College Football picks against the spread September 8, 2018

College Football picks against the spread September 8, 2018

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With the NFL beginning this week, the college boys took a back seat and only have one game tonight with the other 48 FBS vs. FBS games happening on Saturday.

For those of you that are new to this, I pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread! I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other football.

I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. 1 means that I have little to no confidence. 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year. I went 400-75 last season and ended up with 31 points in my point bank. I am aiming for 55% this year. It’s harder than it looks! I didn’t get off to a great start in week 1. I dug myself a bit of a hole to crawl out of.

This is for entertainment purposes only! I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I can’t have that on my conscious.

Without further delay, we get to week 2!

(16)TCU(-22.5) at SMU(2):

The battle for the Iron Skillet (it’s true…..I wouldn’t lie to you) is usually hotly contested, but TCU blasted the Ponies last year. This year’s teams doesn’t look as good as last year. We didn’t learn much about TCU in the shellacking of Southern. I learned all I needed to know when North Texas pulled away from SMU. Give me the Toadies.

New Mexico at (5)Wisconsin(-34.5)(3):

The Lobos gave up over 300 passing yards to Incarnate Word last week. The problem is Wisconsin doesn’t pass. That makes it hard for the Badgers to cover lines like that. That said, this is identical to the Western Kentucky line. The Hilltoppers are a much better team. Give me the Badgers this time.

(18)Mississippi State(-8.5) at Kansas State(5):

Huh? K-State only beat South Dakota – not to be confused with South Dakota State, who is actually a FCS contender – by three points, and they needed a late touchdown to do it. This line is bogus. Mississippi State by three touchdowns, and that might even be low. I’m making this my lock already. I smell blowout.

Western Michigan at (21)Michigan(-27.5)(2):

I don’t think that Michigan’s offense is as bad as Notre Dame’s defense made them look. The problem here was that Michigan’s defense didn’t look great, and this is supposed to be far and away the best unit in the Big Ten(14). I see Western Michigan hanging around long enough for Michigan not to cover this.

Eastern Michigan at Purdue(-16.5)(3):

Purdue’s offense gave a tough Northwestern defense all they could handle. I still don’t like the two quarterback system for the Boilers, but Rondale Moore is going to be unstoppable for the Eagles. There is no one on the team that can catch him. Give me Purdue.

Liberty at Army(-7.5)(1)

This line has plummeted four points already, and I expect it to close at under a touchdown. Army looked terrible against Duke on offense, but Duke has a pretty good defense. Liberty just dominated Old Dominion, who I thought was a decent team. Either I’m wrong, or Army’s in trouble. Give me Liberty.

Nevada at Vanderbilt(-9.5)(3):

I know that Nevada is better than Middle Tennessee State on offense. A lot better. However, their defense had trouble against Portland State. For under double digits, this looks pretty good for Vandy. Their offense is going to look better than it has in a while.

Arizona at Houston(-3.5)(1):

This one looks like a sucker bet. BYU’s defense is really good. They made Arizona look far worse than they actually are. Houston struggled with Rice defensively, but once the offense got going, Houston looked very dangerous. BYU carved up Arizona on the ground. That isn’t really Houston’s game, but I think they can figure it out. I’ll take Houston.

Duke at Northwestern(-2.5)(2):

This Northwestern defense looked nasty. Duke did very well against an option, but teams popped the top off this defense a few times last year. That isn’t Thorson’s game, but Green? That’s a different story. I expect a very close and very physical game. Give me Northwestern at home for under a field goal, but I’m not real confident in it.

Georgia Tech(-3.5) at South Florida(1):

Well, this is interesting. Blake Barnett replaced the best QB in South Florida history pretty well in the opener, but facing a FBS defense is going to be more difficult. So is stopping an option. We didn’t really learn much about either team in the openers. Give me USF at home, but there is no way I would bet this.

