NFL DFS Bargain Bin – Week 1

NFL DFS Bargain Bin– Week 1 All Slates

Welcome to the Week 1 edition of the NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the ledger and touch on where there may be some mis-priced players across Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft in favorable matchups.

Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content:

• The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
• Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
• Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft).  However, there are certainly occasions where one or more site prices a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as a “XYZ site(s) special”.
• The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criteria.

With those housekeeping items out of the way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on the Week 1 slates!

NFL DFS Bargain Bin– Week 1 All Slates Quarterbacks

Andy Dalton, CIN at IND– Yahoo ($25)/ FanDuel ($6,800)/ DraftKings ($5,800)/ FantasyDraft ($11,400)

Dalton seems to frequently be forgotten in DFS circles when it comes time to sort through quarterbacks, but that could be a mistake this week for anyone looking to save some cash at the position. The Red Rifle gets a matchup against a Colts defense that allowed 23 passing touchdowns last season, along with 19.0 DraftKings fantasy points and 17.8 FanDuel fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

He also has his trusted red-zone savvy tight end in Tyler Eifert back and at close to full health by all accounts, along with a high-upside top receiving trio of A.J. Green, John Ross and Tyler Boyd. A backfield duo of Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard should also open up some passing lanes for Dalton, who could be in somewhat of a shootout with Andrew Luck if the game’s rising projected point total (48 as of this writing) is any indication.

Case Keenum, DEN vs. SEA– Yahoo ($25)/ FanDuel ($6,300)/ DraftKings ($5,100)/ FantasyDraft ($10,800)

Keenum made the surprising leap from journeyman backup to front-line starter in Minnesota last season, which earned him a nice payday this offseason from the quarterback-needy Broncos. Keenum has the good fortune of going from one impressive pair of starting receivers to another, as Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders compare favorably to Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen when they have a competent arm under center.

That said, Keenum will also have access to an impressive rookie third receiver in Courtland Sutton, as well as another impressive first-year player behind him in Royce Freeman that should help keep defenses honest. Unlike past seasons, Seattle actually makes for an attractive target too, considering the amount of personnel losses they’ve endured the last few seasons.

There’s no more Richard Sherman, and projected starter Dontae Johnson is now questionable with a hip injury for Sunday after missing practice Thursday. Meanwhile, star safety Earl Thomas has finally reported after a summer-long holdout, but without the benefit of training camp and preseason, it’s anyone’s guess what his level of conditioning will be, especially in Colorado’s thin air.

Joe Flacco, BAL vs. BUF– Yahoo ($21)/ FanDuel ($6,100)/ DraftKings ($4,900)/ FantasyDraft ($10,000)

While clicking Flacco’s name may not send your DFS pulse racing, know that the veteran makes for an viable value option if you need to save some cash at quarterback in Week 1. Flacco actually looked sharper than in seasons past this summer as well, with the fact first-round pick Lamar Jackson was breathing down his neck very likely having something to do with that.

Flacco will face a Bills defense that was actually fairly stingy against quarterbacks last season, but that may have acquired a liability this offseason in Vontae Davis, a former shutdown corner who’s clearly seen better days. The Buffalo offense may not do the defense any favors Sunday, either, considering they could well struggle with Nathan Peterman at quarterback, a very thin receiving corps behind Kelvin Benjamin, and a tough Ravens defense likely applying plenty of pressure against a very questionable offensive line.

Flacco has a solid set of weapons to work with as well, as Michael Crabtree and John Brown form a potentially formidable receiving duo, while Alex Collins, Kenneth Dixon and Javorious Allen give him some very effective pass-catching options out of the backfield that also have more than enough rushing acumen to keep the defense guessing.

NFL DFS Bargain Bin– Week 1 All Slates Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey, CAR vs. DAL- Yahoo ($25)/ FanDuel ($7,500)/ DraftKings ($6,400)/ FantasyDraft ($11,600)

If preseason is any indication, McCaffrey is set for a nice boost in workload this coming season, particularly on the ground. Last season, the then-rookie saw double-digit carries on only three occasions, but the offseason and training camp talk from the Panthers coaching staff has been consistent — that’s set to change in 2018. The addition of Norv Turner as an offensive coordinator certainly lends further credence to that theory, as Turner has demonstrated over his long career that he’ll rely heavily on a talented running back.

The team he did just that most prominently with — albeit over two decades ago — the Cowboys, strolls into town Week 1, setting McCaffrey up in a favorable matchup. Dallas will be hard-pressed to slow down as talented a back as McCaffrey with what could well be a gassed defense by the fourth quarter. After all, the Cowboys offense has the look of a pedestrian unit, and their biggest weapon, Ezekiel Elliott, could spend a great deal of the afternoon frustrated by eight-man fronts while facing a Panthers defense that ranked third last season in rushing yards allowed per contest (88.1).

