MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Monday, September 10
Welcome to the Monday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Welcome to Monday everyone and some more MLB DFS – yes baseball – I know it may be confusing after spending 20 hours on Sunday watching the NFL but we still have baseball to be played and a nice little 10 game slate to kick-off our work week so let’s dive in.
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Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Starting Pitching Overview:
We have a 10 game MLB DFS slate to start our week off, but at first glance this is looking like it could turn into an 8 game slate with significant rain forecasted in Philadelphia and New York – by the way, get used to it, this is going to be a trend this week with the pending weather we have up and down the East Coast.
What this likely means is that we will not get to see Jacob deGrom take the mound for the Mets against the Marlins in New York – basically easiest spot you could deploy the hopeful 2018 Cy Young Award winner. Do not worry though, this slate is actually pretty strong from a pitching perspective and with Coors Field on the slate as well, this looks to be a fun slate to jump back into baseball.
Corey Kluber ($21.1K) is the clear pivot at the top off deGrom with a road match-up against the Tampa Bay Rays, where Kluber not only gets a massive park boost, but also comes into this game in excellent recent form. Over his last two starts against the Royals and and the very same Rays team ge faces today, Kluber has put up 35 and 33 fantasy points while tossing 13.2 innings, striking out 18 batters and allowing only 1 ER. This one is simple – Kluber is in an elite run prevention spot, with a massive ballpark boost and no weather issues – with his recent strikeout numbers trending upwards, Kluber looks to be the SP1 for cash games with deGrom looking washed out.
Over the last month of baseball there have been very few pitchers with the kind of numbers German Marquez ($17.7K) is putting up – in fact, his 33.6% K rate over the last 30 days ranks 7th in all of baseball and trails only Mr. deGrom for the pitchers on this slate tonight. Marquez has 8 straight starts with 20 or more fantasy points and has eclipsed that mark in 11 of his last 12 games – with 5 of those games coming in Coors Field.
Tonight, Marquez will face off with an Arizona team that is responsible for his only sub 20 fantasy point game in that stretch, where they touched him up for 5 ER in 6 innings but in fairness this was after he went for 25+ the game before in Coors against them where he struck out 8 batters and allowed only 2 ER over 6 innings of work.
Marquez’s consistency makes him cash game viable and his K ability makes him the perfect tournament option. It really all comes down to how much you believe in Coors Field – I think at this point, Marquez has proven that no matter the ballpark, he should be considered an elite DFS option we can build around in all formats.
Sean Newcomb ($14.4K) is probably best reserved for GPP play based off his recent outings but his match-up in San Francisco against the Giants is one where on the surface, he should be successful. Newcomb’s most recent stretch of starts, is well, ugly – putting up 3.35 fantasy points in TOTAL over his four previous starts against the Red Sox, Rockies, Brewers and Rays but what keeps your interest is that 6 innings, 8 K shutout of the Marlins where he put up 29.9 fantasy points and now you put him in an elite pitcher’s park against a weak hitting Giants team.
Lucas Giolito ($9K) was someone we highlighted in Picks and Pivots his last time out, he started out with a 1-2-3 first inning with a pair of K’s, then proceeded to give up 4 ER in the 2nd and made it through only 1.1 innings of work – but tonight against the Royals, I think we can go right back to the well.
I pointed everyone to Giolito based off this incredible article where the folks at FanGraphs have pointed out – there are some serious changes in his recent form including a significant uptick in his fastball velocity which has been sitting at nearly 94 MPH in his last four starts as opposed to 90-92 MPH throughout much of the earlier parts of this season. As the article points out – seriously, I know it is long but take the time to read it if you want to play Giolito it is well worth your time – there has been a chance in his arm angle and in his mechanics which supports the uptick in velocity but he is also seeing a substantial uptick in generating groundballs at nearly 55% during this recent run as opposed to his 43% season long average.
Prior to his hiccup last time out, Giolito had a 27% K rate and an 11.4% swinging strike over his previous four starts and tonight takes on a Royals team he dropped 26 FPTS on the last time they met on the back of 6 shutout innings and 6 K’s.
My gut reaction is that Giolito and Newcomb become the popular pairing if you want to stack Coors but I also think you can make the case to pay up for both Kluber and Marquez here and build around pitching as the weather gets colder and runs are harder to come by across baseball.
MLB DFS – Top Hitting Spots:
With a game in Coors Field, the only team as of this writing that has a 5+ run total is the Rockies at 5.29 which means they will likely be the most popular offense against Zack Godley and Arizona however this is reason to look elsewhere against a pitcher of Godley’s quality. Godley is an extreme ground ball pitcher, the kind that can have success in a place like Coors, and he has shown it in recent years as he has made three starts in Colorado the last two seasons, giving up 2 ER per game with only 1 HR allowed in nearly 19 innings of work.
There are a few spots outside of Coors Field that I think we can target – and you know I am starting with my boy Jon Lester who takes on the Brewers in Wrigley today. This is not about Lester and I know the wind is blowing in at Wrigley which likely leads to even more wizardry from this regression avoider – but it’s really more about the upside that a line-up like Milwaukee has when facing a pitcher without strong strikeout ability who has a SIERA over a full run higher than his ERA.
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You have four hitters in the Brewers projected line-up that have a .190 or higher ISO mark against LHP since 2017 – Lorenzo Cain, Jesus Aguilar, Ryan Braun and Jonathan Schoop – while Christian Yelich is sporting a .220 ISO mark against LHP this season which would seem to correlate well with Lester’s .252 ISO mark against LHB in 2018. Over the last 14 days, Milwaukee has scored 73 runs – the most of any team on this slate and 2nd in all of baseball behind Oakland during that time frame. We all know how stacking against Lester works out – I have to recommend but also have to warn you of the tilt-fest that is incoming if you follow me down this path to bankroll mis-management.
What I like about Milwaukee as a tournament pivot off Coors is that their pricing is high as guys like Yelich ($10.5K), Cain ($9.4K) and Aguilar ($9.6K) are in the same price range as the Coors hitters so if people are paying up they will likely go there and leave Milwaukee’s hitters lower owned.
The White Sox are likely not going to be a priority for many MLB DFS players today but against Jacob Junis, maybe they should be. Junis on the season is giving up 40% HC to hitters from both sides of the plate and has been hit hard by this White Sox team in 2018, surrendering 12 runs and 6 HR’s in only 16 innings of work.
Although Junis has been better recently, keep this in mind – Junis has 5 games this year where he has given up 3 or more HR’s – that is nearly 20% of his starts and it includes a 5 HR barrage at the hands of these White Sox earlier in the season. If you want a boom or bust offense to stack tonight in GPP’s – this White Sox team not only has the power to do it, but faces a pitcher who is more than willing to oblige.
The White Sox from a pure metrics perspective make for a high upside stack as the projected line-up has four batters with a .190+ ISO mark against RHP this season including Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu, Daniel Palka and Avisail Garcia. If Matt Davidson cracks the line-up he has a .200+ ISO mark of his own against RHP and has 2 HR’s in 6 career AB’s against Junis (as does Mr. Moncada).
The thing I love about the White Sox is the price point – as Jose Abreu ($8.2K) is the only hitter above $8K on the entire team. So if you want to build a roster with say Kluber/Marquez, it leaves you with $7.6K per batter – basically the perfect spot to stack up the White Sox hitters on this slate.
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