MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Monday, Sept. 3 All Slates

MLB DFS Bargain Bin– Monday, Sept. 3 All Slates

Welcome to a Labor Day edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the ledger and touch on where the weakest pitching spots might be, and by extension, where there may be some value bats to consider. Additionally, I’ll look to identify where a value arm or two might be intersecting with an offense that’s running cold or is otherwise inefficient against a certain handedness.

Before we go MLB DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content:

• The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
• Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
• In this DFS MLB Bargain Bin Quick Hits version, I’ll suggest players that are typically value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft). Naturally, check final pricing before making your lineup decisions, as I am not listing salaries in this edition.
• This is not a position-by-position breakdown, but rather, I’m just identifying games where I think there’s value players in potentially favorable fantasy spots.
• The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.

With those housekeeping items out of the way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on Monday’s slates!

MLB DFS Bargain Bin– Monday, Sept. 3 All Slates Bargain Pitcher

Trevor Williams, PIT vs. CIN

Williams stands out as one of the best combinations of price, strong recent performance and matchup on the huge Labor Day slate. The right-hander has rattled off four straight quality starts, and he’s accomplished the feat in six of the last seven trips to the mound overall. He’s been impressive in both his home park and on the road, and he’s coming off a month of August in which he generated an outstanding 1.16 ERA, .204 BAA, .256 wOBA, 1.00 WHIP and jaw-dropping 100.0 percent strand rate across five starts.

Williams carries a solid 3.31 ERA, .235 BAA and .291 wOBA over 81.2 innings at PNC Park this season, while also allowing a minuscule 8.7 percent HR/FB rate and pedestrian 28.8 percent hard contact rate. Meanwhile, the Reds have struggled against right-handed pitching outside of their hitter-friendly home park recently. Cincinnati comes in with a mediocre .268 wOBA, 64 wRC+, -16.4 wRAA and .223 average, along with a 23.2 percent strikeout rate, versus righties on the road over the last month. Moreover, they’re also dead last in baseball against righties on the road over that span with a 27.2 percent hard contact rate.

Williams has now given up two or fewer earned runs in eight consecutive starts, an incredible stretch of pitching during which he’s also racked up five wins. He would appear to have a good chance at adding another one to his record Monday, as opposite number Matt Harvey has allowed a 7.36 ERA (including five homers) to the Pirates across 14.2 innings over three starts this season. The most outing in that sample was a forgettable July 22 turn when he gave up eight earned runs on eight hits — including four homers — over just 3.2 innings.

ALSO CONSIDER:

Reynaldo Lopez, CWS vs. DET

Erasmo Ramirez, SEA vs. BAL

MLB DFS Bargain Bin– Monday, Sept. 3 All Slates Quick Hits

• The Red Sox-Braves pitching matchup is an intriguing one, as Touki Toussaint draws the start for Atlanta after a dominating season in the minors this season. The right-hander has racked up a whopping 163 strikeouts over 136.1 innings at both Double-A Mississippi and Triple-A Gwinnett, effectively stymieing both sides of the plate in the process. Therefore, you can give cheap Red Sox that hit righties well (i.e. Mitch Moreland, Ian Kinsler) a run in tournaments, but I’m not overly high on Boston bats per se.

• On the other side, Nathan Eovaldi takes the hill for the Red Sox, and he’s been less than reliable recently after an impressive first pair of starts in Boston. Eovaldi allows a .341 wOBA to left-handed hitters, so don’t hesitate to roll out affordable lefty Braves bats such as the switch-hitting Johan Camargo, Ender Inciarte and Nick Markakis particular consideration.

• The Phillies’ Vince Velasquez has given up 14 homers overall this season, and 11 of those have come off lefty bats. With that being the case, the likes of Derek Dietrich, J.T. Riddle, Rafael Ortega and Magneuris Sierra can all be considered in terms of affordable Marlins bats.

• Meanwhile, the Marlins’ Jose Urena has been particularly vulnerable to right-handed hitters at home, allowing a .274 average, .322 wOBA and 39.7 percent hard contact rate to that handedness. Since Marlins Park is far from a great home-run environment, solid all-around and affordable righty Phillies bats such as Maikel Franco and Wilson Ramos are especially appealing.

• The Reds’ Matt Harvey displayed some vulnerability in his last start, yielding five earned runs on 11 hits over four innings to the Brewers. Harvey continues to allow a .304 average and .373 wOBA to lefty bats on the road, so pay particular attention to the likes of affordable Pirates such as Colin Moran, Adam Frazier, Corey Dickerson and Gregory Polanco (who already has two homers against Harvey in his career).

• I’m not too overly excited in terms of value opportunities in the Twins-Astros tilt, as both Kyle Gibson and Dallas Keuchel have relatively solid metrics all the way around. However, worth noting that Keuchel has allowed 24 extra-base hits (15 doubles, nine homers) to right-handed hitters at home. Therefore, affordable righty or switch-hitting Minnesota bats with some pop like Logan Forsythe, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano, Tyler Austin and Robbie Grossman all deserve consideration.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin– Monday, Sept. 3 All Slates Quick Hits (cont.)

• The Cubs’ Cole Hamels has been lights out since joining the team, so not going to overly focus on Brewers bats by any means. However, can’t help but note that both Ryan Braun (.351 average against Hamels over 38 plate appearances) and Hernan Perez (.625 average over nine plate appearances) have particularly enjoyed success against him.

• On the other side of the matchup. the Brewers’ Zach Davies will make his first big-league start in more than three months Monday, which could bode very well for Cubs value bats. Davies has been hit hard by both sides of the plate this season, so cheaper Chicago options like Tommy La Stella, Addison Russell, Ben Zobrist, Willson Contreras and Ian Happ should all be considered.

