MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Monday, September 10th All Slates

MLB DFS Bargain Bin– Monday, Sept. 10th All Slates

Welcome to a Monday edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the ledger and touch on where the weakest pitching spots might be, and by extension, where there may be some value bats to consider. Additionally, I’ll look to identify where a value arm or two might be intersecting with an offense that’s running cold or is otherwise inefficient against a certain handedness.

Before we go MLB DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content:

• The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
• Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
• In this DFS MLB Bargain Bin Quick Hits version, I’ll suggest players that are typically value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft). Naturally, check final pricing before making your lineup decisions, as I am not listing salaries in this edition.
• This is not a position-by-position breakdown, but rather, I’m just identifying games where I think there’s value players in potentially favorable fantasy spots.
• The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.

With those housekeeping items out of the way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on Monday’s slates!

MLB DFS Bargain Bin– Monday, Sept. 10th Bargain Pitcher

Mike Minor, TEX at LAA

Minor has been of the pleasant surprises for the Rangers this season, equaling his second-highest number of wins (11) in his career while posting a solid 1.10 WHIP and often proving adept at mastering the pitching-adverse conditions of Globe Life Park. Interestingly, his overall numbers haven’t been as impressive on the road (where his Monday start unfolds), but he still boasts a winning record (5-4) away from his home park and draws an appealing matchup against the southpaw-challenged Angels.

Los Angeles has struggled in its home park against left-handers throughout the season, and they’ve been particularly ineffective in the second half of the campaign. The Angels own a .259 OBA, 66 wRC+, -13.0 wRAA, .202 average and 24.7 percent strikeout rate over 287 home plate appearances versus left-handers at Angel Stadium since the All-Star break, generating an anemic .126 ISO in the process. The projected starting lineup Monday sports a 21.2 percent whiff rate against lefties, as well, even with the potent trio of Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout and Justin Upton factored in.

Minor is also pitching his best ball of the season in the second half, as evidenced by a 5-1 record, 2.88 ERA, 39:8 K:BB, and .170 BAA over 40.2 innings. That stretch includes two road quality starts in three tries — versus the Astros and Athletics, no less — lending credence to the notion that he’s improving as a road pitcher as well. The fact that his teammates don’t have an inordinately difficult matchup against Angels starter Jaime Barria also gives Minor a decent chance at a win, and his four quality starts over his last six outings overall would seemingly give him a solid fantasy floor at minimum.

ALSO CONSIDER:

Trevor Williams, PIT at STL

Dereck Rodriguez, SF vs. ATL

    MLB DFS Bargain Bin– Monday, Sept. 10th Quick Hits

• The Astros’ Justin Verlander bounced back in his first September outing after a relatively rough August, and he’s been about as effective on the road as he has been at home this season. However, Houston’s ace does have trouble with the long ball (27 homers allowed), so cheap Tigers hitters with some pop versus righties (i.e. Niko Goodrum, Nicholas Castellanos and Jim Adduci among them) aren’t a bad one-offs to use as a way to differentiate in big tournaments.

• The getting could be a lot better on the other side of the matchup, however, as Francisco Liriano takes the mound for the Tigers. Liriano has had a terrible time with righty bats at home (.321 average, .440 wOBA allowed), so the likes of Evan Gattis, Marwin Gonzalez, Tyler White and Yuli Gurriel are in play as cheaper right-handed Houston bats. Always worth noting that lefty Josh Reddick also hits same-handed pitching well (.382 wOBA), although he’s only 1-for-14 lifetime against Liriano.

• The Reds’ Cody Reed has been susceptible to right-handed hitters, but he’s been much more effective at home over an admittedly modest sample. Nevertheless, affordable Dodgers that hit lefties well such as Matt Kemp, David Freese and Yasmani Grandal are worthy of consideration.

• The Nationals’ Erick Fedde has been battered by both handedness of hitter this season, especially on the road over a relatively modest sample. That’s enough to put all Phillies value bats in play Monday, including the likes of Rhys Hoskins, Justin Bour, Asdrubal Cabrera, Carlos Santana and Wilson Ramos.

• On the other side, the Phillies’ Jake Arrieta has been very good at home overall, but he has allowed a .330 wOBA and 21.9 percent line-drive rate to lefty bats there. Consequently, Adam Eaton and the switch-hitting Wilmer Difo and Matt Wieters can be considered for larger tournaments. Also worth noting that Arrieta has had trouble with righty-hitting Mark Reynolds in the past (.409 average allowed over 23 plate appearances).

