DraftKings MLB Picks September 4: Verlander should dominate

DENVER, CO – JUNE 23: Heavy skies move in over the stadium as rain is about to delay the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Colorado Rockies in the second inning at Coors Field on June 23, 2015 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images) /

DraftKings MLB Picks September 4: Verlander should dominate

We have a massive 15 game DraftKings slate coming off of our holiday weekend. This is the unofficial start of fall, and it means that baseball gets much more difficult. Why? Roster expansion. With teams carrying up to 40 players, we really have to be diligent about checking lineups before the respective games lock. There are also some youngsters trying to make a name for themselves that can really help us separate from the pack.

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There is a slight chance of rain in Arlington and in Coors, but it would only cause minor delays. Both games should play.

There is a brisk 12 mph breeze blowing in at Coors, but it likely wont matter. We also have the breeze out in Oakland, but that wont really matter either.

We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!

These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on!

For you first time players, if you would like a free shot at a million dollars, use this link for the referral bonus with your first deposit of $5 or more! You will receive a free entry into the Fantasy Football Millionaire contest on opening weekend!

MINNEAPOLIS, MN – AUGUST 20: Lucas Giolito #27 of the Chicago White Sox delivers a pitch against the Minnesota Twins during the first inning of the game on August 20, 2018 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. This is a make up game from the weather postponed game on April 15, 2018. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Justin Verlander ($12,300): I don’t care about the past stats here because Joe Mauer has really good numbers against Verlander, but he is not a power threat anymore, so using him seems like too much risk for no reward. If you take Mauer’s numbers out, The Twins are just 9-68 with three RBI and 26 strikeouts. The Twins offense is offensive right now. I can’t even watch. Worse yet, I don’t even want to watch. Verlander is completely worth the money against this team right now.

Mike Clevinger ($11,000): The Royals are hitting just .190 against Clevinger in 84 at bats with two homers, six runs, and a nice 28 strikeouts.Clevinger has 57.6 DraftKings points in three starts against the Royals this year. That may be a little below what we want for this price, but the strikeout potential makes him worth paying for in GPP formats. There are probably more sure things for cash games.

Rich Hill ($10,000): The Mets are only hitting .182 in 44 at bats against Hill with two homers, four runs, and a staggering 19 strikeouts. Hill has finally found his rhythm after a slow start. Facing a Mets offense that hasn’t really hit anyone well, there is clear potential here.

German Marquez ($9,300): There isn’t much left of the Giants offense anymore. Most stats say to stay away here, but Marquez has a 2.70 ERA over his last ten starts. Not only that, but he has been dominating, not just keeping runs off the board. He has 80 strikeouts in those ten starts! The current Giants are hitting a robust .439 off of him, but I don’t care. This kind of domination transcends past stats.

Middle Tier:

Mike Minor ($7,700): Minor has pitched very well at home with a 3.30 ERA in 13 starts there. This is an Angels team with a lot of right handed hitters, but a lot of the power is hurt even though Trout is back. I would say that it is pretty likely that Upton wont be in the lineup. With Pujols out, those are two huge missing pieces. If Minor can work around Trout, there is plenty of value here.

Jake Arrieta ($7,400): Arrieta has struggled in his last couple of outings, but I still think there is decent potential in that huge park in Miami. The Marlins have done pretty well against Arrieta so far this year, so there is some risk involved here. Overall, the Marlins are hitting just .185 in 65 at bats with one homer, but they do have seven runs and just eight strikeouts.

Sam Gaviglio ($7,000): Gaviglio got smoked by the Rays, twice, in Tampa, but he still holds a 2.68 ERA in nine home starts. There is risk here, but Gaviglio has held his own against much better offenses than this Rays squad so long as he is in Toronto. I wouldn’t trust him anywhere else, but so long as Gaviglio is in Toronto, he is worth a look.

Bargain Pitchers:

Wade Miley ($6,600): The Cubs are only hitting .233 in 80 at bats against Miley with two homers and only five runs. We all know that Miley doesn’t strike out anyone, so he’s not my favorite play, but if you are chasing a couple of juicy stacks and are going with two bargain pitchers, Miley is pretty safe. He has gone over 20 DraftKings points twice in the last three games.

