The Whiteboard: Your chances of making the NBA and more

WASHINGTON, DC -  APRIL 22: Mike Scott #30, John Wall #2, and Bradley Beal #3 of the Washington Wizards react to a play against the Toronto Raptors in Game Four of Round One of the 2018 NBA Playoffs on April 22, 2018 at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Ned Dishman/NBAE via Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC -  APRIL 22: Mike Scott #30, John Wall #2, and Bradley Beal #3 of the Washington Wizards react to a play against the Toronto Raptors in Game Four of Round One of the 2018 NBA Playoffs on April 22, 2018 at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Ned Dishman/NBAE via Getty Images)

The latest Monday Mailbag edition of The Whiteboard answers some pressing questions, as always.

A good mailbag article is always fun, and we’re all about fun here at The Whiteboard. If you’d like your question to be featured in next week’s Mailbag Monday, Tweet at me or send them via email to timeoutwithti@gmail.com. Without further ado, let’s get to the first batch of questions!

Both things might be true here. The collective NBA fanbase definitely gets fatigued when it comes to teams that stay together for a long time, even the really good ones. The Washington Wizards, a not really good team, are no exception to this.

The Wizards play in the East, which isn’t exactly the best NBA conference. They still haven’t been to the Conference Finals in the John Wall era, and Wall himself isn’t exactly getting any younger. Washington shook up the squad by flipping Marcin Gortat for Austin Rivers and adding Dwight Howard, but do those moves really matter when compared to the Boston Celtics, Toronto Raptors, and Philadelphia 76ers?

If Otto Porter takes a leap and Wall stays healthy, then maybe they do. Fans will have to see that before they buy Wizards stock though, and I don’t blame them.

Here’s a fun question. Never mind the total population — how tough is it to make the NBA even if you’re already an established basketball player? Let’s find out.

Overseas leagues would be the hardest number here to figure out, so we’ll just ballpark it. La Liga in Spain is one of the premier overseas basketball leagues, and it has 18 teams, each with roughly 15 players per roster. That’s 270 players. Let’s say there are five really competitive international leagues, just for the ease of math — we’re already at 1,350 players.

There are 27 G League teams, each with about 10 players that are solely G Leaguers. That’s another 270 in the running. Now let’s add, say, the last 10 NBA Drafts, each with 60 players selected. That’s 600 more. (There’s some overlap with drafted players and G Leaguers / overseas players, but we’ll ignore that since so many jump from the NCAA right to the draft.)

We’re sitting conservatively at 2,220 players in the top tier of the global talent pool. Not counting two-way spots, there are roughly 450 NBA roster spots. Even if you’re already in a position to be noticed by the NBA, there’s just a 20.3 percent chance of making the league. I wouldn’t want to bet those odds.

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