With Karlsson in San Jose, the Western Conference only gets tougher
The Western Conference only got tighter with Erik Karlsson off to San Jose, though questions at the top still linger.
Erik Karlsson, by most accounts the best defenseman in the NHL, is headed to the San Jose Sharks for a grand prize of six assets. The Senators sold lower than many thought they might, and San Jose happily jumped all over their opportunity to make the big move they’ve been hoping to make for a while now.
San Jose were a 100-point team last year without Karlsson. They’re older, with 39-year-old Joe Thornton and 33-year-old Brett Burns still crucial pieces, but Karlsson should add five or more points in the standings just by himself. The Sharks know their window is now, and while they failed to land John Tavares in free agency, they had just enough to entice the desperate Senators. This was the splash they’ve wanted, particularly mired in a confoundingly tight division and conference.
The NHL’s west is looking more and more like the NBA’s Western Conference. The concentration of tanking teams in each is notably lower than their eastern counterparts, so the competition for spots will be harder than ever. Only the lowly Vancouver Canucks and perpetually rebuilding Arizona Coyotes aren’t outrightly gunning for playoff spots.
Trends across the sports landscape indicate that teams know mediocrity isn’t the answer. They’ve increasingly either gone straight for the top or sat back and rebuild, as proven by the Canucks, Rangers and Canadiens; generally, this makes it easier to identify good and bad teams. Parity, in this way, is dying.
The mid-tier teams are thus either win-now-ish sides that aren’t quite good enough for the top — think the Stars or the Blue Jackets — or rebuilding teams in advanced stages. The Avalanche and Devils, for example, were focused on the future last year, but made surprising runs to the postseason with young rosters.
San Jose were a clear playoff team last year, but what they had wasn’t enough. The Vegas Golden Knights exposed everyone in hockey when they unexpectedly lapped the supposed best teams in the conference with a ragtag expansion roster. Most clubs will be better, and even if they aren’t, they’re all be close together. It’ll be a dogfight.
With Karlsson adding rare top-end talent, the Sharks should be considered favorites in the Pacific Division. Vegas lost a couple of top-six forwards in James Neal and David Perron on a team that counted on William Karlsson to score 40 goals, which almost certainly won’t happen again. The Kings and Ducks are old.
Calgary improved, but they don’t have a goalie and the trade of young d-man Dougie Hamilton broke up an elite Hamilton-Mark Giordano pairing. The Oilers got a ridiculous season from Connor McDavid last year and still couldn’t break 80 points.
But there are flip sides to all of that. Every team in the division not located in Arizona or British Columbia is actively treading water in the deep end of contention, and either made real improvements — Vegas picked up Paul Stastny and Max Pacioretty to replace Neal and Perron, and the Kings signed Ilya Kovalchuk — or will put Connor McDavid on the ice for 20 minutes a game.
Elevating above the pack is getting more and more difficult to do. Dallas, who have had Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn on their first line for years now, know that from first hand experience, and will be bitterly disappointed to have missed out on Karlsson. The Blues, who had the second-best offseason of any team in the league (behind the Maple Leafs, of course), somehow missed the playoffs last year.
The conference’s top-end squads reside in the Central Division. It’s possible that the Jets and the Predators would be on a crash course towards a meeting in the conference finals if not for the (still dumb) divisional playoff structure. Winnipeg is deep and has real, proven goaltending to count on, and Nashville has the best defensive corps in the league in front of another proven goalie. Pekka Rinne, despite his rough playoff showing, is still Pekka Rinne.
Everyone else in the division has a legitimate shot at stealing the third divisional spot, as well as a wild-card berth or two. St. Louis added a number of nice pieces and should make the playoffs barring some epic goaltending collapse. Minnesota will probably snatch a wild-card slot but then lose quietly in five or six games in the playoffs.
The Avs have Nathan McKinnon and the Blackhawks still have Jonathan Toews, so for two teams trending in different directions, it’s impossible to count them out. Dallas have a new coach and just re-signed Seguin. And yet, they face an uphill climb to even make the playoffs.
That’s the thing about this Western Conference: It’s difficult and crowded, but it’s also weirdly lacking in elite teams. The Lightning, Capitals, Penguins, Bruins and even the Leafs (if you’re optimistic) are all at or around the level of the Jets and Predators. San Jose’s acquisition of Karlsson can only paper over enduring concerns around their depth and the ages of Thornton and Joe Pavelski, damaging the newly-improved Sharks’ case for being a top-tier team.
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We shouldn’t forget that the expansion Golden Knights ended up in the Stanley Cup finals last year. It’s a great story and you won’t stop hearing about it, but it’s hard not to look at it as an indictment of the conference’s quality. These teams that make up the NHL’s toughest conference all succumbed to the Vegas machine, which ran mostly on castaways and reclamation projects.
None of that makes it any less difficult to win in this conference, which lacks the East’s obvious walkovers, nor does it diminish the necessity of San Jose going all in on a player who will be an unrestricted free agent after this season.
It does, however, add further questions of potency and levels of elite in a conference increasingly filled with question marks.