DraftKings Main MLB Picks September 12:
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings Main MLB Picks September 12: Pay up for Nola
This Wednesday is pretty chopped up. DraftKings put only the first four games in the early tournament, leaving a small two game afternoon slate that left off the San Diego/Seattle game. If you want a piece of that one, you have to play the all day tournament. That leaves us eight games for the main DraftKings tournament, which is roughly half the slate. Luckily for us, the better pitching is on this slate. We have a lot of good choices even if the bargain tier is a little barren.
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Rain will threaten Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Boston again. However, it should pass through Philly after a delay at the beginning. Baltimore’s threat is in the later innings, and Boston could be wet the entire time. Keep an eye on the radar again.
There is another crosswind in Minneapolis, but this is a full 5+ mph lower than last night. It can still knock a ball down though.
We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!
These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on!
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Top Tier:
Aaron Nola ($11,200): The Nats are only hitting .220 against Nola with four homers and 15 runs in 191 at bats to go with 64 strikeouts. Those aren’t quite the elite numbers that we covet, but everything that Nola has done this year fits that bill. Nola has made four starts against the Nationals in 2018. He has allowed just four earned runs. Nola’s average in those four games is 28.2 DraftKings points. I see no good reason to fade him here.
David Price ($9,700): The Blue Jays are only hitting .237 against Price in 135 at bats with five homers, ten runs, and 36 strikeouts. Those don’t really seem like numbers to break the bank for. However, Price has a 3.08 ERA in 14 home starts, and he has 59.1 DraftKings points in three starts against the Jays this year. If you are fading Nola for any reason, Price should be a suitable alternative.
Middle Tier:
Carlos Rodon ($8,600): Rodon has a 2.72 ERA in eight home starts this year. The current Royals have actually hit Rodon well, and they did pick up six runs last night. However, comparing Rodon to Dylan Covey is like comparing a Ferrari to a Ford Tempo. There simply is no comparison. The Royals do have some right handed power, but I’ll side with the arm of Rodon tonight.
Kyle Hendricks ($8,200): The Brewers are only hitting .228 with four homers and 14 runs in 197 at bats against Hendricks, but the 48 strikeouts is pretty good in comparison to Hendricks’ career mark. Hendricks has faced the Brewers three times this year and come away with 46.8 DraftKings points. When it comes down to it, Anderson has better numbers and is much cheaper. However, Hendricks will get more strikeouts which leaves you better insulated should he not pitch well.
Bargain Pitchers:
Chase Anderson ($6,700): Anderson is nothing exciting, and his past numbers against the Cubs are pedestrian at best. However, Anderson has three starts against the Cubs this year and has racked up 53.4 DraftKings points in those. Add in the fact that he has a 2.89 ERA in 13 road starts, and this would appear to be the time to use Anderson. The Cubs are hitting only .238 against Anderson, but they do have eight homers and 13 runs in 143 at bats with only 26 strikeouts. That is the major risk in using Anderson. He doesn’t rack up enough strikeouts to bail him out of trouble.
Chris Bassitt ($4,500): Bassitt has decent numbers, and decent is probably plenty good enough against the Orioles. He has not pitched all that well lately, but if Bassitt can get us somewhere in the mid teens for DraftKings points, I think we can be happy with that. This is a really cheap price.
Oakland Athletics vs. Andrew Cashner:
The A’s knocked Cashner around a little bit earlier this year. They look primed to do it again. The A’s are only hitting .257 against Cashner, but they have four homers and ten runs in 74 at bats. Matt Joyce has two of those homers, and is a cheap righty pounder. Khris Davis and Matt Olson have the other homers. Let others chase Coors. An A’s stack could be just as lucrative, cheaper, and less played. Finish it off with Lowrie and Semien, and you have a solid lineup core.
Chicago White Sox vs. Eric Skoglund:
Skoglund had more DraftKings points in his start against the White Sox in April than he had in all of his other nine appearances combined. Don’t count on a repeat of that. The Sox are healthy, and there is a ton of right handed power in this lineup. I’m a big fan of Abreu, Matt Davidson, Avi Garcia, Moncada, and Welington Castillo here. All of them are very affordable too. Tim Anderson did hit a homer against Skoglund earlier this year, so you can wedge him in there too.
