25-under-25: Answering the biggest questions about the NBA’s young talent
The Step Back is rolling out its 25-under-25 list over this week. Follow along with our rankings of the top 25 NBA players under the age of 25. Here, our staff discusses some of the big questions from this year’s list.
Which players on the 25-under-25 list will make us look like morons for ranking them too high or too low?
Micah Wimmer (@micahwimmer): I included him in my piece about the biggest disappointments, and accordingly he failed to even make an appearance on our 25-under-25 list, but I still hold out hope for D’Angelo Russell capitalizing on his boundless potential. In his first two seasons, he suffered from being on a Lakers team that didn’t really care to have him very much despite drafting him second overall. And last season, he struggled with a knee injury that limited him to just 48 games. Nevertheless, he still has a silky smooth, honestly quite lovely, release and a great feel for the game that allows him to find the open man on possessions where he’s not looking for his own shot. Plus, on a Nets team largely bereft of scoring options, he will have every chance to succeed — or at least every chance to score a ton of points.
I also believe that Porzingis may prove to be too low, assuming that he returns to his All-Star form when he come back from injury around midseason. Finally, Julius Randle has quietly improved a ton over his three full seasons in the league, becoming a stellar rebounder and reliable scorer in the post, averaging 19 and 9 on 55 percent shooting after the All Star Break. While he may not get as many looks next to Anthony Davis, it’s just as possible that having a great player alongside him in the paint may free things up for him even more. I think Randle should have been higher to begin with, and this upcoming season, he may finally earn the acclaim he’s been denied.
Bryan Toporek (@btoporek): If Kristaps Porzingis doesn’t have any long-term side effects from his ACL tear, he’s at least five spots too low. (We ranked these players based on expectations for the 2018-19 season, but he was No. 5 in last year’s version of these rankings.) And though I’m still a resident of Myles Turner Island, his disappointing 2017-18 campaign raised some red flags. If he doesn’t bounce back this year, we’ll regret having him ranked ahead of Brandon Ingram, Julius Randle and Lauri Markkanen.
Kane Pitman (@mkebucksaus): Lonzo Ball somehow managed to have an underrated rookie campaign in LA. Despite the wild shooting at times, Ball’s IQ was clearly on display, and he just understands how to play the game in the way that belies his age. The addition of LeBron should only amplify his effectiveness, with only a slither of space required for the young point guard to survey the floor and make the correct decision. I would not be at all surprised if we see Lonzo crack the top 10 in 12 months time.
It could be the contract that’s clouding my judgement here, but Aaron Gordon would appear to be a guy you’d see dropping in 12 months. It could also be the total dysfunction at play with the Orlando Magic franchise, but I just don’t see a clear path or direction for Gordon or his squad. I hope I’m wrong, but paying $21 million for a guy that has failed to play more than 60 games in three out of his four seasons sends a shiver down my spine.
Ben Ladner (@bladner_): Depending on how Denver’s season goes, slotting Jamal Murray at 15 could look like a mistake in a few months. He isn’t quite a true lead guard, but he could be an elite shooter, and his skill set fits perfectly next to Nikola Jokić, who functionally acts as a point guard much of the time. In that context, Murray is free to cut, spot up and come off screens for triples, and he’s good enough with the ball in his hands to act as a secondary playmaker to Jokić and keep the offense running when he’s off the floor.
I think Aaron Gordon at 16 could look like an overvaluation by the end of this season. Despite inking a rich new deal over the offseason, his fit with the rest of Orlando’s core is complicated, and it’s possible that Jonathan Isaac and Mo Bamba both become more crucial to the Magic’s long-term future. Orlando will be terrible next year anyway, and if we’re evaluating players based on short-term value, I don’t know that Gordon is markedly more useful than someone like Marcus Smart, OG Anunoby or Brandon Ingram (who is probably a few spots too low on this list as well).
