Predictably, the Pats are favorites on home soil, with Oddsshark tabbing the five-time Super Bowl winners at -6.5. Recent form certainly indicates Brady and Co. should be fancied since they put 36 points on the Texans’ usually formidable D’ in Week 2 last season.
However, those points came with deep threat Brandin Cooks and slot-specialist Danny Amendola catching passes from Brady. Both bolted for pastures new this offseason, with Cooks joining the Los Angeles Rams and Amendola defecting to AFC East rivals the Miami Dolphins.
Now Brady isn’t surrounded by nearly as much talent. It didn’t help experiments to make Jordan Matthews and Kenny Britt his new go-to guys fell flat.
The question marks about Brady’s receivers, as well as Crennel’s ability to frustrate his former coach make the under on the total of 50.5 seem likely.
Even so, the Pats can still run out winners, something they’ve done with alarming regularity against the Texans. New England holds a 9-1 SU record in recent matchups, according to Gilles Gallant of Oddsshark.
He also detailed how the Patriots are “14-6 ATS in the last 20 home games (including playoffs) when favored by 6 or more.”
Those are ominous numbers even if the Texans have the talent to matchup with the best. It will likely take an extra special effort from Watson and the defense to reverse history.