• The Marlins’ Jeff Brigham has had a rough introduction to the big leagues thus far, and he had his share of trouble with left-handed hitters in the minors. Therefore, value Mets lefty bats like Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce and Dwight Smith can all be considered, along with more expensive options like Jeff McNeil and Brandon Nimmo.

• Naturally not targeting the Indians’ Corey Kluber very much Monday, but worth pointing out that the slugging C.J. Cron does have a .375 average versus the ace over nine career plate appearances, a sample that includes a pair of doubles and only one strikeout.

• The Rays haven’t announced who’ll serve as their long man in Monday’s bullpen day after opener Diego Castillo exits, but it could be Jalen Beeks, who would be pitching on five days’ rest. If so, young lefty has been a bit uneven since arriving in Tampa, so it’s not a bad idea to deploy cheaper options like Yonder Alonso and Jason Kipnis (same-handed options who hit southpaws relatively well), as well as Yan Gomes (.389 CXwOBA against lefties) as far as cheap options on the Indians.

• The Cubs’ Jon Lester has been decimated by lefty hitters at Wrigley all season, allowing a .300 average, .441 wOBA, 26.9 percent line-drive rate and 34.9 percent hard contact rate to that handedness. Consequently, Mike Moustakas, Curtis Granderson, Travis Shaw and Eric Thames would be especially interesting among cheap Brewers left-handed bats to roll out, while right-handed hitting Ryan Braun has a .444 average over 20 plate appearances versus Lester in his career.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin– Monday, Sept. 10th Quick Hits

• The Brewers’ Wade Miley has proven very effective on the road thus far this season (1.96 ERA, .204 BAA), but among cheap Cubs bats, note that Albert Almora, Jr. has hit him well over a brief sample (3-for-5, including one homer and two RBI).

The Yankees’

Brett Gardner

(.364 average over 14 plate appearances) has a nice track record against Twins starter

Kyle Gibson

, while

Adeiny Hechavarria

has also hit him well over a much smaller sample (.500 average over five plate appearances). They’re two cheap Yankees bats to consider, and with Gibson allowing a .326 wOBA to righty hitters at Target Field,

Gary Sanchez

and

Luke Voit

also come into consideration.

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• The Royals’ Jakob Junis has been much better in the second half of the season, especially at limiting home runs (only three allowed over nine post-All-Star-break starts). Nevertheless, worth rolling out the likes of Yoan Moncada and Tim Anderson given their strong track records against the right-hander, along with Daniel Palka, Jose Abreu and Omar Narvaez due to their solid metrics versus right-handed pitching.

• Meanwhile, White Sox starter Lucas Giolito has struggled some with lefty batters on the road (.338 wOBA allowed), so Ryan O’Hearn, Alex Gordon, Brian Goodwin and Adalberto Mondesi come to mind as viable value bats on the Royals to consider.

• The Cardinals’ Adam Wainwright comes off the disabled list Monday after a long layoff to face the Pirates, and although he’s been very good in his rehab starts, matters will ramp up to another level now that he’s back in the majors. A number of Pirates that should be affordable have strong records against Wainwright (Josh Bell, Josh Harrison and Francisco Cervelli), so keep them in mind Monday. Meanwhile, Adam Frazier has been excellent against right-handed pitching (.364 wOBA).

• As with many Coors Field games, the story of the Diamondbacks-Rockies game Monday is simple — consider all value bats on either side, even with two solid arms in German Marquez and Zack Godley on the mound. These two teams naturally know each other very well, so the result could be anything from a surprising pitcher’s duel to a high-scoring shootout.

• The Angels’ Jaime Barria has been pitching well of late, but he’s still been touched up for a .366 wOBA (including six homers) and a 38.5 percent hard contact rate by right-handed hitters at home. Consequently, Elvis Andrus, Adrian Beltre and Robinson Chirinos come into focus on the Rangers, but any affordable lefty bats in the lineup with good metrics versus righties can also be considered.

• I expect a relatively low-scoring matchup between the Braves and Giants out west to wrap up the night. However, Braves lefty Sean Newcomb has allowed 10 homers, a 22.2 percent line-drive rate and a 34.8 percent hard contact rate to right-handed hitters overall, so it’s worth considering the likes of Austin Slater, Evan Longoria, Nick Hundley and Gorkys Hernandez as one-off type of possibilities in large tournaments.

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