DraftKings Ownership Recap: Week 1 Tight Ends

Football is back, and it feels so..so..good. Week 1 had as many fireworks as expected and much much more. More importantly, NFL DFS is back and better than ever. Each year, the competition gets fiercer as average DFS players turn into stars with the amount of information and analysis available at the fingertips.

Each and every week, I will be your ownership guru here at Fantasy CPR. On Saturday’s, you will have access to my projected ownership for the week and we will recap the results on Tuesdays. 

For clarity, we will only be analyzing the main slate of the week (1PM and 4PM EST games) on DraftKings which includes the new version of the Millionaire Maker, Roman’s Fantasy Football Millionaire.

NFL Week 1 Ownership Review – TEs

DFS DraftKings

Welcome to Week 1 of a new installment to the Fantasy CPR page, DraftKings NFL Ownership Projections and Review. Please bookmark this page (ALEX MCKINNON) to find your weekly ownership projections and reviews and follow me on twitter @AlexMcKinnonDFS for up to the minute news and notes about DFS ownership in the NFL.

A running theme throughout DFS history and DFS future was and always will be four main qualities to make someone chalk or popular to the public. Injury/Opportunity, Price, Match Up, Recent success.

• Injury/Opportunity – A injury to a specific position on the depth chart that creates more or new opportunities for a player.
• Price – Often correlated with Injuries, a low-priced option that the public feels will have opportunity to get a higher volume than originally projected is key.
• Match Up – Very simply, a DFS player will target week defensive (or offensive) match ups at a particular position or overall.
• Recent Success – A player who is on a positive trajectory and is outscoring his projected value.

On the next page, I have a breakdown of the price, opponent, ownership and production for the eligible TEs in Week 1 on DraftKings Roman Fantasy Football Millionaire, the premiere contest in NFL DFS where the #1 spot receives $1 Million dollars.

NFL Week 1 Ownership Review – TEs

Chart Key

17 Rank – Opponents Ranked On DraftKings Points allowed to this position (TE) in 2017

Multiplier – Perceived value based on price (DK Points / Price)

Example of Multiplier – Jordan Reed 14.8 Points / 4.0 ($4000) = 3.7 x multiplier

According the the results on the Millionaire contest, 181 points would have cashed in Week 1, meaning if each of your selections came in at 3.62 x multiplier, you would have been in the money. 

Boy…This is going to be a tough year for Tight Ends in the DFS world. Gone are the days of a dominant rotation of TEs like Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Greg Olsen, Jason Witten, etc. Today, we are left with a couple of cash cows and a bunch of middling options to choose from. One thing is clear, Rob Gronkowski will likely be the only TE you can count on week in and week out, pending his health. The rest of the field has had a drastic change in roles (Kelce), has new competition (Doyle with Ebron) or have already gotten injured (Walker).

Follow The Leader (Best Chalk Plays)

• Rob Gronkowski (20.78% owned) – 27.3 DK Points
• Jack Doyle (19.59% owned) – 12 DK Points
• Jordan Reed (12.53% owned) – 14.8 DK Points

A pretty putrid lineup for ‘Best Chalk Plays’ but unfortunately, this is what we have to work with. Rob Gronkowski ($6900) was a force in the Texans game which included a display of footwork near the end zone that mirrored a professional ballroom dancer on his way to his first and only TD on the day. He only rose to $7000 for next week but it’s a game against Jacksonville. He is presumably going to be chalk again despite the match but I can’t imagine he will surpass 20% ownership again.

Jack Doyle ($3600) is only in the ‘Best Chalk Plays’ category due to his price. He did see 10 targets from Andrew Luck on Sunday but it is very clear that Eric Ebron will put a dent in his production. The only bright spot to his performance was that he put up 12 points without a TD (7 catches, 60 yards, 1 fumble) so there is still pretty decent upside if his price stays low.

Jordan Reed ($4000) looked pretty good with his new quarterback Alex Smith. He received only 5 targets on Sunday and took advantage with 4 catches, 48 yards and 1 TD. I don’t expect Alex Smith to target the running backs 10 times out of the backfield every week (Thompson 7, Peterson 3) which clearly take targets away from guys like Reed. He appears to be healthy enough and may be one of the few remaining ‘star’ tight ends in our league if he can stay that way.

If You’re Friend Jumped Off A Bridge, Would You Jump Too? (Worst Chalk Plays)

• Delanie Walker (7.16% owned) – 9.2 DK Points
• Kyle Rudolph (4.82% owned) – 8.1 DK Points
• Travis Kelce (3.96% owned) – 1.6 DK Points

The ownership was spread out this week among TEs so only three resulted in over 10% ownership. The next tier was the 4-8% owned which didn’t include a single good performance. Delanie Walker ($4900) suffered a gruesome injury in the Titans-Dolphins game and unfortunately is out for the season. Another tough blow to Titans fans and DFS fans as Walker has been one of the few TEs with some consistency each year.

