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NFL lines, Week 1 2018: 5 best bets

By Jeremy Morris

GLENDALE, AZ - AUGUST 12: Running back David Johnson #31 of the Arizona Cardinals rushes the football past cornerback David Amerson #29 of the Oakland Raiders during the first half of the NFL game at the University of Phoenix Stadium on August 12, 2017 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
GLENDALE, AZ - AUGUST 12: Running back David Johnson #31 of the Arizona Cardinals rushes the football past cornerback David Amerson #29 of the Oakland Raiders during the first half of the NFL game at the University of Phoenix Stadium on August 12, 2017 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /
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In the debut Wednesday Picks column, we look ahead at the upcoming NFL season, cover some trends to watch and give you five Week 1 picks and five season win total/playoff bets.

The New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons and Detroit Lions have all had dynamic offenses the last two seasons and all three benefit from playing in domes.

  • Two hit the over close to 70 percent of the time at home last season.
  • The third went under in 75 percent of their home games.

Know which team’s are which? You’d be surprised to hear who the odd team out is. Keep reading and we’ll come back to these three.

Introduction

This is a preview of a weekly staple that I’ll be writing this NFL season. I will post this every Wednesday morning giving five bets to take on the upcoming weekend’s slate of games. Additionally, I’ll recap the results from the previous week, track the cumulative record of picks all season and give some observations and thoughts on the season and trends to watch going forward. For a little added entertainment, I’ll have a common theme or premise that ties all five picks together.

Methodology

I don’t have a complex algorithm or any kind of proprietary system but I make picks based on one or several of the following:

  • Trends over the last five(ish) seasons
  • Trends and results so far this season (once the season is underway)
  • Where the public money goes, or where it doesn’t go more specifically
  • Best value
  • The eye test, what I’ve seen from each team on the field in recent games
  • External factors like dome vs. open stadiums, potential for weather to impact outcomes/points, and game times when teams are going from Pacific to Eastern Time.

Since this is for an audience of readers and not just an investment prospectus, I’ll try to feature more Thursday night, Monday night and Sunday night games — not at the expense of picking winners, though. All thing’s being equal, I’ll lean towards primetime games, but I’m not passing on what I think is a layup on Sunday afternoon just to make a pick on a nationally-televised game.

To give some insight into how I make picks and what I look for, here are a couple of trends/indicators I like in five teams for the upcoming season:

♣Since 2009, the New England Patriots are 26-11 (.703) against the spread and 31-5 (.861) straight up following a loss. They have a 5-0 record both against the spread and straight up after a loss the last two seasons. The two or three times the Pats lose this season, I’m all over them the following week.

♣The 2017 Los Angeles Chargers lost five games by a combined 18 points, four by three points or less. Phillip Rivers has thrown for 4,000 yards and 28 touchdowns each of the last five seasons. Melvin Gordon has had over 1,400 yards from scrimmage each of the last two seasons and the Chargers’ addition of Mike Pouncey at center will have a huge positive impact on the running game between the tackles.

I’m not quite as high on the Chargers as some people early and they may even stumble a bit out of the gate with so many preseason injuries but I think they’ll be a better than average team in 2018 and find their way back to the playoffs with a strong second half.

♣Playing at home last season, the New Orleans Saints and Detroit Lions were 6-3 and 6-2 hitting the over on total points. The Saints bring back everyone from last year’s offense plus tight end Benjamin Watson and rookie wide receiver, Tre’Quan Smith, from UCF . Without Mark Ingram for four games, they’ll be relying more on Alvin Kamara and on the passing game early. Detroit put up a ton of points last season partially because they threw the ball in every situation.

This offseason, they added free agent LeGarrette Blount and drafted Kerryon Johnson from Auburn. I expect the Saints to score a lot of points and hit a majority of overs again, especially early. And I like the Lions to control the clock, rely a little more on the running game, and put more emphasis on defense under head coach Matt Patricia. Look for the Lions to go under more than they go over in 2018.

♣The Atlanta Falcons (the odd team out from the example above) went 16-2-1 hitting overs in 2016 and were a popular pick to hit the over in 2017 with Julio Jones and Matt Ryan still the leaders on offense. But they were 5-13 hitting overs last year and 2-6 at home.

They’re a different team offensively without Kyle Shanahan and have progressively improved on defense under Dan Quinn, who is a defensive-minded coach having come from the Seattle coaching staff during the early years of the ‘Legion of Boom’.

Now, onto my five Week 1 and season bets.

The theme: Nicolas Cage movies (just keep reading and it will make sense).