MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Thursday September 13
Welcome to the Thursday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Looking back at the split slate MLB DFS action on Wednesday, the goal was to build around pitching which worked perfectly on the early slate with Gerrit Cole and Blake Snell but the combination of Aaron Nola and a Yankees stack that managed 1 run off Jake Odorizzi, let us licking our wounds on the Main Slate.
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Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Starting Pitching Overview:
Today’s six game slate has one obvious name at the top of the pitching choices in Clayton Kershaw ($23.3K) who gets a road start against the Cardinals but I am having a really tough time convincing myself he is worth that kind of investment.
Take the name out of it for a second – if I told you, you had to pay $23.3K for a pitcher who since August 1st, a span of 7 starts, has a 23% K rate and a 37.5% hard contact rate – would you really be so quick to lock him in as an SP1? I think the name value alone on Kershaw plus his strong game log will drive ownership here on a short slate so I want to fade him – but for who?
Eduardo Rodriguez ($18K) is the next most expensive arm with a home start against a Blue Jays team he has performed well against this season and steps to the mound as a massive -270 favorite. In three starts this season against Toronto, E-Rod has racked up 15, 20 and 27 fantasy points with 15 K’s over 18 innings and while the fantasy points have been there, this feels like a spot where you are counting on getting the win from him in order to even remotely hit value at this elevated tag.
I had interest in Steven Matz but with the double-header getting pushed to today, Matz will take the mound for the early game instead of his scheduled Main Slate start.
Brett Anderson looks to have a great match-up against the Orioles but the left-hander is coming off nerve issues in his arm and threw only 45 pitches in his last simulated game (he claims it is closer to 80 with his warm-up pitches for what it is worth). With the A’s having their sights set on a postseason run, I can imagine them pushing a key cog in their rotation on his first start back in a highly winnable game after he was dealing with nerve issues in his arm.
As much as I want to pass on Kershaw, I honestly do not think I can as I just simply do not see viable pivots – honestly, finding two arms on this six game slate is really difficult and you are going to have to make some ugly decisions….which leads me to….
PLEASE NOTE – FantasyDraft is removing the second game of the Mets/Marlins doubleheader from the slate.
Jason Vargas ($9.9K). This pains me to write – as a Mets fan, I can’t even believe I am somehow recommending him – but here we are. With Matz now pitching the day game, it means Vargas gets the night slate and at a price point under $10K, at home, against a Marlins team playing the tail-end of a double-header – I mean, he can’t possibly screw this up – right?
Vargas has been a mess for most of the year – but in the second half, to his credit, he has flashed some really strong games. Prior to a typical Vargas performance against a right-handed murderer’s row in the Dodgers, Vargas had actually been pitching well – with his two previous starts against the Cubs and Nationals going for 22 and 32 fantasy points on the back of 14 K’s, 2 walks and only 1 ER in 11.2 innings.
Vargas faced the Marlins back in May in his only outing against them and went 5 shutout innings with 7 K’s for 27 fantasy points. Do I feel good about this play as a stand alone – NO, of course not, Vargas stinks – but in the context of this slate – playing him is the key to locking in Clayton Kershaw AND getting the best bats. I cannot believe we have a slate where Jason Vargas is the key to anything – I look forward to using the shoveling money into a fire GIF around 8PM EST tonight.
MLB DFS – Top Hitting Spots:
One of the reasons initially I was hesitant to use Kershaw and the salary that went along with him, is that there are two clear high collar, high upside offenses I felt were a priority on this short slate with the Red Sox and Athletics both in what appears to be great offensive situations.
Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez have to be considered two of, if not the two best, bats on this slate against Sam Gaviglio and the Jays as we are getting two hitters with .260+ ISO marks against RHP in Fenway where the Red Sox have a team total approaching 6. The biggest challenge with the Red Sox stack is the price point as you have four batters on FantasyDraft priced over $10k which means this is not a stack you can build while also getting Kershaw so I would forego the Benintendi/Boegarts plays and instead focus on getting the two best bats in the line-up in Mookie and JD.
The Athletics seem like the better stack on this slate against Dylan Bundy as their price points make them easier to stack up and Bundy has much more blow-up-ability (if that is a word) than Gaviglio does in my opinion. Bundy has given up 6 or more ER in four of his last six starts and has surrendered multiple homeruns in five of his last nine outings.
On the season, the former Polk High superstar has surrendered a .250+ ISO to hitters from both sides of the plate with over a 45% fly ball rate which has led to a 2.22 HR/9 rate. Camden Yards is the best park for power on this slate and this A’s line-up is loaded with bats that can make Bundy pay. Khris Davis, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman and Jed Lowrie all have 43% or higher fly ball rates against RHP this season with elevated hard contact rates – exactly the combination you want against a fly-ball arm like Bundy.
So if you want Kershaw with Mookie/JD and the A’s heavy hitters, you are going to need some cheap plays to fill out the rest of your line-up.
Jose Fernandez ($5.8K) will continue to be a lock and load play for me at this price range – and with back to back days with an HR and now facing Mike Leake – this is a do not get cute spot. Take the free square folks.
Kyle Seager and Mike Zunino continue to be a low-priced mini-stack you can employ at the bottom of the Mariners order and tonight against Odrisamer Despaigne, I think you can go right back to them tonight. Seager on the season has a .181 ISO against RHP this season while Zunino has a .231 ISO mark against right-handed pitching in 2018.
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
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SP: Clayton Kershaw ($23.3K)
SP: Jason Vargas ($9.9K)
IF: Jose Fernandez ($5.8K)
IF: Matt Olson ($9K)
IF: Matt Chapman ($8.9K)
OF: Khris Davis ($9.7K)
OF: Mookie Betts ($11.1K)
OF: J.D. Martinez ($10.1K)
UTIL: Kyle Seager ($6.3K)
UTIL: Mike Zunino ($5.9K)
Slate Overview: In this roster build example I was able to get the best arm on the slate in Clayton Kershaw and stack the best bats from the top two stacks in the Red Sox and A’s – sounds like a slam dunk line-up to me! Now listen, it means taking on some ugly plays – with Jason Vargas being the key to unlocking this combination – but so is MLB DFS, especially late in the season. I have 12 hours to talk myself out of using Vargas – let’s see if I can stick with it! Good luck all!
PLEASE NOTE – FantasyDraft is removing the second game of the Mets/Marlins doubleheader from the slate.
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