NFL WEEK 2: Building The Case To Play Josh Allen In DraftKings

After Bills (0-1) Head Coach Sean McDermott‘s announcement on Wednesday of his plans to start Josh Allen this Sunday at home vs. the Chargers (0-1), the future became a expedited reality for the Buffalo faithful. The DFS world now has to decide if there is value in playing the rookie who many considered to be a long term project.

The 7th pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, Josh Allen, will get the nod this weekend after an abysmal display by Week 1 starter, Nathan Peterman. Allen did take over late in the third quarter against the Ravens but the Bills were already down 40-0 at that time. In his short appearance, he only completed 6 of 15 pass attempts for 74 yards and a 33.9 QBR but that was certainly overshadowed by Peterman and the fact that he was only able to accumulate 24 yards (24!) over 18 pass attempts while throwing 2 interceptions and posting a 0.7 QBR.

The Ravens also were able to get to both quarterbacks with ease in Week 1, registering 3 sacks on both Peterman and Allen and forcing 11 QB hurries. The Bills O-Line did Josh Allen no favors with a prime example here as center Ryan Groy ends up on his backside. As you can see in this clip and throughout the game, Allen did show signs of good pocket presence and understands when to pull the ripcord to avoid negative yardage;

After signing AJ McCarron in the off season, it seemed as if he would be the guy to bridge the Bills from Tyrod Taylor to Josh Allen. There were rumors of Allen’s draft position from #1 all the way down to #10 as the draft approached and despite his superior natural talents, he is very clearly a work-in-progress. By trading McCarron as the season approached for merely a fifth-round pick, that made it pretty clear that the Bills have quicker intentions with Josh Allen. I wouldn’t find it hard to believe if they continue to throw Peterman out there against elite teams to take the beating and slowly craft Allen with softer match ups and late game appearances.

Despite this unstable formula brewing in Buffalo, I do see some value moving forward in the young rocket-armed rookie. On the next page, I will tell you why you should add Josh Allen to your fleet of QBs heading into Week 2. 

This was one of the handful of sharp opportunities that Josh Allen and his receivers had that could have changed the tone of the Josh Allen experiment in Week 1. The every growing Kelvin Benjamin let this 2nd & goal bullet pass from Allen ricochet off his chest and cost Allen his first career TD pass.

In the first tweet, you can see that he is still adjusting to full grown men with adult children swarming him in a pocket that he had no reason to trust. It may have been the Ravens effect or the woes of the O-Line in Week 1 but this is something that can certainly be fixed. In the second tweet, you can see his potential for great pocket presence and his always-ready arm. He also showed flashes of agility when rushing out of the pocket that I think he will be able to utilize with his size (see Cam Newton).

Those jumping to conclusions on Josh Allen after week one are crazy.This was a week where he entered the first game of his career in the second half of a blowout game against the Ravens in Baltimore. Him not soiling himself was good enough for me to give him a shot.

DRAFTKINGS and DFS

Josh Allen is $4600 this week in the Roman Fantasy Football Millionaire contest on DraftKings. Based on the results from last week , Josh Allen will only have to produce 15.2 DK Points to hit value in Week 2. The scoring results on DK from last week were abnormally high meaning somewhere between 12-14 DK Points may get the job done as well.

His opponent, the Los Angeles Chargers, are expected to be a stout defense this season on the coatails of Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa. With Bosa likely out again in Week 2, they are nowhere near as terrifying. The Chargers engaged in a shootout with the Chiefs and lost at the hands of Tyreek Hill and Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes, who we will call a red-shirt freshman, tore the Chargers apart for 256 yards (on only 55% of his passes completed) with 4 TDs and 21 rushing yards. Mahomes didn’t have a stellar day as far as accuracy was concerned and only completed 15 passes despite registering 28.3 DK Points.

I definitely believe Mahomes is a better talent than Allen, at least at this time. However, they definitely have similar qualities. They are relatively mobile QBs with mountain clearing arm power and the affinity to throw the long ball. Clearly this recipe worked vs. the Chargers in week 1, why not a version of the same in week 2?

Allen was unable to utilize his greatest weapon on the field in LeSean McCoy in week one who only had 22 rushing yards and 1 catch for -1 yard. This was partially due to the game script but he definitely wasn’t part of the offense in Week 1. If McCoy can provide any sort of safety blanket for Allen, this should increase his confidence ten fold and will help with Allen’s stat line being able to get chunk yardage out of the backfield.

Finally, Josh Allen heads into this week as the announced and prepared starter. This is his job to lose and his team is officially behind him. He is also heading to Buffalo in a regular season game for the first time in his career. This is their new QB, you better believe they will have his back. It is never easy to ward off Bills Mafia.

He shouldn’t be the only QB you use in your lineups this week but don’t miss out on the value. Being only $4600, Allen will allow you to go get guys like Gurley, Kamara, Thomas, etc. without sacrificing the rest of the roster. He will also be one of the least owned in DraftKings, so you will fly up the leader board if he over performs.