DraftKings Ownership Recap: Week 1 Quarterbacks

Football is back, and it feels so..so..good. Week 1 had as many fireworks as expected and much much more. More importantly, NFL DFS is back and better than ever. Each year, the competition gets fiercer as average DFS players turn into stars with the amount of information and analysis available at the fingertips.

Each and every week, I will be your ownership guru here at Fantasy CPR. On Saturday’s, you will have access to my projected ownership for the week (See QB projections from this past week) and we will recap the results on Tuesdays. 

For clarity, we will only be analyzing the main slate of the week (1PM and 4PM EST games) on DraftKings which includes the new version of the Millionaire Maker, Roman’s Fantasy Football Millionaire.

NFL Week 1 Ownership Review – QBs

DFS DraftKings

Welcome to Week 1 of a new installment to the Fantasy CPR page, DraftKings NFL Ownership Projections and Review. Please bookmark this page –>  ALEX MCKINNON  <–to find your weekly ownership projections and reviews and follow me on twitter @AlexMcKinnonDFS for up to the minute news and notes about DFS ownership in the NFL.

A running theme throughout DFS history and DFS future was and always will be four main qualities to make someone chalk or popular to the public. Price, Recent Success, Opportunity/Injury, and Match Up or P.R.O.M.

• Price – Often coorelated with Injuries, a low priced option that the public feels will have opportunity to get a higher volume then originally projected is key.
• Recent Success – A player who is on a positive trajectory and is outscoring his projected value.

• Opportunity/Injury – A injury to a specific position on the depth chart that creates more or new opportunities for a a player.
• Match Up – Very simply, a DFS player will target week defensive (or offensive) match ups at a particular position or overall.

On the next page, I have a breakdown of the price, opponent, ownership and production for the eligible QBs from Week 1 on DraftKings Roman Fantasy Football Millionaire, the premiere contest in NFL DFS where the #1 spot receives $1 Million dollars.

Chart Key

17 Rank – Opponent Ranked On DK Points allowed to this position (QB) in 2017

Multiplier – Perceived value based on price (DK Points / Price)

Example of Multiplier – Drew Brees 34.56 Points / 6.8 ($6800) = 5.08 x multiplier

According the the results on the Millionaire contest, 181 points would have cashed in Week 1, meaning if each of your selections came in at 3.62 x multiplier, you would have been in the money. 

The quarterback landscape was interesting this week. Prior to the weekend, there were no real ‘stick out like a sore thumb’, obvious plays on the board. It seems that the ownership this week was heavily dictated by the match up, deriving from the statistics of the prior season. It was also noteworthy that price didn’t play a major factor in ownership which I attribute to the overall low and modest pricing for every option on the board The ownership at the top was so tight that the difference between the highest owned (11.86%) and the 4th highest owned (11.07%) had only 0.79% separating them!

Follow The Leader (Best Chalk Plays)

• Drew Brees (11.86% owned) – 34.56 DK Points
• Philip Rivers (11.41% owned) – 32.96 DK Points
• Tom Brady (8.59 % owned) – 22.28 DK Points

Seems like a simple equation so far…Pick a historically dominant Quarterback in a soft match up in week 1 and you can pretty much bank on the results. Three timeless Quarterbacks were at the top of this list for ownership and performance for Week 1.

Despite getting absolutely embarrassed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Drew Brees ($6800) was magnificent. 37 of 45 completed, 439 yards and 3 TDs with zero INTs. Brees being the #1 chalk of the week made sense against Tampa’s defense and many expected the Buccaneers offense to be off the field for most of the day (more later).

Philip Rivers ($6400) also found himself in a situation where the opposing QB was the star but he still managed to pull of a great line of 34 for 51, 424 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT. This offense is potent this year, especially if Keenan Allen can remain healthy. Rivers will be near the top of the chalk plays every week.

Tom Brady ($7200) had a mediocre performance by his standards of 26 for 39, 277 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT but he got the job done for DraftKings owners. Despite a low ownership of 8.59%, he was the fifth chalkiest QB of the weekend.

If You’re Friend Jumped Off A Bridge, Would You Jump Too? (Worst Chalk Plays)

• Andy Dalton (11.59% owned) – 17.52 DK Points
• Deshaun Watson (11.07% owned) – 13.04 DK Points

Neither of these QBs were atrocious (see: Nathan Peterman), but in a week where ownership was a separator at the QB position, these guys didn’t fit the bill. As the 2nd biggest chalk of the week, Andy Dalton ($5800) brought home 17.52 DK Points (and a win) off of 21 for 28, 243 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. A fine performance, but with such success stories in the pricing bracket both above and below Dalton, he left a bit on the table.