Kyle Rudolph ($4500) is clearly over matched when lining up with the Vikings Offense. There are so many options for Kirk Cousins to test out with Cook and Murray in the backfield and Diggs and Thielen outside. I am worried that Rudolph will be pretty absent outside of the red zone. You can hope for those red zone targets and pray for a TD or two but he definitely isn’t a main target for Cousins as of now.

Similar to Rudolph, Travis Kelce ($6400) better start running faster. He looked lost in the Chiefs offense during Sunday’s blowout and clearly doesn’t fit the run and gun offense that Patrick Mahomes wants to install. At least for the start of the season, Kelce seems to only be a red zone threat, like Rudolph, until defenses learn how to slow Mahomes down.

Where Did You Come From? (Best Low Ownership Performances)

• Eric Ebron (2.75% owned) – 15.1 DK Points
• Will Dissly (0.00% owned) – 22.5 DK Points
• George Kittle (1.55% owned) – 14 DK Points

Former first round pick, Eric Ebron ($3300), has had a generally disappointing career. Outside of a pair of 500 yard campaigns with the Lions, he has not lived up to the hype of a 10th overall pick. The tangibles are there still but I don’t see a scenario where he is a premiere tight end in this league again. That being said, Andrew Luck will throw the ball to anyone who can get open. Ebron may not completely break into Jack Doyle’s market share but he might be able to carve out his own if he continues to produce in Andrew Luck’s offense. The Colts have a rather weak WR unit outside of TY Hilton so there is no reason to think both Ebron and Doyle can have a successful year with the former #1 overall pick Luck.

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I was only able to pull the ownership to the tune of x.xx% and no further. Dissly resulted in 0.00% ownership this week but I imagine there was at least a handful of lineups that had him. Either way, NO ONE had Will Dissly ($2500) this week. He was certainly an unexpected success story this week but the writing was on the wall for this to at least be a possibility. The Seahawks are WEAK at tight end with the only other viable option being Nick Vannett (the expected #1) who only had 15 catches in his career heading into this season. The Seahawks also spent a 4th round pick on Dissly. He did only have 5 targets (3 catches, 105 yards and a TD) but without Doug Baldwin going forward, there may be a roll for both Dissly and Vannett.

The lone bright spot for the 49ers offense this past weekend was George Kittle ($3300).Kittle did show flashes of brilliance last season including his first 100 yard performance coming in Week 15 last year with Jimmy Garoppolo. On Sunday, Kittle saw 9 targets for the first time since Week 5 of last year as he only averaged 4.2 targets per game in 2017. There was a clear connection between Kittle and Jimmy G this weekend and more importantly for DFS owners, he was a deep ball target. After having a solid performance (5 catches, 90 yards) against what may be the best defense in the league (Vikings) in a game where Garoppolo didn’t look good at all, Kittle may be in line for a huge season. My prediction for Week 2 is that George Kittle will be the chalk and in a big way. He only rose up to $3800 and the 49ers are matched up against the Lions who just gave 48 to the Jets.

 Are You Worth Your Salt? (Best Value Multipliers)

• Will Dissly (9 x)

• Eric Ebron (4.58 x)

• George Kittle (4.24 x)

• Rob Gronkowski (3.96 x)

• Jordan Reed (3.7 x)

As I mentioned above, a multiplier of 3.62 across the board in your lineup would have put you in the money on DraftKings Millionaire contest. 5 Tight Ends (above) were able to accomplish this feat this week. Depending on the week, a lineup that contains 4-5 x it’s value will put you in contention for a tournament win. 3 Tight Ends were at least 4 x and 1 were able to surpass 9 x their value (Dissly) which is the equivalent of two elite tight ends.

What Did We Learn?

The biggest take away from Week 1 with Tight Ends is that this will be the most difficult position to roster every week. As you can see, only 5 TEs were able to produce enough to be of value and only 3 were good enough to be in a tournament winning lineup. Match Ups will be a huge factor as only 1 TE this week had 10 or more points against a top 10 defense from last year (in DK Points allowed to TEs). Don’t shy too much away from the chalk this season…It’s better to be safe than sorry when it comes to this position.

Be sure to follow me on twitter at @AlexMcKinnonDFS for the latest in DraftKings ownership for the NFL season and let me know who you think will be chalk in Week 2!