NFL DFS DraftKings Week 2 Lineup Advice
By Ben McDaniel
What a crazy week 1! Anyone care to guess who had a Fitzpatrick/Evans stack entry in the DraftKings Millionaire Contest last Sunday? Hint: It wasn’t me because I actually changed course and removed them in favor of a different stack just before lock. I’m still not totally ready to talk about it. My biggest piece of advice this week? Do your research, but trust your gut! The purpose of this article is to equip you with information that will help you formulate your NFL DFS lineups for Sunday. I share some of my favorite plays, along with some thoughts concerning a few other popular players as well. Be sure to follow me on Twitter @BenMcD_Sports as I’ll be sharing updates to my top plays as more information is released closer to kickoff! Thanks for reading, NFL DFS DraftKings Week 2 Lineup Advice!
NFL DFS DraftKings: Quarterbacks
Tom Brady NE @ JAX $6,500
It’s rare to find a week when Brady is outside of the top 5 in NFL DFS quarterback pricing, but this is one of those weeks. Brady was his typical elite self in week 1 against Houston, completing 26 of 39 attempts for 277 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. So why the $700 drop in salary? The Patriots have a road matchup with a formidable Jaguars defense in week 2. This is actually a matchup of last year’s AFC Championship game in which Brady threw for 290 yards and 2 touchdowns against the league’s top passing defense. In week 9 of last season, the Patriots went on the road to play a tenacious Broncos defensive unit, and Brady responded with 266 yards 3 touchdowns. All this is to say, Tom Brady is matchup proof. I expect New England to nickel and dime their way up and down the field on Sunday. This is one of the few weeks in which you might have be able to grab Brady at a somewhat low ownership.
DeShaun Watson HOU @ TEN $6,300
What a difference a week makes. Watson dropped from being the 3rd most expensive QB in week 1, to being the 9th most expensive QB in week 2. Watson admittedly struggled against New England, calling his own performance, “terrible.” There is reason for optimism leading up to week 2 though. Will Fuller, who is one of Houston’s top playmakers, missed the Patriots game due to injury, but is set to return to the field against Tennessee this week. DeAndre Hopkins has historically been a Titan killer which only boosts Watson’s chances for a bounce back performance this Sunday. It was also encouraging to see Watson rush for 40 yards on 8 carries last week, proving that he still possesses his trademark athleticism even coming off of an ACL tear in 2017. We know the upside is there. Look for this to be a “get right” game where Watson proves he’s still among the league’s most explosive weapons.
Patrick Mahomes KC @ PIT $6,100
Does this salary seem way too low to anyone else? Mahomes just put up a ridiculous 28.3 fantasy points in a game where Kareem Hunt and Travis Kelce combined to only catch 1 pass for 6 yards. Of course, it’s hard to find time to complete dump offs and short passes when Tyreek Hill is seemingly scoring every time he touches the ball. This game looks like an excellent matchup for the athletic Mahomes, considering the Steelers defense just allowed Tyrod Taylor to scamper for 77 yards and 1 touchdown. With his upside and this low price point, Mahomes is going to be one of the chalkier NFL DFS plays of the week.
Blake Bortles NE @ JAX $5,400
After exiting last week’s game with a hamstring injury, Leonard Fournette is questionable for week 2. While some reports say he’s likely to play, hamstring injuries are tricky and Jacksonville could choose to play it safe for one more week. Even if Fournette is held out of Sunday’s game, you shouldn’t be worried about Bortles experiencing any negative effects from missing his star running back. In fact, the complete opposite is true. While the sample size isn’t huge, consider these Bortles splits from 2017.
- 3 game average WITHOUT Fournette – 21/31, 305 yards, 1.6 touchdowns
- 13 game average WITH Fournette – 19/33, 213 yards, 1.2 touchdowns
- Home – 23/35, 268 yards, 1.9 touchdowns
- Road – 17/30, 193 yards, .75 touchdowns
At only $5,400, Bortles is one of the cheapest NFL DFS quarterbacks available on DraftKings in week 2. To hit 3x value, he’ll only need to secure 16.2 points. He exceeded that number in 6 out of 8 home games last season. I also love the Jags QB this Sunday for the exceptional upside he possesses. Bortles scored over 27 points four separate times last season. For the sake of comparison, the #1 scoring QB from last year, Russell Wilson scored over 27 points five times in 2017. Tom Brady accomplished that feat three times. Drew Brees actually had 0 games with at least 27 points on DraftKings. Even if Fournette ends up playing, the home/road splits are impressive enough that I’ll start Bortles with confidence this week. If Fournette is out, Bortles is a lock for me.
