MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Saturday, September 8
Welcome to the Saturday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Talk about a high scoring night in MLB DFS – we had 13 players score 25 or more fantasy points as starting pitching dominated the night with 6 of the top 10 raw point plays coming from the arms with Masahiro Tanaka leading the way with a dominant 40+ point outing with 10K’s over 8 innings against the Seattle Mariners.
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Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Early Slate Pitching Overview:
We get a nice even split slate today for MLB DFS with 6 games on the early 4PM EST slate and another 8 games on the 7PM Main Slate which gives us two chances to build some added bankroll ahead of Week 1 NFL DFS on Sunday.
One thing to note – the Padres/Reds game looks like a total washout on this slate so my going in position is this is a five game slate – sorry Matt Harvey, I may have actually used you today.
Jack Flaherty ($21.4K) feels like a must spend within the context of this slate against the Tigers as his K rate (30.6%) and swinging strike rate (13.4%) are the top marks of any arm available with the “next best” options in Eduardo Rodriguez and Charlie Morton having to face the Astros/Red Sox offenses respectively, paying up for Flaherty against the Tigers feels like the path of least resistance.
Flaherty has dominated right-handed batters this season with a 33% K rate and will take on a predominately right-handed Tigers line-up (likely 5-6 RHB) that has a near 23% K rate against RHP this season. The Tigers have the lowest run total on the slate and Flaherty is the highest upside arm – this is stop 1 for cash games and a scary GPP fade. I think you just lock him in and move on.
It is unfortunate the Reds/Padres look unlikely to play because Robbie Erlin and Matt Harvey would have actually been SP2 options we could use – frankly the rest of the plays are ugly.
Adam Plutko ($14K) looks like my favorite SP2 play on this slate due to his significant splits but keep an eye on this Toronto line-up as we need it to be right-handed heavy in order for this play to work. Plutko has a mediocre 12% K rate against LHB this season with over a 3 HR/9 rate however against RHB the K rate spikes to 26.3% while his HR rate drops in half. The projected Blue Jays line-up has only three left-handed batters in it (McKinney, Smoak, Morales) which if that holds is exactly what we would want to see if we plan on using Plutko in this spot today.
Plutko faced this Toronto team back in May, pitching 7.1 innings with 6 K’s and giving up 3 ER on his way to 22 FP’s – a total I would sign up for right now at only $14K from my SP2. Plutko also gets the benefit of having Angel Hernandez behind the plate today – one of the most extreme pitcher’s umpires in baseball so assuming this Jays line-up stays right-handed heavy, I will be all over him on two pitcher sites.
MLB DFS – Early Slate Hitting:
The Oakland A’s have a 5+ run total, the highest on the early slate, so that alone will likely lead them to being pretty high owned against LHP Yohander Mendez. Mendez has made two starts at the big league level this year – giving up 6 ER in only 3 innings at home versus the Rockies before a solid 6 inning, 2 K shut-out against the Twins last time out. There is nothing in Mendez’s minor league profile that jumps out – a 19% K rate and near 10% walk rate at AAA this season with a 2 HR/9 rate tells me this a pitcher I want to pick on rather than actually use.
To be honest – FantasyDraft made the pricing on this Oakland stack way too cheap – which will also likely lead to increased ownership – as there is not a single bat in this line-up over $8.3K today. Khris Davis ($8.3K) is the most expensive bat but frankly he feels about $1K too cheap considering his .239 ISO mark against LHP this season and 46.2% HC rate. Stephen Piscotty has a .200+ ISO mark of his own and if Ramon Laureano is back in the lead-off spot tonight after his 2 HR night on Friday, he makes for an easy plug and play at the top of this stack.
On a short slate like this (likely only 5 games), one of my favorite ways to be “different” when you have an obvious stack like the A’s is to go all-in and stack up the allowable 6 batters on FantasyDraft instead of a more traditional 3-4 man stack.
If you opt to go this route then you simply need to pick a few one-offs and with Oakland being so cheap – why not take the best one-off on the board in Francisco Lindor ($10.3K) against a pitcher in Sean Reid-Foley who is giving up 40% HC and .200+ ISO marks to hitters from both sides of the plate.
Lastly, Jake Bauers ($6.5K) is one of my favorite home run value bats against RHP David Hess as Bauers is sporting a .191 ISO and 45% HC rate against RHP this season. Hess relies on a low 90’s fastball over 60% of the time against LHB this season, giving up a .212 ISO on that pitch and Bauers has a .238 ISO of his own against that pitch type and velocity in 2018.
