DFS NFL Game by Game Breakdown, Week 1

We’re getting close to kicking off the DFS NFL season and the Game by Game Breakdown is back and ready to roll! We have a full 12 games so let’s go!!

I could not be more excited to get rolling with a Game by Game Breakdown for DFS NFL as I’ve missed doing the MLB one since I stopped last week and to the crossover readers, one last apology for needing to stop early but thank you for clicking on this one and joining me for NFL.

There’s going to be a lot of different stats in this one so if I mention something that you’re not sure of, please just ask and I’ll happily explain. At least to start the season off, we’re going to focus on the main slate. If you’re playing any of the mini slates, I’m happy to help on Twitter @bucn4life.  The defensive ranks that are under each team will switch after this week to reflect this year and are the average points given up to a certain position in 2017. Also, the lower the number, the easier the matchup for the offense. So the Bengals are 3rd in points surrendered to the running back, so it’s an easy matchup for the Colts. We’re also going to incorporate over/unders and point spreads to help us identify who we want. Let’s go to work on the first slate of the season!!

DFS NFL – Bengals at Colts – O/U 48.5, Colts -3

Bengals Defensive 2017 Ranks

QB – 20th, 15.6   RB – 3rd, 20.6   WR – 30th, 16.1  TE – 14th, 7.5 

The Colts finally welcome Andrew Luck back this week after he missed the entirety of the 2017 season. The Bengals were a little stingy last year against quarterbacks so it’s not the best matchup for him right off the bat. Still, this is Luck we’re talking about. He made it through the preseason without any further injury and he might have to throw quite a bit in this one. He’s full capable of torching any defense, especially when he’s at home. It’s a little hard to project this offense past receiver T.Y. Hilton in the first week. In 2016, he finished with over 1,400 yards and 91 receptions so he does feel fairly safe, even going against the corners for Cincinnati. Hilton finished 25th in air yards last season without Luck and should improve on that this season. In 2016, he was sixth. The running backs and complementary weapons are probably best for a wait and see approach. Rookie running back Jordan Wilkins is likely making his first start but we have no idea what the rotation looks like. Jack Doyle should finish second in targets behind Hilton but we can’t be 100 percent on that until we see this offense in real action.

Colts Players to Target 

Cash Options – None

GPP Options – Andrew Luck, T.Y Hilton, Jordan Wilkins, Jack Doyle

Colts Defensive 2017 Ranks 

QB – 7th, 17.8    RB – 5th, 20.1   WR – 7th, 20.7   TE – 8th, 8.4 

The Bengals are likely to be one of the most popular teams of Week 1. They finished in the bottom 10 against all four major positions and the Cincinnati offense should be able to take advantage of it. Quarterback Andy Dalton is 12th in salary on DraftKings and he’s still priced so low that it should be a value. If they can move the ball, running back Joe Mixon might have a field day as he garnered a 28 percent share of all red zone touches and 49 percent of the carries. Jeremy Hill is no longer with the team and he had a share of over 34 percent. Receiver A.J. Green had an aDOT of over 13 yards last season and it’s hard to find a corner that you really fear on the other side. Second Year receiver John Ross is going to be in a lot of GPP lineups after he ripped off a long touchdown in the preseason and the fast track in Indy won’t hurt him either. This seems like a spot for tight end Tyler Eifert to have about 30 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Bengals Players to Target 

Cash Options – Andy Dalton, A.J. Green, Joe Mixon

GPP Options – John Ross, Tyer Eifert

DFS NFL – Bills at Ravens – O/U 40.5, Ravens – 7

Bills Defensive Ranks 2017 

QB – 28th, 12.5    RB – 1st, 23.3   WR – 28th, 16.6   TE – 11th, 7.6 

From just about every aspect, I don’t know how you don’t love running back Alex Collins this week. Not only does he get a major workload but he should be on one of the more positive game scripts of the week. Baltimore’s defense should be able to feast on Bills quarterback Nathan Peterman, who has thrown an interception every 10 pass attempts in a very small sample size. The Ravens are the third biggest favorite on the slate, behind only the Saints and the Packers. The Bills did add Star Loutelelei do the defensive line but it’s a little hard to imagine him solving all the issues on the worst defense against running backs in football last year. Collins has a total of 29 opportunities in the red zone last year and should see at least a few today. The Baltimore passing game isn’t going to be something I want until we see how Michael Crabtree and John Brown mesh with quarterback Joe Flacco. If you play cash, it’s hard to find a better correlation between Collins and the Baltimore D/ST.

