NFL DFS DraftKings Week 1 Lineup Advice
By Ben McDaniel
We finally made it! No more preseason NFL DFS lineups featuring guys like Cardale Jones and Jake Kumerow! It’s time for the real deal! The purpose of this article is to equip you with information that will help you formulate your NFL DFS lineups for Sunday. I share some of my favorite plays, along with some thoughts concerning a few other popular players as well. Be sure to follow me on Twitter @BenMcD_Sports as I’ll be sharing updates to my top plays as more information is released closer to kickoff! Thanks for reading, NFL DFS DraftKings Week 1 Lineup Advice!
NFL DFS DraftKings: Quarterbacks
Tom Brady HOU @ NE $7,200 (NFL DFS DraftKings Salary)
In week 3 of last season when the Patriots and Texans squared off, Brady managed to complete 25 for 35 attempts while passing for 378 yards and 5 touchdowns. Granted, the Houston defense should be quite a bit better this year. The Texans will have a fearsome pass rush with Clowney and a healthy J.J. Watt, and an improved secondary with former Cardinals safety, Tyrann Mathieu in the fold. Regardless, Brady is as reliable as they come, and he’ll most likely put up solid numbers this week. No one knows what to make of the Patriots running game, and most reports seem to indicate that New England is going to take a pass heavy approach in this one. There’s a reason he’s the most expensive NFL DFS quarterback almost every week. Start Brady for NFL DFS with confidence.
Drew Brees TB @ NO $6,800
Question: What do you get when you combine a defense that allowed the most passing yards in the NFL, while also generating the least amount of sacks in the entire league? Answer: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs have a few rookies they expect to make an impact in their secondary this season, but do you trust them on the road against Brees in their first career game? I didn’t think so. You couldn’t ask for a better matchup for one of the league’s best quarterbacks and I expect Brees to put up solid numbers in what should be an offensive explosion. He’s one of my favorite NFL DFS QB options.
DeShaun Watson HOU @ NE $6,700
I expect Watson to be one of the most popular plays at the quarterback position in week 1. Although the Patriots were able to pick him off twice last year, Watson offset that by throwing for 301 yards and 2 touchdowns. What helps give Watson such enormous upside is that he is able to take off and run with the best of them. In the 7 games he appeared in last season, he averaged 5.5 points per game just from his rushing totals. Deploying Watson is a great way to gain exposure to what should be one of the highest scoring games of the week.
Kirk Cousins SF @ MIN $6,500
In 2017, Cousins finished as the #6 Quarterback in fantasy points in an offense that featured Josh Doctson, Ryan Grant, and Jamison Crowder as the top wideouts. How excited do you think Cousins gets everytime he looks across the huddle and sees Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen? Last season, the San Francisco defense allowed the 11th most passing yards and the 9th most passing touchdowns in the entire NFL. Although the 49ers added Richard Sherman to their secondary in the offseason, he’s 30 years old and coming back from a torn achilles. I like the matchup for Cousins this week. I also won’t be surprised if San Francisco’s offense struggles to move the ball against one of the league’s best defenses, which means Cousins could often find himself starting drives with great field position. At this price point, Cousins seems to be a safe option, while also possessing immense upside.
Russell Wilson SEA @ DEN $6,200
I understand that opening up your season in Denver isn’t exactly ideal. Still, doesn’t $6,200 seem awful cheap for the quarterback who led the league in fantasy points last season? Only once all of last season was Wilson’s salary this low, and he managed to score 24.8 fantasy points in that matchup at Jacksonville. I’m not saying Wilson is a safe play, and definitely wouldn’t recommend him for cash games. The offensive line still has issues, outside of Doug Baldwin there aren’t any proven weapons, and the Broncos do boast one of the league’s best defenses. However, this is your chance to play the Seattle QB at what will probably be his lowest price all season. Wilson always carries a considerable amount of upside due to his excellent rushing ability, and if he’s forced to use his legs more than usual on Sunday, he could be on the best values of the NFL DFS main slate.
