DraftKings Ownership Recap: Week 1 Defenses

Football is back, and it feels so..so..good. Week 1 had as many fireworks as expected and much much more. More importantly, NFL DFS is back and better than ever. Each year, the competition gets fiercer as average DFS players turn into stars with the amount of information and analysis available at the fingertips.

Each and every week, I will be your ownership guru here at Fantasy CPR. On Saturday’s, you will have access to my projected ownership for the week and we will recap the results on Tuesdays. 

For clarity, we will only be analyzing the main slate of the week (1PM and 4PM EST games) on DraftKings which includes the new version of the Millionaire Maker, Roman’s Fantasy Football Millionaire.

NFL Week 1 DraftKings Ownership Review – DEFs

DFS DraftKings

Welcome to Week 1 of a new installment to the Fantasy CPR page, DraftKings NFL Ownership Projections and Review. Please bookmark this page (ALEX MCKINNON) to find your weekly ownership projections and reviews and follow me on twitter @AlexMcKinnonDFS for up to the minute news and notes about DFS ownership in the NFL.

A running theme throughout DFS history and DFS future was and always will be four main qualities to make someone chalk or popular to the public. Injury/Opportunity, Price, Match Up, Recent success.

• Injury/Opportunity – A injury to a specific position on the depth chart that creates more or new opportunities for a a player.
• Price – Often coorelated with Injuries, a low priced option that the public feels will have opportunity to get a higher volume then originally projected is key.
• Match Up – Very simply, a DFS player will target week defensive (or offensive) match ups at a particular position or overall.
• Recent Success – A player who is on a positive trajectory and is outscoring his projected value.

On the next page, I have a breakdown of the price, opponent, ownership and production for the eligible defenses in Week 1 on DraftKings Roman Fantasy Football Millionaire, the premiere contest in NFL DFS where the #1 spot receives $1 Million dollars.

NFL Week 1 Ownership Review – DEFs

Chart Key

17 Rank – Opponents Ranked On DraftKings Points allowed to this position (DEF) in 2017

Multiplier – Perceived value based on price (DK Points / Price)

Example of Multiplier – Patriots 8 Points / 2.4 ($2400) = 3.3 x multiplier

According the the results on the Millionaire contest, 181 points would have cashed in Week 1, meaning if each of your selections came in at 3.62 x multiplier, you would have been in the money. 

Overall, this was a pretty good week for defenses. Despite some high scoring affairs, 16 out of the 24 teams had at least 7 DK Points which is pretty incredible. On top of that, 11 out of the 24 hit value (see below) and a remarkable TWELVE teams had 10 or more points. The middle of the pack (pricing) was a gold mine this week and match ups obviously played a huge factor.

Follow The Leader (Best Chalk Plays)

• Ravens (20.45% owned) – 17 DK Points
• Browns (8.45% owned) – 16 DK Points
• Jaguars (5.77% owned) – 13 DK Points

The Ravens ($3800) were the runaway chalk this week in a game where Nathan Peterman was the starter opposite Joe Flacco. The 5 INT game from last season stuck in the public’s mind and it paid off this week. Only 1 team (Vikings) outscored the Ravens in Week 1 so you can chalk this one up as a great chalk.

The Browns ($2000) were the third highest owned defense for three reasons. There was clearly a culture change for the team coming in to this year, the Steelers were without Le’Veon Bell and the early weather reports were monsoon-like conditions. The Browns still managed to blow the victory in Browns-like fashion, James Conner did an amazing impression of Le’Veon Bell and the weather held up outside of a few rain showers. HOWEVER, the Browns still pulled it off with 16 DK points from 3 INT, 3 Fumble Recoveries and 4 Sacks. They were the lowest priced option this past week and are again only $2000 heading into this week against the Saints.

The Jaguars ($3700) weren’t THAT chalky at 5.77% ownership but that was still good for 5th most owned team. I believe some DFS players were tepid with a revamped Giants offense on the other side including a monster in Saquon Barkley. They were priced high so the value wasn’t immaculate but this was a ‘success’ at the top of the ownership list.