Ravens Players to Target 

Cash Options – Alex Collins, Baltimore D/ST

GPP Options – John Brown, Michael Crabtree

Ravens Defensive Ranks 2017 

QB – 31st, 10.3   RB – 11th, 19.5   WR – 31st, 15.9  TE – 12th, 7.5 

It’s not hard to see why the Ravens defense is going to be ultra chalk this week as they were a good defense against the quarterback last year. Baltimore will be without cornerback Jimmy Smith but the metrics with and without him aren’t that far different to make me worry. You can make the argument for receiver Kelvin Benjamin and running back LeSean McCoy just due to volume and the fact the Bills will likely have to play catchup but they’re far from my favorite plays. I don’t think we’re going to be spending a lot of time on Buffalo this year and that’s definitely the case this week.

Bills Players to Target 

Cash Options – None

GPP Options -LeSean McCoy, Kelvin Benjamin

DFS NFL – Buccaneers at Saints – O/U 49.5, Saints – 9.5

Buccaneers Defensive Ranks 2017 

QB – 13th, 16.8   RB – 9th, 19.7   WR – 2nd, 25.2   TE – 13th, 7.5

The Saints have the highest spread on the slate and that might be for a very good reason. Going into New Orleans isn’t easy on a good day, let alone when you’re down your starting cornerback. Jameis Winston is suspended so the means Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing and if you don’t want to use Baltimore’s defense in GPP’s, the Saints are an option. Fitzpatrick has appeared in 133 games and has thrown 136 interceptions. He’s also fumbled 68 times so the turnover opportunity is clearly there. The Saints finished third in the league with 20 interceptions last season.

On the offensive side of the ball, the Michael Thomas and Drew Brees stack is front and center. It’s not like Tampa shut down running backs last year so you could even run a three man of Alvin Kamara, Brees and Thomas. Per Warren Sharp on sharpfootballstats.com , New Orleans ranked first in the pass game with 59 and seventh in the run game with 44 explosive plays of 10+ yards rushing or 20+ yards passing. The Bucs defense gave up an explosive pass play 10 percent of the time and an explosive run play 11 percent, both among the highest rates in the league. Don’t forget about Ted Ginn Jr. here either. Rookie Tre’Quan Smith and Cameron Meredith have a lot of buzz but until we see their role, Ginn is the number two receiving option. It would likely be wise to warn you Mike Gillislee could be your worst enemy on Sunday. He’s liable to have eight carries for 10 yards and two touchdowns, making you tilt your face off.

Saints Players to Target 

Cash Options – Drew Brees, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara

Secondary Options – Ted Ginn, Tre’Quan Smith/Cameron Meredith

Saints Defensive Ranks 2017 

QB – 21st, 15.1   RB – 18th, 18.0   WR – 16th, 19.8   TE – 29th, 5.8 

The biggest question from this game is what to do with receiver Mike Evans. Since it’s a divisional opponent, we can look at last year’s track record a little bit here and Evans racked up 19 targets for six receptions and 68 yards. The first game was won by the Saints and that was the worst game with Evans only catching one target. Evans is going to see a lot of corner Marshon Lattimore, who was the seventh rated corner via Pro Football Focus last year. I might have been more willing to take this chance if Winston was still starting. Evans is the ninth most expensive receiver on the board and I think he’s just a GPP option. Even though I typically like passing games that might trail through a good portion of the game, I might make an exception for this one. Fitzpatrick could have a total meltdown in this spot. I want nothing to do with the running game with Peyton Barber and I’m not even sure which tight end of Cameron Brate or O.J. Howard I would try to chase.