Eric Spyropoulos (@EricSpyrosNBA): While Aaron Gordon did well to improve his shooting last season, given the quality of young players behind him in the rankings and Orlando’s inability to put Gordon in a position to succeed, we will likely look back on his ranking of 16 as an overvaluation. Gordon is a dynamic player that can contribute on both ends of the floor, but in order for his ability to be maximized, the Magic need to surround him with more consistent playmakers and shooters and let Gordon take on some additional playmaking duties, especially in transition. However, given the team’s depth in the frontcourt, Gordon projects to play a lot with Jonathan Isaac and Mo Bamba, who could end up being the two main pieces of Orlando’s rebuild moving forward.
Jonathan Macri (@JCMacriNBA): I get why Jayson Tatum is seventh — I mean, it’s not like any of the guys ahead of him are ridiculous inclusions in the top six. That said, we’re going to look pretty silly when the Celtics are playing into late May — again — and Tatum is their best player — again. If they make it to the Finals and he’s the reason they’re in the series (not inconceivable), then silly doesn’t begin to describe how short we’ll have sold a 20-year-old that’s as untouchable as any player in the league.
Hunter Kuffel (@notgatherer): When August of 2019 rolls around, my guess is we’ll have been disappointed by Myles Turner’s lack of a leap for the third year in a row. After a rookie season crackling with potential, Turner has yet to show that he can adapt his game to fully unleash the unicorn within.
Last season, there were too many pick-and-pop opportunities that ended with a 20-footer instead of a 3, and Turner didn’t seem to be any more comfortable with contact than he was in 2016. I hope he proves me wrong. As far as too low on the list? Let me just mention a certain Nordic titan who hit more 3-pointers in his rookie season than anyone of his height in NBA history.
Kris Fenrich (@dancingwithnoah): Shocked is an overstatement, but I was surprised by our collective rank of Lonzo Ball. We had him 23rd overall behind Marcus Smart, OG Anunoby, Julius Randle, and Aaron Gordon. I like those players well enough, but Lonzo’s defensive awareness and instincts, and ability to broadly impact the game beyond traditional box score stats (which he tacks up as well) are already exceptional. I am concerned about his ability to stay healthy and on the court, but this feels low.
Poor Aaron Gordon. He checked in at 16th and I think our over-rank of him is representative of how hard of a player he is to gauge. He looks the part and occasionally even plays the part, but due to Orlando’s utterly imbalanced lineup, he’s forced into the role of first option and part-time distributor. Through four seasons, Gordon hasn’t proved to be a good fit for either of those roles and yet Orlando, with its merry go round of coaches, continues to jam him in there. In another reality, the Magic didn’t match the Pacers offer sheet and Gordon is thriving as a third banana in Indiana while being accurately ranked 16th.
Brandon Jefferson (@Jefferson_Hoops): The homie Dario Saric. Saric isn’t cemented for potential superstardom down the line like some names listed ahead of him on this year’s 25-under-25 list, but he has proven to be a better player than some of his peers who secured a higher spot on this list. Saric is definitely playing in the shadows of Ben Simmons as a 6-foot-10 playmaker in Philadelphia, however, the shadow isn’t big enough for everyone to continuously underrate just what Saric can bring to the table on his own. By season’s end, 24 will look horrible for Saric in comparison to others on this lis.
Which player has the biggest opportunity to move up this season for next year’s list?
Toporek: Lonzo Ball. LeBron James has a habit of lifting up everyone around him, and I fully expect the same to happen with Lonzo. James’ ability to command the offense will allow Lonzo to work off-ball more, where he can thrive as a cutter and slasher. He, James and Rajon Rondo are going to be a three-man factory of hockey assists, too. If he improves upon his middling shooting efficiency, Lonzo should have no trouble cracking the top 15 in next year’s rankings (and that may be selling him short).
Pitman: Luka Doncic — 13th makes sense for now, with many skeptics still questioning just how great his impact will be at the next level. But I am not one of those, I would’ve taken him at No. 1 and the Mavericks project to be one of the more entertaining league pass teams getting around. Lob City has moved to Texas, and you can expect DeAndre Jordan to pick up where he left off when CP3 jumped to Houston.
