DraftKings CFB Late picks September 8: Arcega-Whiteside could be big against USC
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings CFB Late picks September 8: Arcega-Whiteside could be big against USC
The night slate is a little lighter on DraftKings with ten games going. There are three FCS teams that serve as expensive practice squads for the SEC while there are some other high powered offenses taking the field. Cupcakes may not be the way to go here. What can we come up with?
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Top Tier:
Sam Ehlinger ($10,400): I want no part of McSorely against a decent Pitt defense in a game that they could lose. Ehlinger is still going to have to cede snaps to Buechele, but maybe not until this game gets out of hand. Make no mistake about it. This game WILL get out of hand. Tulsa is probably in the bottom ten. Even Texas can’t blow this one. The offense will be looking for confidence, and nowhere is it more needed than at QB. I expect a healthy dose of both, and honestly, both Texas QB’s could hit 3x value against this defense.
Ty Storey ($9,300): This is another split QB situation, but Storey outperformed Cole Kelley in week 1 by a wide margin. This may be something that evolves game by game, which is less than ideal. However, against this defense, it wont matter who starts. Both QBs are going to put up pretty big numbers in this one.
Drew Lock ($9,000): The thing that has me a little nervous here is that the Wyoming run defense has looked pretty good. Washington State threw all over the field. Lock is capable of that as well, but his running ability is what makes him special. Still, this is a pretty solid price for Lock, and he is easily the top option that is not in a timeshare situation.
Middle Tier:
Jarrett Stidham ($8,900): There is a great chance that Stidham only plays a half against Alabama State. Still, it seems as though his price has been adjusted. He likely wont have a really monster game, but I could still see Stidham getting into the 20’s in DraftKings points before he exits.
Joe Burrow ($8,400): I think Burrow will be left in there a little more than normal in a game like this because he needs the reps. That was apparent against Miami. I would say that Burrow plays around three quarters, which should be plenty long enough for him to put up some strong totals against Southeast Louisiana.
Kellen Mond ($7,100): I think A&M will stay closer than the expert think, and the main reason is because of Mond. He showed more pocket presence in the opener than he did last year before getting hurt. Granted, Mond hasn’t really seen anything like this Clemson defense, but this price is pretty reasonable for the output Mond will have to keep this game close. There is decent potential here.
Bargain Shoppers:
Kenny Pickett ($6,800): Pickett is nothing flashy, but I would say that Jordan Love isn’t really either, and he had a huge game against Penn State. The Penn State defense wasn’t that good last week, so Pickett could have a pretty nice game here. With only 27.2 DraftKings points needed for 4x value, I would say that’s in reach.
Zack Annexstad ($6,300): The true freshman looked good in the opener, but New Mexico State isn’t exactly a formidable defense. Fresno’s is better, but not by a lot. Annexstad isn’t going to win a game by himself anytime soon, but he does a good job stepping out and getting the ball in the air. The main thing was that he didn’t turn the ball over. That’s a pretty big deal. Annexstad isn’t going to win you anything, but he will give you stability.
Top Tier:
Nick Brossette ($8,900): Brossette emerged at the lead back in what was a crowded situation heading into the Miami game. Brossette ran all over the Hurricanes in that one. He promises to see a ton of easy yards against Southeast Louisiana. He isn’t going to have a huge game because he wont play long enough, but it’s likely the Brossette cracks 20 DraftKings points again.
Kam Martin ($8,100): The committee approach in Auburn turned into Martin more than doubling the touches of any other back. Washington did a good job of containing him, but Alabama State wont have any chance of doing that. Perhaps most notably is that Martin also caught five passes. That gives his value a little extra boost, though he wont see a ton of time in this game either.
Middle Tier:
Rodney Smith ($7,500): It looks as though Smith will be the workhorse for the Gophers. They are going to lean on him while Annexstad acclimates himself to the speed of the college game. I see another heavy load for Smith here against a Fresno defense that has struggled to stop the run. Fresno near the bottom in rushing yards allowed last week, and let Idaho top the century mark against them last week.