Buccaneers Players to Target 

Cash Options – None

GPP Options – Mike Evans

DFS NFL – Texans at Patriots – O/U 51.0, Patriots -6.5

Texans Defensive Ranks 2017 

QB – 3rd, 19.0   RB – 22nd, 17.4   WR – 1st, 25.3   TE – 10th, 7.3 

This is the highest implied point total on the week and we should probably find some piece of the game to dig into. For the New England side, their pass catchers should be fairly concentrated this week. I’m not going to take the ranks for the Texans too seriously here given the injuries they suffered last year. Even still, Chris Hogan is the clear best wide receiver on the roster. He should see plenty of targets and I think Tom Brady to Hogan and tight end Rob Gronkowksi might be a top five stack this week. Yes, Houston was good against tight ends last year. That’s a cool story, but Gronk is Gronk. That matchup doesn’t scare me in the least. Rex Burkhead would seemingly be in line for a lot of red zone work after soaking up over 20 percent of the share last season in just 10 games. On a site like DraftKings that is full PPR, James White has to be one of the better cheap options. If this game does shoot out and the Patriots go pass heavy, White could easily see five receptions for around 45-50 yards.

Patriots Players to Consider 

Cash Options – Tom Brady, Chris Hogan, Rob Gronkowski

GPP Options – Rex Burkhead, James White

Patriots Defensive Ranks 2017 

QB – 6th, 18.0   RB – 16th, 18.6   WR – 4th, 23.7   TE – 25th, 6.1 

We get to see if Deshaun Watson is the real deal this year and by the numbers, he has a great chance to put up some numbers in this spot. He’s no stranger to walking into New England and playing well, having thrown for 301 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 41 yards last year in just his second start of his career. New England allowed 64 explosive passing plays last season and that would fit well with what Watson and his duo of DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. That was with corner Malcolm Butler and now he plays in Tennessee so New England is left with Stephon Gilmore and Eric Rowe. I think I might prefer to play Hopkins and Fuller than just choosing one but Hopkins falls behind some of the other top end receivers for me. The Pats finished 30th in football in passing yards against last year. Lamar Miller is always going to be viable but I never want to play him because I’m not convinced he has a ceiling.

Texans Players to Consider 

Cash Options – DeAndre Hopkins, Lamar Miller

GPP  Options – Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller

DFS NFL – 49ers at Vikings – O/U 46, Vikings -6

49ers Defensive Ranks 2017 

QB – 2nd, 19.2  RB – 7th, 20.0  WR – 11th, 21.6  TE – 17th, 7.2 

I’m wondering how popular it will be considering the options available this week but I wonder if the stack of Kirk Cousins and Stefon Diggs could go under-owned. A past his prime Richard Sherman might be the best player in the secondary and Diggs has gotten a lot of targets through the preseason. The potential for Diggs is off the charts in this matchup at home and on the turf. He saw eight targets from Cousins in the third preseason game and I don’t think that was on accident.  The 49ers didn’t play well against opposing passing games last year and we shouldn’t forget about how poor they were against the running backs. San Francisco got smoked by running back and finished in the bottom eight of points given up so there should be points to go around. My issue with playing Dalvin Cook is there has been too much noise with Latavius Murray splitting work with Cook. Minnesota has Super Bowl dreams and might treat Cook with kid gloves. There’s a lot of backs at very attractive prices this week.

Vikings Players to Consider 

Cash Options – Kirk Cousins, Stefon Diggs

GPP Options – Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota D/ST

Vikings Defensive Ranks 2017

QB – 30th, 12.0   RB – 32nd, 13.4  WR – 25th, 17.6   TE – 32nd, 5.1 

I really like the 49er offense in the general sense this year and think Jimmy Garoppolo could lead the league in passing yards. However, this is a terrible spot for him and I won’t have any 49ers this upcoming week. You see these ranks and then realize that the Vikings added defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson, safety George Iloka and drafted corner Mike Hughes in the first round and oh by the way, Xavier Rhodes and Harrison Smith still patrol that secondary. The only play you could maybe twist my arm into a little bit might be Matt Breida. This doesn’t shape up to be a solid game for Alfred Morris and Breida might see a lot of dump off passes. The only reason I’m hesitating with the Vikings defense is Jimmy G did play well against the vaunted Jacksonville defense late last year with worse talent around him. San Francisco did score 44 points that day and Garoppolo passed for 242 yards and two touchdowns.