Boston Red Sox vs. Aaron Sanchez:
Sanchez has had the misfortune of making three of his 18 starts against the Red Sox this year. He has given up 12 runs in 16 innings. Mookie, J.D., and Benintendi have all homered off of Sanchez, so if you are running this stack, you have to be willing to spend big. Jackie Bradley has a homer and five RBI just 15 at bats, and can help fight the salary crunch a little. Bogaerts has the other homer, so if you are chasing long balls, this is about as expensive as Coors.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Jon Gray:
Gray walked more batters in his last start (5) than he had in his previous five starts combined (4) last week. That’s a problem. That is what hounded Gray before his exile to AAA. The Diamondbacks have hammered Gray, hitting .360 with two homers and 13 runs in just 86 at bats against him. That last start made me nervous. The wheels could be close to falling off for Gray, and this team has made him pay in the past. Socrates Brito and Owings have the homers. David Peralta is 8-16 against Gray. A.J. Pollock is 4-9, and is worth a look. The only Arizona player that I would avoid is Goldschmidt. He is 0-12 lifetime against Gray.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Yovani Gallardo:
Gallardo pitched pretty well against the Trout-less Angels in Arlington back on August 19th. Gallardo hasn’t even matched that point total in his last three starts combined. Road struggles have had something to do with that, which is bad news for Gallardo. Oh, and Trout’s back. Trout and Ohtani are definitely on my radar. Andrelton Simmons is 7-12 in his career against Gallardo. Kole Calhoun is 4-11. David Fletcher had two hits in three tries in that game in Arlington. I would finish this off with whoever catches or Upton if he is in the lineup.
Texas Rangers vs. Felix Pena:
For whatever reason, Pena has been a disaster at home with a 6.17 ERA in seven home starts. Texas has the bats to take advantage of this. Joey Gallo, Odor, Profar, and Nomar Mazara are definitely in play here. I also like Choo here or Robinson Chirinos to finish off the stack.
Top Tier:
If you want to go after Nola, you probably have to go with Bryce Harper. Harper has two homers and five RBI and a .300 average in 30 at bats. I wouldn’t consider any other Nationals player though.
As much as I like Patrick Corbin, I don’t trust him at Coors. I’m not all that high on Rockies bats either, but I’m definitely on a couple of them. Arenado just destroys lefties, and he has smacked two homers off of Corbin in his career. However, DJ LeMahieu has four homers, ten runs, and seven RBI in his career against Corbin. He is my favorite Rockie tonight. Of course, Trevor Story is 6-17 with a homer, so he is worth a look too.
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Middle Tier:
Strasburg has not been at his best against the Phillies this year. This is a time to take a poke at him with some cheap Phillies bats. Asdrubal Cabrera, Maikel Franco, and Justin Bour have each homered off of Strasburg twice. Jose Bautista has taken him out once. One or two of these are worth a look.
It’s pretty tempting to stack Orioles against Chris Bassitt, but with who? This whole lineup is underperforming at the moment. I do like Adam Jones and Tim Beckham on the cheap, but that’s about it.
Jake Odorizzi has allowed six homers to the Yankees in only 105 at bats, so you can chase him here. Gary Sanchez is heating up anyway, and he has one. So does Stanton. And Gardner. And Torres. The one that has hit the Twins hardest so far is Greg Bird. He has two homers and four RBI in only seven at bats against Odorizzi. You can stack or use Bird/Stanton as a duo. Either looks appealing tonight.
Travis Shaw is the Brewer that is really on my radar tonight. He has slugged three homers and driven in seven in 21 at bats against Kyle Hendricks. The only other Brewer I’m really considering is Moose. Eric Thames has homered against Hendricks as well, but it’s hard to rely on someone that cold.
Ben Zobrist and Kris Bryant have each homered twice off of Chase Anderson, but Willson Contreras is the only other Cub to really hit him well. I wouldn’t go any deeper than these three, and even that may be pushing it.
Teoscar Hernandez, Justin Smoak, Devon Travis, Kendrys Morales, and Kevin Pillar have all homered off of Price in their careers. However, the only one I’m really willing to chase here is Travis. He is 7-16, so his chances of coming up completely empty aren’t very good.
Bargain Shoppers:
Listen, it’s going to be really tempting to use Severino tonight, but you must resist that urge. Severino has a 6.97 ERA in his last ten starts, and has been almost two runs worse per game on the road over the course of the season. You see the Twins and start drooling, but this lineup scored ten on the Yankees last night. I would much rather go after Severino with guys like Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario, and Max Kepler. Logan Forsythe is the only current Twin to homer off of him though.
I don’t plan on going hard after Rodon, but Alcides Escobar has homered off of him. If Escobar starts, he could be worth a punt. Merrifield and Mondesi had good games last night if you are willing to spend a little on Royals bats.
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