• The Tigers’ Michael Fulmer has had extensive troubles on the road this season, as evidenced by a 6.06 ERA and .373 wOBA. As those numbers imply, both sides of the plate have pummeled him, but left-handed hitters have especially gotten to him (.310 average, .411 wOBA allowed). I’d certainly consider the likes of Daniel Palka, Nicky Delmonico, Omar Narvaez, Yoan Moncada and Yolmer Sanchez in particular.

• The Rockies’ Tyler Anderson’s train seemingly derailed in August, when he generated a horrific 11.39 ERA and allowed nine homers across five starts. Anderson’s metrics at Coors Field were especially impressive early in the season, but recent struggles have blemished those a bit. Therefore, I’d consider affordable Giants from both sides of the plate, as Anderson has also had issues with lefty bats all season. Evan Longoria, Brandon Crawford and Chase d’Arnaud all especially stand out due to their numbers against southpaws.

• The Giants’ Madison Bumgarner has a fairly solid track record at Coors Field over the last four seasons and has been effective overall, so not as high as I might typically be on the Rockies at home. Nevertheless, Carlos Gonzalez is always worthy of consideration for tournaments versus Bumgarner, as he owns five homers and a .308 average against him over 69 career plate appearances.

• The Yankees’ C.C. Sabathia has been a more vulnerable pitcher on the road, as nine of the 16 homers he’s yielded this season have come away from Yankee Stadium. Cheap Athletics bats that hit lefties well — such as Stephen Piscotty, Chad Pinder and Ramon Laureano — all can be considered. Also keep an eye on a Josh Phegley appearance in the lineup, as he boasts a .455 average over 11 career plate appearances against Sabathia.

• The Athletics’ Trevor Cahill has hit some turbulence over his last two starts, and things don’t get any easier with the Yankees in town Monday. Andrew McCutchen has an especially strong track record versus Cahill (.429 average over 19 plate appearances and only one strikeout), but Cahill’s excellent home track record (.207 wOBA, .156 BAA and 0.85 ERA over 52.2 innings) puts me off any other cheap Yankees.

• Progressive Field could have a busy scoreboard Monday, as Jakob Junis and Adam Plutko take the mound for the Royals and Indians, respectively. Cheap lefty bats on both sides are of particular interest, as Junis has allowed a .315 average and .389 wOBA versus left-handed hitters on the road, while Plutko has yielded a .343 average, .457 wOBA and 45.8 percent hard contact rate to lefty bats at home. On the Royals side, that means the likes of Alex Gordon, Ryan O’Hearn, Brian Goodwin, Brett Phillips and the switch-hitting Adalberto Mondesi are in play. For the Indians, Yonder Alonso, Jason Kipnis, Melky Cabrera and Greg Allen come into focus.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin– Monday, Sept. 3 All Slates Quick Hits (cont.)

• Yonny Chirinos is slated to be the Rays’ primary pitcher after opener Ryne Stanek exits as the opener Monday, and the former has particularly struggled on the road versus both sides of the plate (.369 wOBA allowed to lefty bats, .359 wOBA allowed to righty hitters). Therefore, consider cheap Blue Jays of either handedness such as Lourdes Gurriel, Billy McKinney, Randal Grichuk and Kevin Pillar in play, along with any other affordable options.

• The Blue Jays’ Marcus Stroman has been a hard guy to figure out this season, but he’s been relatively steady at home. Therefore, not overly high on Rays cheap bats, although worth noting that Willy Adames, C.J. Cron and Carlos Gomez all have strong histories versus Stroman over modest samples.
• With Matt Shoemaker and rookie Jeffrey Springs taking the hill for the Angels and Rangers, respectively, at Globe Life Park on Monday, this game becomes a potentially excellent source of value on both sides. Shoemaker has a very small major-league sample this season, but he had trouble with both handedness of hitter in 2017. I see no reason not to roll out any cheap Rangers bats that are in the lineup as a result, especially in the hitter-friendly environment.
• Meanwhile, the lefty Springs has actually much more trouble with same-handed matchups early in his rookie season (.318 average, .377 wOBA over 24 left-handed batters faced), something that was also an issue at the Double-A level for him. I’d therefore give Kole Calhoun particular consideration on the Angels as a result.
• Not overly excited about targeting the D-Backs’ Zack Godley, but worth noting both Wil Myers and Hunter Renfroe have solid histories against him. Godley also tends to have more issues with lefty batters at home (.325 wOBA allowed) but doesn’t allow many home runs to them, so a solid lefty bat like Eric Hosmer and Travis Jankowski might be as far as I go there, and in large-field tournaments at that.
• More confident on the other side of the matchup, as Bryan Mitchell takes the hill for the Padres. Mitchell hasn’t had an answer for either handedness of hitter, and the fact he’ll face the potent D-Backs lineup in Chase Field isn’t going to help his cause whatsoever. Give the likes of Nick Ahmed, Daniel Descalso, Steven Souza, Jr., A.J. Pollock and Eduardo Escobar consideration, along with whichever cheap catcher is in the lineup for Arizona.
• The Orioles’ Josh Rogers has had trouble in the early going against righty bats over a small sample (.350 average, .380 wOBA over 21 batters). However, I’d give any affordable Mariners who have good CXwOBA’s against lefties (Kyle Seager, Ryon Healy, Ben Gamel, Mike Zunino) consideration, in addition to more expensive options.
• And finally, although I recommended the Mariners’ Erasmo Ramirez as an alternative pitcher option, I wouldn’t be against rostering a one-off cheap lefty Baltimore bat such as Chris Davis or the switch-hitting Jonathan Villar against him.

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