DraftKings Main MLB Picks September 13: Is Kershaw worth it?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings Main MLB Picks September 13: Is Kershaw worth it?
It is a light Thursday overall with only eight games total and six in the main DraftKings tournament. There is one ace out there with a weak middle tier if you plan on fading. Coors is out since it’s a day game. What happens with this slate? Let’s take a look!
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We should get all six games in without interference from the weather, so that’s a plus. There isn’t even any wind to worry about.
We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!
These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on!
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Top Tier:
Clayton Kershaw ($11,900): The Cardinals are only hitting .212 with one homer and three runs in 80 at bats against Kershaw with 24 strikeouts. That is his normal dominating stuff. Kershaw has not had a scoreless outing since April, but he has not allowed more than two runs in July 15th either. You get what you pay for with Kershaw, but I don’t know if he is going to put up a truly dominant line like he has in years past. Kershaw’s ceiling is lower than usual, so I don’t blame you if you fade. However, more of the masses may think like you, making Kershaw less chalky than on a normal short slate.
Eduardo Rodriguez ($9,100): The Blue Jays are only hitting .227 against Rodriguez in 119 at bats with three homers, eight runs, and 29 strikeouts. Those aren’t elite numbers, but they are good enough to consider when Rodriguez has put up 60.9 DraftKings points in three starts against Toronto this year. David Price shut them down last night. I see another dominant start from a lefty tonight against the Jays.
Middle Tier:
Steven Matz ($8,300): It has been an up and down, injury plagued season for Matz, but he has still found a way to pitch well at times. The Marlins are those times. The Fish are hitting just .147 in 34 at bats against Matz with just one run and a staggering 11 strikeouts. Matz racked up 25 DraftKings points on the Marlins the only time he faced them this year. When you factor in his recent hot streak (2.25 ERA in his last four starts), Matz looks underpriced and is a suitable SP1 if you are paying for, say, the Red Sox offense.
UPDATE: AS OF 6AM EASTERN DRAFTKINGS HAS PULLED THE METS/MARLINS GAME DUE TO A DOUBLEHEADER BEING PLAYED. This takes my favorite middle tier pitchers out, so we are basically left with Anderson or two expensive pitchers with no offense. Thanks DK!
Sandy Alcantara ($7,200): Alcantara has only allowed one run in his two major league starts spanning 12 innings. It was to the Mets, but I still see a lot of upside here. Someone will get to him at some point, but I doubt it’s the Mets. Alcantara doesn’t strike out a ton of batters, but he strikes out enough to go far past this price range. Just be aware that he likely wont last more than six innings.
Bargain Pitchers:
Brett Anderson ($6,600): We saw Mengden, a guy who has struggled most of the year, lock down Baltimore last night. Using Anderson doesn’t scare me much. The Orioles are only hitting .176 in 34 at bats with just two runs and eight strikeouts against Anderson. Anderson has struggled some on the road, and the amount of righties in this lineup is cause for concern, but Baltimore can’t get bat on ball against anyone right now. There is very good potential here.
Oakland Athletics vs. Dylan Bundy:
The A’s destroyed Baltimore last night, and it could happen again. Khris Davis and Matt Olson have both homered off of Dylan Bundy. Chapman, Semien, and Lowrie have hit him well enough to throw their hats in the ring. With the way Bundy is struggling, I really do want to stack here. Piscotty, Loreano, Mark Canha, Matt Joyce. Whoever the A’s roll out there, all nine are in play, but it needs to be built around Khrush and Olson.
Boston Red Sox vs. Sam Gaviglio:
Gaviglio hasn’t been nearly as good away from home, so this is the place to go after him. He has a 8.10 ERA in ten road starts. Gaviglio has been decent against Boston, but those stats are skewed by a Skydome start. Again, a Red Sox stack is expensive, but it’s hard to ignore how bad Gaviglio has been on the road. J.D. Martinez has homered off of him twice, so you almost need him with or without a stack. Eduardo Nunez is the only other one to homer against Gaviglio, and he can help minimize the stack price. Moreland, Benintendi, and Devers are particularly appealing because Gaviglio has struggled against lefties. There you go, and affordable Red Sox stack!
Kansas City Royals vs. Stephen Gonsalves:
I wouldn’t blame you for stacking Royals against Stephen Gonsalves, especially if you are paying for pitching, but he hasn’t stayed in games long enough to really destroy him. The Royals certainly tried the first time around. I like Salvy here, but Hunter Dozier, Merrifield, Mondesi, and Jorge Bonifacio are tempting too. That said, I don’t think the Twins throw lefty after lefty out there, so I’m mostly just on Perez, Merrifield, and Mondesi. Those that can hold their own against righty pitching as well.
Minnesota Twins vs. Hunter Fillmyer:
For as much as the Royals got to Gonsalves, the Twins hit Fillmyer pretty hard again as well. Fillmyer has yet to retire Logan Forsythe in four plate appearances, and he is just $2,900. Jake Cave, Miguel Sano, Garver, and Ehire Adrianza all did well against Fillymer as well. You could go with a cheap stack here or a whole game stack. This one could be very interesting. The Vegas line isn’t out on this yet, but both starting pitchers have not pitched well so it should be high.
Seattle Mariners vs. Odrisamer Despaigne:
The Mariners could really feast here. Nelson Cruz and Mitch Haniger are my favorites. So is Jean Segura if he is in the lineup. It’s not limited to them though. Kyle Seager looks great for his price. Finish this off with a hot hitting Robinson Cano and Denard Span.
Top Tier:
The Dodgers hit Austin Gomber pretty well the first time they faced him. The right handed power of Justin Turner and Manny Machado looks good here, but David Freese in his $3,900 glory is the only one to homer off of Gomber so far.
For as solid as Leake has been this year, the Angels have still destroyed him in his career. The Angels are hitting .356 with three homers and 14 runs in 101 at bats with just 14 strikeouts. Trout, Simmons, and Upton have the homers and nine of the 14 RBI. It may be better to just roll with those three, but David Fletcher and Kole Calhoun could really help your lineups as well.
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Middle Tier:
To me, most of the Mets I would want to take a shot with are too expensive. Todd Frazier is priced right and has decent power. I don’t think I want to pay up for Nimmo or Conforto.
Jedd Gyorko has the homer against Kershaw, and Marcell Ozuna looks pretty good as well. I’m not interested in any other Redbirds though.
Bargain Shoppers:
As bad as the Toronto offense looked last night, I’m not really high on any of them. However, Solarte and Kendrys Morales have both homered off of Rodriguez and they are cheap enough to take a one off with.
Brett Anderson doesn’t allow a lot of homers, so I’m not really sure how much I want to go after him here. I like Rickard on the cheap batting leadoff and the potential of Tim Beckham, but that’s about it.
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