NFL DFS DraftKings: Running Backs
Alvin Kamara CLE @ NO $9,500
How would you feel if you were the Cleveland Browns? They just got torched by Steelers “backup” running back, James Conner, and next up on the schedule is perhaps the most explosive player in the entire NFL. Kamara was just absurd in week 1, finishing with 46.1 points on DraftKings. What’s even more ridiculous is that he managed to do that on only 17 total touches. I would expect his carries to increase from the 8 he had in week 1, while his receptions might decrease if New Orleans isn’t trying to play catch up all day. (When was the last time a team had to play catch up against a Cleveland squad that didn’t include Lebron James?) Kamara is the focal point of the Saints offense and will almost certainly be one of the position’s top scorers in week 2. All that being said, $9,500 is an extremely high price to pay for anyone, let alone a running back who has yet to receive more than 12 carries in an NFL game.
David Johnson ARI @ LA $8,200
Johnson wasn’t a disaster last week, but when you spend $8,800 on a running back, you really need more than 17.7 points. His salary has dropped to a reasonable $8,200 this week, and I’m officially interested. Scoring opportunities might be hard to come by in a weak Cardinals offense, but with his receiving ability, Johnson should never suffer from a negative game script. In week 1, the Rams allowed the Raiders to finish with 95 rushing yards on 4.1 yards per carry, and behind a big performance from Jalen Richard, Raiders running backs were able to combine for 13 catches and 60 yards. The volume should be there, and I like David Johnson quite a bit at this discounted price.
James Conner KC @ PIT $6,700
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that if DraftKings had known Le’Veon Bell‘s holdout would extend into the regular season, James Conner’s salary would have been much higher than $4,500 for week 1. Due to a 38.2 point explosion, Conner’s salary jumped all the way up to $6,700 this week. You know what? I still think that’s way too cheap. Do you know how many Steelers running backs logged a single carry or caught a single pass in week 1? None! Conner received 100% of the workload. 31 carries and 5 catches is an unbelievable amount of volume. There’s also the fact that he’ll be facing a soft Chiefs defense that just allowed Chargers running backs to combine for 123 rushing yards on 5.6 yards per carry while catching 14 passes for 189 yards a touchdown. With another great performance, Conner’s salary might finally jump up to the $7,500-$8,000 range it probably belongs in.
Kareem Hunt KC @ PIT $6,200
One of my initial reactions to seeing the salaries for week 2 was to think Hunt’s price seemed way too low. After a few days to mull that over, I still say he’s too cheap. Hunt’s big day was spoiled when Mahomes threw two touchdown passes from 1 yard out in week 1. That’s not going to be an every week thing. You know what probably will be an every week thing? The Chiefs offense scoring a ton of points, and the presence of Tyreek Hill on the field practically guarantees that Hunt will never see a stacked box. This game has the highest over/under of the day at 53. Those points will have to come from someone, and Kareem Hunt is a great bet to bounce back in week 2.
Dion Lewis HOU @ TEN $5,000
49-20. Why are those numbers significant? They are the snap totals seen by Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry in week 1. Henry finished with a sluggish statline of 10 carries, 26 yards to go along with 1 reception for 5 yards. Compare that to an impressive Titans debut by Lewis in which he finished with 16 carries, 75 yards, 1 touchdown along with 5 receptions for 35 yards. For some reason, Lewis is still the cheaper of the two Tennessee running backs. Delanie Walker going down with an ankle injury is a huge blow to the Titans passing game, and others are going to have to fill the void in his absence. Lewis will continue to be peppered with targets and in NFL DFS DraftKings PPR format, pass catching running backs who consistently see 15+ carries are worth their weight in gold. Lewis’ former teammate James White caught a touchdown against this Houston defense last week, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Lewis finds his way into the end zone again this week as well.