Vikings Players to Target 

Cash Options – None

GPP Options – Matt Breida, Marquise Goodwin

NASHVILLE, TN – NOVEMBER 12: Tight End Delanie Walker #82 of the Tennessee Titans carries the ball against the Cincinnati Bengals at Nissan Stadium on November 12, 2017 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

DFS NFL – Titans at Dolphins – O/U 45, Titans -1

Titans Defensive Ranks 2017 

QB – 12th, 16.9  RB – 24th, 17.0  WR – 10th,  22.0   TE – 13th, 7.5 

This game isn’t super attractive on paper but these are the type of games that you can potentially pull a low owned player that makes a big difference in the lineup. The Dolphins are a bit of an enigma at this juncture. They welcome back Ryan Tannehill into the fold but they are without Jarvis Landry for the first time since he was drafted. What that does open up is my man Kenny Stills, who should see a significant chunk of the 161 targets(26.7 percent) that Landry leaves behind. Stills was actually 12th in the NFL in air yards last year and this could be the season that he truly breaks out.

There is a fair concern about how much Tannehill will throw downfield with a career 7.0 yards per attempt. Having short area targets like Danny Amendola and Albert Wilson makes it interesting as well. I want to love Kenyan Drake but don’t trust coach Adam Gase at this point to give the ball to his best back. Yes, it’s not even close as to who the best back is.

The one very sneaky play I like in GPP is Mike Gesicki. He was deployed everywhere in the preseason which speaks to him having a chance at a very big role, even though his targets weren’t high. He’s an athletic freak that could come down with a touchdown or two this week against the Titans.

Dolphins Players to Consider 

Cash Options – Danny Amendola on PPR sites

GPP Options – Kenyan Drake, Kenny Stills, Mike Gesicki

Dolphins Defensive Ranks 2017 

QB – 14th,16.8  RB – 6th, 20.1   WR – 24th ,17.8   TE – 3rd, 9.9

I’ve really wanted to love this Titans offense now that the exotic smash mouth offense has been scrapped but they haven’t exactly shown a lot in the preseason. I don’t think the Dolphins defense is anything special, although they do have a nice pass rush duo of Cameron Wake and Robert Quinn. Corey Davis didn’t look like anything special yet again and he could see plenty of Xavien Howard. What is interesting is the running back duo of Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis. It’s a little difficult to decipher exactly how things will go as far as the split workload but there’s no doubt Lewis has the higher upside from a reception standpoint. On the other hand, Henry had 28 percent of the red zone opportunities last year with DeMarco Murray on the roster. He also had 43.5 percent of the red zone rushes so the touchdown equity is high. It looks like Delanie Walker should suit up this week and that would be the spot to attack Miami. He led the Titans in targets last year with 111 and that was good for 22.9 percent of the team’s pass attempts.

Titans Players to Target 

Cash Options – Delanie Walker

GPP Options – Marcus Mariota, Corey Davis, Derrick Henry/Dion Lewis

DFS NFL – Jaguars at Giants – O/U 43.5, Jaguars – 3

Jaguars Defensive Ranks 2017 

QB – 32nd, 10.2   RB – 20th, 17.5  WR – 32nd, 15.1   TE – 23rd, 6.4  

There’s nothing to pick on against this Jaguar defense and while defensive performances can really ride the roller coaster from year to year, they sure look like they’re in prime position to repeat the dominance they showed last year. Even with Dante Fowler suspended for a game, they still boast Calais Campbell, Yannick Ngakoue, Telvin Smith, A.J. Bouye and of course Jalen Ramsey. The brash corner will have his hands full with Odell Beckham for some portion of this game and I don’t mind OBJ as a tournament option. Even the best corners can get burned on one play. It’s not often that Beckham is going to be the sixth most expensive receiver and the ownership is going to be low. I likely won’t play the Jags D/ST just because there’s enough potential from Beckham and rookie Saquon Barkley to put a few points on the board. One of my favorite sneaky plays could be Evan Engram. The Jaguars struggled a little bit towards the end of the season against tight ends and we saw in the playoffs Pittsburgh tight end Vance McDonald caught 10 passes.

Giants Players to Consider 

Cash Options – None

GPP Options – Odell Beckham, Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram

Giants Defensive Ranks 2017 

QB – 1st, 19.4    RB – 10th, 19.7    WR – 8th, 22.6    TE – 1st, 11.3 

The Jaguars are likely to be very popular this week, including Keelan Cole and Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Both these players are dirt cheap and the Giants were the worst team in football against tight ends last year. ASJ is going to be a cash game staple but I think there’s a strong case to fade him in tournaments. There’s so many tight ends that you can go to in that range and Seferian-Jenkins might carry the highest ownership. Cole led the Jags last year in receiving and averaged 17.8 yards per catch so he brings serious upside. If you think Cole is going to be too chalky, play Dede Westbrook. He’s been playing in the slot a good bit this offseason and that could help him be a little more consistent. I’m almost always going to play an Ezekiel Elliot or Melvin Gordon over Leonard Fournette but he’s not a bad play. Even Blake Bortles could be sneaky this week with potential rushing upside and a solid matchup overall. The Giants defense could see some improvement this year but it’s hard not to attack them.