Trayveon Williams ($6,400): I’m not a fan of the matchup since Clemson has a really good front. However, this is now a run-oriented offense. Williams carried 20 times in the opener for 240 yards. If he gets 20 carries against Clemson, which seems likely, Williams should get very close to 100 yards and should see a touchdown. Williams is a decent play here, but he isn’t going to touch last week’s output.
Bargain Shoppers:
Shamari Brooks ($5,600): With as bad as Texas’ defense looked last week, I have to think that Brooks has a decent chance to put up another 100 yard game. Tulsa’s passing attack is practically non-existent, which hurts Brooks some, but considering the state of the Texas defense, I don’t mind taking a shot with Brooks here.
Keaontay Ingram ($4,500): Ingram looked better than Tre Watson last week, and the coaching staff has already promised that Ingram will see a larger role this week. While that is a vague statement, this Tulsa defense is horrid. Both Watson and Ingram are going to find the going easier, but I much prefer to spend the salary on Ingram, especially since he looked better in the opener. There is a lot of potential to Ingram here.
Jevon Bigelow ($3,000): With Nico Evans likely out this week, Bigelow should get the start. While Missouri has a decent defense, they aren’t great by any means. Wyoming is still looking to take pressure off of their freshman QB, and that starts with Bigelow. There is a ton of potential at minimum price here.
Top Tier:
JJ Arcega-Whiteside ($8,100): San Diego State used their defense to make sure Bryce Love didn’t beat them. It worked. Instead it was Whiteside and his 226 receiving yards on six catches that did the Aztecs in. The Stanford passing game looked better than it did last year. While I think USC will push Costello into enough mistakes that I don’t want to play him, Arcega-Whiteside is still an option for me since he is going to see a ton of targets in this one. If USC keys on Love, which they likely will, another big game could be on tap for JJ.
Emanuel Hall ($7,700): If Wyoming stops Lock from running, this will be their fate. They will get torched by Hall. Hall tore up UT-Martin in week 1 with two long touchdown passes. Washington State was able to take the top off of the Wyoming defense a couple of times. I expect a big game from Hall here.
Tyler Johnson ($7,600): Johnson was targeted 13 times by a team that doesn’t pass much. That speaks volumes as to who is going to get the ball when Minnesota does throw. Fresno’s pass defense isn’t much better than their run defense, so Johnson could have another nice game here.
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Middle Tier:
KeeSean Johnson ($6,900): Fresno has been a pass heavy team for a few years now with McMaryion and KeeSean putting up big numbers. Minnesota has a good defense, so I’m not that high on McMaryion, but Johnson could still have a strong game as the favorite target of McMaryion.
Olabisi Johnson ($6,300): Despite a tough game as a whole for Colorado State last week, Johnson reaffirmed himself as the favorite target of Carta-Samuels. Johnson has three touchdowns in two games, and is a strong candidate to find the end zone again against an Arkansas defense that struggled last week.
KJ Hamler ($6,000): Hamler led Penn State in receiving yardage last week, and picked up a touchdown. The slot is where DaeSean Hamilton did his damage last year. It still looks as though McSorely is looking there for production this season as well. I would say that gives Hamler a little more upside. The price just confirms it.
Bargain Shoppers:
La’Michael Pettway ($5,600): Pettway was the better receiver for Arkansas last week, hauling in five passes for 93 yards and two touchdowns. Colorado State’s defense has not been very good in either game, so there is a whole lot of potential for Pettway here. Maybe more than any other Arkansas player.
Rafael Araujo-Lopez ($5,200): Pitt didn’t throw much against Albany. They didn’t have to. However, if they want to hang with Penn State, they are going to have to go to the air. That’s what Appalachian State did. Araujo-Lopes is the clear number one for Pitt and should be heavily targeted in this game. That alone makes him worth this price.
Jordan Jones ($4,500): Jones is the big play threat to Pettway’s possession skills. Colorado State has been burned deep at least a dozen times in two games. Jones has topped 100 yards in each of his last two games including last year. A third looks likely, and the price is right.
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