Georgia State at North Carolina State(-24.5)(2):

I hate that half. The James Madison team that the Wolfpack struggled with in the opener is quite a bit better than Georgia State. I get the feeling that Finley is going to have a big game here, but I still don’t like that half. I’ll just lower the bet. Give me the Wolfpack.

UCLA at (6)Oklahoma(-29.5)(2):

That’s more than they were favored by against FAU! This line is up five points, and will likely go even higher. I think it may be a bit too high. FAU didn’t have what was the biggest problem for the Oklahoma defense last year: speed. UCLA has it in spades. That said, this UCLA defense wont be able to stop much of anything. I’ll take Oklahoma.

Air Force at Florida Atlantic(-9.5)(1):

Devin Singletary is a load, but can the Owls pass the ball? The good thing for them is that Air Force isn’t going to get far enough ahead that they will have to. I think the Air Force defense is good enough to keep this within one score. I’ll take the Falcons.

Kansas at Central Michigan(-4.5)(5):

Central Michigan at least looked respectable against Kentucky. Kansas lost at home to Nicholls State. This is way too low. CMU by double digits.

Arkansas State at (1)Alabama(-36.5)(2):

See, this is an interesting one. Louisville didn’t have a quarterback that could get the ball downfield, so the secondary wasn’t tested. Arkansas State has a quarterback that can get it down the field, but does the line have a prayer at giving Hansen long enough to throw? That is the five dollar (or whatever you bet) question: If Hansen has time, Bama wont cover. If he doesn’t, it’s blowout 2: the sequel in Tuscaloosa. Ah, what the hell. Give me Arkansas State. I’ll say 42-7 Bama.

(3)Georgia(-9.5) at (24)South Carolina(2):

You can’t pull one over on Vegas. Deebo Samuel looked good last week. If he is completely recovered from the broken leg that took most of his 2017, he makes the Gamecocks a lot more dangerous. That said, Georgia has like 25 running backs that run a 4.4 40, and those are just the ones on scholarship. The South Carolina defense is going to be tested in a big way, and I’m not sure they’ll hold up. Give me Georgia.

Rutgers at (4)Ohio State(-34.5)(2):

I know Rutgers is better than Oregon State, but how much? 13 points? If so, that would only be a 34 point loss and there goes my moolah. Rutgers looked good in the opener, but their defense is going to get destroyed. Give me Brutus.

Ball State at (8)Notre Dame(-34.5)(1):

Ball State looked pretty good with all of their toys back after they lost their starting QB and RB by week 3 last year. That said, This Notre Dame defense may have been the best one I saw all of last week. Michigan is not nearly as bad as the Irish made them look. My only question is whether the offense can score enough to cover. I’m not sure they can. Ball State isn’t a horrible team. I’ll take the Fighting Letterman’s!

Colorado at Nebraska(-3.5)(4):

I wish that Nebraska had played last week because I still don’t know what this defense is going to look like. Just based on facts, Colorado is going to win this game, maybe by double digits. They thrashed Colorado State last week. Nebraska will still have first game jitters from a freshman QB. Colorado looked like they could stop the run against poor competition, but what does that mean? It means we still don’t know a lot, but I do know that Montez can chuck it past all of the Nebraska DB’s. Give me the Ralphies.

Buffalo at Temple(-4.5)(3):

Temple probably should have lost to Villanova last week. Buffalo’s QB threw six touchdowns against their FCS opponent. I like Buffalo straight up.

Memphis(-5.5) at Navy(2):

I don’t know that I buy this. Hawaii has a pretty good team, so Navy losing out there on the islands doesn’t mean the line should be this far up. Memphis throttled Mercer, but that means little. The concern here is that Navy got torched, especially on deep balls, by Hawaii. Fortunately for the Middies, Memphis doesn’t have a receiver like John Ursua. Or Boyd, for that matter. Give me Navy straight up.

North Carolina(-16.5) at East Carolina(5):

There was a time that heading into Greenville was dangerous. Considering that the Pirates lost to North Carolina A&T last week….uh…..this line is way too low. UNC wins BIG!

