Fantasy Football 2018: Running Back Red Zone Opportunities

Fantasy Football 2018:  Running Back Red Zone Opportunities

Before we dive in to the data and dissect which fantasy football RB’s and offenses we can trust in the red zone.  Allow me to set the scene.

Location:  Your living room, a snowy, Sunday, December night.  You: On the couch, straight chillin’. 

Your go-to joggers bunch up around your ankles revealing a fresh out of the pack, first time on feet pair of socks.  Your torso is perpetually hugged by that one shirt you’ve had for like 5 years that somehow never shrunk, stained or got lost at the laundromat.

Remote to your right, laptop to your left, TV in front you take a look around your dimly lit, temperature controlled sanctuary.  You direct your eyes downward toward your laptop.  Displayed is your league’s scoreboard.  Your eyes look back up again, admiring the football utopia you’ve forged.  Comfort Level: EXPERT has been obtained!

It’s NFL Week 14 aka Week 1 of the fantasy playoffs, down by 3 with your Le’Veon Bell vs his Alex Collins you feel confident.

Bonus:  The snow has provided excellent ground coverage.  There is no chance you will need to leave your house.  The perfect storm outside has provided you the opportunity to watch a perfect storm inside.  Hurricane Le’Veon and the Steelers red zone offense are about to touchdown on the Baltimore Raven defense.

Fantasy Football 2018:  Running Back Red Zone Opportunities

The reason I bring up last year’s week 14 Baltimore at Pittsburgh match up is because the game showcased the ups and downs that we go through as fantasy team owners.  This was week 1 of the playoffs, a big game here is the difference between playing the next week or not needing to set your lineup untill the next season.  If you started Bell, you loved the outcome.  40 points in PPR leagues.  3 touchdowns, all in the red zone. 

If you started Collins and were lucky enough to not watch the game then you were pleased with what A.C. did for your squad.  25 PPR points, 120 on the ground, 46 in the air and a touchdown.  Collins balled out.  Can’t be mad at that.

As a Collins owner, If you watched the game then you couldn’t help but be frustrated.  Anti-Harbaugh sentiments and bittersweet thoughts of what if  rattling around your head Monday.  What if  Collins, who had his best game all season doesn’t get pulled 3 feet from pay dirt.  What if Buck Allen doesn’t spell Collins inside the ten for a 2nd time and score his 2nd touchdown in as many red zone carries.  Truth is we will never know but we sure can speculate.

I like to imagine somewhere T.J. Duckett, the TD vulture G.O.A.T., cracked a smile when he saw Javorius Allen’s vulture game in full effect.  Touchdown  vulturing is alive and well in 2018 my friends.  A few guys besides Allen  that come to mind as vulture candidates are Latavius Murray in Minnesota , LeGarrette Blount in Detroit, Frank Gore in Miami and Alfred Morris in San Fran. (if Breida becomes the feature back)

The key is to avoid these situations at all cost.  Lets take a look at which RB’s are the most reliable the red zone.

Fantasy Football 2018:  Running Back Red Zone Opportunities

Most carries inside the Red Zone since 2016. (25 game minimum)

1. LaGarette Blount: 116
2. Melvin Gordon: 112
3. Le’Veon Bell: 111
4. Todd Gurley: 108
5. Devonta Freeman: 95
6. Latavius Murray: 90
7. Carlos Hyde: 85
8. Mark Ingram: 83
9. Ezekial Elliot: 82
10. LeSean McCoy: 79

• LeGarette Blount has been in the NFL 8 years.  Only 3 times has he accumulated 175 carries or more in a season.  There is a lot more tread on his tires than he is being given credit for.  He is listed as the RB1 on Detroit’s depth chart.  According to ESPN he’s owned in just 28% of leagues.
• 12 touchdowns in back to back season for “Mr. Consistency”, Melvin Gordon.
• Who knows if there will be a Le’Veon Bell sighting this season.  If you own James Conner, Bell’s 111 red zone carries since 2016 is a very intriguing prospect.
• Todd Gurley’s 38 carries inside the 10 yard line and 24 carries inside the 5 were tops among all RB’s in 2017.
• Devonta Freeman is the only player in the NFL to carry the ball 15+ times inside the 5 yard line in back to back seasons.
• Latavius Murray’s 20 touchdowns since 2016 makes a good argument for him taking goal line touches away from Dalvin Cook.
• Carlos Hyde’s red zone touches rose by 22% from 2016 to 2017 under Kyle Shanahan.  The 49ers like to run in the red zone.  Keep an eye on Alfred Morris, his always falling forward running style translates well near the goal line.
• Mark Ingram and teammate Alvin Kamara combined for 86 red zone carries in 2017.  The Saints show all the tell-tale signs of a running team.  If you have a chance to trade with an impatient owner for Ingram before week 4, do it.  The earlier the cheaper.
• Zeke Elliot made the top 10 with only 25 games under his belt.  Not only does he get all the red zone carries, he gets all the carries everywhere on the field.  Zeke has averaged 20+ carries per game in the 25 he’s played.
• If Shady McCoy can avoid suspension he’s gonna get a ton of volume like he has every year he’s played in Buffalo.  If he does get suspended, Marcus Murphy is going to generate a lot of buzz in the fantasy world.
• Christian McCaffrey had 28 red zone carries in 2017.  Former teammate, current Giant, Jonathan Stewart lead the team last season with 31 carries inside the 20 and has averaged 35.5 red zone carries per year since 2016.  McCaffrey will inevitably eat up some of those carries.  Don’t be surprised when C.J. Anderson plays a  larger goal line role than projected.  I can see Cam Newton, the league’s most effective goal line rushing QB, have his number called a little more than usual inside the 5 in 2018.