James White NE @ JAX $4,500
Speak of the devil. James White could be a very busy man in week 2 due to a mess of a situation at the running back position in New England. Jeremy Hill was just lost to a torn ACL, Sony Michael is still trying to return from a knee injury, and Rex Burkhead was just reported to be in concussion protocol as of Wednesday afternoon. Jacksonville actually did an admirable job limiting Giants running backs to 4 catches for 31 yards last week, but if White’s snap count is increased on Sunday, I trust that Brady will be able to find him enough to make him a nice value at $4,500.
NFL DFS DraftKings: Wide Receivers
Antonio Brown KC @ PIT $8,800
This game has all the makings of a shootout, and there isn’t a person alive who can cover Antonio Brown, let alone someone on the Chiefs roster. By Brown’s standards, he had a rather pedestrian week 1 with only 9 catches, 91 yards, and 1 touchdown. That’s pretty much the floor for the best wideout in the league. Not much else needs to be said. Big Ben is at home in what Vegas expects to be the highest scoring game of the week. What’s not to love?
DeAndre Hopkins HOU @ TEN $8,000
Hopkins has a juicy matchup this Sunday that he should be able to exploit. Tennessee is allowing the 5th most points to opposing wide receivers, and Hopkins will be the main beneficiary of what I expect to be a bounce back game from DeShaun Watson. Hopkins has also proven to be a Titan killer ever since he entered the league in 2013. In 10 career games against Tennessee, Hopkins averages nearly 7 catches, 100 yards, and .6 touchdowns per game. Enjoy his $300 drop in salary before it jumps back up for week 3.
Golden Tate DET @ SF $6,500
I’m really not sure why Tate’s salary dropped $400 from last week. He was one of the few Lions to play well on Monday night, finishing with 7 catches, 79 yards, and 1 touchdown. While Golladay showed out with a 100+ yard game, Tate’s 15 targets proved he is still Stafford’s most trusted option in the passing game. The 49ers just allowed Vikings slot receiver Adam Thielen to haul in 6 catches for 102 yards, and Tate has a good chance to replicate those numbers on Sunday. While it’s unlikely Tate draws another 15 targets, he should be able to be more efficient with a motivated Stafford ready to put week 1 behind him.
Josh Gordon CLE @ NO $5,800
Gordon was one 17 yard touchdown grab away from turning in a goose egg in week 1, despite playing 69 of 89 possible snaps. I wouldn’t expect a similar performance in week 2. Cleveland travels to New Orleans this Sunday for a matchup against a defense that just allowed “Fitzmagic” to happen. Seriously. It’s Thursday morning right now and I think the Saints are still being scored on. In week 1, Mike Evans broke loose for 7 catches, 147 yards, and 1 touchdown while DeSean Jackson finished with 5 catches, 146 yards, and 2 touchdowns. The Browns officially named Josh Gordon as a starter this week, and he should respond with big time numbers. This guy is every bit as talented as the DeAndre Hopkins and Julio Jones of the world, and could soon be priced like it. Enjoy the NFL DFS discount while you can.
Devin Funchess CAR @ ATL $4,700
Atlanta’s defense is more banged up than the 1992 Ford Taurus that’s in the junkyard just down the street from my house. Falcons’ safety Keanu Neal and linebacker Deion Jones were placed on I.R. after week 1, and it would be foolish not to expect a decline in their overall team performance. Funchess experienced moderate success against the Falcons last year, finishing with 5 catches for 86 yards in week 9 and 2 catches for 48 yards and a touchdown in week 17. He might never be a sexy name, but he’s primed to see extra targets come his way with Greg Olsen out with a back injury. Funchess isn’t a great GPP play due to a limited ceiling, but he seems like a safe play in cash games where he’ll only need 14.1 points to hit 3x value.
Sammy Watkins KC @ PIT $4,600
If you want to get some lower-owned exposure to this game, Watkins might be your best option. NFL DFS players are going to be all over the high-priced guys, and for good reason. Big Ben and the Steelers are 5 point favorites at home, and if Kansas City is forced into a situation where they have to play from behind all day, Watkins could really pay off at this price point. As teams are forced to divert even more attention to try to contain Tyreek Hill, Watkins should find himself with more and more room to operate. I wouldn’t feel comfortable playing him in cash games, but he makes for a great high upside tournament play.
