Canelo vs. GGG 2: What Gennady Golovkin can do differently to win

Gennady Golovkin looked good against Canelo Alvarez in their first fight, but it wasn’t enough. Here’s what he can do differently to ensure a victory.

Nearly one year ago, Gennady ‘GGG’ Golovkin (38-0-1, 34 KOs) and Canelo Alvarez (49-1-2, 34 KOs) fought to a controversial draw. It was a close fight, but judge Adelaide Byrd shocked the world with a score of 118-110 in favor of Alvarez. Golovkin outperformed Alvarez in every statistical category and he still received a draw. It begs the question, what does Golovkin have to do to get a win over Alvarez?

Golovkin likely won’t knock out Alvarez on Saturday, Sept. 15. Alvarez took his best shots well in the first fight. He needs to win by decision. To do that, Golovkin has to look even better than he did in their first fight. That’s a hard task to accomplish, but it’s possible.

Overall, Golovkin must be more accurate with his punches. According to CompuBox (via SI.com), Golovkin landed 218 out of 703 total punches, which is 31 percent. In a fight of this magnitude, that’s pretty good, but not good enough.

Golovkin threw 198 more punches than Canelo, but he only landed 49 more. That ratio must improve if Golovkin wants to earn a win. There’s a simple solution to this problem: jab more and throw fewer power punches.

Golovkin’s jabbed successfully during the first fight. He landed nearly 30 percent of his jabs. GGG threw 361 jabs in the first fight. He should try to increase that number closer to 400. This requires patience on his part. He can still push the fight’s action, but he has to tone down his aggressiveness a bit.

On the surface, Golovkin’s power punch statistics from the first fight look solid. He landed 110 of 342 total power punches for a 32.2 percent connect rate. That’s a high percentage, but it could be higher. He attempted a lot of power punches, and that takes a toll on a boxer’s stamina. It takes a lot of wasted energy to throw a strong punch and miss. He can’t swing for the fences with reckless abandon.

Golovkin needs to be more selective and calculated when throwing power punches. His work rate is fantastic, but it does no good if he’s missing his target. Golovkin would be better served by setting up his power punches with jabs and combinations. He should put in work to Alvarez’s body and target the head less often than he did in the first bout. Alvarez is an elusive opponent. It’s easier to hit him in the body than his dodging head.

The final part of his game that Golovkin needs to modify the second time around is his defense. GGG is not a great defensive boxer. Golovkin allowed his previous opponents to hit him. He baited them into a fight. Alvarez is too wise for that. He counter punched Golovkin well while avoiding some of his most devastating punches.

Golovkin stalked Alvarez in their first fight and left himself open to attack. Alvarez hit Golovkin with 41.9 percent of his power punches. Golovkin has to disrupt that pattern in the rematch. He should move his head more when engaging Alvarez. GGG is 36 years old, so it’s doubtful that he’s going to suddenly morph into a defensive-minded fighter.

However, he can be more careful about when he attacks Alvarez. Golovkin could take the center of the ring and hold his position. He doesn’t always have to advance towards his Alvarez. He can win exchanges against Alvarez at a distance.

There are a lot of little things Golovkin can do differently in the rematch. He’s capable of modifying his earlier strategy, but did he do enough mental preparation to alter this fight’s outcome? Able Sanchez, Golovkin’s trainer, told FanSided in August that he only watched the bout twice and he’s the one responsible for crafting the fight plan. Hopefully, Sanchez suggested some of these alterations or else GGG could receive his first loss.