WNBA DFS Lineup Advice – 9/4/2018 (Fanduel and DraftKings)
By EJ Whelan
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of WNBA DFS Lineup Advice, a fantasy basketball column dedicated to finding you the best key players and value picks on today’s slate to build your lineups around.
I hope everyone enjoyed the long weekend and had a great Labor Day! It was nice to have a day off work and be able to dig into the numbers a little deeper before the games start today. And they should be some great games for WNBA fans, and hopefully, all the WNBA DFS players reading this article as well. Both series are tied at 2-2, giving us another two-game slate for tonight starting at 8 pm ET.
Luckily we avoided being reduced to single-game GPPs for the last two games of the series since nobody got swept. Now we have to make the most of it, and considering that first place will net you $10,000 dollars on both sites today I’m expecting the competition to be stiff. So let’s jump into the slate, find the best key players and value picks to build our lineups around, and go win some money!!!
For those of you stopping by for the first time, I would like to thank you for checking out WNBA DFS Lineup Advice here at FantasyCPR.com Here is a brief summary of what I cover in each article:
- Where to Play (Websites, contest rules, and prizes)
- Game Times, O/U, Spreads from Oddshark.com
- Key players from each game (Over 6K on Fanduel,10K on DraftKings)
- Value picks from each game (Under 4.5-K on Fanduel, 6k on DraftKings)
- Team stats from WNBA.com
- Player projections from LineStarApp.com
- Final Thoughts on the slate. (Stacks, fades, injuries, etc.)
It’s important to remember these articles are just a first look at the slate. For injury updates, starting lineups, spreadsheets, projections, pictures of my dog, and any other WNBA DFS news throughout the day – follow me on Twitter @whelan_ej
WNBA DFS – WHERE TO PLAY
Fanduel – $6 entry fee (150 max) 7,843 total entries 1st place prize – $10,000
DraftKings – $10 entry fee (141 max) 4,705 total entries 1st place prize – $10,000
Once upon a time (2013), Alex Bentley was a rookie playing for the Atlanta Dream. She spent a few seasons with Connecticut after that, before being traded back to Atlanta. She has been a solid contributor off the bench but hasn’t exactly been a dream come true for DFS owners. 6K on Fanduel is a little high for someone coming off the pine, despite her minutes per game. Combined with her lack of production in any other category besides scoring makes her an easy fade on tonight’s slate.
8 pm ET Washington Mystics #3 vs. Atlanta Dream #2 164.5 O/U ATL +1.5
Key Players:
Elena Delle Donne – EDD was able to tough it out on Sunday recording a double-double in 33 minutes of play. It was enough to get the Mystics a crucial win but didn’t do much for DFS players who rostered her, due to her high price tag. Shes under 8k on FD and may fit nicely into some lineups. On DK I would rather save a bill and play Stewart, especially for cash.
Kristi Toliver – Toliver finally got out of her shooting slump on Sunday, scoring over 22 points and going 4-9 from behind the arc. I still can’t see myself playing Toliver today with so many elite guards on the slate who have a cheaper price. She’s strictly a GPP play and a risky one at that.
Jessica Breland – Breland got into foul trouble early in Game 4 and only ended up seeing 25 minutes of court time. LineStar has her projected to score 33 points on Fanduel. She is blocking shots at a rate of 8.9% against Washington so far this series but she isn’t getting enough done on the other side of the ball to have much upside for tournaments.
Tiffany Hayes – Hayes is averaging 12.3 field goal attempts per game in the series and has a usage rate of 22.4%. She is another player who you only want to consider for GPP lineups. LineStar has her projected to score 29.83 points on DraftKings. I don’t mind her price tag on either site and will have some exposure to her in my lineups.
Value Picks: Tierra Ruffin-Pratt (FD & DK), Monique Billings (FD & DK)
The Mercury have battled back and tied the series after losing the first two games to the Storm. Taurasi has cooled off a bit, with a combined 24 points in those wins, while other players have stepped up for Phoenix. Seattle and Atlanta had the best home records this WNBA season, and have capitalized on that advantage in the playoffs, going undefeated on their home courts. That said, it’s gonna be hard to slow down the momentum that Pheonix has built with their last two wins, regardless of where the game is played.
10 pm ET Phoenix Mercury #5 vs. Seattle Storm #1 170 O/U SEA -3.5
Key Players:
Diana Taurasi – Taurasi is still a pretty penny on DraftKings despite a few lackluster performances. She’s under 8k on Fanduel but I’d still rather pay up a few hundred for Bonner. You could run them together but I don’t expect to see much production from the bench in either game, and you will be pressed to find some good punts to play with them if you still want to pick up a stud from the paint. LineStar has her projected to score 34.08 points on Fanduel.
Dewanna Bonner – Seattle hasn’t found an answer for Bonner in this series and she continues to put up big numbers. She’s had three 50+ fantasy point games against the Storm so far and is a no-brainer for tonight. LineStar has her projected to score 45.46 points on Fanduel. At 8k I will have plenty of exposure to her tonight.
Brittney Griner – Griner seems to have found her groove against the Storm double-doubling in the last games and scoring over 20 points in each contest. She’s the most expensive player on Fanduel today where LineStar has her projected to score 39.51 points. Talbot is set to miss this game, opening up some time on the court for players like Turner and Little. On Fanduel I don’t mind stacking Bonner with Little, or Griner with Turner, or even taking 3 or 4 players from Phoenix tonight and mixing up exposure to different combinations.
Breanna Stewart – Stewie is averaging 36.8 minutes a game against the Storm and taking 20 field goal attempts along with 5.5 three-point attempts a game in the series. She has a usage rate of 29.8% in the playoffs, the highest of any player still remaining in the postseason aside from Alex Bentley (30.2%). She’s under 12k on Draftkings where LineStar has her projected to score 40.33 points. I will have plenty of exposure to her today in both cash and GPP lineups.
Sue Bird – Bird broke her beak last game but will tough it out tonight and play with a mask for Game 5 according to Kevin Pelton at ESPN.COM. Playing with a broken nose isn’t new for Bird though, and this will be the fifth time this has happened to her, as reported by another ESPN writer Mechelle Voepel. I’m not counting Sue out tonight, but I won’t be rushing to stick her in my lineups either. Her price isn’t bad, and even with Talbot missing this game and opening up a little bit of value you will still have to find a few decent mid-tier options for your lineups. That said, Bird isn’t a bad choice for GPPs. Jewell Loyd could see an expanded role if the mask slows Bird down, but my exposure to her will be very limited if any at all.
Value Picks: Yvonne Turner (FD & DK), Camile Little (FD & DK), Jordin Canada (FD & DK)
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Final Thoughts
- I don’t have much interest for the punt plays from the paint on the Mystics today. I expect Delle Donne and Sanders to stay on the floor as long as possible, and the game to stay fairly close. If anyone from the bench sees the floor for a significant amount of time I think they will be from the backcourt.
- For cash games, I would limit my exposure to players from the bench on this slate. There are a few solid value picks today due to injury (Turner,Little). Stick to those and try to get as many starters in your lineup as possible.
- Top Mid-tier options to consider: SEA guards, Natasha Cloud, Brittany Sykes, Ariel Atkins, Elizabeth Williams.
- Risky plays and Fades: Taurasi (Risky), Breland (Fade), Howard (Risky), Toliver (Fade), Hayes (Risky)
- The over/under for the Pho vs. Sea game is 170 right now. It’s the last game of the series, I expect the energy and the score to be high tonight in Seattle and am putting my money on the over. I also like the chances of the first game going over too, and Washington to cover the spread.
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