Most Targets/ Catches/ Touchdowns Inside the Red Zone since 2016:

1. Bell: 25 targets / 16 catches / 3 TD’s
2. Ingram: 24 targets / 21 catches / 3 TD’s
3. McCoy: 22 targets / 15 catches / 3 TD’s
4. Gurley: 20 targets / 13 catches /4 TD’s
5. Gordon: 18 targets / 13 catches / 6 TD’s
6. *Kamara: 17 targets / 14 catches / 4 TD’s
7. Hyde: 17 targets / 14 catches / 3 TD’s
8. Riddick: 15 targets / 12 catches / 5 TD’s
9. *D. Johnson: 14 targets / 8 catches / 3 TD’s
10. *McCaffrey: 13 targets / 11 catches / 4 TD’s

*Denotes 16 games or less.

• Le’Veon Bell’s 25 red zone targets since 2016 lead all RB’s.  Backup RB James Conner is not known for his pass catching.  Look for rookie RB/ H-Back Jaylen Samuels, who has great hands and sneaky speed for his 5’11” 225 pound frame to pick up some slack along with the rest of the offensive skill players.
• Le’Veon Bell’s 127 total red zone touches since 2016 is best in the league over that span, Conner owners, its OK to crack a smile.
• Mark Ingram’s 21 catches inside the 20 yard line lead all RB’s over the last 2 seasons.  Add that to his 83 carries and Ingram has had the ball in his hands 104 times in the red zone since 2016.
• Mark Ingram’s 88% catch rate leads all RB’s with at least 13 targets since 2016.
• Melvin Gordon’s 6 red zone receiving touchdowns is the best in the league since 2016.  Exactly a quarter of his total touchdowns over that span have come through the air inside the 20.
• Alvin Kamara lead all rookies last year in red zone targets and catches with 17 and 14 respectively.  He had 41 red zone rushes and 14 red zone catches combining for 55 red zone attempts.  A number that far exceeded all rookie RB totals in 2017.
• Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara lead all rookies with 4 receiving TD’s in the red zone.

Fantasy Football 2018:  Running Back Red Zone Opportunities

Average Rushing Attempts per Game Since 2015: (APG)

1. Bills: 31.3
2. Panthers: 30.3
3. Cowboys: 29
4. Eagles: 28.3
5. Vikings: 28
6. Seahawks: 27.3
7. Jaguars: 26.7
8. Patriots / Titans: 26.6

• The Buffalo Bills are the only team to average 30+ rushing APG since 2015.  If LeSean McCoy is suspended the Bills RB2, fantasy unknown Marcus Murphy, owned in just 0.4% of ESPN leagues, will get a large bump in carries.  He’s a great stash candidate.
• Tyrod Taylor was a big reason Buffalo’s APG was as high as it has been since 2015, now that he’s a Cleveland Brown their APG will drop but should still hang around the top 5 in the league.
• Since Zeke Elliot was drafted by the Dallas Cowboys in 2016 the team has averaged 30+ APG.  Only the Buffalo Bills have averaged more APG since 2016.
• The Philadelphia Eagles opened 2018 with 27 rushing attempts, just over 1 yard less than their average APG since 2015.
• In Leonard Fournette‘s rookie season the Jacksonville Jaguars lead the NFL with 33 APG.  He’s going to get a heavy workload in 2018.
• If Fournette gets banged up, keep an eye on Corey Grant, owned in less than 1% of ESPN leagues, to supplant T.J. Yeldon, owned in just 8% of ESPN leagues, as the team’s main running option.  Yeldon will likely maintain his role as the change of pace/ 3rd down/ pass catching back.
• Fantasy owners are showing a lot of faith in Fournette’s health.  He’s had imjuries in the past and played just 13 games his rookie season, judging by the availability of Yeldon and Grant.  Both players make great stash candidates on the end of your bench.

