DraftKings Evening CFB picks September 1: Is Herbert worth the money?

ATLANTA, GA – JANUARY 07: Detail of the College Football Playoff National Championship trophy, along with the helmets of the 2 competing teams, University of Alabama (left) and University of Georgia (right) on January 7, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images) /

DraftKings Evening CFB picks September 1: Is Herbert worth the money?

There are nine games in the evening DraftKings tournament, finishing off our huge college football Saturday. There are three FCS schools in action, and three more that could probably pass as FCS schools. That opens up huge opportunity for the smaller schools, and huge headaches for those of us thinking of using stars against them.

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LAS VEGAS, NV – DECEMBER 16: Quaterback Justin Herbert #10 of the Oregon Ducks runs with the ball against the Boise State Broncos in the Las Vegas Bowl at Sam Boyd Stadium on December 16, 2017 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Boise State won 38-28. (Photo by David Becker/Getty Images) /

Best Bets:

Justin Herbert ($11,100): Herbert isn’t the typical Oregon quarterback in a sense that he doesn’t run like many of his predecessors have. That doesn’t mean he is any less of a scorer for fantasy purposes. Bowling Green was just terrible last year, and this Oregon offense really had trouble finding a groove last year. That likely means they will play for at least three quarters. There is pretty good potential here for Herbert, but this price seems a little steep.

Charlie Brewer ($10,300): Brewer put up some big numbers at times last year. Abilene Christian may have a worse defense than some Big 12(10) teams. Maybe. I still have an issue with paying this much for a quarterback that may only play half the game. Still, you can’t deny what kind of points this offense can put up even when given only a half to do it.

Keytaon Thompson ($9,800): Thompson put up some big numbers last year when Nick Fitzgerald was hurt. Now with Fitzgerald suspended, Thompson will begin the season as the starter. Stephen F. Austin is a pretty good team. Don’t be surprised to see them keep this close. That could give Thompson more run than you would expect in a game against a FCS team.

Middle Tier:

Mason Fine ($9,100): If you haven’t heard of Mason Fine outside of northern Texas, it’s understandable. However, with DFS back in vogue for college football, you need to know who Fine is. He threw for more than $4,000 yards last season, and he gets to pick apart an absolutely dreadful SMU defense in the opener here. We could see a huge game from Fine. Don’t worry, SMU’s offense is good enough to put some points up too. That will keep both QB’s throwing for most of the game.

Ben Hicks ($8,500): Hicks threw for over 3,500 yards and 33 touchdowns last year. For as good as North Texas’ offense could be, their defense had issues. That is going to happen here. This SMU offense can really move the ball in a hurry, just like them. This is going to be hotly contested. SMU is still a name around Dallas, and North Texas has wanted a piece of them for a while. This is going to be a fun one, and I’m not opposed to using both quarterbacks in this one.

Bargain Shoppers:

Wilton Speight ($7,500): Speight wasn’t very good at Michigan, but maybe a change of scenery will do him well. Having Chip Kelly as a coach can’t hurt either. This Cincinnati defense struggled a lot last year. I think Kelly wants to make a bit of a statement here, so I can see Speight playing most of this game.

Feleipe Franks ($6,600): Franks is the starter, and he is more than $1,000 cheaper than his backup. I find that interesting, and a good place to build a lineup. Of course, Franks had his share of struggles last year, but he should be able to work those kinks out against College of Charleston. This isn’t going to be close, but Franks could easily hit value at this price. The talent is there.

Jarret Doege ($6,300): We all know that Oregon doesn’t really do defense. It doesn’t much matter how far behind that Bowling Green is, Doege is going to try to catch up. That could mean fantasy goodness. We didn’t see any huge games out of Doege last year, but he only started three games. Oregon’s defense should provide a good paced practice for him.

DALLAS, TX – SEPTEMBER 9: Xavier Jones #5 of the SMU Mustangs breaks free for a 47 yard touchdown run against the North Texas Mean Green during the second half at Gerald J. Ford Stadium on September 9, 2017 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Tony Brooks-James ($8,200): One reason why Herbert doesn’t run like his predecessors is because of all the track stars in the Oregon backfield. It can make your head spin trying to figure out which one will get the bulk of the carries or the yards, but Brooks-James has the upper hand here right now.

Xavier Jones ($7,600): Jones ran for over 1,000 yards last season. When the SMU offense rolls, Jones rolls. When they struggled, so did he. That means that while Jones isn’t the focal point of the offense, nor can he carry the load by himself, he is a very productive compliment when this offense is moving. They should have no trouble doing just that against North Texas. The over/under on this is 71 for a reason!

