FanDuel EPL DFS Soccer Analysis – Sep 15 2018

We’re back from the international break with a six Premier League game slate on FanDuel. We have the best analysis to help you cash on EPL DFS this weekend!

Is there anyone who like the international breaks? Fans, players and managers all detest a halt to the Premier League season after just four weeks and EPL DFS players hate it the most. Where else are you going to get tilted on a Saturday morning?

Thankfully the EPL is back this Saturday with a very tasty six game slate featuring four of the ‘big six’ sides. Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur play in the early game but the other four all feature on the main FanDuel slate.

Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal all have favorable matchups and are big favorites to win their games. That gives us a ton of high-priced options to sort through and working out a strategy to target and stack the right players.

I have been trying a new strategy in some of my lines in the opening weeks of the season that is proving successful in cash games. The updated scoring system for FanDuel contests (as much as I hate it) has leant itself to a simple strategy that I’ll explain later.

There promises to be a number of changes to the expected lineups on Saturday as players return from international duty, injuries mount and sides prepare for the Champions League kicking up again in midweek. I’ll be on Twitter @davidgatesports to chat through lineups changes and team sheet surprises from 9:00am ET.

Let’s look at who to target this week in FanDuel EPL action!

FanDuel EPL Goalkeepers

The premium keeper on the slate is Chelsea youngster Kepa Arrizabalaga (6000) who is matched up with Cardiff City this week. The Welsh side have managed in one game of their first four back in the Premier League. The Spaniard is a lock for a clean sheet and win bonus.

The other top-level GKs all have question marks over a clean sheet bonus. David de Gea (5500) has the hardest matchup of the elite keepers away to Watford. Ederson (5500) will be a safe bet for a win bonus but Fulham have showed they can grab a goal or two in what will likely be an open game.

Petr Cech (5500) is in a great matchup against Newcastle but his form has been terrible. He has conceded 8 goals in his first four games. Letting in five to Chelsea and Man City is understandable but conceding a brace to Cardiff is a big red flag against the Gunners defense. I simply cannot justify fading Arrizabalaga for only a $500 salary saving.

If you want to save that extra $1k or so in salary then I would plump for Wayne Hennessey (5000) for Crystal Palace. Huddersfield are yet to score at home yet this season and Roy Hodgson will do everything he can to make sure they don’t open their account against Palace.

Jonas Lossl (4500) is a high ceiling value play at bargain price in a game that is predicted to be the lowest scoring on the slate.

FanDuel EPL Defenders

The current scoring system on FanDuel greatly rewards defenders who score or assist. Almost every line that has taken down a GPP this year has hit on a defender who gets on the scoresheet. That is why those players are at a premium and something you now have to consider for GPP lines.

There are two players who I consider worth paying up for on this slate at the defensive position. Marcos Alonso (7500) already has one goal and two assists for the season. His matchup against Cardiff is as good as it gets. The new system under Maurizio Sarri seems to emphasize the full back on the left side.

Shkodran Mustafi (7000) is very effective at set pieces and always a threat. Arsenal may find it hard to break Newcastle down and could need a goal from a corner to decide the game. Mustafi is the man for that job. He also has a very high floor as one of the most consistent defenders on the slate.

A nice bargain play to match with either of that pair is Timothy Fosu-Mensah (4500) who has underwhelmed on DFS this year but is at basement price against Man City. He should make value.

In cash this week I love stacking the Cardiff pair of Sol Bamba (5500) and Bruno Ecuele Manga (5000). They will be under constant pressure away to Chelsea and should rack up defensive stats. They are both $1k under priced to my eye.

FanDuel EPL Midfielders

Over the initial weeks of the season the lines I have had that have done best have faded the top midfielders on the slate. This is largely due to the change in defensive and goalkeeper stats. Gone are the days when you could throw in value bums to pay up at midfield.

You need the right keeper and reliable defenders. Add to that the omission of passing points (that gave midfielders safer floors) and there is much bigger risk at the midfield position than in previous years,

Instead I have been stacking mid-low priced midfields to good reward. My favorite strategy on this slate is to stack the Watford midfield. The Hornets have scored over 50% of their goals this year from the position (by far the most in the EPL) and were excellent at grabbing goals from the midfield last season also. Man Utd showed against Spurs how they can offer up chances to those players.

Will Hughes (7000) and Roberto Pereyra (8000) are the biggest goal threats but I am more cautious on the Argentinian who needs goals/assists to make value. Both Etienne Capoue (6500) and Abdoulaye Doucoure (6000) are capable of finding the net or an assist. This will be my stack in cash and most GPP lines.

One GPP flyer is André Schürrle (6500) who has scored in his last two games. The matchup with Man City is not ideal but should lead to very low ownership with some high upside.

FanDuel EPL Forwards

The best thing about having 4+ of the best clubs on the slate is usually the choice of forwards. You can rub your hands at the goal possibilities. Despite having lots of expensive options there is only one clear strategy for me on this slate.

Man City are going to eviscerate Fulham. I want to have both Sergio Aguero (12500) and Gabriel Jesus (11000) in every line I can squeeze them into. There are often risks with playing both as it is unusual that both go off (or even start). But with all the injuries and question marks over the other City attackers they will lean heavily on this pair.

The other three forwards over $10k don’t appeal to me that much. Alvaro Morata (10000) is straight trash and should be $8k at most. Both Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (10500) and Romelu Lukaku (10500) can get you that goal but I would keep them as GPP plays this week.

If you need to save a little from those expensive starters then I would plump for Alexis Sanchez (9000) in the late game. He has been pushed into wider and defensive positions under Jose Mourinho’s negative system. However he has elite upside. That is if he even gets picked at all!

FanDuel EPL Lineups

Once again: these are sample lineups and are not optimized. The only guarantee I can give you is that I will playing them too. I will also have some lines that are not here. Best thing is to take some of these picks and build your own lineup – especially in GPP – as lineup sharing only reduces the amount you can win.

Sample Lineup: Cash

FWD: Aguero – Man City

FWD: Jesus – Man City

MID: Hughes – Watford

MlD: Doucoure – Watford

MID: Capoue – Watford

DEF: Bamba – Cardiff

DEF: Manga – Cardiff

GK: Arrizabalaga – Chelsea

Sample Lineup: GPP

FWD: Aguero – Man City

FWD: Sanchez – Man Utd

MID: Pereya- Watford

MlD: Doucoure – Watford

MID: Capoue – Watford

DEF: Alonso – Chelsea

DEF: Fosu-Mensah – Fulham

GK: Arrizabalaga – Chelsea

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