Lucas Giolito ($6,300): Say hello to your chalk play of the night. Giolito has racked up 92.1 DraftKings points over his last four starts. Maybe twice against Detroit and once against the Twins aren’t that impressive, but his domination of Boston at home in his last start means that we can trust Giolito for the duration of the season. He finally has it figured out, especially against the Tigers. Giolito has dominated them twice in the last four starts.

Jalen Beeks ($6,000): Beeks looks in line to take over for the opener tonight. As with last night, there is pretty good potential here against Toronto. Beeks has a 2.63 ERA since August 1st, and like most of Tampa’s staff, seems to thrive while pitching five or six innings after someone else opens the game. Beeks doens’t have a lot of strikeout potential, but he has double digit DraftKings points in every appearance since the beginning of August. I like that for this price!

Cody Reed ($5,000): Reed is nothing special in the sense that he doesn’t strike out a lot of batters, and likely wont go deep into the game since he has worked in relief most of the season. However, Reed has pitched well there, and was decent in his last start. The Pirates are hitless in 12 at bats against Reed in relief so far with three strikeouts. There is decent potential here for the price.

HOUSTON, TX – SEPTEMBER 03: Alex Bregman #2 of the Houston Astros celebrates with Carlos Correa #1 after hitting a home run in the first inning against the Minnesota Twins at Minute Maid Park on September 3, 2018 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /

Cleveland Indians vs. Danny Duffy:

Duffy has been much better on the road, but in three starts against Cleveland this year, he has a dreadful 10.80 ERA. The Indians have roughed up Duffy for 18 runs in those three starts. Yan Gomes has smacked three homers against Duffy already, and could be a huge bargain here. Jose Ramirez, Brandon Guyer, Lindor, Edwin, Melky Cabrera, and Jason Kipnis have all homered off of Duffy as well. Anyone in the Cleveland lineup should be considered dangerous tonight.

Boston Red Sox vs. Sean Newcomb:

Newcomb has been hit hard lately. This is not the team to be facing when you are having issues. Boston has a ton of power, but they have struggled against lefties on the road at times. That said, Newcomb’s 5.89 ERA in his last ten starts has me leaning towards using Boston hitters. I don’t know if I’m going to pay up for Mookie, but J.D. Martinez looks good here, as does Bogaerts. Putting Eduardo Nunez, Steve Pearce, and whoever catches can be a way to keep the cost of the stack down.

Texas Rangers vs. Andrew Heaney:

The Rangers have destroyed Heaney so far. They are hitting .403 in 77 at bats with six homers and 19 runs. A trip to Arlington with the heat and humidity isn’t going to help Heaney’s cause any. Robinson Chirinos and Adrian Beltre both have a pair of homers against Heaney. DeShields and Elvis Andrus have the other two homers. Joey Gallo is 3-4 against Heaney, and is hitting lefties well lately. Honestly, every Ranger looks good tonight.

Chicago White Sox vs. Francisco Liriano:

You simply cannot trust Liriano right now against anyone. The White Sox have a lot of right handed power that we may want to chase here. Welington Castillo has homered twice off of Liriano already. Tim Anderson and Daniel Palka each have one. Yoan Moncada, Avi Garcia, and Matt Davidson are all worth a look. If Ryan Cordell sneaks into the top two thirds of the lineup, he could be a sneaky play.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Erick Fedde:

Fedde is making his return from the DL to replace the departed Gio Gonzalez. The results wont be any better. Fedde has mostly struggled in his time in the majors. Matt Carpenter is pretty much a must play right now. I also like the power potential of Paul DeJong, Jose Martinez, and Harrison Bader. Yadier Molina is worth a look as well.

Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins:

The Twins are going with Trevor May opening a bullpen day, Rays style. The problem with this is that the Twins bullpen is horrible. In their bullpen day on Saturday, the Twins gave up 18 runs to the Rangers. You can start anyone 1-9 in the Astros lineup. Hell, 11 different Rangers scored on Saturday. You can even use guys that don’t start against a bullpen that is this bad.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Jason Vargas:

Life was so much easier when I didn’t have to consider a Dodgers stack. Now here we are, back here against a tomato can that the Dodgers have hit well in the past. I keep expecting Vargas to blow up again at some point. He isn’t as good as he has pitched in his last three starts. This would seem to be the place to attack since the Dodgers are hitting .317 in 63 at bats with three homers and eight runs. David Freese has homered twice against Vargas. Manny Machado, Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, and Chris Taylor are favorites as well.