Middle Tier:

Greg Bell ($7,400): With Tre Bryant out of the picture, Nebraska’s backfield is likely going to employ a committee approach to open the season. Bell is listed as a costarter with Devine Ozigbo. Ozigbo is a good runner, but fell out of favor with the last coaching staff. We will see where he stands with the new one here. Bell is the safer pick, but Ozigbo is worth a look as well since Akron allowed more than 200 rushing yards per game last year……in the MAC!

JaMycal Hasty ($6,000): Baylor just kept going down the depth chart until they found someone that could run the ball at will. Hasty ran well down the stretch last year until a little fight in the TCU game got him tossed. That will also keep him out of the first half of Baylor’s conference opener per conference rules. However, Hasty wont be limited for the real opener against Abilene Christian. Any Baylor player atop the depth chart is worth a look tonight.

Bargain Shoppers:

Lamical Perine ($5,300): Does the last name sound familiar? He is the cousin of former Oklahoma star and current Washington Redskins running back Samaje Perine. The similarities end there though. Lamical isn’t the bruiser his older cousin is. However, even if he were, we may not know. That’s how inept Florida’s offense was last year. I’m not saying that this offense is all figured out, but I’m a big Florida fan for DFS since all of their prices are so low. I mean, Perine is a starter against a FCS team for just $5,300! What’s not to like?

Mikale Wilbon ($4,600): Wilbon never shouldered any part of this offense by himself last year, but he was a good compliment to just about everything. I usually avoid committee approaches, but Akron was near dead last in run defense last year, and Nebraska has a true freshman starting at QB. They are going to run a lot. Like enough for all three top backs to get you something. With Wilbon and Ozigbo so cheap, I’m inclined to lean that way, but I can’t fault using Bell either.

DALLAS, TX – NOVEMBER 4: James Proche #3 of the SMU Mustangs drops a pass against the UCF Knights during the second half at Gerald J. Ford Stadium on November 4, 2017 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

James Proche ($8,900): There are a lot of targets that went the way of Courtland Sutton that will now go to Proche. He had a good year alongside Sutton, who was a massive target hog. I can see Proche filling the same role that Sutton did. I don’t think he is quite the receiver that Sutton is, but he could look like it against North Texas.

Dillon Mitchell ($8,200): Track stars aren’t relegated to backfield duty in Eugene. Mitchell exploded for 60.2 DraftKings points in the last two games of the season. Mitchell quickly became the favorite target of Justin Herbert, and that should extend into the season. This looks like a night to pay up for receivers. Mitchell is one of my favorite spots to do so.

Denzel Mims ($7,900): This Baylor offense wasn’t nearly as explosive last year, but I think a lot of that had to do with the rash of injuries that they endured. Now that they are all healthy, and playing a horrible team, we should be able to see what Baylor is capable of. Of course, they lost to Liberty last year, so we will see…..

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Middle Tier:

Theo Howard ($7,200): We saw Howard have a nice game against Kansas State in the bowl game. Cincinnati’s pass defense is even worse. He and Speight are going to become fast friends in this offense. The Chip Kelly scheme wont hurt either. There is a lot of potential for Howard here tonight.

Michael Lawrence ($7,000): Fine can’t just throw for 4,000 yards without anyone to throw it to. Lawrence opens the season atop the depth chart, so he seems the most obvious option. This isn’t limited to Lawrence. All of the receivers on both sides in this game are in play. I won’t mention all of them because this article would get really long, and some would say that I am already long winded. An over/under this high is usually reserved for Big 12(10) games.

Bargain Shoppers:

Daytrin Guyton ($5,000): Guyton finished strong last year, and could start strong against Oregon. They can run circles around you, but they can’t always tackle. This is the price range where we look to take a shot on someone to separate us from the pack. Guyton could do that, but there is also a chance that he comes up empty.

Kwadarrius Smith ($4,600): Lost in the hype of the Scott Frost hire is just how bad Nebraska’s defense was last year. If that offense is going to be scoring all the points, well, Akron is going to throw to try and keep up. Smith could be a nice sleeper in this price range. He closed out the year with two 100+ yards games in his last three.

D.J. Fuller ($3,900): Baylor’s offense didn’t magically get better. There is some potential with the Abilene Christian receivers here. They are going to get yards, but I really have no idea from which one. I follow a lot of football, but not them. You can take a shot with one of their receivers and hope to get lucky.

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