Andy Dalton CIN @ IND $5,800
I expect NFL DFS players to be all over Dalton this week in both cash and GPP contests. The Bengals offense had to have spent all offseason licking their chops thinking about this week 1 matchup. If the Colts announced the decision that they were planning to sign and start the preseason Indiana All-State High School football players, it might actually be an upgrade to their defense. With Luck back under center and playing at home, there’s also a greater chance this game turns into a shootout. At this price, it’s hard not to see him returning value. Just know that if you want to differentiate your lineup, playing Dalton won’t be the way to do it.
Case Keenum SEA @ DEN $5,100
Weeks ago, when DraftKings first released the week 1 salaries, Keenum immediately caught my eye. Denver’s new signal caller is the 5th cheapest QB on the entire slate. A matchup with Seattle doesn’t scare me like it would have in years past. This Seahawks defense reminds me of Saturday Night Live. Both have lost the majority of their talent, and the replacements just aren’t as good. Also, I just saw the report that Earl Thomas isn’t expected to show up until he gets paid or traded. I will be absolutely stunned if Keenum doesn’t return value at this price point.
Nathan Peterman BUF @ BAL $4,200
You want to be super ultra mega contrarian? Here’s your chance. You have an opportunity to be one of only two people in the entire country who will be using Peterman in NFL DFS this week. (The other being his own mom.) All joking aside, with all the hate surrounding the Bills offense, the Ravens DST ownership is going to be through the roof in week 1. Am I the only one who wants to fade the Ravens DST and roll out a Peterman-Benjamin/Clay stack in a NFL DFS GPP?
NFL DFS DraftKings: Running Backs
David Johnson WAS @ ARI $8,800
If you want to pay up at running back in week 1, your two options are essentially Johnson or Alvin Kamara. With DraftKings rewarding 1 point per reception, both guys have the receiving chops to rack up a ton of points in a hurry. Each player also has a similar matchup in week 1. Last season, both of their opponents’ defense (WAS & TB) actually tied for allowing the fourth most DraftKings points to the running back position (27 ppg). However, if I have to choose between the two, I’m rolling with Johnson this week. The Cardinals running back has proven to possess the ability to be a workhorse, while Kamara never logged more than 12 carries in a game last season. Could his touches increase? Sure, especially with Mark Ingram suspended. But Kamara lacks the size of a typical every down back, and until we see him carry the load on the field, I prefer the proven commodity in David Johnson.
Leonard Fournette JAX @ NYG $7,100
As long as he stays healthy, Fournette is my pick to lead the NFL in carries this year. What makes Fournette one of the safest plays in NFL DFS, is that with the Jaguars fielding a ferocious defense, they are almost guaranteed to never get blown out of a game, meaning they should never have to abandon the run. What gives Fournette an even higher ceiling, is that in the preseason, Jacksonville began to show more of a willingness to target their stud running back in the passing game. If Fournette receives 20+ carries and hauls in even 3-4 passes, he’s going to be a good play against an improved, but still average at best New York Giants defense.
Kareem Hunt KC @ LAC $6,900
You know who Kareem Hunt had his two high scoring games against last season? The Los Angeles Chargers. In week 3 he managed 28.3 points and in week 15 he exploded for 42.6 points. I expect Kansas City to lean heavy on their stud running back to relieve some pressure from Patrick Mahomes, who will be making his second career start. There’s also this recent quote by Andy Reid from ESPN.com that has me excited for the matchup:
"“The fact you can take a big guy like that and that he can be a power and finesse runner and at the same time be a pass receiver is a real plus. That’s one spot we’ve probably got to do a better job increasing his role this year in the pass game, giving him a little bit more even than what he had last year. That’s just kind of the natural progression from first year to second year there.”"
The Chiefs offense projects to be explosive, although I do have my concerns that they’ll take a slight step back from where they were last year. No matter the case, Hunt is going to be the focal point of their offense, and should be safe enough for NFL DFS cash games with enough upside for GPP contests.
Christian McCaffrey DAL @ CAR $6,400
Perhaps no player did more during the preseason to boost their week 1 ownership percentage than Christian McCaffrey. The Panthers didn’t show any signs of using a committee, which bodes well for McCaffery’s volume in 2018. Carolina will be lining up against the Dallas Cowboys in week 1, who last season, allowed the 5th most receptions by running backs. McCaffrey makes his money catching passes out of the backfield, and is a safe bet to see an increase in carries. Fantasy football is all about opportunity and talent. McCaffery has plenty of both in week 1.