Iowa State at Iowa(-3.5)(2):

I wish Iowa State had played their game too. Not because they needed the experience. Just so I can see how Kempt does without Allen Lazard. I still like Iowa State, but I’m lowering the bet.

Maryland(-15.5) at Bowling Green(2):

Hangover is a real thing. Maryland just got a huge win – again – over Texas. However, the Terps are anything but. They have a ton of athletes on this team. We saw what happened when Bowling Green went up against athletes last week. Give me Maryland.

Massachusetts at Georgia Southern(-2.5)(1)

If UMass had a defense, they would be a pretty good team. That said, their passing game is very good. Good enough that, so help me, I think UMass can win. Give me the Minutemen.

Appalachian State(-13.5) at Charlotte(4):

I’m not sure why this is falling. The Mountaineers gave Penn State everything they wanted. Sure, they may suffer a bit of hangover from that, but that defense is legit. I’m not sure Charlotte can stop Zac Thomas. I’m pretty sure they can’t. Give me the Mountaineers by about 20.

(2)Clemson(-11.5) at Texas A&M(3):

This is a dangerous game for Clemson. Texas A&M has a really good offense, and that defense isn’t too shabby either. This game should be one of the most exciting of the week. I expect a close one.  Definitely within double digits. Give me A&M.

Louisiana-Monroe vs. Southern Mississippi(-5.5)(2):

Southern Miss thrashed Walter Payton U. The Warhawks had trouble with Southeast Louisiana (who plays LSU this week, by the way). I think the Eagles are good for a TD at home. Give me Southern Miss.

UAB(-9.5) at Coastal Carolina(1)

So the Gamecocks trashed Coastal Carolina. Who didn’t see that coming? Does that mean they should be ten point dogs at home? That seems a bit extreme. That said, UAB made a bowl last year, and A.J. Erdely looked pretty good running this offense. Did UAB get more out of hammering Savannah State than CCU did playing practice squad for South Carolina? Probably. Give me UAB.

Baylor(-15.5) at UTSA(2):

Baylor looked sloppy against Abilene Christian. UTSA looked overmatched against Arizona State. The Roadrunners played well against everyone not named Oklahoma State at home last year. I don’t know…….this looks a little high. Give me UTSA.

Wyoming at Missouri(-19.5)(2):

This line keeps rising, mostly thanks to Wyoming getting smashed by the Leaches at home. Missouri’s offense is very good. I’m not sure about the defense, but Wyoming’s offense isn’t a well oiled machine anyway. They still have a freshman only two games in starting at QB. I’ll take Missouri.

Kentucky at (25)Florida(-13.5)(1):

Forgive me if I don’t believe in Feleipe Franks yet. Sure, he looked good against Charleston Southern. At least Kentucky beat a decent FBS school. They may not have looked that good doing it, but they did. Kentucky has always had issues with Florida, especially in the Swamp, but Florida’s defense can dominate the game. The offense may not. This looks a touch high. Give me Kentucky. I want to see more from Franks before I go all in on Florida.

Virginia at Indiana(-5.5)(1):

Virginia has a very good offense (for once) to go with that crazy defense. I’m not sure that Indiana is really equipped to stop the Cavs. They looked pretty good against FIU, but I tend to think Virginia’s offense is better. Then again, we don’t know because they played FCS Richmond. I’ll take Indiana at home, but I’m not all that confident about it.

Arkansas(-13.5) at Colorado State(4):

I don’t know much about Arkansas, but I know plenty about Colorado State. They got mowed down by Colorado after not looking good against Hawaii. This isn’t a fluke. Colorado State has no defense. Give me the Piggies.

Utah(-10.5) at Northern Illinois(2):

The return of Britain Covey added another dimension to an already dangerous Utah offense. Northern Illinois did not look good at Iowa, but this crowd is going to be nuts with a big name school coming into DeKalb. Still, I don’t see NIU staying all that close. Utah pulls away. I’ll take the Utes.

