NFL DFS DraftKings Week 1: RB Ownership Projections

Every week of the NFL season, I will provide you with my projected ownership of each position for the DraftKings main slate. These projections are based on social trends, pricing, injury reports, match-ups and so on. Sources include beat reporters, weather reports, individual team injury reports, Pro Football Reference and FanShare Sports.

Welcome to the 2018 NFL regular season! More importantly, welcome to the 2018 NFL DFS DraftKings season…A place where you can make serious cash if you do your research. A major factor in a DFS tournament is the ownership. Riding the public wave and selecting a high owned player can be volatile. Having a highly owned player either nurtures everyone involved or can help eliminate them from the top of the leaderboard.

The best thing that can happen to your lineup is finding a low owned, high reward player who can separate you from the competition. There is no better feeling than seeing your top WR score two touchdowns and noticing he is only owned by 2% of the field.

This season, I will provide you with who I expect to be the highest owned players at each position along with some of the top expected performers with low ownership expectations. I will also provide my picks per position based on the ownership and pricing relationship and isolate a few hidden gems.

"A contrarian is a person that takes up a contrary position, especially a position that is opposed to that of the majority."

Let’s take a look at the projected ownership for Running Backs on this slate!

DraftKings Highest Ownership Projected

• Top Tier: Alvin Kamara, Melvin Gordon and Rex Burkhead

• Middle Tier: James Connor, David Johnson, Kenyan Drake and Christian McCaffrey

• Lower Tier: Alex Collins, Ezekiel Elliot, Leonard Fournette, Royce Freeman, LeSean McCoy

DraftKings Top Tier (20% ownership or more)

Alvin Kamara ($8500) returns this season after a terrifying rookie campaign where he became the first rookie to post 700 yards rushing and 700 yards receiving since 1964. He is a much bigger threat out of the backfield, but without the suspended Mark Ingram to share carries with, he should see a heavy amount of workload week 1. It also doesn’t hurt that they are facing a depleted team in the Buccaneers.

Melvin Gordon ($6800) is simply too cheap for people to avoid this week. He will be the chalk play in a high scoring affair between the Chiefs and Chargers. Rex Burkhead ($4200) is likely to get the bulk of the touches in New England with his price tag driving up the ownership %.

DraftKings Middle Tier (10-20% ownership)

James Connor ($4500) will be the premiere back for Pittsburgh on Sunday vs. Cleveland. The absence of Le’Veon Bell gives Connor a chance to play at full capacity. He will cede most third down snaps to rookie Jaylen Samuels, but he is a super cheap #1 back for the week. Expect his ownership to climb as we get closer to kick off.

Kenyan Drake ($5900) and Christian McCaffrey ($6400) are both pass catching backs who are bulked into that $5500-$6500 price range for RBs. They each have backups who will eat a few runs but these two will see plenty of green all afternoon.

David Johnson ($8800) returns to the field a year after his season-ending wrist injury. Thankfully, the production after a wrist injury are much more predictable than a ligament tear. This team lives and breathes on the back of David Johnson and Sam Bradford will feed him all day. His price tag is high but he will fill a lot of lineups who don’t have to choose between DJ and Le’Veon.

DraftKings Lower Tier (Flirting with 10% ownersip)

Ezekiel Elliott ($7700) and LeSean McCoy ($6000) are former perennial DFS locks. As you can see, they are not receiving the same expectations heading into week 1

Due to his off the field issues and really depleted expectation for the product on the field for the Bills, McCoy will be yours for the taking around 10% or less. He will be the entire Bills offense as long as Peterman avoids throwing double digit interceptions. Elliott is cheaper than he was at any point last season, so it’s now or never at that price and ownership.

Leonard Fournette ($7100) and the Jaguars take on a bottom-10 defense from last season in the New York Giants. TJ Yeldon will be involved, but the slimmed down Fournette will have a field day with the New York defense. His price tag is his only deterrent and I believe most will pay down to Melvin Gordon for $300 less.

Alex Collins ($5600) is locked in as the number one back in Baltimore and is one of my favorite plays of the weekend. He and Royce Freeman ($4500) are starting on Sunday and are getting some attention but they likely will not crack the 10% ownership level.

Trending Running Backs

• Adrian Peterson
• Jeremy Hill

Adrian Peterson ($4700) was announced the starter for the Redskins on Week 1 after Daniel Guice went down in the Preseason. His price is low and his competition is minimal in Chris Thompson so I expect his ownership to climb as we head into Sunday. The Cardinals, however, should be expected to load the box and force Alex Smith to pass the ball. Combine that with the lackluster effort by Peterson in New Orleans last season has me likely to fade an all-time great.

