Sunday Stratagem: NFL Fanduel Week 1

 Sunday Stratagem is a weekly advice column for Beginner and Intermediate NFL DFS players on Fanduel. My column is driven by statistical analysis and matchup prediction, but ultimately reflects an opinion, and as such, is open to interpretation. The most savvy Fanduelers consult a variety of sources, compile their own statistics, and act on their own instincts and analysis. Players highlighted here may or may not perform as predicted on Sunday — that’s why we play the games!

We’re here! Finally. Seven months seem like a lifetime of Sundays, trudging through golf tournaments and matinee baseball, and now … FOOTBALL!

Hopes are high. Thirty-two fanbases are hopped up on adrenaline and faith that this could be the year (except, maybe, those poor folks in Buffalo). I happen to be in Cleveland for work this week, and even here there is cause for optimism. This place has a buzz — lookout Steelers, if the Browns don’t get you, their fans surely will.

The same goes for fantasy players across the land. Time to hit that GPP jackpot. Double or nothing. But before you get too excited, consider this: According to quora.com, a Rubik’s Cube has 43,252,003,274,489,856,000 combinations. Yeah, that’s 43 quintillion! Fifty-four squares on six sides. We have more choices than that just at the running back position. Throw in the FLEX position on FanDuel this year, and you would do better to try to catalogue every star in the Milky Way with the naked eye, than fathom the seemingly infinite number of combinations you have for your Week 1 lineups.

Your chance of catching the one? Slight. But not to despair. Even if you’re a DFS newbie, with a lot of research and a little bit of luck, you can navigate the vast fantasy gridiron landscape and land in the green this Sunday. Or, at the very least, have a good time trying, and learn (yes, you will make mistakes) along the way.

Aside from being high on optimism and the prospect of kicking the season off with a hard hitting lineup that others can only watch and weep, Week 1 is just plain fun. So many unknowns. Sure, we’ve had a taste with preseason. A watered down version of the real deal. But now its time to open up the playbook for games that count, and anything could happen.

You can take the first step toward educating yourself for next week’s action here, and get a leg up on the competition. At the very least, if you’re a doubter, you can take my advice as a lesson in what not to do. Time will tell. Let’s start at the top with our quarterbacks.     

Here is a great place to avoid the chalk and differentiate your lineup from the pool. You will need to spend a little money and risk some chalky picks at RB, so look for value in the matchups here. I actually like Joe Flacco ($6100) straight out of the gate. Flacco is by far the lowest priced starter Week 1, and has a decent matchup at home with the Bills in town, a pass-catching back in Alex Collins, and some new weapons in Michael Crabtree and Willie Snead IV, not to mention some real downfield big-play potential in John Brown. He has looked solid in preseason action and is super cheap based on last year’s lackluster 12.4 FPPG.

If that’s too deep of a dive for you, think about (I know, I know, it’s hard to say), ahem, Blake Bortles ($6600). Before you kick me to the curb, consider that Bortles was fighting a wrist injury all of last year, that he had it repaired in the off-season, and has looked more accurate than ever (not necessarily hard to do) in limited preseason action so far. Add a pass-catching back like Leonard Fournette to open things up, and you can find a super cheap stack here and save money for your RB and FLEX spots. Consider that Marqise Lee is on IR, and expect Dede Westbrook ($5300) and Keelan Cole ($4500) to get a ton of looks at basement prices. All of a sudden, going Bortling in a lineup or two doesn’t seem quite so bad. Add in a road tilt against the Giants, who anchored the league against the pass last season, and this has high ceiling potential.

 If you feel you have to pay up here, Philip Rivers ($7500) opens at home against Kansas City’s 28th ranked pass defense last year, is not shy to dump off to Melvin Gordon when necessary, and has a potential monster in Keenan Allen. For just $100 more, you can test the waters with Kirk Cousins ($7600) in his new digs in Minnesota, also kicking off the campaign at home, versus San Francisco. Throw in the dynamic duo of Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, not to mention a viable tight end in Kyle Rudolph (think Jordan Reed, who, when he happened to be healthy, was primed for red-zone targets with Cousins under center). High floor here, and a super high ceiling that’s hard to ignore.