Jaguars Players to Consider 

Cash Options – Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Keelan Cole

GPP Options – Dede Westbrook, Blake Bortles, Leonard Fournette

DFS NFL – Steelers at Browns – O/U 45.5, Steelers -4

Steelers Defensive Ranks 2017 

QB – 27th, 13.7   RB – 15th, 18.8    WR – 21st, 18.2    TE – 30th, 6.3 

There are some folks who I’ve seen talking about the Steelers defense and it might make sense if you just look at the final ranks. That’s where things can be a little misleading because the Steelers defense got smoked after Ryan Shazier suffered his injury. I’m shoring out the game that they faced T.J. Yates at quarterback because it’s T.J. Yates. In those other four games, the Steelers defense gave up an average of 360.5 passing yards, 102 rushing yards and 33.5 points. Bringing in Jon Bostic at linebacker and Morgan Burnett at safety aren’t going to solve all of that and I love the Cleveland offense this week. Carlos Hyde might be sneaky with his form from the preseason(6.35 YPC) and the passing game has to be attractive as well. Jarvis Landry should catch at least eight passes from Tyrod Taylor and is a great cash play. Josh Gordon is a total wildcard this week, since we don’t know his playing time. Pittsburgh looked great against tight ends last year but I want some shares of David Njoku this week. None of the linebackers or secondary can match up with him physically and he was running with the first team offense well over 75 percent in the preseason.

Browns Players to Consider 

Cash Options – Jarvis Landry, Tyrod Taylor, David Njoku

GPP Options – Josh Gordon, Carlos Hyde/Duke Johnson

Browns Defensive Ranks 2017 

QB – 4th, 18.8    RB – 19th, 17.9    WR – 20th, 18.8    TE – 4th, 9.8

If Le’Veon Bell doesn’t report to the team, James Conner will be the highest owned player on the slate since he’s priced as a backup. Even if Bell plays, I’m not touching him this week since he’s had zero reps and is not in football shape. Yes, there’s a big difference between being in beastly shape like Bell is an football shape. We all saw it last year when he had 13 touches for 47 yards. You get that production for Lev Bell prices and you can just pack it in for Week 1. People will gripe about Ben Roethlisberger and his home/road splits but they were a lot better last year. He had a higher yards per attempt on the road and he only threw for four fewer touchdowns. There is a split but it’s not egregious. He and Antonio Brown(who I would legitimately play in almost every single matchup)are my main players but if Bell doesn’t show up, I feel even better about JuJu Smith-Schuster. I wish Vance McDonald was healthy to take advantage of the Browns not being able to guard tight ends but that’s a risky business this week.

Steelers Players to Consider 

Cash Options – Antonio Brown, James Conner(if no Bell)

GPP Options – JuJu Smith-Schuster, Ben Roethlisberger

DFS NFL – Chiefs at Chargers – O/U 48, Chargers -3

Chiefs Defensive Ranks 2017 

QB – 9th, 17.2    RB – 13th, 19.1    WR – 3rd, 24.4     TE – 21st, 6.5 

The player that I pretty much have locked into every single lineup this week is Keenan Allen because the Chiefs couldn’t stop wide receivers last year with corner Marcus Peters. Not only did he get traded, safety Eric Berry is questionable and might not play. Allen might legitimately score at least 30 points this week. He and Philip Rivers seem like they might be the safest stack on the board. When Allen caught fire at the end of last year, he was on a 384 point pace in PPR. You’re always going to feel pretty safe with Melvin Gordon as one of your running backs because he brings the safety of 80+ targets for the season. If I’m playing a secondary receiver, I’m siding with Tyrell Williams while some other folks chase Mike Williams and freshly signed Antonio Gate.s Tyrell has been there and can stretch the field, even though there is a chance there aren’t any corners that we need to fear in this spot. The Chargers offense are one of the ones on this slate I feel comfortable saying they should score 25+ points.

