1. Bet the Saints big to cover the 9.5 point spread versus Tampa Bay
Make no mistake about it, 9.5 points is a large spread in the NFL. It is the largest spread of the opening week by a full two points. However, it’s still the best play available. The Saints are just that much better than the Buccaneers.
Remember, Tampa Bay won’t have Jameis Winston in this game. He’s out due to suspension. That means the Buccaneers will lean on Ryan Fitzpatrick to move the football. It’s hard to envision that being a solid plan against the Saints defense.
Things on the other side of the football are even worse for Tampa Bay. Vita Vea may miss out due to injury. That’s a big blow for a defense that desperately needs to dominate the line of scrimmage to be successful. Sean Payton isn’t going to bludgeon the Bucs with his ground game, but Alvin Kamara will have room to run.
Drew Brees is the guy you really want to count on for this wager. Some scouts think his game is starting to decline slightly, but it won’t show up on tape in this game. Look for him to throw for over 300 yards and at least two touchdowns. It’s more a question of how the Saints will score than whether or not they can victimize this defense.
The Buccaneers might stand firm for a quarter or so, but the Saints avalanche will come. They are the best bet of the opening weekend.