DraftKings CFB Early picks September 8: Ride the Ohio State offense

DraftKings CFB  Early picks September 8: Ride the Ohio State offense

We have 15 games between noon and 2:30 that are featured by DraftKings in this tournament. There is a lot of talent here, but only one FCS team on the slate. There are a couple more than play like FCS teams. Should we stick to competitive games, or go for the blowouts? Keytaon Thompson racked up 63.5 DraftKings CFB points last week against a FCS squad, but not all stars fared that well.

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Top Tier:

Kyler Murray ($11,000): UCLA’s defense looked pretty awful against Cincinnati. Murray only played one half against Florida Atlantic. He should get a little more run here, but I tend to think this game is going to get away from UCLA as well. I think I’m going to lean more towards the backs here, but I do believe that Murray plays around three quarters here, which could put him in the upper 30’s for DraftKings points.

Dwayne Haskins ($10,800): Haskins had a big game against an Oregon State team that is worse than Rutgers, if you can believe that. The Buckeyes are going to give him plenty of run before conference season. For that reason, Haskins has a higher floor than anyone else in a game that is destined to be a blowout. If you are going to spend up, Haskins is about as safe as you can get.

Khalil Tate ($10,400): I am a bit concerned by the lack of weapons around Tate, but this Houston defense outside of Ed Oliver was dreadful for the first 40 minutes against Rice. Tate still had a decent score against BYU. I would expect him to be the entire offense again unless Oliver kills him first. It is entirely possible behind this line. I would go with Tate over the Mississippi State QB’s because that is going to be a blowout, and Thompson likely earned more run with his monster week 1.

Middle Tier:

Justin Herbert ($9,900): Herbert played a lot in the blowout of Bowling Green, so he should be in there for the bulk of the game against Portland State as well. Haskins is probably still the safer bet, but both of them could put up huge point totals against inferior defenses here. Herbert is kind of in that price range where he isn’t enough cheaper than Haskins to justify not freeing up the $900 extra to go for the souped up model.

Tua Tagovailoa ($8,700): I usually stay away from places where two quarterbacks are going to play, but seeing what Tua was able to do in the opener, I’m comfortable with him at this price even if he only plays a half. We all know that Hurts is going to get run here as well, but there will be plenty to go around against Arkansas State.

Steven Montez ($8,500): Montez destroyed Colorado State in the opener. I really wish Nebraska had played a game so we knew how that defense was going to look. Nebraska wasn’t good defending the run or pass last year. I’m more inclined to use running backs, but Montez looks pretty appetizing at this price.

Bargain Shoppers:

Alex Hornibrook ($6,900): Hornibrook is nothing to get excited about, but he could be against this poor New Mexico defense. The Badgers were content to run the ball at will, and they will again, but Hornibrook quietly threw for 257 yards in a convincing win over a Western Kentucky team that is better than this week’s opponent. There is decent potential for the price. Just realize that Hornibrook isn’t going to put up a massive score in a run first offense.

Justice Hansen ($5,900): The Oklahoma transfer has a really good arm on him. Alabama is going to destroy Hansen, but once the first and second team defenses are out of there, there is lots of potential for tons of garbage yards for Hansen. Of course, this could blow up in our face, but Arkansas State is a pass first offense anyway. They are going to be playing from behind the whole game, so there is good potential here.

Davis Alexander ($5,500): Oregon bowled over Bowling Green, but they did allow a lot of yards. Alexander had a good total against Nevada, and 20 DraftKings points against Oregon is not out of the question either. Much as with Hansen, Portland State is going to be passing a lot to try and make this respectable.

Jon Wassink ($5,200): Wassink had a really good game against Kentucky. Kentucky’s defense isn’t even in the same galaxy as Michigan, but Michigan’s defense wasn’t great against Notre Dame. They were good. Wassink isn’t going to go nuts here, but he should rack up a respectable total.

Top Tier:

Jonathan Taylor ($10,100): Taylor only carried 18 times in the opener, but he turned that into 28.5 DraftKings points. I would expect his workload to be about the same against New Mexico. That will put a dent in his ceiling, but I do agree with Wisconsin not putting him in too much danger in games that are out of hand. We will just have to deal with that for a while. Still, I’ll take 28.5 points and not be disappointed. What about you?

Rodney Anderson ($9,400): Anderson ran for 100 yards and two touchdowns on just five carries. FIVE! I would expect more carries and probably more yards against a UCLA defense that was constantly put in bad positions by their offense last week. That isn’t going to change this week no matter who is under center. The Oklahoma starters should play more than a half in this one, so I would expect to see Anderson around 18-20 carries. He could turn that into pretty big numbers.

Middle Tier:

Mike Weber ($7,900): Weber ran for well over double the yards that Dobbins did, and scored a staggering four touchdowns! We know that both are going to have big roles in this offense. As far as to who gets more of what, we likely wont know until the game starts. However, Weber looked better and more comfortable running than Dobbins did. He is going to be chalk this week, and those willing to take a bit of a risk on Dobbins could come out ahead in this equation.

