DraftKings MLB Picks September 7: Pay up for Nola

WASHINGTON, DC – MAY 28: Fans sit under an umbrella during a rain delay prior to a game between the San Diego Padres and the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on May 28, 2017 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Matt Hazlett/Getty Images) /

DraftKings MLB Picks September 7: Pay up for Nola

DraftKings left off the half hour earlier start of the Padres in Cincinnati, so our main slate has 14 games instead of 15. That takes Coors East out of play, but Coors itself is still on here…..with the Dodgers in town! There are a lot of good pitchers out there tonight and a decent middle tier as well. However, we are going to have to chase down at least one bargain to seven think about Coors as an option.

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A late start looks likely in Washington, but the rain should clear out and the game will play at some point. Everything else looks pretty clear.

We have a 14 mph wind in from left in Chicago, which could hurt some of the White Sox right handed power. The wind is blowing out to right at 12 mph in Detroit. As if Carpenter needed any more help…

We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!

These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on!

For you first time players, if you would like a free shot at a million dollars, use this link for the referral bonus with your first deposit of $5 or more! You will receive a free entry into the Fantasy Football Millionaire contest on opening weekend!

ST PETERSBURG, FL – AUGUST 21: Blake Snell #4 of the Tampa Bay Rays pitches during a game against the Kansas City Royals at Tropicana Field on August 21, 2018 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Blake Snell ($12,400): Snell definitely deserves a look whenever he pitches at home because he has a 1.06 ERA there in 11 starts this year. However, Baltimore tagged him for his worst start of the season earlier this year, and it is mostly because of all the righties in this lineup. I’m a little nervous here, but the strikeout upside is clearly there. That said, there is no way he should be $600 more than Nola. That’s absurd.

Aaron Nola ($11,800): These are the kind of numbers we want when paying top dollar for a pitcher. The Mets are hitting just .172 against Nola with only one homer and three runs in 93 at bats while striking out a whopping 30 times. Nola should probably be priced even higher than he already is. He almost borders on a must play against the Mets. Nola has 102 DraftKings points against them in four starts this season. 75.4 of those came in the last two meetings with the Mets. Lock and load Nola tonight, especially in cash games.

Carlos Carrasco ($11,600): Carrasco has a 2.97 ERA in 13 road starts this year. The Jays are hitting only .179 off of Carrasco, but they do have two homers and six runs in 56 at bats. The 19 strikeouts give Carrasco a pretty good floor, but on a large slate like this, we don’t need to reach. Carrasco was hammered by the Jays in Cleveland earlier this year. If you want to fade based solely on that, I wouldn’t blame you. This is a decent pick though.

Patrick Corbin ($11,000): If you are after Corbin against the Braves, it’s for one reason: strikeouts. Corbin has racked up 214 of them this season, but only three against the Braves in his start against them. The Braves hit Corbin well earlier this year. Corbin’s numbers are slightly worse at home, so I am nervous about this. However, Corbin does have a good floor because of the usually high number of strikeouts.

Middle Tier:

Masahiro Tanaka ($9,400): The Mariners are only hitting .206 against Tanaka, but he has allowed seven homers and 12 runs in 131 at bats with 38 strikeouts. There is nothing here that really stands out, but that’s kind of the point. Tanaka is about as solid as they come tonight, but there isn’t a ton of upside here.

Carlos Rodon ($8,300): Rodon has held the Angels to a .171 average in 35 at bats with just one homer and four runs to go with ten strikeouts. Justin Upton has that homer, and he may or may not be healthy enough to play.That said, Rodon was filthy against the Angels earlier this year, racking up 30.3 DraftKings points in that one. He also owns a 2.23 ERA in seven home starts. Surprisingly enough, pitchers could rule the day at Failed Loans Park. Especially if Trout misses the game as well.

Kevin Gausman ($7,900): The Diamondbacks are only hitting .154 in 39 at bats against Gausman with one homer, three runs, and 13 strikeouts. Those are good numbers for the price. While you never knew what you were getting from Gausman with the Orioles, he has been strong in all six starts for Atlanta. Gausman has averaged just a shade under 20 DraftKings points per game as a Brave. I’ll take that for this price.

