DraftKings Early MLB Picks September 3: Should we pay for Max?

CHICAGO, IL – AUGUST 31: A tarp sits on the field during a rainy delay in the third inning of a game between the Chicago White Sox and the Boston Red Sox on August 31, 2018 at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by David Banks/Getty Images) /

DraftKings Early MLB Picks September 3: Should we pay for Max?

Our Monday is split up as well for Labor Day. Seven games will be laboring in the early DraftKings tournament today, making it the larger of the two. There is a small two game afternoon slate, then five games in the evening. Who needs the NFL when we can have a full day of baseball? We have one ace, a couple of pitchers that are pitching well, then a thin middle tier. Where can we find a bargain?

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There is a good chance of a delayed start in Chicago, but once that clears out, it should be fine. The roof will likely need to be closed in Milwaukee, Houston, and Miami.

The only wind is a 12 mph crosswind in Chicago.

We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!

These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on!

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LOS ANGELES, CA – AUGUST 22: Jack Flaherty #32 of the St. Louis Cardinals pitches to the Los Angeles Dodgers during the first inning at Dodger Stadium on August 22, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Max Scherzer ($12,200): Scherzer’s numbers against the Cardinals aren’t very good. They are hitting .265 off of Max in 68 at bats with two homers, eight runs, and 16 strikeouts, which is a pretty low total for him. However, it is hard to fade Scherzer given his dominant numbers and dominant strikeout numbers. I can see this either way. I can justify paying up for Max, or I can justify fading him since he surrendered five runs over his last two starts, both to the Phillies.

Jack Flaherty ($10,200): The Nationals haven’t scored a lot of runs lately, and Flaherty’s home and road splits are nearly identical. The strikeouts are there for Flaherty. My only thing about playing him at this price is whether the Cardinals are limiting his innings. They already pushed Flaherty back a day. There has been no official word on whether the Cardinals have him on a hard innings limit or not. I wouldn’t expect Flaherty to go more than about six innings here, so it could be hard for him to get the kind of point total that we want for the price.

Middle Tier:

Trevor Williams ($8,500): Williams has a 2.13 ERA in his last ten starts. He is really cruising right now, so I’m tempted to ignore his bad stats against the Reds. Williams still picked up 13.4 DraftKings points against the Reds earlier this year, but he was lucky to get out of that with only two runs allowed in 5.1 innings. He allowed 11 baserunners. I don’t really want to pay up for Williams because of the lack of strikeouts, but the potential is here for another really good game.

Dallas Keuchel ($7,900): Most of the lefty killers for the Twins are gone, as is evident by Keuchel’s career numbers against them now. The Twins that are left are hitting a decent .245 against Keuchel, but they only have four runs in 53 at bats with 17 strikeouts. Keuchel carries a strong probability for the win and very good strikeout potential into this one, so I like him quite a bit at this price.

Nathan Eovaldi ($7,600): Eovaldi has pitched pretty well against the current Braves, only allowing a .212 average in 66 at bats with three homers and five runs, but only nine strikeouts. Eovaldi has pitched very well in Boston so far with a 1.77 ERA there in three starts. There is decent potential, but we all know how dangerous this Atlanta offense can be. There is a healthy amount of risk involved.

Bargain Pitchers:

Vince Velasquez ($7,400): The Marlins are only hitting .229 off of Velasquez with one homer and three runs in 70 at bats with 18 strikeouts. Velasquez has also been a better pitcher on the road. I understand that the strikeout upside isn’t really that high, but this is too cheap for Velasquez in this situation. He doesn’t have huge upside, but the floor is so high that you can justify going here in GPP formats.

Reynaldo Lopez ($7,300): The numbers for Lopez are nothing to write home about, but he has already faced the Tigers a staggering five times this year. Lopez has only allowed 12 runs (11 earned) in 30.2 innings. He could put up good numbers, but there is very little upside here.