Chargers Players to Consider 

Cash Options – Keenan Allen, Philip Rivers, Melvin Gordon

GPP Options – Tyrell Williams, Mike Williams/Antonio Gates, Austin Ekeler

Chargers Defensive Ranks

QB – 29th, ,12.4    RB – 13th, 19.1    WR – 27th, 17.4     TE – 28th, 5.9

I like Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs offense a good deal this year but I’m not really too excited to tangle with the Chargers defense at home. Casey Heyward is one of the best corners in football, they got lucky to have defensive back Derwin James fall to them in the draft and then the boast the pass rushing combo of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. Mahomes might be able to torch the Chargers for a deep Tyreek Hill touchdown but he’s also got a pretty high chance at multiple turnovers here. Between the rush and the secondary, this is a difficult spot. Kareem Hunt and Travis Kelce are fine plays, this just isn’t a great first game of the year for the Chiefs offense as a whole. I’m a Sammy Watkins guy but the preseason couldn’t;t have gone much worse for him. Last year, the Chargers racked up 27 total turnovers and sacked the quarterback 43 times and finished in the top six in both categories.

Chiefs Players to Consider 

Cash Options – None

GPP Options – Patrick Mahomes, Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce

DFS NFL – Cowboys at Panthers – O/U 42.5, Panthers -3.0

Cowboys Defensive Ranks 2017

QB – 11th, 17.1    RB – 25th, 17.0    WR – 9th, 22.4    TE – 16th, 7.3

After seeing Christian McCaffrey suck up touches like there was no tomorrow in games that didn’t;t matter, you have to expect that’s the plan here for the Panthers. Even if you’re not crazy about the matchup against the Cowboys while they have Sean Lee, it’s very difficult to pass on the value McCaffrey and potentially 25 touches brings. I also think Devin Funchess might be sneaky, since he was told to go away once Greg Olson was hurt. After Olsen came back, he basically doubled the target share between him and Funchess. It’s important to note that Funchess was banged up in those few games and has a touchdown about every 6.5 receptions in his career. Panther receivers become even more attractive if Dallas safety Xavier Woods gets ruled out. The upside is definitely there but I think I’ll be finding another route in cash games. Since we don’t know what the market shares will shake out to be, I think you play a lot of CMC and you can go with Cam Newton as well. I just find myself looking at a lot of other QB’s at this point.

Panthers Players to Consider 

Cash Options – Christian McCaffrey, Cam Newton

GPP Options – Devin Funchess, Greg Olsen

Panthers Defensive Ranks 2017 

QB – 22nd, 15.1     RB – 30th, 15.6     WR – 5th, 23.3     TE – 22nd, 6.5 

I will be the first to admit that I’ve not played Dak Prescott too often over these past couple years and the awesome Scott Barrett points out that may have been a mistake.

To say that’s impressive would be underselling it. If you don’t believe in Tyrod Taylor, Prescott is a very solid pivot option. I might want to play him on his own but if you desperately want to play a receiver, I’m heading Michael Gallup. He ran almost exclusively with the first team for a lot of the preseason so I think Dallas has plans for him by default. Matchups are basically irrelevant to me when weighing them against Zeke. He’s viable every single week but I do feel like there’s other backs to spend up on this week, especially at the high end. I don’t think many players flock to Dallas here so there is low ownership opportunity.

Cowboys Players to Consider 

Cash Options – Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliot

GPP Options – Michael Gallup

DFS NFL – Redskins at Cardinals – O/U 44.0, No line yet

Redskins Defensive Rankings 2017 

QB – 17th, 15.7     RB – 8th, 20.0     WR – 22nd, 18.0    TE – 5th, 9.3 

The Arizona offense is generally going to be fairly easy to figure out – you play David Johnson no matter what and the draws a good matchup against Washington, who struggled to contain the running backs last year at 20 points per year. Larry Fitzgerald is a great cash play, especially at home where he has significant splits. The past two seasons have seen Fitzgerald play much better ash home with about 200 more yards, 15-18 more receptions and last year he only scored one touchdown on the road compared to one at home. The last player is Ricky Seals-Jones and it’s not hard to see why in this tweet from Graham Barfield –

The offense is going to be concentrated through these two and maybe Seals-Jones, who could have some major sleeper appeal at snap percentages that high. This is another game that lacks sizzle but also leaves you with some really solid options.