HOUSTON, TX – AUGUST 31: Mike Trout #27 of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim hits a sacrifice fly to center field in the sixth inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park on August 31, 2018 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

I suppose you could go after Miles Mikolas, but you need to pay up to do it. Juan Soto and Bryce Harper are the two that have homered off of him.

Mike Trout is the only Angel to homer against Minor so far. I know all of you are as shocked by that as I am.

Starling Marte is very temping against a lefty, but I don’t know that I would go too crazy here due to the Pirates lack of success against Reed so far.

Joe Musgrove got waxed by the Reds earlier this year, and has allowed nine runs in his last two starts. Eugenio Suarez homered off of him earlier this year, so I definitely want some of that. Musgorve also didn’t retire Billy Hamilton. A Reds mini stack is looking pretty good right now.

If you go just off of past stats, the Brewers are worth stacking against Mike Montgomery. However, he has pitched well against them this year. Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, Keon Broxton, and Travis Shaw have all homered against Montgomery. I don’t mind taking a shot with one or two of them.

I like Dereck Rodriguez, but there is no way that I’m using him at Coors Field. CarGo, Charlie Blackmon, and David Dahl are my favorite targets here. I certainly can’t fault anyone that wants to use Arenado either.

I kinda want to use Kris Bryant and Javier Baez against Wade Miley here. He can’t pitch like this forever….

Arizona has hit Joey Lucchesi well, but he is pitching very well right now, and this Arizona offense is much worse at home. Paul Goldschmidt and Nick Ahmed have each homered twice off of Lucchesi. They are worth a look, but I wouldn’t go crazy here with the way Lucchesi is pitching.

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Middle Tier:

You can try to go after Jalen Beeks, but you could wind up being very disappointed. Lourdes Gurriel and Teoscar Hernandez are about the only guys I would really go after here.

The price on Trevor Richards is a little high for me since he doesn’t strike anyone out, but I’m not really looking to go after him either. Wilson Ramos is the only Phillie to homer off of him so far, so he is worht a look if you need a catcher. Rhys Hoskins and Odubel Herrera are worth a look as well.

Rick Porcello has not pitched well lately or against the Braves. Nick Markakis is 11-29(.379) with a homer and three RBI against Porcello. Freeman and Acuna are worth a look if you are paying up anyway just in case Porcello blows up again.

I suppose you could chase Giolito with Nick Castellanos since he has homered off of him twice, but those are his only two hits against Giolito in 15 tries. Mikie Mahtook is slightly safer, but I’m not crazy about any Tigers here.

Robbie Ray has been awful at home and even worse against the Padres this year. I wouldn’t even discourage a cheap stack here. Hunter Renfroe, Wil Myers, Franmil Reyes, and Luis Urias are all in play here. Renfroe has smacked three homers off of Ray in just 13 at bats. Hosmer and Wil Myers have homered off of him twice.

If I really considered the Yankees all that dangerous in this cavernous ballpark, I would consider a stack here. However, I think I only want to go after Liam Hendricks with a cheaper McCutchen and Greg Bird, if at all.

Alex Cobb got knocked around a bit by the Jays last week, ending his hot streak. As those of us that used him found out, Cobb doesn’t get enough strikeouts to bail us out if he gets tagged. Cobb has now given up four homers in his last two starts. I think I want to go after him a bit with Robinson Cano and Denard Span.

Bargain Shoppers:

For as much as Sam Gaviglio struggled against the Rays, only one hit a homer off of him. It was Jake Bauers. Joey Wendle is probably worth a look, but there is no reason to go too crazy here on a full slate.

This may be a time to go after cheap Marlins. Miguel Rojas is the one that has homered against Arrieta. JT Riddle is worth a look as well.

Someone finally got to J.A. Happ. It was bound to happen. I don’t think Oakland is going to pound him, but they have hit Happ plenty well enough for me not to use him. Marcus Semien and Mark Canha are my two targets here. Only Jed Lowrie is hitting him well enough to consider without a homer.

I don’t trust Wade LeBlanc with the onslaught of righties coming his way tonight. Trey Mancini, Jonathan Villar, and Chris Davis have all homered of of LeBlanc before if you want to chase that. Joey Rickard and Tim Beckham look good too.

Hunter Pence has both of the Giants’ homers against German Marquez. If you want a one off Giants play, this should be it. I still don’t like the odds of it though.

Next. MLB Game by Game breakdown August 31. dark

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