Michael Fulmer ($7,100): Fulmer has pitched well against the White Sox this year. He has not allowed a run in ten innings while striking out eight in two starts. Obviously, we would like to see Fulmer go deeper into games, but the Tigers have no reason to push him. The White Sox are hitting .271 overall off of Fulmer in 85 at bats, but they only have two runs without a homer and 15 strikeouts. If you are chasing homers, go elsewhere. If you are chasing strikeouts, there is upside here, though Fulmer likely wont go more than five innings.

DENVER, CO – APRIL 20: Kyle Schwarber #12 of the Chicago Cubs is congratulated at the plate by Anthony Rizzo #44 and Kris Bryant #17 after hitting a 3 RBI home run in the sixth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on April 20, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

Chicago Cubs vs. Zach Davies:

The Cubs are hitting .273 with six homers and 24 runs in just 194 at bats off of Davies. Davies pitched well against the Cubs early in the year, but he has also not started a game since May 29th. Davies likely wont be pushed hard here, but the Cubs may knock him out early anyway. Both Kyle Schwarber and Kris Bryant have homered off of him twice. Victor Caratini and Willson Contreras have the others. Addison Russell is 7-20 with five RBI, so he is worth a look if he cracks the lineup.

Houston Astros vs. Kyle Gibson:

I would have stacked Rangers against Gibson, so I’m thrilled to stack a healthy Astros lineup against him. The price makes it a lot harder than it would have been using the Rangers yesterday, but it may be worth our while to find a way to cram as many Astros in there as possible. Cheaper options like Marwin Gonzalez can help keep the cost down, but I still think we need the core of Altuve, Correa, and Bregman. It’s hard to pass on Tyler White right now, and the power of Evan Gattis is very tempting. I really don’t see a wrong turn here.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cole Hamels:

I was pretty surprised to see how hard the Brewers have hit Cole Hamels considering all of the lefties in this lineup. Ryan Braun is just $3,900, and he is 13-37(.351) with three homers and five RBI against Hamels. Hernan Perez is 5-8 with a homer against Hamels. Christian Yelich is 6-19(.316) with a homer and five RBI, so he and his hot streak are worth a look as well. Jonathan Schoop has a homer off of Hamels from his days in the A.L. as well. I find myself wanting to throw all the righties out there though, so Lorenzo Cain is definitely worth a look too.

ATLANTA, GA – SEPTEMBER 01: Gregory Polanco #25 of the Pittsburgh Pirates is congratulated for hitting a home run by Starling Marte #6 at SunTrust Park on September 1, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Stephen Nowland/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Freddie Freeman is the only current Brave that has homered off of Eovdaldi. If you are looking for someone to join the ranks, the most likely is probably Ronald Acuna.

Touki Toussaint pitched well in his first major league start, so there is a chance that he could put together another strong outing. However, Boston is still a strong lineup. There’s no question that Toussaint could shut them down, but in Fenway there is about an equal chance that he gets knocked around.

Matt Harvey has been smoked by the Pirates this year, but the Pirate offense and Matt Harvey seem to be going in opposite directions now. Harvey has pitched well for the Reds, and the Pirates are not scoring a lot of runs lately. I’m going to resist the urge to stack just in case, but Gregory Polanco still warrants a look. He is 4-16 with two homers and three RBI against Harvey. Starling Marte, Corey Dickerson, Colin Moran, and Josh Bell have the other homers.

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Middle Tier:

Marcell Ozuna has both homers for the Cardinals against Max Scherzer and four of the eight RBI.

Jose Urena has struggled against the Phillies in his career, but I just can’t justify a stack in this stadium with anything less than an elite offense. The Phillies are not elite. I like Nick Willams, who has two homers and four RBI off of Urena already. Carlos Santana, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Cesar Hernandez have the others. I wouldn’t go more than two or three deep with Phillies, but there is decent potential here.

Scott Schebler and Scooter Gennett are the places to go after Trevor Williams, if at all. Billy Hamilton is worth a look as well.

Bargain Shoppers:

Martin Prado has the only homer and two of the three RBI against Vince Velasquez. However, I think any Marlins exposure for me will be with Riddle.

Honestly, I’m considering playing Victor Martinez every time he is in the lineup for the duration of the season. He is hitting very well right now, and he wants to finish his career strong.

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