Jon Gray ($7,400): Remember all those times that a Dodgers stack has fallen through? Take advantage of a cheap Jon Gray here! Gray has only allowed more than three runs twice since his exile to the minors. The bad news is that one of those was against the Dodgers in L.A. Gray still turned in decent numbers because of the strikeouts, so there’s that. Gray’s priced is reduced because of the game being in Coors. There is enough upside to look at Gray here. He feels safer than Kershaw relative to their pricing.

Austin Gomber ($7,100): Gomber gets a clear park upgrade and a team residing in said park that really don’t have much to worry about on offense. Gomber has given up just five runs in his last five starts. It’s true that he doesn’t strike out many batters, but if he is giving up that few runs, he is definitely worth your SP2 slot for this low of a price.

Bargain Pitchers:

Felix Pena ($6,300): Pena pitched well against the White Sox in his first meeting with them, but he only struck out two, if you can believe that. That stands as Pena’s lowest strikeout total of the season. When you factor in that Pena has a 2.14 ERA on the road and a strikeout per inning in those contests, Pena looks like a huge bargain here. I tend to think that he will at least quadruple his strikeout total from the first meeting.

Daniel Norris ($5,000): Norris missed four months of the season with a groin injury, but he looked good against the Yankees in his first start back, allowing only two runs on one hit and a walk in 4.1 innings. I don’t think the Tigers are going to push him too hard here, but Norris could neutralize Carpenter here. He struck out seven Yankees in that span, so there is clear strikeout upside here for a very low price.

Joe Ross ($4,900): This is the first start back from Tommy John surgery, so there is huge risk with Ross. However, he did throw 87 pitches in his last of six rehab starts. The Cubs have four runs in 44 at bats against Ross with no homers and 10 strikeouts. If he isn’t so rusty that he can keep the ball in the park, Ross could be a nice bargain at this price. The strikeout upside is there.

Stephen Gonsalves ($4,200): Gonsalves only gave up one earned run in 3.2 innings in Texas in his last starts. That’s his crowning achievement as a major league pitcher so far. Why is there upside here? It’s the Royals! You could stack on Gonsalves, and I would completely understand it. However, the Royals strike out quite a bit and there isn’t much on this offense to be scared of. Maybe the rookie can get a little momentum here. His defense failed him in Arlington. Other than that, it was a solid outing.

OAKLAND, CA – SEPTEMBER 03: Khris Davis #2 of the Oakland Athletics hits an rbi single scoring Matt Chapman #26 against the New York Yankees in the bottom of the first inning at Oakland Alameda Coliseum on September 3, 2018 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) /

Washington Nationals vs. Jon Lester:

The regression is already happening to Lester, but it could get a lot worse tonight. The Nationals are hitting .287 with four homers and 25 runs in 157 at bats. Zimmerman has two of those homers. Harper and Mark Reynolds have the others. Wieters has nine RBI against Lester in his career. Eaton and Trea Turner have hit Lester well enough to warrant a look as well.

Houston Astros vs. David Price:

Price has had a very nice second half, so this is a contrarian stack of sorts. Of course, the price on the Astros is going to drive people off of this. However, we don’t need to break the bank to go after Price. Bregman, Springer, and Jake Marisnick have homered against Price, but the one that has done the most damage is Brian McCann. McCann is 11-32(.344) with three homers and eight RBI off of Price. Gurriel and Altuve have both hit price well enough to consider. Tyler White‘s price is a bit high for me, but he does crush lefties.

Kansas City Royals vs. Stephen Gonsalves:

I said that I could see stacking on Gonsalves, and I can. Partially because the Twins have one of the worst bullpens that I’ve ever seen. This is like the Tigers from four or five years ago. Merrifield and Mondesi are the logical places to start. Hunter Dozier, Jorge Bonifacio, and even the lefty O’Hearn are worth a look here. This is a complete boom or bust stack though.

Oakland Athletics vs. Yovani Gallardo:

Gallardo hasn’t been as bad as most of our stack targets, but Oakland is a pesky offense. When Oakland has beaten up on pitchers this year, it has usually been those that don’t strike anyone out. That’s Gallardo. He has three strikeouts or less in four of the last five games, including only one against the K-happy Twins. Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Laureano, Martini, Joyce, and Fowler are all worth a look depending on who is in the lineup. Jed Lowrie is worth a look as well. This isn’t one banking on home runs. This is more for lots of baserunners, which can be almost as high scoring as home run hitters. It is worth noting that Khris Davis has three homers off of Gallardo in just ten at bats.