McCaffrey’s vast pass-catching ceiling can’t be underscored, either, and it’s what helps make his prices across the industry particularly enticing. The Stanford product logged at least five grabs in 10 games last season, a testament to his rapport with Cam Newton and the safe floor he boasts overall. The fact the Cowboys allowed the fourth-most receptions to running backs last season (97) only serves to further McCaffrey’s already formidable case as a value play.

Derrick Henry, TEN at MIA– Yahoo ($21)/ FanDuel ($6,800)/ DraftKings ($5,400)/ FantasyDraft ($10,800)

Henry seems to be perpetually overlooked for a 6-foot-3 back that’s pushing 250 and can run like a player 30-35 pounds lighter. DeMarco Murray is finally out of his hair, but the offseason addition of Dion Lewis and Bill Belichick disciple Mike Vrabel‘s appointment as head coach has some wondering if Vrabel will utilize his backs in the same confounding way that Belichick often does his.

That will play itself out as the regular season unfolds, but in the meantime, Henry looks like a potential steal that appears headed for low ownership in tournaments. The Dolphins lost Ndamukong Suh from a defense that already allowed the sixth-most DraftKings fantasy points (26.5) and FanDuel fantasy points (22.7) to running backs per game last season. They also yielded double-digit touchdowns on the ground (11), and Henry figures to see plenty of goal-line work given his tremendous size and power.

The Titans defense appears to be in a good spot in this game as well (more on that later), which bodes well for Henry’s chances to get plenty of series with which to pay off his very modest prices. And Lewis’ presence could well be one of the best thing to happen to the young back in his first full season as a starter, as it gives him a highly competent veteran backup that can give him enough breathers to keep him fresh for all four quarters.

Royce Freeman, DEN vs. SEA– Yahoo ($17)/ FanDuel ($6,000)/ DraftKings ($4,500)/ FantasyDraft ($9,100)

There was talk for some time this preseason about Devontae Booker opening the season as the starter, but that never seemed to mesh with what was clearly evident on the field during the exhibition slate — namely, that Freeman was the far more productive back. The Oregon product comes off a stellar college career that saw him find the end zone on the ground a whopping 60 times. Freeman may primarily see playing time on early downs almost exclusively in the early part of the season, but his price against a Seahawks defense that’s far removed from its glory days earlier this decade makes him an excellent value in Week 1 just the same.

Seattle already gave up 14 rushing touchdowns last season, and they allowed averages of 22.8 DraftKings points and 19.6 FanDuel points per game to running backs. The Seahawks could also be short-handed on the defensive front, as projected starting tackle Jarran Reed is questionable with a knee injury, further dampening their prospects of slowing Freeman down. Moreover, the fact Denver has an NFL-caliber arm under center again certainly helps the running game’s cause by keeping the defense honest.

*A note about James Conner, PIT– Le’Veon Bell‘s situation remains firmly in flux as of Thursday evening, leaving Conner’s status as a potential value play in limbo to a certain extent. Naturally, if Bell doesn’t suit up Sunday, Conner will be come one of the most popular value plays of the week. I expect him to see a solid amount of value if Bell is unavailable, but I don’t expect the sheer volume Bell typically sees, either. Additionally, while he’d make a very appealing cash game play, be fully cognizant that Conner’s ownership percentages in tournaments would almost surely be extremely elevated.

ALSO CONSIDER:

Tevin Coleman, ATL at PHI (Thurs.)– Yahoo ($13)/ FanDuel ($5,900)/ DraftKings ($4,400)/ FantasyDraft ($9,800)

NFL DFS Bargain Bin– Week 1 All Slates Wide Receivers

JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT at CLE– Yahoo ($26)/ FanDuel ($7,O00)/ DraftKings ($5,900)/ FantasyDraft ($11,300)

Naturally, plenty will flock to Smith-Schuster’s teammate Antonio Brown, particularly if Le’Veon Bell is unavailable. However, Smith-Schuster comes at a very reasonable price relative to his upside, which he flashed frequently during his rookie 2017 campaign. One of those instances was the last memory the Browns have of the speedster, as he sent off 2017 with a nine-catch, 143-yard, one-touchdown effort against them on New Year’s Eve in the regular-season finale.

Cleveland continues to sport an inexperienced secondary, one that’s partly to blame for allowing 28 passing touchdowns last season, half of which went to wide receivers. Those numbers helped lead to averages of 32.4 DraftKings points and 26.0 FanDuel points allowed per game to receivers, numbers that, as previously alluded to, Smith-Schuster had a notable part in.

Brandin Cooks, LAR at OAK- Yahoo ($22)/ FanDuel ($7,000)/ DraftKings ($5,600)/ FantasyDraft ($12,900)

Cooks checks in at a nice price for a prominent offensive piece on a team with a current projected point total of 26 in a game with the third-highest projected total overall. The Rams are just four-point favorites, so the oddsmakers expect the contest to remain competitive, which should require the Rams to keep their foot on the gas.