Jeremy Hill ($3300) enters his first game as a Patriot in what has been a consistent shuffle of serviceable backs. The Patriots always provide a decent running game week in and week out but it is impossible to predict who will be the workhorse. With the 1st Round draft pick Sony Michel being out for the week, Rex Burkhead becomes the inevitable starter. However, Jeremy Hill has been an assassin from within 5 yards of the goal-line. In his career, he has 15 touchdowns on 33 attempts. Additionally, take a look at career rushing TDs among current Patriots

At Hill’s price tag and with his affinity to punch the ball in when deep in the red zone, it’s hard not to understand why he is trending upwards towards Sunday’s matchup.

Let’s take a look at the low-ownership targets for Week 1!

DraftKings Targets with Low-Ownership Projected (7% or less)

• Saquon Barkley

• Dalvin Cook

• Kareem Hunt

• Derrick Henry or Dion Lewis

• Mike Gillislee 

Saquon Barkley ($6700) heads into Week 1 as one of the most anticipated rookies in recent memory. His thighs and pure strength have been a topic of conversation for months and now it is time to put it to the test. Unfortunately, Barkley runs in to a bit of a monster on Week 1 with the Giants hosting the Jaguars stout defense.

However, I believe some DFS players are hyping the Jaguars run defense more than it should be. They were far and away the #1 pass defense last season but only ranked 21st in rushing yards allowed. On average, they were allowing opposing running backs to run for 4.3 yards per rush as opposed to the Eagles #1 rush defense at 3.8 YPC.

Barkley will also be effected by the Melvin Gordon crowd this week being on $100 less then Melvin. Many DFS players will also go down $300 and play McCaffrey as well. This will allow for Barkley fans to roster him around 5% on Week 1. Sounds pretty good to me.

Dalvin Cook ($6200) returns to the NFL after tearing his ACL in Week 4 vs. the Lions last year. Prior to his devastating departure, Cook was lacing opponents for 4.8 YPC on 74 attempts and also added 11 catches. He was phenomenal. Clearly, his injury will scare off many heading into Week 1 where he still isn’t cheap. He is also playing just days after he learned about the death of his Uncle, who he considered to be one of his best friends. This will be a risky play but that’s what you have to do to stand out in these gigantic GPPs.

Kareem Hunt ($6900) started his rookie campaign ablaze last season with incomprehensible statistics in his first 6 games (630 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs, 255 receiving yards, 2 receiving TDs). After that, he struggled to approach 100 combined yards only achieving that once in the following 6 games. He did however end the season with a few massive performances leaving football fans perplexed as to what they should expect come year two.

It may be another rocky year for Hunt, but he sure did show up early in the season last year when he was fresh. Week 1’s battle between the Chiefs and the Chargers should be a shootout and I don’t see why Kareem wouldn’t be a big part of the action.

Derrick Henry ($5400) and Dion Lewis ($4900) are the new dynamic duo in the Titans backfield. They couldn’t be built any different, look at the size difference!

…and the DFS general public has no idea what to do with them. It is hard to predict the game flow of a Titans vs. Dolphins game in September. The game flow will completely dictate who has the better day and even at that point, will it be good enough to be a value play? With the high TD upside, I would lean Derrick Henry in this spot but you can grab either guy for 5% or less this week until we figure out more about the Titans game plan.

There are only two running backs on the Saints roster for this weekend. Alvin Kamara and Mike Gillislee ($3400). Of course Kamara will be the centerpiece to the Saints offense this weekend but SOMEONE has to relieve him every once in a while. Gillislee, similar to Jeremy Hill, has a strong presence within 5 yards of the goal line. He has scored 12 TDs on 18 attempts within that distance in his career. Definitely might be worth a flier if you are interested in fading Kamara.

My DraftKings Takeaway

Without Le’Veon Bell at the top this week, ownership and player selection will be unlike any other. Many will flock to the top still with David Johnson and Alvin Kamara because it will still allow them to take a second RB in the $6000 range. Out of those projected to be 10% owned or more, it will be hard to fade Alvin Kamara with his opportunity this week vs. the Bucs with no Mark Ingram at his side. I also REALLY like Christian McCaffrey and Alex Collins in that 10%+ range.

I plan on pairing a highly owned running back (like Kamara, McCaffrey or Collins) with a lower owned guy, primarily Dalvin Cook. Cook was just too explosive last year and was injured early enough that his ACL should be fine at this point.

Follow me on Twitter @AlexMcKinnonDFS for late breaking ownership news.

Stay tuned for the projected ownership at all of the other positions leading up to kickoff on Sunday!