Speaking of Redskins, I might even be inclined to roll the dice with Alex Smith on the road against Arizona’s iffy-at- best pass prevention. Oh, so you think the Skins are going to run the ball? Don’t think for an instant that 33-year-old Adrian Peterson’s depleted gas tank is about to power through the Cardinal’s defense. Quite the contrary. With Derrius Guice out (ACL) before he ever had a chance to get in, and Samaje Perine nursing an ankle already, Smith will be slinging it plenty and often. And he can run a little, too.

I might also think Marcus Mariota ($7200) at Miami, or Andy Dalton ($6800) at Indy. Not to linger in the pocket too long here, but you get the point. Do your homework, and get your value at QB so you can pay up down the line.

Let’s hand it off to our RB strategy. Simply put, play it safe at RB, which means paying up. We will save more for our FLEX slot with our receivers, but this isn’t the place to roll the dice. Not in the first week, not with so many top backs to choose from. You may be thinking back to Week 1 of last year, if you played the Thursday slate, like me, and did not have, also like me, a rookie by the name of Kareem Hunt on your roster. Hard to forget watching an unexpected 246 total yards from scrimmage and three TDs to go with them, against the Patriots no less, put a sizable dent in your DFS dreams long before Sunday even arrived. I hear you. If you want to take down a GPP, you have to take some risk. And we will. We have already demonstrated some separation potential with our QB strategy. Go for the guaranteed points here.

For one thing, if you were planning to go hunting for this year’s Week 1 surprise breakout, your options are already hobbled. Guice is gone. Saquon Barkley is limping into the season at best. Sony Michel has a bum knee. Rashaad Penny has some potential but Seattle’s offense goes to Denver to start. No thanks. Cleveland’s Nick Chubb is bound to sparkle down the road, but he has depth chart issues behind Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson Jr., opening against the Steelers … um, pass there too.

If you have to have that maybe new diamond in the rough, I would hit up newly-minted Bronco Royce Freeman ($6000) versus Seattle. Or, like I said, just eat some chalk and move on.

With no Todd Gurley on Sunday’s slate and Le’veon Bell in flux, holding out until the last second for a fatter wallet, consider these top options instead. Alvin Kamara ($8700) gets the Bucs at home behind an aging Drew Brees in a Saints offense that has transitioned toward the run, and no Mark Ingram to share the backfield. Le’Veon Bell ($8700) has the highest price tag ( if he plays), on the road at Cleveland, watch the news here. If Bell is out, James Conner ($5000) had a nice preseason and could be a sneaky play that allows you to pay up at WR. Another pass-catching back primed to go off out of the gate is second-year man Christian McCaffrey ($7500), who gets Dallas at home.

Others to consider are Leonard Fournette ($8000) at the Giants’ mediocre-at-best run defense, David Johnson ($8000) with the Skins in town, or Melvin Gordon ($8100) and the aforementioned Kareem Hunt ($8000) going head-to-head in LA. Bottom line, pay up for proven performance, watch your matchups, and make sure you get your points here, as you are likely to be at a huge disadvantage otherwise.

Okay. So we just blew a ton of salary on our backs, and feel pretty good about it, despite having more chalk on our hands than a gymnast on the uneven bars. Not to worry. This isn’t gymnastics, and we can save at receiver as well as tight end and still perform well enough in position to get that money-in-the-bank FLEX slot filled with prime talent.

I won’t spend a ton of time here, as the choices are seemingly endless; this is where your own research and analysis come in to play with a lot on the line. The biggest point to consider is finding premier target volume and matchup potential at WR2 pricing. Look for games where the top option is likely to be double covered (Julio Jones and Deandre Hopkins come immediately to mind), and spots where slot guys are primed to go off.