Alex Collins BUF @ BAL $5,600
Is there a soul alive who expects this to be a competitive game? My only concern with Collins is that the Ravens backfield is slightly crowded, with Javorius Allen and Kenneth Dixon also expected to be involved. Still, I expect Baltimore to lead this game wire to wire, which means Collins has a chance to exceed 20 carries. The Ravens defense seems like a lock to record at least a few takeaways, which would most likely mean frequently giving Flacco, Collins, and the rest of the offense a short field to work with. If I had to guess one running back to have a multi-touchdown game in week 1, it might be Collins.
Lamar Miller HOU @ NE $5,200
In all honesty, I don’t think Lamar Miller is a particularly good NFL running back. If Miller has a great week, he’ll do it despite an below average Texans offensive line. So why am I considering playing him in week 1? There are zero guys expected to challenge him for carries. Another encouraging sign, is that in 2017, his two most productive games running the ball came with DeShaun Watson under center. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has the over/under on this game at 51, which is the highest of the Sunday slate. Those points have to come from somewhere. Lamar Miller at this price is worth a roll of the dice.
Peyton Barber TB @ NO $4,100
Here’s an example of DraftKings getting a price wrong. Back when they set the salaries for week 1, it looked like Ronald Jones ($4,900) would be the guy in Tampa you’d want to start. After recording 22 yards on 28 carries this preseason, clearly, Jones is not ready for the NFL. Charles Sims was also expected to be heavily involved in the passing game, but was recently released by the team. This is Barber’s backfield in week 1. There is a risk of this game turning into a blowout, but even then, Barber is a capable receiver out of the backfield. At this price, Barber will return nearly 3x value if he can just muster 80 total yards with 4 catches sprinkled in there. If he manages to get into the end zone, he’ll blow his value out of the water. Other running backs at this value to consider are Carlos Hyde ($4,500), James Conner ($4,500), Royce Freeman ($4,500), and Chris Carson ($4,500).
NFL DFS DraftKings: Wide Receivers
Antonio Brown PIT @ CLE $8,600
Honestly, not much needs to be said here. Antonio Brown is a target monster and has the highest weekly upside of any wide receiver in the league. However, IF I was desperate for a reason to fade him at his price, I might point to his home/road splits from last season. In 2017 he averaged 119.1 yards per game at home while “only” averaging 99.9 yards per game on the road. He also scored 6 of his 9 touchdowns at home in Pittsburgh. Still, you have to be squinting pretty hard to find a reason not to feel good about his chances in week 1. He’s about as consistent as they come.
Michael Thomas TB @ NO $7,800
I love Drew Brees to have a big game on Sunday, so it stands to reason that I love his #1 wideout. Michael Thomas was an absolute stud last season, hauling in 104 catches, 1,245 yards, and 5 touchdowns. In three career games against Tampa Bay, Thomas has averaged almost 7 catches and 86 yards. The fact that Thomas has failed to score a touchdown against his division rival just means that he is due for one. The Saints leaned heavy on the run last year, but with Ingram suspended for four games, I expect to see a little more of the strong Saints passing attack we’ve seen in years past.
A.J. Green CIN @ IND $7,300
To see my thoughts concerning the Colts defense, refer back to the section on Andy Dalton. There is no one in the entire state of Indianapolis that can stick with Green, and he is primed for a big game. For some reason, I just can’t get all that excited for this matchup though. The Bengals offense has come up short of high expectations and burned me so many times in the the past, it’s hard for me to trust them. Still, fade at your own risk.