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
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SP: Jack Flaherty ($21.4K)
SP: Adam Plutko ($14K)
IF: Jed Lowrie ($8.2K)
IF: Matt Chapman ($8K)
IF: Francisco Lindor ($10.3K)
OF: Khris Davis ($8.3K)
OF: Stephen Piscotty ($8.3K)
OF: Ramon Laureano ($7.7K)
UTIL: Matt Olson ($7.7K)
UTIL: Jake Bauers ($6.5K)
Slate Overview – With weather looking to make this a five game slate, the breakdown for me is simple – lock in Jack Flaherty and fit in 6 Oakland bats once we get line-up confirmation. The only real “wait and see” item for me is how Toronto lines up as we want as many RHB as possible for Toronto today due to the extreme K splits for Plutko this season – enjoy the early slate and let’s get ready for the Main Slate.
MLB DFS – Main Slate Pitching:
It looks like at first glance that we have no real weather issues to worry about but it is interesting that we basically are past all the hot weather across the US which means the stadiums that had been playing as hitters parks could now be pivoting towards the pitchers as we head into the last few weeks of baseball.
The first thing that jumped off the page to me on this Main Slate was how many high K arms we have available to us with Max Scherzer in a league of his own, but arms like Noah Syndergaard, Jose Berrios and Walker Buehler all taking the hill as well.
Jose Berrios ($15.1K) was the arm that jumped out to me the most though as the combination of price and match-up against the Royals, feels like too good of a spot to pass on. By now you all know my love for Berrios when the spot is right – and that is usually at home – where he has an ERA and xFIP a run and a half lower than on the road and he sees his K rate spike to 27.8% as opposed to only 20% on the road.
Berrios has started two games against the Royals this year – going 7 innings in each game, over 100 pitches both times with 7K’s per game and racking up 23 and 30 fantasy points in those starts – both of which were at home – in the exact same match-up he has today. Lock button.
So far this season, Noah Syndergaard ($19.4K) has been a bit underwhelming but he flashed his Thor upside last start in San Francisco where he struck out 11 batters in 9 innings against a weak Giants line-up. One thing that stands out to me in the recent trends with Syndergaard is how much uptick he is getting on his fastball – consider in his first 17 starts, his average velocity was “only” 97.4 MPH but in the last three starts, that has jumped to 98.2 MPH which is a massive jump but more importantly, it is back in line with his 2017 and 2016 numbers.
The Phillies have some thump, but they also have strikeouts in this line-up and with cool temperatures and the wind blowing in at Citi Field tonight, this could be a prime spot for another vintage Thor performance at a reduced price point.
MLB DFS – Main Slate Hitting:
We have another night in Coors Field with some strong pitchers going in Walker Buehler and Kyle Freeland and as a result I am finding myself looking for pivot options from Coors on an 8 game slate. The Milwaukee Brewers have a 5 run total at home, tied for the second highest run total on the slate and only slightly behind the Dodgers, but ahead of the Rockies bats which means this could be a great spot to get a high upside stack at lower ownership if folks blindly flock to Coors.
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The match-up with Chris Stratton is one I want to attack as Stratton gives up a ton of hard contact (42% on the year) and has low K numbers (17%) so you know the Brewers bats are going to put the ball in play which sets up perfectly for an all-in stack.
The middle of this Milwaukee order is a wrecking crew against RHP as Christian Yelich, Jesus Aguilar, Travis Shaw and Mike Moustakas all have .240 or higher ISO marks against RHP on the season, all with 40% or higher hard contact rates.
If you look at Stratton’s numbers on the road in hitter friendly ballparks – you are going to see some crooked numbers – as he gave up 6 ER’s in 3 IP in Arizona and 8 ER in 5.2 IP in Coors the start before that on the road. Miller Park ranks as the best park for LHP on the slate, ahead of parks like Coors and Chase Field, so when you consider the struggles Stratton had in those parks, it is not hard to connect the dots that this could be a ceiling spot for the Milwaukee offense tonight.
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
More from FanSided
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- Cardinals Rumors: Surprise extension, Dylan Carlson-Yankees link, Rays trade idea
- USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
- NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
- Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
SP: Noah Syndergaard ($19.4K)
SP: Jose Berrios ($15.1K)
IF: Travis Shaw ($8.2K)
IF: Mike Moustakas ($8.1K)
IF: Jesus Aguilar ($9K)
OF: Christian Yelich ($11.4K)
OF: Ryan Braun ($7.2K)
OF: Lorenzo Cain ($9.3K)
UTIL: Victor Robles ($5.5K)
UTIL: Greg Bird ($6.8K)
Slate Overview: Much like the early slate, I am going to build around K’s with the arms and plant my flag with one stack of a high upside offense like the Brewers. My hope is on a Coors slate, the ownership will be reduced on the Brew Crew, especially on someone like Yelich at over $11k – most people are going to spend up on Coors at that price point would be my guess. Let’s hope also that the Nationals FINALLY give Victor Robles a start – the kid is a superstar prospect, your season is over and you are having him sit on the bench – it is a R/L match-up and he is $5.5K – PLAY THE MAN PLEASE. Enjoy today’s MLB action – dive into some College Football DFS – and get ready for Week 1 in the NFL on Sunday.
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