Ladner: I anticipate that Luka Dončić will finish five or six spots higher on next year’s 25-under-25 that he did on this year’s. Evaluating rookies against their more experienced peers is always tricky, and we rightfully tend to be more conservative in predicting their value. But Dončić could be a transcendent offensive talent, and should be ready to make some sort of positive impact in Year 1.
If Ingram proves a dependable second option next to LeBron, he ought to vault into the top 10 of next year’s list. I’m also optimistic that Jaylen Brown will move up after a strong third year.
Spyropoulos: A couple of guards in Lonzo Ball, Jamal Murray and Luka Doncic jump out as players that could improve their ranking for next year’s list. Ball is a very dynamic player that is a good defender and playmaker. If his shooting improves, he should jump up on the list given his ability to rebound, run in transition, and lead an offense. Murray could breakout this season and average 20 points per game. With his shooting ability and his comfort playing alongside Nikola Jokic, he is the guard that projects the closest to having a Steph Curry like impact on offense in terms of his ability to take over games. Finally, Doncic projects to be in an ideal situation in Dallas, especially with the team providing him with a quality rim-running big in DeAndre Jordan. Given his skill set and how the modern NBA is favoring playmaking wings that can play multiple positions (and be capable shooters), Doncic should jump into the top ten on the list this time next year.
Macri: Porzingis is the easy answer, because if he comes back, looks like himself, and a big fish signs in NY as a result, he’ll be a 24-year-old MVP candidate on a borderline contender. That said, I’ll go with Doncic. He can single-handedly turn Dallas into a destination franchise, and they have a boatload of cap space next summer. His impact could be league-altering.
Kuffel: Luka Doncic is a great answer, but in the spirit of originality, I’ll go with someone else. Donovan Mitchell boasted scoring prowess and defensive competence beyond his years last season, and the Jazz are set to be even more of a headache for teams this time around.
Other than the fact that his Rookie of the Year argument was essentially an attempt to disqualify his main competitor, Mitchell was fearless last season, going toe to toe against a veteran-heavy Thunder team in last year’s playoffs and winning. After another year of growth on both ends, Mitchell could easily be in the top five or higher.
Fenrich: I’m torn between a pair of players recovering from injuries: Kristaps Porzingis and Lonzo Ball. I’ll go with the Zinger. While Ball may move up more spots, the Zinger could potentially overstep handful of elite young players. Through the first two months of last season, he averaged nearly 26 points on over 57 percent true shooting. He fell off from there, but I believe that to be a glimpse of what he can do if healthy and in shape. Coupled with his ability to protect the rim and space the floor, the Zinger is a singularly unique talent in this league and he’s also the best bet to become the first player in league history average two threes and two blocks per game.
Jefferson: The easy answer would be Kristaps Porzingis, however, with even James Dolan chiming in that the unicorn could potentially sit out the entire season I doubt that an entire season on the sideline would cause him to rise on this list next year. With that said, my choice is Lonzo Ball. Ball had a polarizing first year in the NBA, but in comes LeBron James and the potential for Zo to play a position more aligned with what he did at UCLA that made him a can’t-miss prospect. If the shooting returns to form and he fits in next to King James than Big Baller Brand will be on it’s way back to the top in no time.
This will be the last season before Giannis ages off the list. Who takes over the top spot next season?
Wimmer: I think it’s gotta be Karl-Anthony Towns, right? Last season, he finished second in the league in Win Shares and sixth in Win Shares per 48 minutes despite playing on a team that barely made the playoffs. He also came just a few percentage points on his free throws away from joining the 50-40-90 club, which would have made him the first center to ever become a member of that exclusive group. I get why people would say Simmons or Jokic — Towns’ less than stellar defense and the likelihood of Thibodeau limiting his touches are both red flags — but I think the relative dismissal of Towns arises more from a desire to state something besides the obvious than anything else. We, as NBA writers, have a tendency to highlight the break out players over against the known entities so as Jokic and Simmons enraptured us last year, Towns got ignored even as he made his first All-Star and All-NBA team appearances. But here’s the thing about Towns that gets lost a lot as we discuss the Wolves’ dysfunction and the potential of other young players: he’s already great and, entering his fourth season, is likely only going to get better.
