NFL DFS DraftKings Week 1: QB Ownership Projections

Every week of the NFL season, I will provide you with my projected ownership of each position for the DraftKings main slate. These projections are based on social trends, pricing, injury reports, match-ups and so on. Sources include beat reporters, weather reports, individual team injury reports, Pro Football Reference and FanShare Sports. 

Welcome to the 2018 NFL regular season! More importantly, welcome to the 2018 NFL DFS season…A place where you can make serious cash if you do your research. A major factor in a DFS tournament is the ownership. Riding the public wave and selecting a high owned player can be volatile. Having a highly owned player either nurtures everyone involved or can help eliminate them from the top of the leaderboard.

The best thing that can happen to your lineup is finding a low owned, high reward player who can separate you from the competition. There is no better feeling than seeing your top WR score two touchdowns and noticing he is only owned by 2% of the field.

This season, I will provide you with who I expect to be the highest owned players at each position along with some of the top expected performers with low ownership expectations. I will also provide my picks per position based on the ownership and pricing relationship and isolate a few hidden gems.

"A contrarian is a person that takes up a contrary position, especially a position that is opposed to that of the majority."

Let’s take a look at the projected ownership on this slate!

DRAFTKINGS OWNERSHIP -MAIN SLATE – QUARTERBACK

Highest Ownership Projected

• Philip Rivers (@KC)
• Deshaun Watson (@NE)
• Tom Brady (HOU)
• Andy Dalton (@IND)
• Drew Brees (TB)

Philip Rivers ($6400) faces the Chiefs with their fresh batch of defensive backs and a overall unit that gave up a ton of points to QBs last season. Watson ($6700) returns to the gridiron after tearing his ACL last season. His explosive talent level caught the eyes of many early on in 2017 and will surely attract some DFS players at the beginning of this season.

What else can you say about Tom Brady ($7200)? Looking for vengeance this season, his only deterrent is being the most expensive QB on this slate. Andy Dalton will look to connect again and again to AJ Green and begin to exploit the massive speed of John Ross. Combine that with his price tag ($5800) and his opponent (Colts) and it will certainly explain why he has been the most discussed QB option online this week. The Drew Brees ($6800) and Alvin Kamara stack will be popular during Week 1 based on the abysmal product on the other side (Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bucs).

Trending Players

• Ben Roethlisberger (@CLE)
• Cam Newton (DAL)

Ben Roethlisberger ($6600) and Antonio Brown will have to put in a ton of work this weekend with the expected absence of Le’Veon Bell. Based on the recent news regarding the RB situation, Big Ben has been climbing and should flirt with the Top 5 in ownership.

The Cowboys currently only have a couple of studs on the defensive side of the ball and have an unknown in Dak Prescott in year three. DFS players love a healthy Cam Newton ($6900) early in the season, which should explain the positive trending for Cam heading into week 1.

Low Ownership Expected – Targets

• Patrick Mahomes (@LAC)
• Blake Bortles (@NYG)
• Jimmy Garoppolo (@MIN)

Patrick Mahomes ($6000) is the new guy in KC. After a serviceable 5-year stretch provided by Alex Smith, the Chiefs are ready to try a new approach in how they operate. With a full slew of offensive weapons including newcomer Sammy Watkins, Mahomes is likely to spread the ball around. After going 26 for 36 for 334 yards in the preseason, PM3 is ready to go. I also love the Chiefs/Raiders game for it’s possibility of a shootout.

Blake Bortles ($5600) will be undervalued for the entirety of this season similar to last. All he did was hush his haters by taking the Jaguars to the brink of a super bowl appearance and average 17.1 DK points per game. He is missing Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns and also might be without his new TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins in week one, but we can not ignore the opponent. The Giants were the worst defense against a QB in fantasy metrics last season.

Jimmy Garoppolo ($5700) has never lost a NFL game in his career. That will likely end this season, but you never know. Based on his dual threat skill set and growing relationship with his receiving corps, there is no reason for him not to get into the Top 10 QB discussion. The problem this week is that they face the Vikings, a vicious defensive unit who only allowed 12 TDs from the QB last season. That being said, he tore apart the Jaguars last year for 44 points as well as victories against the Rams and Texans, all considered to be good defensive teams.

My Takeaway

Thanks to a bit of uncertainty heading in to a new season, pricing is often tempered early on. Eleven QBs are between $6000-$7200 which means pricing won’t play a huge factor in ownership. That said, every dollar counts. I’ll be rostering Patrick Mahomes III ($6000) to save a few dollars (to spend on top receivers) and will enjoy Mahomes’ low ownership. Also consider; Blake Bortles, Andy Dalton

Follow me on Twitter @AlexMcKinnonDFS for late breaking ownership news.

Stay tuned for the projected ownership at all of the other positions leading up to kickoff on Sunday!