I very much understand the logic of those who rostered Deshaun Watson ($6700) this weekend. Before his season ended due to an ACL tear last season, he was probably the most electric man in football. He was absolutely lethal with his feet and the connection with DeAndre Hopkins was terrifying to the league. He was reasonably priced and reasonably owned and the explosive potential was there.

Unfortunately, the Patriots defense seems to have improved from last season after being 27th against quarterbacks last season in DK Points allowed. Additionally, it was very evident that Watson was being tepid about letting it loose in game 1 after last years injury.

Where Did You Come From? (Best Low Ownership Performances)

• Ryan Fitzpatrick (1.29% owned) – 45.28 DK Points
• Joe Flacco (1.30% owned) – 21.74 DK Points
• Tyrod Taylor (2.09% owned) – 24.58 DK Points
• Patrick Mahomes (3.11% owned) – 28.34 DK Points

Did you know Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5000) went to Harvard? What an absurd performance for the career journeyman with a second rate offense. This is one of those performances (21 for 28, 417 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs, 36 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD) where you have to just tip your cap to Fitzmagic and his wonderful beard and move on to Week 2. No sane DFS player knew this was coming from Ryan Fitzpatrick and most of those who had him rostered were those who carry hundreds of lineups.

Joe Flacco ($4900) was replaced early in the second half and was still able to string together 21.74 DraftKings points while the Ravens smoked the Bills 47-3. There is certainly something to a little competition that will awaken any competitor and Joe Flacco certainly has that with Lamar Jackson. This may not be a flash in the pan after seeing the instant connection between Flacco and his new fleet of receivers and running backs by committee. Good pivot play to the 1.3% of lineups out there.

Tyrod Taylor ($5400) also has a QB competition under way in Cleveland which has a slightly more imminent expiration date. Baker Mayfield will eventually be the starter for the Browns but enjoy Tyrod’s consistent performance in the interim. With a solid 14.7 DK points per game last year, he continues to use his feet and impressive accuracy to be a safe play every week.

Patrick Mahomes ($6000) was one of my favorite plays heading into the week and was an absolute stud over the weekend. You saw flashes of it last year and this preseason, but he legitimately does have a semi-automatic weapon attached to his shoulder. Unfortunately Mahomes and Tyreek Hill will no longer be under owned for the rest of the season…It was fun while it lasted.

Are You Worth Your Salt? (Best Value Multipliers)

• Ryan Fitzpatrick (9.06 x)

• Philip Rivers (5.15 x)

• Drew Brees (5.08 x)

• Case Keenum (4.93 x)

• Patrick Mahomes (4.72 x)

• Tyrod Taylor (4.55 x)

• Joe Flacco (4.44 x)

• Andrew Luck (3.85 x)

• Russell Wilson (3.62 x)

As I mentioned above, a multiplier of 3.62 across the board in your lineup would have put you in the money on DraftKings Millionaire contest. Nine quarterbacks (above) were able to accomplish this feat this week, which is rather impressive especially Russell Wilson hitting value directly on the nose. Depending on the week, a lineup that contains 4-5 x it’s value will put you in contention for a tournament win. Seven quarterbacks were at least 4 x and three were able to surpass 5 x their value. Of course, playing Ryan Fitzpatrick and his 9.06 x value was the equivalent to playing two ELITE quarterbacks in one lineup…which is what everyone predicted, right?

 What Did We Learn?

Week 1 was a nice launching point for the season and will lay a foundation down for future QB plays in DFS contests. MATCH UP IS KING. Match up’s will clearly play a factor in ownership moving forward. Price will climb to adjust for trending quarterbacks and will slowly become more of a factor when you have to choose between one of the elites who will eventually cost $7500 and up or paying down and taking a risk with a low priced option. Overall, I think this week provided a good indication that ownership will remain pretty spread out all year. Continue reading FantasyCPR and we will help you isolate the value plays all year long!

Be sure to follow me on twitter at @AlexMcKinnonDFS for the latest in DraftKings ownership for the NFL season and let me know who you think will be chalk in Week 2!