potentially favorable fantasy spots.
  • The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.

With those housekeeping items out of the way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on Friday’s evening slates!

MLB DFS Bargain Bin– Fri. Aug. 31st All Slates Bargain Pitcher

Brad Keller, KC vs. BAL

Keller is perpetually affordable across the industry, even as he continues churning out solid performances nearly every trip to the mound. The right-hander has only gone five innings apiece in each of his last two starts, but he’s only allowed a combined three earned runs during that stretch while recording 10 strikeouts against the White Sox and Indians. Prior to that pair of outings, he’d gone at least six innings in three straight trips to the mound, generating a quality start in two of them.

His Friday matchup lines up nicely, considering the Orioles have an AL-worst .248 wOBA, 52 wRC+ and -9.7 wRAA over 177 plate appearances against right-handed pitching on the road the last two weeks, along with a 25.4 percent strikeout rate, .206 average and anemic .103 ISO. They’ve also generated a pedestrian 29.8 percent hard contact rate against righties over that stretch.

Keller owns a solid 3.23 ERA, .235 BAA and .282 wOBA allowed over 55.2 innings at home this season, and he’s allowed just three home runs at Kauffman Stadium overall. Keller also boasts markedly better metrics at home in several other categories, including WHIP (1.26, compared to 1.45) and strikeout rate (17.3 percent, compared to 15.6 percent). He’ll face a Baltimore lineup that’s recently been further depleted by the loss of Mark Trumbo to season-ending surgery, furthering his case overall.

ALSO CONSIDER:

Austin Gomber, STL vs. CIN

Framber Valdez, HOU vs. LAA

MLB DFS Bargain Bin– Friday, Aug. 31st All Slates Quick Hits

  • Tigers starter Jordan Zimmermann has been especially vulnerable to left-handed hitters at home, allowing a .342 wOBA and 34.9 percent hard contact rate. Brett Gardner, Greg Bird and the switch-hitting Neil Walker all qualify as potential cheap Yankees bats to focus on as a result.
  • Yankees starter Luis Severino has been progressively more hittable in the second half, although he’s still not a pitcher I would rush to target. However, worth noting he’s allowed a .320 wOBA, 29.1 percent line-drive rate and 39.1 percent hard contact rate to left-handed hitters outside of Yankee Stadium, making the likes of Jeimer Candelario, Jim Adduci, Victor Martinez and the hot-hitting Niko Goodrum intriguing.
  • The always confounding Tanner Roark takes the mound for the Nationals on Friday, putting Brewers lefty hitters in the spotlight. The right-hander has allowed a .359 wOBA (including six homers) and 22.3 percent line-drive rate to left-handed hitters at home, but the only conundrum from a value perspective is most of the Milwaukee lefty bats are priced above value range. One exception is Eric Thames, who’s been struggling but certainly has more than enough homer upside for tournaments.
  • The Brewers’ Jhoulys Chacin has had plenty of trouble with lefty hitters on the road (.352 wOBA, 5.64 xFIP and 33.3 percent hard contact rate allowed), so don’t hesitate to give the likes of Adam Eaton, Wilmer Difo and Matt Wieters consideration in terms of value bats.
  • Worth noting that Phillies starter Nick Pivetta has had his share of struggles versus left-handed hitters and that the Cubs’ Daniel Murphy and Tommy LaStella both have particularly strong track records against him (.571 and .600 average, respectively) in terms of cheap Cubs left-handed options.
  • On the other side, Dan Straily has allowed a .352 wOBA and 43.4 percent hard contact rate to right-handed hitters at Marlins Park, which tends to usually favor pitchers. While it’s a bit harder on average to hit them out there, affordable righty Blue Jays bats with pop the likes of Adelmys Diaz, Randal Grichuk, Kevin Pillar and Devon Travis are of particular interest.
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MLB DFS Bargain Bin– Friday, Aug. 31st All Slates Quick Hits (cont.)

  • The same applies to affordable Braves lefty bats versus the Pirates Jameson Taillon, as he’s allowed a .340 wOBA to that handedness on the road. Ender Inciarte, Johan Camargo and Lucas Duda certainly show up as intriguing value possibilities, along with the more expensive options.
  • Keep David Freese, Jody Mercer and Josh Harrison under consideration against the Braves’ Anibal Sanchez, as all three have enjoyed success to varying degrees against the veteran right-hander in past encounters.
  • The scoreboard operator figures to be busy at Globe Life Park on Friday, as Stephen Gonsalves and Drew Hutchison will toe the rubber for the Twins and Rangers, respectively. With both pitchers having struggled against either handedness of hitter, all value options could reasonably be considered on either squad. In narrowing it down further, Joey Gallo and Jake Cave are two of my favorite options on each team, but as I stated, every affordable option has an extra level of appeal.
  • The Angels’ Jaime Barria has been pummeled by right-handed hitters all season long, and he’s allowed them a .428 wOBA and 38.3 percent hard contact rate on the road. Cheap Astros righty bats with some pop are therefore excellent for tournaments, with Tyler White, Yulieski Gurriel, Martin Maldonado, Evan Gattis and the switch-hitting Marwin Gonzalez all fitting the bill.
  • It could well turn into a pitcher’s duel in Friday’s Battle of the Sox, with Nathan Eovaldi and Michael Kopech taking the hill for Boston and Chicago. Not overly targeting this game, but there’s no hiding Eovaldi’s troubles versus lefty hitters this season overall (.306 average and .363 wOBA allowed). Therefore, Daniel Palka, Nicky Delmonico, Omar Narvaez and the switch-hitting Yolmer Sanchez and Yoan Moncada can all be considered.
  • We can keep the Reds-Cards analysis short and sweet — Homer Bailey is on the hill for Cincy, putting all Cardinals value bats in play from either side of the plate. Bailey is capable of a solid outing from time to time as he’s shown his last two times out, but the probability that he gets tagged early and often significantly outweighs that.
  • The Orioles’ Andrew Cashner has rebounded from a horrific outing against the Rangers to open August and actually put together a decent rest of the month. However, he’s still allowing a .302 average and .384 wOBA on the road, meaning he’s scuffled against all comers away from Camden Yards. Give all value Royals bats consideration, with a particular focus on those with some extra pop like Ryan O’Hearn, Hunter Dozier, Salvador Perez and Adalberto Mondesi.
  • I’ll offer up some more detailed observations on the late slate on Twitter (@jcblanco22) later in the afternoon, but at first glance, there are a couple of games where runs may be hard to come by. However, both Rockies value bats of either handedness and right-handed D-Backs value bats look enticing given their matchups. More specifics to come as we get closer to lock.

Next. DraftKings MLB Picks August 31. dark

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