Cardinals Players to Consider 

Cash Options – David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald

GPP Options – Sam Bradford, Ricky Seals – Jones

Cardinals Defensive Ranks 2017 

QB – 15th, 16.5    RB – 29th, 15.7     WR – 15th, 19.9    TE – 19th, 6.8 

This side is one of the most mediocre on the slate because there is not a good direction to go. We need to see how the offense functions now that Alex Smith has taken the place of Kirk Cousins and they’re starting on the road while trying to run the offense. Jordan Reed is supposed to play but I’m not sure I want to use him with a bunch of cheaper options this week. I think the running backs are totally out because we’re not 100 percent sure how the work will split up. Jamison Crowder is appealing from the PPR standpoint but that might be it here. We need to see this offense action for real before we know where to go. I wouldn’t play the Arizona D/ST because Alex Smith just doesn’t turn the ball almost ever.

Redskins Players to Consider 

Cash Options – None

GPP Options – Jamison Crowder, Jordan Reed

DFS NFL – Seahawks at Broncos – O/U 43.0, Broncos – 3

Seahawks Defensive Ranks 2017 

QB – 25th, 13.4    RB – 23rd, 17.3      WR – 13th, 20.9     TE – 31st, 5.7 

In years past, I would walk right on by the Broncos but it’s a new season and it’s a new Seattle defense. The Legion of Boom is no more as Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas aren’t playing in this game for one reason or another. Linebacker K.J Wright is expected to miss and the defensive line looks a little suspect, at best. Case Keenum might be the cheapest quarterback that you feel pretty comfortable with and I love him throwing to Emmanuel Sanders out of the slot this week. Sanders is a safe pivot from a Jarvis Landry with a similar profile. I’d side with him over Demaryius Thomas until we see how Keenum fits in. Royce Freeman is right on the border of cash games for me. I’m starting him in seasonal but it is likely smarter to reserve him for GPP this week. Again, we want to see how the offense functions.

Broncos Players to Consider 

Cash Options – Emmanuel Sanders, Case Keenum

GPP Options – Demaryius Thomas, Royce Freeman/Devontae Booker

Broncos Defensive Ranks 2017 

QB – 19th, 15.6      RB – 28th, 15.8     WR – 29th, 16.5     TE – 2nd, 9.9 

I’ve outlined my concerns about offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer in previous articles so I won’t bore you again. Suffice to say, his track record is atrocious for fantasy production. The only two players I’m thinking about is Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin. The issue becomes Baldwin might see a lot of Chris Harris. Last year, Baldwin ran about 73 percent of his routes from the slot and Harris was there over 60 percent of the time. That’s going to be a tough assignment for both players and I think I’m totally off Seattle this week. I’ve fallen into the camp that the Seahawks might only win 4-5 games this year and I’m not testing that theory in Denver Week 1.

Seahawks Players to Consider 

Cash Options – None

GPP Options – Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin

DFS NFL – Sample DraftKings Lineup

QB – Philip Rivers 

RB – Alex Collins

RB – Rex Burkhead

WR – Keenan Allen

WR – Michael Thomas 

WR – Stefon Diggs 

TE – Mike Gesicki

Flex – Jarvis Landry

D/ST – Baltimore Ravens 

The Core – Keenan Allen, Alex Collins, Rex Burkhead, Michael Thomas is close but no Le’Veon Bell changes the slate

This isn’t exactly the safest case lineup, even though the receivers do scream safety from a reception standpoint. The good thing is there are so many options this week, you can easily swap Diggs for Emmanuel Sanders, Gesicki for Seferian-Jenkins and then Landry for Christian McCaffrey. This particular lineup gets the Rivers/Allen combo that I love so much but it wouldn’t be hard for me to pivot on quarterback.

My biggest fear with this lineup is not having enough of the cheap running backs but that is off-set a bit by the reception floor that all four receivers carry. I think even Diggs has a safe floor at home against what could be a very dicey 49ers secondary. Gesicki isn’t cash safe by any stretch but if he gets a touchdown, I would be looking solid for cash. I know we were all pumped when DraftKings opened so early, but there are so many value plays it’s going to be tough to decide this week.