25-under-25: Lauri Markkanen might really be Dirk v2.0

The Step Back is rolling out its 25-under-25 list over this week. Follow along with our rankings of the top 25 NBA players under the age of 25.

Entering the 2017 NBA Draft, one of the most common comparisons between prospect and NBA player was Lauri Markkanen and Dirk Nowitzki. This was not the first time that this has happened, as it’s become the go-to comparison for any and all European big men that even present the illusion that they can shoot 3s.

Everyone from Markkanen to Kristaps Porzingis to Andrea Bargnani to Dragan Bender has gotten the comparison, and the wide range of skills and abilities present in that group of players should indicate how lazy the comparison is. It was very reasonable to be skeptical of that parallel fifteen months ago.

An important part of learning from past drafts, though, is using hindsight to assess your comparisons. We’re really good at this for busts — everyone remembers the hyperbolic claims made about Darko Milicic for instance, but every once in awhile, we actually get pretty close. Sometimes we actually get an approximation to the star player we think the draft prospect can become. The Lauri/Dirk comparison looked ludicrous at the time, because of the standard that was set for Markkanen to meet. But one year and one All-Rookie First Team season later, it doesn’t seem so wild.

The statistical comparison isn’t the most informative, given there are inherent reasons that Markkanen was better. Dirk was transitioning into the league directly from Germany, in a lockout season, in the era where bigs still weren’t allowed to take 3s too often. Markkanen spent a year at Arizona and plays in the 3-point happy modern game. Of course Markkanen looks better statistically, and that really doesn’t mean much projecting forward with development.

On film, though, you can see the similarities between the two players’ games. Both players were used heavily as spot-up shooters, and we can get a good look at the progression for Markkanen’s shooting form by comparing to where Dirk started out.

Markkanen was much more successful hitting 3s in his rookie season, but you can already see the makings of Dirk’s famous shot mechanics — he has a tighter release, and generates that beautiful arc we’re accustomed to. Markkanen’s mechanics are pretty sound, but they aren’t quite at the level of Nowitzki, a mantle few have ever reached. Still, that’s much closer than any of the other players Dirk has been compared to have gotten.

We knew Markkanen was going to have success coming off screens and spotting up from 3, given his success at Arizona. But the surprising area where Markkanen stacks up pretty well to young Dirk is in self-creation. We thought we’d never see a player as nimble and dangerous as young Dirk in the mid-post.

But Markkanen has his own unique style that he brings to the post. While he doesn’t have as good of footwork as Dirk, he is a little bit stronger, and uses his balance well to turn a small sliver of space into an open shot.

One area where Markkanen can improve as a post player is in his raw strength — rarely does he dislodge an opponent from the block, and without that legendary footwork to compensate, that does leave him a little behind in post play. But Markkanen still looks like he’ll be very good here, especially if he keeps working on his imitation game.

Lauri also has a shot to match Dirk as a slasher, one of the most underrated aspects of Nowitzki’s game. Even as a rookie, Dirk was solid at finding gaps or lapses in the defense and making plays at the rim.

While Markkanen isn’t quite the rebounder Dirk is, he has a nose for the rim, and many of his this past season came off cuts to the rim that started off of other actions developing elsewhere.

Markkanen even showed some areas where he was better than rookie Dirk, and has real potential to surpass him in some areas. The first is with his handle. Dirk has always been a quality dribbler, and in rare instances, was able to put the ball on the floor at a decent level early in his career.

Markkanen simply outclasses Dirk here. That Nowitzki was comfortable putting the ball on the floor was seen as a positive step, but it wasn’t until later in his career that he could really break someone down because he was a little timid with the ball and had a high dribble. Markkanen, on the other hand, has a much tighter handle, and some simple crossovers that he can use to generate space well attacking the rim.

He’s also better in the open floor, where he has better explosiveness attacking in a straight line.

There’s also passing, where Markkanen’s talent is statistically hidden but very apparent on tape. While Nowitzki’s assist numbers were higher in his rookie year with Dallas, that mostly came from simple swinging passes within the Mavericks’ offense. Markkanen may have only had a 6.4 percent assist rate last year, but his potential appears higher thanks to what he showed on the floor in year one.

Markkanen and Dirk are certainly not the same player, and this entire exercise is not to say that they are equals yet. We have no idea how Markkanen is going to develop from here, and there are aspects of the game where we will not know how Lauri stacks up until years from now. Will his team defense match where Dirk’s was from 2007-2012? Will Markkanen become the type of leader Dirk became under Rick Carlisle? Will Chicago struggle to cater their roster to Markkanen’s strengths in the way that Dallas did throughout the mid-00s? All of that factors in here, and it’s too early to say anything in that regard. There are a lot of ways for Markkanen to diverge from the Nowitzki path to stardom, both for good and bad.

But through one NBA season, Markkanen looks a lot closer to that Nowitzki comparison than ever really seemed possible coming out of the draft. Markkanen’s pick-and-pop threat, handle, and post game could create a devastating skill set for a modern NBA center, and it’ll be interesting to see how all of that progresses heading into 2018-19. It was still foolish to compare a rookie to one of the greatest players of all time, but early on, Markkanen has proven to have the same type of exciting potential that Dallas fans got to witness 20 years ago.