Toporek: Joel Embiid would be the clear choice if he likewise wasn’t aging off the list. Instead, it’s between one of Nikola Jokic, Karl-Anthony Towns or Ben Simmons. Since Towns’ team may implode in a firestorm of internal strife, it comes down to Jokic or Simmons for me. If Simmons developed some semblance of a jump shot this offseason, he’d get the nod, if only because the gap between he and Jokic on defense is far greater than Jokic’s advantage over him on offense. Otherwise, Jokic figures to win out, especially with the young Nuggets likely to make a push toward 50 wins and a playoff spot out West.
Pitman: Ben Simmons is the guy. Make no mistake, he’s a competitive beast, and criticism of his play during the playoffs will have no doubt stung him over the Summer. Simmons thrived late in the regular season with Embiid out, and the game appeared to slow down a ton for the dynamic Aussie. Yes, you’d love to see a jumpshot begin to develop, but hey, we’ve been saying the same thing about this year’s number one for the last three years. It will come.
Ladner: I think it’s fair to assume that whoever winds up in this spot won’t be as good as Giannis or Embiid is right now, as Towns, Jokić, and Simmons all have some sort of glaring limitation to their games, and I see the rate of improvement for Mitchell and Tatum slowing this season. That said, Simmons’ combination of ball-handling, passing and defensive impact is of enormous value in the modern NBA and one the other candidates can’t match, in one way or another. Unless Towns or Jokić leaps into a new stratosphere in 2019, I think Simmons takes the jump to number one.
Spyropoulos: I’ll go with a more unconventional choice in Nikola Jokic. With his unique playstyle, Jokic is nearly impossible to predict and guard on a nightly basis and has the ability to lead a (potential) top three offense in Denver for the foreseeable future. If Denver had better perimeter defenders around him, the talk of Jokic’s defensive liabilities would decrease significantly as well (he’s an average defender for the most part). More importantly, Jokic is one of the best offensive players in the league already, and when it comes down to it, offense is king in today’s NBA (though you still need some defense to win in the playoffs).
Macri: Since I already waxed poetic about Tatum, I’ll go with Donovan Mitchell. He’s a superstar. Not a star — a superstar. Even with a slight regression, he’ll become more comfortable in his role from Day One, and he’ll own it. If KD leaves the Bay Area next summer, there’s zero reason why Utah can’t emerge as legitimate contender in 2019. Mitchell will be the reason.
Kuffel: My money is on Karl-Anthony Towns, provided Jimmy Butler doesn’t murder him this season for playing Fortnite in the locker room. Towns is an incredibly gifted and versatile scorer, and he was the reason why the Timberwolves finished with the fourth best offense in the league last season. If he can manage to not give up as many points on the other end, I see no reason why he can’t top the list next year, and even the year after that.
Fenrich: For me, it’s Towns with Simmons coming in right behind. KAT’s size, athleticism, and shooting ability are unprecedented. 42 percent from 3 on over three attempts per game? 64 true shooting percentage? And doing it all with a 20 percent rebounding rate. Only two other players in league history have made a 3-per game while pulling down rebounds as frequently: Charles Barkley and Kevin Love. KAT still hasn’t proven a willingness to commit to the defensive end for 30+ minutes each game, but I like his chances to improve there more than i like Simmons’ chance of developing that jumper.
Jefferson: My fellow prognosticators are right to narrow the choice down to Karl-Anthony Towns and Ben Simmons. However, I want to provide a different selection just to be contrarian. My choice is going to be Boston Celtics second-year forward, Jayson Tatum. Tatum didn’t get as much Rookie of the Year push as Simmons or Utah’s Donovan Mitchell, however, when the lights were the brightest it was Tatum who stepped up — dunking on LeBron James’ head in Game 7 is my sole reasoning for Tatum ranking seventh on this year’s list. I think Tatum is as close to as untouchable as an asset as it gets. While Tatum was helped by being in Boston as a rookie, I think we won’t see Tatum maximize his talents with the Celtics as currently constructed. The most likely outcome is he supplants Kyrie Irving who leaves in the summer and becomes the go-to guy in year three.