That could be good news versus a Raiders squad that allowed 14 touchdowns to wide receivers in 2017, along with averages of 31.9 DraftKings points and 25.4 FanDuel points to the position per game. Oakland will roll out the inexperienced but talented Gareon Conley at one corner and a journeyman in Rashaan Melvin on the opposite side, not exactly a prohibitive matchup. Cooks has a penchant for big plays, and the Rams are almost certain to take a few shots downfield during what could turn into a shootout in the debut of Jon Gruden 2.0 in the Bay Area.

Cordarrelle Patterson, NE vs. HOU– Yahoo ($10)/ FanDuel ($4,600)/ DraftKings ($3,500)/ FantasyDraft ($7,000)

There’s been little talk about Patterson leading into Week 1, making him all the more enticing as a value play. The path has been progressively cleared for Patterson to garner significant playing time in the early portion of the season, as New England receiver candidates began dropping like flies almost from the onset of camp — Jordan Matthews hurt his hamstring and was subsequently released, Kenny Britt and Malcolm Mitchell were both handed their walking papers as well, and Eric Decker retired. And naturally, Julian Edelman was already set to miss the first four games of the season due to suspension.

That leaves Patterson as one of the last man standing for the moment, yet all the primary focus in the industry appears to be on Rob Gronkowski, Chris Hogan, and to a certain extent, Phillip Dorsett. Meanwhile, Patterson may be the best-equipped member of the receiving corps to pick up the slack for Edelman in terms of the crossing routes the latter often runs, even as he also has speed to get downfield or gain extra yards after a short catch. Patterson even sees his share of carries each season, although it remains to be seen if Bill Belichick will opt to utilize him in that manner. Nevertheless, given what could be a sizable role on the team with the highest projected total of the week (28.25 as of this writing) and his price, he’s certainly worthy of consideration in tournaments.

NFL DFS Bargain Bin– Week 1 All Slates Tight Ends/Team Defenses

Tight Ends

Jack Doyle, IND vs. CIN– Yahoo ($16)/ FanDuel ($5,600)/ DraftKings ($3,600)/ FantasyDraft ($7,400)

Doyle first came to fantasy prominence in 2016 with Andrew Luck under center, but he was even better last season (80 receptions, 690 yards, four TD) in 2017 with the latter sidelined. Luck is naturally back in the fold and apparently at full health, which could lead to another breakout campaign for the dependable tight end as he enters his sixth season.

Doyle’s price across the industry is very tempting if you’re looking to pay down at the position, and the Bengals aren’t a bad target by any means. Cincinnati allowed 13.0 DraftKings points and 10.2 FanDuel points per game to tight ends last season, and they’ll enter 2018 without the services of linebacker Vontaze Burfict due to his suspension. That should leave Doyle in an even more advantageous position against a team that could force Luck to focus on his tight end more frequently than usual due to its solid pair of corners.

Austin Hooper, ATL at PHI– Yahoo ($12)/ FanDuel ($4,800)/ DraftKings ($2,900)/ FantasyDraft ($6,300)

The kickoff of the 2018 season should certainly have its share of offensive fireworks, but most are expecting that to come from the likes of Julio Jones, the Falcons’ stellar pair of running backs, or  Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz on the other side of the matchup. That leaves Hooper as somewhat of a forgotten man, but one that Atlanta is apparently intent on unleashing this season. The athletic third-year pro took a major leap forward last season with 49 receptions for 526 yards and three touchdowns, and Falcons coaches have talked all offseason about wanting to get him more involved.

For all their success last season, the Eagles were only about middle of the pack against tight ends, yielding 11.4 DraftKings points and 8.9 FanDuel points per game to the position. Hooper has the speed to create plenty of mismatches down the seam, while Atlanta has more than enough firepower in the receiving corps to help keep safeties occupied and Hooper in one-on-one matchups.

Team Defenses

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins– Yahoo ($12)/ FanDuel ($4,200)/ DraftKings ($2,900)/ FantasyDraft ($5,900)

The Ravens should be the most popular defense of the week, but if you’re looking to be a bit contrarian by spending down, the Titans are a unit that not many may be focused on. Tennessee is teed up for a sneaky-good matchup versus a Dolphins offense that will see Ryan Tannehill take his first regular-season snap in approximately 21 months, and that will be missing No. 1 receiver DeVante Parker.

Miami has serviceable options to fill in, with Kenny Stills, Albert Wilson and Danny Amendola set to serve as the top receiving trio Sunday. However, while all are talented, none strike an overabundance of fear in defensive coordinators. The tight end position is also unsettled, with rookie Mike Gesicki‘s impressive measurables not yet translating to the field this preseason. Meanwhile, Tennessee boasts a secondary that could surprise if it plays up to its potential, considering offseason addition Malcolm Butler and his former Patriots teammate Logan Ryan.

The Titans could certainly put enough pressure on Tannehill to make him uncomfortable in his first start back, especially with the potential of somewhat limited mobility due to his still recovering knee.

Yahoo-only Special:

Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco 49ers– $13

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