Texas Rangers vs. Chris Bassitt:

With all due respect to Royals-Twins, this game has the two worst combined starting pitchers. It can be hard to advocate a game stack in the gargantuan stadium in Oakland, but the pitchers may be bad enough, and balls hit into gaps count as points too. Texas has a lot of left handed power, and the Rangers clobbered Bassitt in his only career start against them. Odor, Choo, Profar, and Mazara are definitely in play here. I also like Elvis and DeShields at the top of an order that could score a lot of runs.

DENVER, CO – AUGUST 21: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies follows the flight of a third inning RBI double against the San Diego Padres at Coors Field on August 21, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Estrada has pitched well lately, and his career numbers aren’t bad enough that we need to stack. However, Edwin, Yan Gomes, Rajai Davis, and Brantley have all homered against Estrada in the past. Using one of them as a one off is not a horrible idea.

I don’t know quite what to do with Joe Ross. Stacking against a guy coming off of Tommy John surgery is not a terrible idea. I would like Rizzo and Bryant as building blocks if you want to go that route. Otherwise, this seems like a Rizzo or stack play. Nothing in between.

The Brewers have a lot of left handed power, and one of Derek Holland‘s saving graces this year is that he can still get lefties out. If you want to go after Holland, use Braun, Cain, and/or Aguilar. No current Brewer has homered off of Holland though.

Clayton Kershaw has a 4.65 ERA in 14 career starts at Coors Field. Nolan Arenado has homered three times against him. Just putting that out there. Don’t get crazy, but a Rockies righty or three is not a horrible idea.

Wow, the Dodgers are EXPENSIVE. Too expensive for me to really consider. I may take a shot with Muncy, but that’s about it. I tend to think we can do better. I don’t see this being a typical Coors game. For example, Arenado is $600 less than Muncy. Howe does that make sense?

It would take a giant leap of faith to use Cole in Fenway. It would also take a lot to really put much against him. However, Benintendi, J.D., and Mitch Moreland have homered off of Cole in his career.

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Middle Tier:

I like some of the Cardinals right handed power here against Daniel Norris. Paul DeJong and Marcell Ozuna are the two that stand out to me if you want to take a run at Norris.

Matz has been up and down this year. While Rhys Hoskins has had a rough month or so, he has homered off of Matz in the past. He and Wilson Ramos are the two Phillies I would really look at tonight.

Miguel Andujar is the only Yankee to homer off of James Paxton so far. I don’t mind taking a shot with Torres or McCutchen either.

Arizona doesn’t hit all that well at home (usually). Eduardo Escobar is the only current Diamondback to homer against Gausman. He looks like the place to go.

I’m not going to advocate a stack against Bundy, but we certainly could. He is a powder keg whenever he takes the mound. The Rays have also hit him well, most notably C.J. Cron, who has three homers and four RBI against Bundy in just 13 at bats. Kiermaier and Mallex Smith are worth a look as well.

Bargain Shoppers:

Kendrys Morales and Russell Martin have the homers off of Carrasco. If you are going to go after him, you don’t have to pay much to do it. I still like Lourdes Gurriel priced this low as well.

I don’t trust Archer with the Pirates. I also don’t trust the Marlins offense. If I use one from this side, it will be Starlin Castro. Castro is 8-23(.348) with a homer and five RBI off of Archer.

To me, Chase Anderson‘s price is too high since he doesn’t have a lot of strikeouts against the Giants. Joe Panik and Gregor Blanco are the only two Giants that have hit him well, and both are pretty cheap.

The sheer volume of Mariner homers against Tanaka has me wanting to take a couple of shots here. Ryon Healy and Seager have both homered twice off of Tanaka. Zunino, Ben Gamel, and Cano have the others.

Heath Fillmyer always seems to put up decent numbers, but he has no upside, even against the Twins. I may take a one-off against him with Sano or Mauer, but there isn’t much to like here from either side.

I’m not really gung-ho about any Braves here, but Adam Duvall could be really sneaky. He has a homer and four RBI against Corbin in just nine at bats, and will only set you back $3,100.

Dan Straily hasn’t been as terrible against the Pirates as most teams. However, Josh Harrison has slugged two homers off of him. I like Harrison as a cheap way to get a little exposure here.

Adam Jones, Joey Rickard, and Trey Mancini have all homered off of Blake Snell. They are all super cheap as well, and for a reason. Snell has been dominant at home.

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