Larry Fitzgerald WAS @ ARI $6,600
If you are of the opinion that David Johnson‘s presence will hinder Fitzgerald’s ability to continue to produce big numbers, consider that in 2016, while Johnson was busy leading the NFL in scrimmage yards, Fitzgerald still produced 107 catches for 1,023 and 6 touchdowns. The Cardinals have brought in Sam Bradford, who has proven to be one of the most accurate passers in the NFL. Fitzgerald, whose late career switch to the slot position led to his resurgence, will quickly be the safety net for Bradford who will have to get the ball out quick due to questionable pass protection. Also working in Fitzgerald’s favor, is that Washington shipped out slot cornerback Kendall Fuller in a trade for Alex Smith and failed to replace him with a better option. It’s been three years since Fitzgerald had a reception go for longer than 44 yards, so his path to an enormous amount of points has to come through a ton of catches and touchdowns. He should continue to be heavily targeted though, and is a safe cash game play. Upside is also there if he’s able to get in into the end zone.
Stefon Diggs SF @ MIN $6,300
I have no issue if you’d rather start Adam Thielen. I also have no issue if you want to use both wideouts in a stack with Kirk Cousins. Personally, if I have to choose one, I’m going with Diggs just because of the price difference. The Vikings have an excellent matchup with a 49ers defense that really struggled to stop the pass last year, and both Diggs and Thielen will get their fair share of targets in what should be a high scoring affair, at least on Minnesota’s end. I will add, while I don’t expect Richard Sherman to ever return to being the shutdown corner he used to be, he will be spending the majority of his time on Diggs, which could open up more looks for Thielen in this one.
Chris Hogan HOU @ NE $6,000
Brady and Hogan showed a strong connection last season before the Patriots wide receiver suffered a shoulder injury that forced him to miss time. If Brady has a big game, it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which Hogan doesn’t produce. In last year’s shootout with Houston, Hogan had a big game with 4 catches, 68 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Brady’s willingness to look his way when in the red-zone is what makes him such an appealing option. However, it’s doubtful that Hogan will return value unless he finds the end zone at least once. I like him. I don’t love him. I’ll probably only be using him in a lineup if I’m stacking him with Brady.
Emmanuel Sanders SEA @ DEN $5,000
Remember all the way back to last year when Adam Thielen was in the middle of a breakout season? Case Keenum‘s propensity to heavily target his slot receiver helped facilitate that breakout. Guess which Denver wideout is set to spend the majority of his time in the slot this year? Handy Manny Sanders! Once my article concerning the top stacks is released, you can bet you’ll be reading about my love for the Keenum/Sanders connection in week 1. Sanders is one of my favorite plays of the week.
Jamison Crowder WAS @ ARI $5,000
If you read many of my other articles, you’ll know that I have Jamison Crowder as one of my top candidates to break out this season. Much like Bradford and Fitzgerald in this same game, Alex Smith should be looking Crowder’s way early and often as the Redskins receiver runs high percentage routes out of the slot position. Consider these stats, found on ESPN.com:
"“In the past five years, Smith owns a combined 102.8 quarterback rating when targeting slot receivers. That’s third best in the NFL over that time for quarterbacks who have made at least 30 starts, trailing only Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson. Smith owns the ninth-most completions to slot receivers in that period.”"
I wouldn’t expect Crowder to post the type of stats that blow your socks off, but if you’re looking for a safe option who will consistently produce between 10-15 points every week with the potential for more when he finds the end zone, Crowder is your guy.
Keelan Cole JAX @ NYG $3,800
With Marqise Lee suffering a season ending injury, somebody has to step up for the Jaguars passing game. The consensus opinion seems to be that Keelan Cole will fill the gap left by Lee’s injury. There is at least some precedent for Cole performing like a WR1. Last year in weeks 13-16, Cole produced 19 catches for 442 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Giants pass defense was a nightmare last year, and I won’t believe they’re any better until they prove it on the field. This seems like purely a punt play though, as no one is really sure which guy between Cole, Dede Westbrook, and Donte Moncrief will end up leading the Jaguars in receiving. Then again, with a $3,800 salary that was set before Lee went down with an injury, it wouldn’t take much for Cole or any of those other guys to be a great value play.
Phillip Dorsett HOU @ NE $3,700
Is Dorsett any good at football? To this point of his career, all signs point to no. But Dorsett presents the rare opportunity to roster one of Tom Brady‘s starting wideouts for less than $4,000. As I stated in the section about Lamar Miller, the New England/Houston game has the highest implied total of any game on the slate, and those points have to come from somewhere. If you really want to roll the dice, Cordarrelle Patterson ($3,500) could also be a great value at such a low salary.