Who was the most deserving player left out of our top 25?
Wimmer: There’s a few options here, but none of whom stand out enough to me to really raise much of a ruckus about it. I’ve already alluded to D’Angelo Russell’s non-appearance above, but I also think Zach LaVine — a potential 20 point per game scorer next year — and Dejounte Murray — already a stellar defender — may have been a bit collectively underrated by us. Also, where is Kyle Kuzma? I get that he likely won’t get as many touches this upcoming season, and that his ceiling isn’t as high as Ingram’s or Ball’s, but there were still stretches where he looked like the Lakers’ best young player last season. Additionally, two players whose exclusion does not really rankle me, but that I could see making us look foolish next year are Trae Young and Markelle Fultz. They’re both kind of unknown entities who could very well crash and burn, but they also have absurdly high ceilings. If either one of them even comes close to realizing their potential this year, they’ll be quite high on our list next summer.
Toporek: Markelle Fultz isn’t deserving based on his rookie season, but I won’t be one bit surprised if he’s on this list next year. Otherwise, it’s probably Zach LaVine? Yes, he’s a horrendous defender, and his efficiency plunged upon his return from his ACL tear last season. But in 2016-17, the dude averaged nearly 20 points per game while shooting almost 46 percent from the field, and he shot 38.7 percent from 3-point range on 6.6 attempts per game. A bounce-back season would put him right back into the mix.
Pitman: Dejounte Murray — Second team All-Defense in 2017-18, he is terribly unlucky to not make this list. You’d love to see him expand his offensive game this season, especially from the outside where he attempted just 0.4 shots per game.
Ladner: John Collins quietly put up a fantastic rookie season in Atlanta, and figures to be even better if the jumper he flashed in Summer League proves legitimate. The Hawks may be a disaster, but I think Collins will be better than most people anticipate.
Spyropoulos: I’ll also go with Dejounte Murray, who projects to be one of, if not the best guard defender in the league, even as soon as this upcoming season. While his offensive game is limited, he contributes on the glass and is a menace for opposing ball-handlers. I’ll also throw out Trae Young as another candidate, as his ability to stretch the floor and create offense for others is extremely valuable in today’s NBA. If his shot falls at a high rate, he will be putting up quality numbers on a Hawks team that continues to be built around his talents at point guard.
Macri: John Collins will have a better season than half the guys who made the list, but I’m not sure it’ll prevent Atlanta from being the worst team in the league, nor will it alter their expectations as a franchise. Ayton would be a safe choice, but what’s the fun in that? Give me Kevin Knox (what’s the advantage of being a huge homer if you can’t write about it in a round table like this?). I’m all in. If even 75 percent of his Summer League performance translates, he’s a game-changer for the Knicks.
Kuffel: Of all the guys left out, I will happily take Pascal Siakam. I’d even take him over a handful of the guys on the list. Siakam was a positive for the Raptors on both ends of the floor last season, and he flashed some exciting offensive potential while being a legit defensive anchor down the stretch. Watching Siakam, Kawhi Leonard and OG Anunoby essentially create a forcefield around the perimeter next season is going to be quite the spectacle.
Fenrich: This is a toss up between Markelle Fultz and Taurean Prince. I think Fultz ultimately ascends to the top-ten and since the wording is specifically “deserving,” Prince is the choice. He gets little-to-no love stuck in that spaghetti junction of Atlanta highways and biways, but he’s a rock solid modern wing who can shoot and defend. If he was on the Spurs or Celtics, we’d be tripping over ourselves to rain praises upon him. Instead, we’re out here cozying up with the Ben Simmons’s and Jayson Tatum’s of the world, trying to curry favor before the balances of power truly shift. We have let Taurean down, but more importantly, we let ourselves down and for that, there is no excuse.