Josh Doctson IND @ WAS $4,000
If Josh Doctson is ever going to become the weapon Washington thought they were getting with their first round pick in 2016, this would seem like a great week to get things rolling. Doctson led all Redskins receivers in playing time last Sunday, logging 70 out of 79 offensive snaps. Alex Smith only looking his way 3 times was probably just a product of All-Pro cornerback, Patrick Peterson locking him down. The Indianapolis Colts don’t have a Patrick Peterson. Heck, they don’t have a Patrick Star. Luck should be able to put up enough points that this game actually has some sneaky shootout potential. Look for Alex Smith to try to get on the same page as his #1 wide receiver this week.
NFL DFS DraftKings: Tight Ends
Zach Ertz PHI @ TB $6,100
Lost in the fact that New Orleans allowed 48 points last week, is that Tampa Bay allowed 40. It’s hard to imagine that Foles could play much worse than he did in week 1, and Ertz would benefit greatly from even slight improvement. I know many people like to pay down and save on salary at the tight end position, but Ertz has too solid of a matchup this week to ignore. Ertz’s high floor and almost matchless ceiling makes him playable in both cash and tournament games in week 2.
George Kittle DET @ SF $3,800
Having just played Monday night, Detroit is coming off a short week and has to fly to the west coast for a matchup with San Francisco this Sunday. That sounds like a recipe for another disaster from the Lions defense. Jimmy Garoppolo predictably struggled against a strong Vikings defense, but the road gets easier starting this week. Expectations for Jimmy G to share a strong connection with Kittle in 2018 were substantiated in week 1 when he looked his way 9 times, completing 5 passes for 90 yards to the tight end. If you don’t want to spend up, Kittle is one of the better options.
Jonnu Smith HOU @ TEN $3,100
It’s put up or shut up time for Jonnu Smith. The 2017 3rd round pick has been hyped as an uber-athletic weapon for over a year, and with Delanie Walker out for the season, Smith finally has a chance to prove it. On paper, this looks like a great matchup. However, it’s hard to tell if Houston struggles against opposing tight ends or if they just struggle against opposing tight ends named Rob Gronkowski. Smith is going to be a popular play, and while he offers considerable upside, there’s another tight end option who is slightly cheaper that I prefer in week 2.
Ricky Seals-Jones ARI @ LAR $2,900
Did you watch the Raiders/Rams game on Monday night? If so, you probably have the image of Jared Cook running all over the field burned into your memory. Next up for the Rams defense is the Arizona Cardinals. Ricky Seals-Jones was a hot name coming into the year but like the rest of the Cardinals, got off to a slow start in week 1. Maybe that bumps his ownership down this week? Point is, he played 49 of 53 snaps and is going to a big part of any success Arizona is able to have on offense this year. The Cardinals might keep this game close for a while, but eventually the Rams should take enough of a lead that Arizona has to play from behind. If Fitzgerald and the other Cardinals receivers are held in check by the deepest set of cornerbacks in the league, Seals-Jones will be leaned on heavy in this one.
NFL DFS DraftKings: Defense/Special Teams
Los Angeles Chargers DST $3,600
Is there a single person reading this article who doesn’t expect Josh Allen to struggle with turnovers this year? The Bills nightmare of an offensive line is matched only by their equally horrific receiving corps. Rookie quarterbacks typically struggle with holding onto the ball too long, and that was one of Josh Allen’s main hiccups in the preseason.
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The Chargers DST scored -3 points last week against Kansas City last week, and maybe that will keep ownership lower than it should be. They are the safest DST play of the day and provide plenty of upside to help take down a GPP.
Denver Broncos DST $3,300
After a tough loss to the Rams on Monday night, things don’t get any easier for Derek Carr and the Raiders in week 2. They have a short week to get ready for a road matchup against a Denver defense that is coming off of a game in which they recorded 6 sacks, 2 interceptions, and a forced fumble. If the Broncos can grab an early lead and force Oakland to become one-dimensional, this could be a bloodbath.
Houston Texans DST $2,600
Do you enjoy a good narrative? How about the Houston defense squaring off for the first time against their former coordinator, Mike Vrabel? The Texans will undoubtedly miss starting cornerback Kevin Johnson who was just placed on I.R. due to a head injury, but Tennessee doesn’t exactly have world beaters at the wide receiver position anyways. At $2,600, all it takes is a big play or two from a guy like J.J. Watt or Jadeveon Clowney to be a great value.
Next. DFS NFL Week 2 Game by Game Breakdown. dark