NFL DFS Quick Hits: Information you need for every game Week 2

Go game-by-game with the NFL DFS Quick Hits and cut the fluff from your preliminary research!

What’s up everyone! My name is Joe Metz and I’m the newest contributor to the CPR team and I couldn’t be more excited to join such a fantastic and knowledgeable team.

What are NFL DFS Quick Hits?:

For those of who haven’t read my quick hits before, I’m not going to persuade you into plays and tout top plays of the slate. My goal is simple. I want to help lead you in the right direction and cut the fluff when you start your research. I will list all 16 games of the week and highlight one piece of data, a trend, or notable narrative to help you focus your research.

I will also split up the article to make it an easier read. I will do this by breaking it up between the Thursday, Sunday (1 PM ET games), Sunday afternoon games and Monday games on separate slide.

With that being said, the best way to get familiar with it is to read it, so let’s get into Week 2:

Thursday Night Football

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals

For the past three seasons, the Bengals have been notorious for having one of the most frustrating running back committees in the NFL. If Week 1 is any indication, it seems like they’re ready to ditch that trend. Of the 24 total touches that Bengals running backs received on Sunday, Joe Mixon received 22 of them (91.7%), good for the 3rd highest mark of the week. He turned that into 149 all-purpose yards and a score (23.4 FanDuel points). His counterpart, the Ravens, only allowed 83 rushing yards in week 1 (albeit to the paltry Bills). Whether or not Mixon’s 90%+ share of the RB touches will be maintained remains to be seen, but he should see depressed ownership given the tougher matchup.

Sunday (1 PM ET) – NFL DFS

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons

Julio Jones amassed 19 targets last Thursday against the Eagles, his highest total since Week 3 of the 2015 season in which he amassed 20. Below are his targets in Week 1’s over the last 4 seasons paired with his total targets in that season:

• 2018 Week 1: 19 targets (? total for the season)
• 2017 Week 1: 5 targets (149 total for the season)
• 2016 Week 1: 8 targets (129 total for the season)
• 2015 Week 1: 11 targets (204 total for the season)

While it may sound like a reach, it already looks like the Falcons are going to do what it takes to get Julio back to his 2015 form when he posted 1,871 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns, as Week 1 has traditionally set a tone for his season. While he’s only hauled in 1 of his last 20 red zone targets from Matt Ryan, the sheer volume may be able to counter that struggle. When looking at opportunity, $8,500 seems much more reasonable than it would’ve felt during his down 2017 season.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Buffalo Bills

In 2017, the Chargers defense allowed the 3rd fewest passing yards per game (197.2), the 3rd fewest passing touchdowns (17) and recorded the 6th most interceptions (18). In week 1 of this season, they allowed 256 passing yards and 4 touchdowns without recording an interception. It wasn’t a stellar debut for a supposed stellar secondary. Luckily for LA, the Bills only threw for 70 (!!) passing yards, no touchdowns and 2 picks between a combination of Nate Peterman and Josh Allen. The latter would be a major upgrade over the former, but regardless, I would expect Los Angeles to look more like their 2017 selves than their Week 1 selves this week.

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

Okay, side note – Aaron Rodgers is the greatest quarterback to ever grace an NFL football field. – Signed, biased but extremely realistic Packers fan 🙂

Taking our attention off of the immaculate comeback from Sunday night, we need to address the fact that Aaron Rodgers’ status for Sunday is still up in the air. Even if he does play, his track record against Minnesota isn’t as attractive as you may think.

Over the past 4 seasons (7 games), he has only thrown 3 or more touchdowns twice, while topping 300 passing yards only once. He’s also recorded less than 215 passing yards in 5 of those games (one was shortened by injury). Obviously his ceiling remains through the roof, but the Vikings defense, who picked off 3 passes in week 1, could make for a sneaky tournament play at minimal ownership if Rodgers starts. If he sits, you found your chalk.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

Arguably one of the most surprising timeshares of week 1 came from the Titans backfield, as Dion Lewis earned himself 21 of the 32 touches (65.6%). While it was assumed that his main involvement would be in the passing downs, the 47-20 advantage in snaps says otherwise. In total, he recorded 75 rushing yards and a touchdown while also earning 5 receptions on 8 targets for 35 yards. If you play on DraftKings, that’s 24.5 fantasy points. Bet you didn’t see that coming, huh? To top it off, Derrick Henry only averaged 2.6 yards per carry on 10 rushes and only garnered 1 target for 5 yards. Against a middling Texans run defense, Lewis could find himself as one of the most low-key players on the slate with sneaky upside.

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Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints

The Saints allowed 48 total points to Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Buccaneers on Sunday. The last time they allowed more than 40 points? Week 3 of the 2016 season. If this season is going to prove that 2017’s defensive season was an outlier, expect Drew Brees‘ production to spike back to what we’re used to and for the Saints to air it out early and often. One of the primary beneficiaries? Michael Thomas. He was the first wide receiver to catch 16 passes in a game since Antonio Brown in 2015. His 17 targets paced the Saints as he lined up in the slot for more than 40% of his snaps, a drastic spike from last.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets

While we’ve watched Ryan Tannehill rely on Jarvis Landry for the last handful of season, it was interesting to see who would step up with his departure. Well, we got our answer; Kenny Stills. He and Tannehill were in sync throughout the entire game and while he only had 5 targets, they came in all different situations, ranging from a 10-yard red-zone touchdown to a 75-yard bomb of a TD. Having always been a reliable deep-threat, Stills seems poised to man the outside in 2018. On the opposite side of the field, the Jets gave up the second-most completions of 20+ yards in 2017 (61), giving Stills the potential to have yet another ceiling game this week.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers

We all expected James Conner to be the bell cow in week one, but what if I told you that he was the ONLY running back to receive 100% of his team’s backfield touches in Week 1 (36 touches)? Yeah, it happened. He was able to turn 36 touches into 135 rushing yards, 2 touchdowns and 5 receptions for 57 receiving yards. While Le’Veon Bell‘s status for Week 2 remains to be seen, I would expect Conner to lead the backfield again. While 36 touches may not be repeatable, it sure shows that they have no problem trusting him. The Chiefs also allowed 123 rushing yards in week 1, showing noticeable defensive struggles without Eric Berry.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

With Alshon Jeffery out in week 1, it was expected that Nelson Agholor would see an increased role and his 10 targets confirmed that. While he was able to haul in 8 passes, his 33 receiving yards left most rather disappointed. Nonetheless, opportunity is what you want to target in DFS. While he only averaged 4.1 yards per catch last week, his 12.4 yards per catch and 8 touchdowns in 2017 give reason for optimism. The Buccaneers allowed 432 passing yards to the Saints last week (most in the NFL), which could mean an increase in production for Nick Foles and the Eagles’ passing attack in general, while Agholor in particular comes in at a nice price on FanDuel ($6,100).

Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Redskins

Adrian Peterson received 28 of the 42 backfield touches for the Redskins last week. Yes, you read that right and no, it is not 2012. He was able to turn 26 carries into 96 rushing yards and a touchdown while hauling in 2 of 3 targets for 70 yards. He did lose a fumble, but this line overall was a very encouraging sign. The addition of check-down QB Alex Smith is a huge help for the RBs, as Washington should be expected to run the ball more as well behind Washington’s stellar offensive line. The Colts recently got thrashed by Joe Mixon to the tune of 95 rushing hards and 54 receiving yards, giving Peterson a whole lot of appeal this week.

Sunday Afternoon Games – NFL DFS

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams

After a premature end to his 2017 campaign, David Johnson came out of the gate slow in 2018. The Cardinals were able to get off 49 total plays but only ran on 15 of them. What’s even more surprising? He only received 63.6% of the backfield touches in their week 1 tilt. We can likely chalk a lot of this up to the game script (Arizona was trailing the entire game), but with a “bell-cow” like DJ, it was surprising nonetheless. 6 of those 22 total touches went to Chase Edmonds, the Cardinals’ 4th round draft pick. I wouldn’t expect him to chip into Johnson’s workload any more than he did on Sunday, meaning the only way to go is up. A Week 2 date with the up-tempo Rams could prove to be a nice bounce-back opportunity, as they allowed 122.3 rushing yards per game last season and 15 total rushing touchdowns.

Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers

After Jerick McKinnon went down with a torn ACL in the week leading up to week 1, ambiguity around whether Alfred Morris or Matt Brieda would command the backfield ran rampant. It’s safe to say that we still don’t have an answer. Of the 25 total touches in the backfield, both Morris and Brieda recorded 12. Morris received the blunt of the goal-line carries, but also fumbled twice in the process. Even with that being said, the game against the Lions has a Morris-esque game script written all over it. They allowed 169 rushing yards to the Jets and have a weak interior defense, giving the ground-and-pound potential of Morris a nice boost. The fact that he wasn’t benched after two fumbles should also give you reason to think his leash is rather long.

Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos

Tied for 10th in targets in week 1, Emmanuel Sanders built on his preseason rapport with new QB Case Keenum for a 10 catch, 135 yard and 1 touchdown performance. Sanders posted a 91% catch rate, while all other receivers that Keenum threw to posted a 54% catch rate. The bright side, however, was the fact that Keenum threw 39 passes. This bodes extremely well for both Sanders and counterpart Demaryius Thomas as they take on the Oakland Raiders whose secondary allowed the 7th most passing yards per game last season (241.1), the 12th most touchdowns (24) and the least amount of interceptions (5). All three of these players are also extremely cheap for the ceiling they provide, especially in PPR formats.

New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars

This game drastically hinges on the availability of Jaguars’ star RB Leonard Fournette, who left week 1’s tilt with a hamstring injury. If he’s to miss, expect TJ Yeldon to garner a high level of ownership. He recorded 17 touches throughout the game (14 carries, 3 catches) but also racked up an impressive 7 targets. The Patriots allowed 134 rushing yards to the Texans in week one (more than 5 yards per carry allowed), looking like a glaring hole in their defense. While they only allowed 115 passing yards, Yeldon may be looked to early and often even if Fournette is active, assuming the Jags want to handle him with caution.

Primetime Games (SNF & MNF) – NFL DFS

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys

Death, Taxes and Tight Ends against the Giants. While it didn’t work out in week one (Austin Seferian-Jenkins), this is a great opportunity for Geoff Swaim to show he can fill the void left by Jason Witten for the Cowboys. Last season, the Giants allowed an average of 9.39 fantasy points per game to the TE position (most in NFL), 55.5 yards per game and 12 total touchdowns (most in NFL). While Swaim only hauled in 3 passes in week 1, he played all 58 offensive snaps for the Cowboys, while backing Blake Jarwin was the next closest playing only 39%.

Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears

With Doug Baldwin doubtful for Seattle’s week 2 tilt, Tyler Lockett steps in as a very interesting GPP option. Moving to the slot after Baldwin went down, he was able to capitalize and post a 51-yard touchdown. The Bears secondary is underwhelming as a whole (just look at Kyle Fuller catching only 2 of 8 potential interceptions last season and dropping one already this year) but they particularly got burned in the slot last week.

Randall Cobb posted 9 catches on 10 targets for 142 yards and a score. The touchdown being a short pass that he exploited into a 70+ yard gain because the deep safeties for the Bears collapsed in on the play. If Lockett finds himself in the slot for the majority of the game, he could end up being a sneaky-good tournament option.

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