Karan Higdon ($7,500): It took the Kentucky ground game a bit to get going last week against Western Michigan, but once they did, it was gold for their backs. Higdon carried 21 times with little success against the stout Notre Dame front. The going is going to be easier here for Higdon. He should have a nice game for the price.

Travon McMillian ($6,200): McMillian had a field day against Colorado State. Nebraska’s run defense was one of the worst in FBS last year. I know that Frost probably helped that out some, but McMillian could be a sneaky source of close to 20 DraftKings points again. This defense didn’t get a massive influx of talent, so they are still going to have some holes.

Bargain Shoppers:

Kirvonte Benson ($6,000): Benson isn’t a household name, but he is the starting running back for the best option offense in the country. That counts for a lot! South Florida’s defense is pretty good, but Benson is going to get 20 touches or more. His price is a bargain for that kind of guaranteed workload.

Trey Sermon ($5,700): I liked what I saw from Sermon last week. He actually had more carries, but less yards, than Rodney Anderson. That isn’t going to be a weekly thing, but Sermon should get at least a dozen touches a week. He put up 12.9 DraftKings points with nine touches last week, so there is good value for the price.

Kazmeir Allen ($3,900): There is significant risk here due to the committee approach in the UCLA backfield. Oklahoma’s defense looked great against Devin Singletary, but I still think they are going to have issues with backs that have sprinter’s speed, which Allen does. Allen will likely get ten touches or less, but he is the only player on the field that is a threat to take it the distance any time the ball winds up in his hands.

Top Tier:

McLane Mannix ($8,300): Mannix had a monster day with 132 yards and three touchdowns on four catches in the opener. Vanderbilt has a decent defense, but I do think that Nevada is going to be forced into throwing here. That could turn out to be a good thing for Mannix as more targets should come his way.

Marquise Brown ($7,700): You would have thought that Brown was the only Oklahoma receiver running routes with as much as Murray targeted him. That means a huge amount of targets should find their way to Brown again. He had 28.3 DraftKings points in the opener. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him go over that total in this one.

Jerry Jeudy ($7,200): Say hello to the heir to Amari Cooper and Calvin Ridley. Jeudy was targeted by both quarterbacks in this one. Jeudy ended up with a pair of touchdowns in this one. Don’t be surprised if he duplicates that feat against an Arkansas State team that wont be able to cover him.

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Middle Tier:

Dillon Mitchell ($7,000): The fact that Mannix had a monster game against Portland State bodes well for Oregon should they decide to throw the ball. The problem here is that only two Ducks caught more than one pass in the opener. Oregon spread the ball around a lot in that game, and could again here. At least one Oregon receiver will score a touchdown, but there are about six different guys that it could be.

Marquez Stevenson ($6,600): Arizona was mostly gouged on the ground last week, but Houston doesn’t run much. Still, with their receivers both down around this price, I like both of them here. Stevenson is the safer pick because of more targets, but both he and Lark will likely see at least a half dozen balls come their way. There is good potential for both here.

Deebo Samuel ($6,300): Samuel’s leg didn’t seem to be an issue at all in the opener, which is all that South Carolina was really concerned with. Georgia’s defense is stout, but Samuel is a very dangerous receiver when healthy. He is still priced as if he may not be. This is one of the few times that we can grab the potential of Samuel for this price. Ownership should also be low against a good defense.

A.J. Taylor ($6,200): With Quintez Ceephus suspended indefinitely and Danny Davis serving a suspension this week, Taylor should see just about every target in the passing game. New Mexico allowed over 300 passing yards to Incarnate Word in the opener. My only question is how much Wisconsin will actually throw since they don’t have to. I could see a bench receiver having a bigger game than anyone else, but good luck picking out which one will.

Bargain Shoppers:

Laviska Shenault ($5,900): Shenault broke his career numbers in catches, yardage, and touchdowns in just one game against Colorado State. It appears as though Shenault is that threat at WR that Colorado just didn’t have last year. I’m afraid of high ownership here, but Nebraska’s defense wasn’t very good last year. I do expect them to be improved, but just how much? This is a lower priced investment to find out.

Kendric Pryor ($5,900): Pryor is intriguing as the number two wideout for the Badgers again this week, but he isn’t much cheaper than the starter. Pryor could be the one to own since he also ran for a touchdown last week. If the Badgers want to get Hornibrook some more passing practice, this is the place to do it, but I still don’t expect Wisconsin to open up the passing game. That’s just not what they do.

Devonta Smith ($5,500): Smith actually led Alabama in receiving yards, but it was Jeudy that caught the two touchdowns. Smith could actually be a safer play due to the amount of targets. The touchdowns will come. He may not outscore Jeudy, but Smith still looks like a value at this price.

Charlie Taumoepeau ($5,100): Taumoepeau had a big game playing catch up against Nevada last week. Of course, the Vikings never actually caught Nevada. They wont catch Oregon either. But there is fantasy goodness here while they try! Oregon gave up quite a few yards and points last week to Bowling Green.

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