NFL DFS DraftKings: Tight Ends
Rob Gronkowski HOU @ NE $6,900
Much like Antonio Brown, Gronk’s name should just be a given. If you want to spend up at tight end, he’s your guy. Brady could absolutely turn guys like Phillip Dorsett and Cordarrelle Patterson into stars, but the more likely outcome during Edlemen’s suspension is that Brady just leans heavier on Gronk. In last year’s matchup with Houston, Gronkowski wrangled in 8 catches for 89 yards and a score. There might not be a safer bet alive to score a touchdown this week than the Patriots super star tight end. I tend to use the TE slot to try and find value, but I definitely can’t fault anyone for wanting to take the “sure” thing.
Jack Doyle CIN @ IND $3,600
All of the excitement concerning Jack Doyle seemingly fizzled out as soon as the Colts brought Eric Ebron into the fold. In the words of Lee Corso, Not so fast, my friend! If the preseason was any indication, Doyle should remain on the field for almost every play, while Ebron will come into the game whenever the offense requires two tight ends. Despite logging significant time under center during the exhibition games, it’s likely that Andrew Luck will still be a bit rusty, and could lean heavily on his safety blanket tight end in this one. I really like Doyle this week.
Charles Clay BUF @ BAL $3,500
Wait! Hear me out! Despite my strong urge to play a lineup using a Bills stack, I don’t honestly expect much out of their offense on Sunday. Everyone remembers the debacle in Los Angeles last season when Peterman threw 5 picks in the first half. It’s very likely Baltimore will take an early lead in this one. But what does a team do when they’re down big? They throw. They throw a lot. Clay has proven capable of providing solid numbers in the past, and depending on how you feel about Kelvin Benjamin and Zay Jones, Clay will almost certainly be the most reliable target on the field for the Buffalo offense. I wouldn’t do it in cash. But he’s worth a flyer in GPP.
Nick Vannett SEA @ DEN $2,600
You want big savings? Vannet is your man. With Ed Dickson out due to injury, Vannett will be the #1 tight end for the Seahawks in week 1. This is a good time to remind you that last year, Jimmy Graham paced the league with 26 red zone targets. Am I saying Nick Vannett is Jimmy Graham? Of course not. Am I saying that Nick Vannett has a chance to be the best tight end value of the slate? Yes. Yes I am. Like Clay, I don’t trust him for cash, but he makes for an excellent dart throw in GPP.
NFL DFS DraftKings Defense/Special Teams
Baltimore Ravens Buf @ BAL $3,800
I’m not sure what the record for highest ownership % for a DST is, but there’s a chance that Baltimore hits it. They will be the chalkiest of all chalk plays. The Bills have a quarterback whose only real career accomplishment is throwing 5 interceptions in a single half, a declining 30 year old running back, and an abysmal offensive line. Oh, and the starting wideouts are Kelvin Benjamin and Zay Jones. The Ravens are pretty much a must start in cash games. However, despite all logic, I will probably be pivoting in GPP contests to try and get a jump on a ton of other entries.
Jacksonville Jaguars JAX @ NYG $3,700
Jacksonville is one of my favorite NFL DFS DST options for Sunday. Due to the hype surrounding the Ravens, the Jaguars unit is going to carry the lowest ownership they might see all year. This is despite the fact that they will be facing a quarterback in Eli Manning who has quite the penchant for turnovers. I’ll definitely have some exposure to a Fournette/Jags DST stack this Sunday.
Los Angeles Chargers KC @ LAC $2,800
This is a pick that could blow up in my face. Any offense that features Tyreek Hill is a threat to score every time they snap the ball. I also already wrote about how much I like Kareem Hunt this week. All that being said, the Chargers have a dominant pass rusher in Joey Bosa, and a talented secondary that could give new Chiefs starter, Patrick Mahomes fits on Sunday. There were reports out of training camp that Mahomes was struggling with interceptions during practices, and I won’t be surprised to see the young quarterback make a few mistakes in week 1.
Next. NFL FanDuel Week 1 Plays & Fades. dark