Florida International at Old Dominion(-1.5)(4):

Huh? This line opened with FIU favored, and should have stayed that way. Losing to a power five team at home is one thing. Getting spanked by a team in their first game in FBS at home is another. I’ll take FIU.

Fresno State at Minnesota(-1.5)(2):

This is going to be a fun one. That Fresno offense is dangerous, but Minnesota’s looked pretty good too. And that defense looked nasty. I’ll take Minnesota at home, but this is going to be a great game for the fans to watch, so long as you like offense.

(13)Penn State(-8.5) at Pittsburgh(2):

This Pitt offense is a veteran unit. After seeing Penn State struggle at home against Appalachian State, this line is predictably lower than you would think. Pitt has to think they have a chance. Penn State always struggles in the Steel City. I’m not sure Pitt wins outright, but I think they keep this within a touchdown.

New Mexico State at Utah State(-23.5)(2):

The Aggies looked good in the opener against a Michigan State team that is supposed to be a Big Ten(14) contender. I have to take the Aggies at home.

South Alabama at Oklahoma State(-32.5)(3):

This line is all over the place. It is still 31 at some places, and I’ve see it as high as 34. I do understand. This Oklahoma State offense is still very dangerous. I think they show it off at home. Give me the Pokes.

Tulsa at Texas(-22.5)(1):

Really? I know Tulsa isn’t that good, but wow. With as bad as Texas looked in the opener, I fully expected this line to be lower, but Tulsa struggled with Scottie Pippen U in the opener, only winning by 11. I’ll take Texas, I guess. Tulsa was bad last year, and doesn’t look any better now.

Cincinnati at Miami(OH)(EVEN)(3):

This line is still hanging at -1.5 on either side, so the fair way is to make this even. It still is in some places. Gus Ragland is a good QB, and right now is probably better than anything UCLA has just from experience alone. That said, if Cincy can go on the road and beat the Bruins, they should be able to handle the Redhawks. I’ll take Cincy.

(17)USC at (10)Stanford(-5.5)(3):

I’m surprised the line is still this low. Stanford has one of the best players in the country in Bryce Love. I’m not worried about USC’s defense. It’s the offense scoring enough to stay with Stanford on the Farm. If this game were later in the season, it may be a different story. USC’s QB is still just 17 years old. I’ll take Stanford.

UTEP at UNLV(-23.5)(4):

It happens a couple of times a year. FBS teams lose to FCS foes at home. However, it usually doesn’t happen like it did for UTEP. The Miners lose by 20 to Northern Arizona. 20! UNLV hung with USC. This is getting ugly. I’ll take the Rebels.

Connecticut at (20)Boise State(-31.5)(2):

Wow, this is a lot. Boise nearly did this to Troy in the southern Alabama heat, so they shouldn’t have many issues beating on UConn here. I’ll take Boise.

California at BYU(-2.5)(1):

This one makes me nervous here. Cal looked pretty good against North Carolina, for three quarters anyway. BYU took down a pretty dangerous Arizona team. The defense looked really good in handling Khalil Tate. Does Cal have anything that explosive? I’m not sure they do. I expect a good one here, but give me the Cougars at home. Cal’s offense, especially Ross Bowers, looked awful in the opener.

(15)Michigan State(-5.5) at Arizona State(4):

Nope. Not buying it. This Sparky offense is quite a bit better than the Utah State squad that the Spartans just struggled with. Now they have to go to the valley of the sun? Good luck with that. Arizona State straight up.

San Jose State at Washington State(-34.5)(3):

The Leaches almost covered this at Wyoming. Now they get a team that lost to FCS UC-Davis. This gets ugly. I’ll take the Leaches.

Rice at Hawaii(-17.5)(4):

This Hawaii offense has been jump started by a new scheme and some really good receivers. Hawaii by A LOT!

That leaves us with a total of 49 FBS vs. FBS tilts this week. I ended up with 11 one pointers, 19 two pointers, nine three pointers, seven four pointers, and three five pointers. That’s a pretty good balance for this early in the season. There’s some good spots to make some money this week!