Jefferson: I’ll gladly grab the D’Angelo Russell cape from Micah here. When healthy, Russell was having a sensational season with the Brooklyn Nets. With another year in Kenny Atkinson’s system and free agency looming large, I think this is the year we finally see the Russell we expected when he was taken second overall by the Los Angeles Lakers. Russell’s ability to score from all three levels combined with his passing skills make him the type of player that should flourish in the new age pace-and-space NBA.
Looking at our rankings, which team’s stable of young talent is the most impressive?
Wimmer: It’s gotta be either the Sixers or the Celtics, but I really don’t care to wade into that debate. I have friends on both sides and would like to remain cordial with all of them. I also want to give a cursory shout out to the Lakers’ young triumvirate of Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, and Kyle Kuzma. While Kuzma surpassed all reasonable expectations for him in his rookie season, Ball and Ingram have shown intermittent promise and remain compelling if frustrating prospects. It’s not clear yet how throwing LeBron James into the mix will affect their development, but if Ball and Ingram improve on last year, they will certainly belong in the conversation.
Toporek: The Philadelphia 76ers. No other team had two players in the top five, and it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons aren’t perennial All-Stars so long as they stay healthy. Throw in Dario Saric (No. 24), Markelle Fultz (who’s likely to be ranked next year if he remembers how to shoot), No. 16 overall pick Zhaire Smith (unranked), and the Sixers just edge their division rivals to the north in Boston.
Pitman: Boston Celtics — With Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart making the list, they just top the Sixers crew based on playoff results. Tatum and Brown stepped up to the plate and then some during the postseason, sparking the Celtics hopes to contend with the Warriors this season providing they can stay healthy. Given how loaded the Celtics roster is, I doubt they are able to fend of their division rivals for this mantle in 12 months time.
Ladner: Boston (Brown, Tatum) and Denver (Jokić, Harris, Murray) both deserve mention, but Philadelphia has two players in the top five of our list (Embiid, Simmons) and another on the fringes of it (Sarić). Markelle Fultz is a complete mystery, but could realistically be better than the majority of players we ranked by the end of next season. There seems to be optimism among this group that Simmons could be the heir to the top spot
Spyropoulos: Philadelphia has the top-end young talent, while Boston and Denver project to have more balanced young cores (that also have star potential among them). Since stars carry team success in the NBA, Philadelphia’s stable is most impressive, especially if Fultz develops into the player many expect him to be and Embiid stays healthy. I do want to shoutout Denver, who have the ideal backcourt duo in Murray and Harris, and both enjoy playing alongside Nikola Jokic. Plus, if they hit on the Michael Porter Jr. pick and he stays healthy, he adds another dimension to their young core for the foreseeable future.
Macri: Before I answer, let me pour one out for the Wolves, who would have been the answer to this question a year ago, even after the Jimmy Butler trade. It just goes to show that young talent is so exciting in part because there’s an unknowable quality about it, and there’s two sides to that coin. That’s why I’ll take the Celtics. Tatum is as sure a thing on this list besides Giannis, and Brown isn’t far behind. Rozier was a monster at times in the playoffs (he finished 26th in our voting), and Smart is Smart. Finals or bust in 2019.
Kuffel: I’ve got to go with Kane and say Boston. The combination of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Terry “I really don’t have a problem with Kyrie coming back, really I don’t, it’s actually great, I’m thrilled” Rozier and Marcus Smart is a really solid crop of players without many glaring weaknesses other than Smart’s shooting. Add in the fact that Boston will likely have another top pick from Sacramento in the 2019 draft (unless it’s the No. 1 pick), and it’s just unfair. The Celtics are going to be an issue for a while.
Fenrich: With two players in the top-five, a third ranked 24th, and a fourth who’s only 20-years-old and likely to break into the list next year, Philly is the most impressive. What an embarrassment of young riches.
Jefferson: The answer is Philadelphia, you’re thinking too hard if you chose otherwise.