Some guys to tinker with are Ju Ju Smith-Schuster ($7000), who may be fed until he can’t eat anymore in Cleveland, especially if Antonio Brown’s quad issue is understated, though it looks like Brown will be good to go. A Brown double-team is likely regardless. Other considerations include Michael Crabtree ($6600), who makes a nice value stack with Flacco and has shown he still has that downfield threat and developed great rapport with his new QB in preseason, and Jarvis Landry ($6600), who has WR1 potential, especially with the Josh Gordon situation yet to fully unfold, on a revamped Browns team hungry to prove itself at home against a division rival. Will Fuller V ($6400) gets Deshaun Watson back, and starts in New England in a tilt that has shootout potential, and could easily steal targets from Hopkins, plus he is always a threat to break one and take it to the house. For some deep value that could also pay multiple dividends, Jamison Crowder ($6200) and Dede Westbrook ($5300) both have high ceiling potential.

Tight end is a little bit tougher with the top options off the table. Again, do your own research. Only you know how much you have left to spend based on how you rostered at QB and WR. Some middle tier guys I like that fit my budget are Kyle Rudolph ($5900) catching some rock down the middle in the red zone courtesy of Mr. Cousins, Jack Doyle ($5600), albeit with a little bit shaky Andrew Luck back in the saddle, and rookie David Njoku ($5300), who exploded for two TDs in week one of preseason. There are several other decent options, go with your gut as you look at the slate, and stay informed.

Let’s jump over FLEX just long enough to talk a little D. Like the long-lost kicker, DST is a bit of a crap shoot in fantasy. Nobody can predict a pick six, and even the worst teams will run one back every now and then. Look for turnover hawks and sacks, matchups in the trenches, and play it as safe as you can. Make sure this dart in the dark at least hits the board. I like the Saints ($4600) at home against a backup QB in, albeit veteran, Ryan Fitzpatrick, but the Bucs look better than last year on offense, at least on paper. The Ravens ($4800) are at the top of the heap on price and justifiably so with the lowly Bills calling. We also have the formidable turnover machine in the Jags ($4700) on the road against a Giants team with questions in the backfield, and the Chargers ($4300) may be in a good spot with rookie Patrick Mahomes II making his rookie debut on the road (doesn’t always go so well) and a strong pass rush and secondary to boot. Pick one and watch your injury reports for last minute adjustments.

 FLEX strategy on Fanduel is critical now that the kicker is gone, and we have talked about just about everything else instead. Actually, it only seems that way. Now that we have established a strategy that pays for points where you have to have them and balances risk with reward elsewhere, we not only have plenty of money leftover to fill our FLEX slot, but a limited number of options, because we fully intend to use all of our salary cap and pay up for proven performance. That said, matchups are key, as always. Live the chalk here and get your points. This is PPR at its finest, so if you go RB get one of the top pass catchers that you passed on earlier.

 Any off the top WR options will work. I like Hopkins ($8800) at New England, A.J. Green ($8400) at Indy, and Allen ($8000) at KC. If you didn’t save as much money along the way, and like everything else as is, you may be inclined to go tight end here, but that is a move I wouldn’t recommend. I would rather tweak something else, at least Week 1, and pay up at FLEX. With the Texans coming to New England, Rob Gronkowski ($7900) is a good play but also a risky one and remember, you want a sure thing here. The only other viable tight end for a potential FLEX role is Travis Kelce, a huge risk on the road with, as we have said, a rookie getting his feet wet making the delivery.

As with any fantasy endeavor, there are outliers. And one is likely to come crashing your opening week party just like Kareem Hunt did last year. If you play a lot of lineups, take some calculated risks along the way and maybe you will be ‘that guy’ this time around. Just make sure you make it look like you knew it from the start. Nobody hates an unexpected expert worse than an unexpected also-ran, watching your dust settle as you motor off to the bank. More casual players in GPP and cash tournaments, go for the sure thing where you have to, take your risky shots but don’t do it recklessly, and have fun! It’s a long season and we are just at the start here with a lot to learn — good luck, and look for my weekly advice every Wednesday on Fantasy CPR.

Check out my Monday Morning Quarterback column each week for a recap of Sunday’s optimal lineup, analysis of why we won or lost, and get a jump on the competition for next week.