The more carries a team gives its RB’s the higher chance they have at scoring.  These team’s are good to keep in mind when streaming defenses since their commitment to the run keeps their defenses off the field more than most teams.

% of Offensive Plays That Were Runs in 2017 (45%+)

1. Jaguars: 49.49%
2. Bills: 47.88%
3. Cowboys: 47.76%
4. Panthers: 47.04%
5. Vikings: 45.93%
6. Colts: 45.37%
7. Bears: 45.18%

• The Jags lead the league in 2017 with 141 rushing yards per game.
• The Jags, Bills and Cowboys lead the NFL in 2017 with 47%+ of all their offenses plays being runs.  Backups Corey Grant, T.J. Yeldon, Marcus Murphy and Rod Smith are all less than 8% owned in ESPN leagues.
• The Vikings’ 45%+ run percentage bodes well for Dalvin Cook who carried the ball 19 times per game for 354 yards and 2 TD’s in the 3 and a half games he played in 2017.   Cook averaged 4.8 yards per carry and had two games with 22+ carries.
• The Colts ran on 45%+ of their offensive plays in 2017, a number I see decreasing due to the question marks surrounding RB’s Marlon Mack, Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines.  The return of Andrew Luck will also translate to more passing, less running plays in 2018.

Average Rushing Yards Per Game (minimum 115 YPG)

2017

1. Jaguars:141
2. Cowboys: 136
3. Eagles: 131
4. Panthers: 130
5. Bills: 126
6. Saints: 122
7. Rams: 121

2016

1. Bills: 164
2. Cowboys: 149
3. Titans:137
4. 49ers: 126
5. Falcons: 118
6. Raiders: 117
7. Texans: 116

• Buffalo is the only team to finish top 5 in average rushing YPG 3 seasons in a row.  The Bills have averaged 147 YPG since 2015.
• The Jaguars led the league in rushing YPG in 2017.  Rookie Leonard Fournette led the team to their highest total since 2011 when they finished 11th in the league.
• Since drafting Ezekial Elliot in 2016 the Cowboys have averaged 142.5 YPG and finished 2nd in the league in rushing YPG both seasons.
• All Saints 122 YPG came from Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara.  With Ingram suspended  for 4 games, Mike Gillislee joins Kamara as the only other Saint halfback.  Gillislee is available in 93% of leagues according to ESPN.

These red zone and team rushing stats are very telling.  They reassure what we thought about the top RB’s in the game.  Gurley, Bell and Zeke get a lot of chances to succeed and will continue to get those chances…unless they’re holding out.  Melvin Gordon, LeSean McCoy and Mark Ingram are very consistent year in year out…unless they’re suspended.

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Last year’s rookie RB class was special.  Leonard Fournette, Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey had plenty of opportunities to score fantasy points in 2017.  All 3 have the same or better opportunity this year.  Kareem Hunt‘s name didn’t come up at all so far but it’s worth noting that he finished 2nd in the league in rushing yards behind Todd Gurley.

LeGarrette Blount is a red zone battering ram.  I know it’s the Lions and they haven’t produced a 1000 yard back since Reggie Bush ran for 6 yards over 1000 in 2013.  A total that ended an 8 year drought since Kevin Jones broke 1000 in 2004.  I’m not suggesting Blount will run for 1k. I am suggesting he can get you 750-825 yards and 8-10 touchdowns.  750 and 8 would have made Blount last year’s RB27 just outside RB2 status.  750 and 10 would’ve been good enough to be the RB23 in 2017, barely an RB2 but an RB2 none the less.  He’s available in 70% of leagues according to ESPN.  I grabbed him in a few leagues as I was writing this article.

James Conner in Pittsburgh is the backup RB with the most buzz heading into 2018, if you don’t own him by now, unless you trade for him you won’t.  As for the other top RB’s most of their backups are available on your league’s waiver wire.

When everyone else in your leagues are rostering a second defense, tight end, quarterback or for a reason I can never fathom, a kicker, take a chance at Marcus Murphy, Corey Grant, TJ Yeldon, or a Rod Smith type.  Every year a back up RB jumps out of nowhere and becomes fantasy relevant.  These guys have as good of a chance as anyone.  Thanks for reading.

Look out for my next article on 9/9/18, Corey Clement: The League’s Best Handcuff.