NFL lines, Week 1 2018: 5 best bets

The Cardinals won eight games in 2017 even though David Johnson missed 15 games and Carson Palmer missed nine. David Johnson will be back and the Cardinals added Sam Bradford at quarterback. In 2016, Bradford completed 71.6 percent of his passes for 3,877 yards, 20 touchdowns and only five interceptions.

Last season in Week 1 against the Saints before he got injured, he had one of the best individual game performances I’ve ever seen, no hyperbole. He went 27-of-32 for 346 yards, threw three touchdowns and no interceptions against what turned out to be a pretty good defense. Watch it (Vikings vs. Saints, 2017) if you think that sounds insane. He made some unbelievable throws, even under pressure, especially to Adam Thielen in the slot, where he’ll have Larry Fitzgerald this year.

Injuries are always going to be a concern with Bradford but if he can play even seven or eight games and manage the offense before Josh Rosen is ready, the Cardinals should get an overall upgrade at quarterback on top of a massive upgrade at running back with Johnson’s return.

Bradford is capable of playing at a very high level, much like Nick Cage is actually capable of being a good actor, even if no one recognizes or realizes it because of all the examples that would prove otherwise in his career. Raising Arizona is a legitimately great movie and Cage was excellent but I understand how most overlook this movie and point to movies like Ghost Rider, Ghost Rider 2 and Bangkok Dangerous (which is going to be atrocious based on name alone) to judge his movies and ability as an actor.

The defense loses Tyrann Mathieu at free/strong safety but second-year safety Budda Baker will step in as a full-time starter in the secondary. Baker is an incredible tackler, flies all over the field and impacts all aspects of the game. He made the Pro Bowl as a special teamer last season, leading the NFL in special teams tackles and in seven starts at safety, he had 35 tackles, an interception and a pair of forced fumbles.

The defense also brings back Patrick Peterson, Chandler Jones and Deone Bucannon could get a massive boost upfront if 2017 first-round pick Robert Nkemdiche is healthy.

Losing Bruce Arians as head coach hurts and maybe all these things I’ve mentioned don’t fall into place. Still, the bar is incredibly low at 5.5 wins. Take the Cards to win six games or more in 2018.

The public is out on Arizona and Washington is generating a dusting of hype from the “everybody’s doubting us/we actually upgraded at quarterback” narrative. The dusting won’t stick especially on the road (pun intended) and will have melted by Monday morning. Take the Cardinals to win straight up in Week 1.