If You’re Friend Jumped Off A Bridge, Would You Jump Too? (Worst Chalk Plays)

• Saints (9.21% owned) – –4 DK Points
• Patriots (7% owned) – 8 DK Points
• Chargers (5.53% owned) – –3 DK Points
• Cardinals (5.23% owned) – 5 DK Points

Listen, if you expected the Saints to get trounced by Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bucs, good on you. The Saints ($3600)  being the 2nd highest owned team was reasonable and I don’t fault those who put them in their lineup. It clearly didn’t work out giving up 48 points to Fitzmagic and the gang. They are in line for a bounce bank game against the Browns this week.

The Patriots ($2400) were reasonably priced against a Texans team with a superstar returning from a brutal injury. The Patriots defense is clearly a different unit then they were last year, especially in the front seven. If it wasn’t for a few late TD drives by the Texans, they would have been a great play this week.

The Chargers ($2800) were one only two teams (Saints) with a negative result this week with both being in the Top 6 in ownership. I don’t really understand this play as much as I did the Saints. The Chargers were facing an unknown in Patrick Mahomes in what was lining up as a possible shootout. They were also without their best defensive player in Joey Bosa. At $2800, I don’t really have an explanation as to why they were above 5% owned. They will however be a great pick going forward with the return of Joey Bosa.

The Cardinals ($2500) had a very disappointing performance this week against a Redskins team with a bunch of new, aging or injury prone, pieces who someone picked Arizona’s defense apart. I was expecting a little more out of that defensive line with Chandler Jones and was surprised to see how poorly they played only putting up 5 DK Points, good for the 5th worst performance.

Where Did You Come From? (Best Low Ownership Performances)

• Chiefs (1.07% owned) – 10 DK Points
• Redskins (1.35% owned) – 13 DK Points
• Dolphins (2% owned) – 13 DK Points
• Vikings (4.47% owned) – 18 DK Points

Despite the shootout element of the Chiefs/Chargers game this weekend, the Chiefs ($2300) were able to pull out a solid performance on defense for DraftKings mostly because of Tyreek Hill’s return TD. At 1% owned and just $2300, they were a nice value play for those who took a shot.

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Sam Bradford just isn’t going to get it done for the Cardinals. I think the Josh Rosen era is much closer than we think. In the interim, the Redskins ($2800) took advantage of the Sam Bradford era only allowing 6 points to a team with Larry Fitzgerald and the return of David Johnson.

The Dolphins ($2400) took advantage of 800 hours of weather delays and the injuries to Delanie Walker and Marcus Mariota to pull off the surprise value play at $2400. I can’t imagine they have the same luck against the rejuvenated Jets but they did have 3 INTs and a defensive TD against the Titans.

People were SCARED of the 7-0 Jimmy Garoppolo this week. The Vikings ($3500) defense was a machine last season and didn’t lose anyone significant. Garoppolo and the 49ers had some time to develop but the offensive weapons didn’t improve from 2017 to 2018. Garoppolo will have a great year but the Vikings made him look silly this week. Minnesota had the highest DK score with 18 this week and should ride the top of the leader board most of the season.

Are You Worth Your Salt? (Best Value Multipliers)

• Browns (8 x)

• Dolphins (5.42 x)

• Vikings (5.14 x)

• Redskins (4.64 x)

• Ravens (4.47 x)

• Bengals (4.44 x)

• Chiefs (4.35 x)

• Titans (3.79 x)

• Panthers (3.75 x)

• Broncos (3.64 x)

• Texans (3.64 x)

As I mentioned above, a multiplier of 3.62 across the board in your lineup would have put you in the money on DraftKings Millionaire contest. 11 defenses (above) were able to accomplish this feat this week. Depending on the week, a lineup that contains 4-5 x it’s value will put you in contention for a tournament win. 7 defenses were at least 4 x and 1 was able to surpass 8 x their value (Browns) which is the equivalent of two elite defensive performances.

What Did We Learn?

There was value all over the place this week as you can see above with 11 out of the 24 options hitting over value on the week. 7 of these 11 were under $3000 and clearly show that there is value all over the board. Outside of the Browns (vs. Steelers), only one defense was able to score 10 or more DK points against a top 10 offense in 2017 (DK Points allowed to opponent). Keep an eye on the match ups but you can definitely find value at the bottom of the barrel.

Be sure to follow me on twitter at @AlexMcKinnonDFS for the latest in DraftKings ownership for the NFL season and let me know who you think will be chalk in Week 2!