College Football picks against the spread September 15, 2018

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Our week began last night with a couple of “hurricane games” that were pushed back from the weekend. Now we really get into it with the busiest Saturday of the year so far. There are 49 more FBS vs. FBS games. It would be more but Hurricane Florence took away a great one between West Virginia and North Carolina State and an interesting one between UNC and Central Florida.

For those of you that are new to this, I pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread! I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other football.

I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. 1 means that I have little to no confidence. 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year. I went 400-75 last season and ended up with 31 points in my point bank. I am aiming for 55% this year. It’s harder than it looks! A nice week 2 put me above .500 on the season at 48-47 overall. Despite that, I have padded the bankroll with 11 betting points on the season.

This is for entertainment purposes only! I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I can’t have that on my conscious.

Without further delay, we get to the meat of week 3!

(5)Oklahoma(-17.5) at Iowa State(-17.5)(1):

This has the unmistakable look of a trap game. Iowa State is always tough in Ames. This line is down six points already, and that is with Kempt’s status still up in the air. This still looks a tad high if Kempt plays. If not, it’s still a crapshoot. It’s extremely hard to bet this one. The half tells me to take Iowa State at home. They wont win outright, but it will be within two touchdowns.

Georgia Southern at (2)Clemson(-33.5)(2):

I hate lines like this. However, this Clemson defense is nasty, and their backup quarterback is just about as good as the starter. We learned from Alabama last week that when that is the case, take the more talented team to cover. I’ll take Clemson.

Middle Tennessee State at (3)Georgia(-33.5)(2):

Ugh…..another huge line. Georgia has about two dozen running backs that could start just about anywhere, so they have to be able to cover this, right? They almost beat South Carolina by this much, and the Cocks are a lot better than MTSU. I’ll take Georgia.

Kent State at (11)Penn State(-34.5)(2):

Another massive line. The difference here is that Penn State is not elite on either side of the ball. They are good, but good doesn’t cover these mammoth spreads. I’ll take Kent.

(21)Miami(FL)(-10.5) at Toledo(1):

You can say this for the Hurricanes. They aren’t afraid to leave the state for solid OOC games. They played at Appalachian State last year in a game that saw the good citizens of Boone, North Carolina climbing trees around the stadium just to get a look at the game. There are no trees in Toledo, but you can bet Miami will draw here as well. The Hurricanes set a school record for beating Savannah State by 77 last week. That wont happen here, but I also can’t tell you what will. Toledo is the defending MAC champ, but this team isn’t the same as last year’s. I’ll take Miami.

Hawaii at Army(-6.5)(3)

Well, this is interesting. This isn’t the same Hawaii team that routinely got smashed on the mainland the last couple of years. This offense is going to be among the best in the country. The defense lets the other team score just so they can watch their offense again. It’s true! All kidding aside, I don’t see Army winning this. It will likely be close because Hawaii can’t stop anyone, but there will be more points than Army is comfortable with. I’ll take Hawaii.

Troy at Nebraska(-10.5)(2):

If Adrian Martinez plays, I think Nebraska covers this. If not, their offense wasn’t close to the same without him in it. Which really isn’t surprising considering that Martinez is the only scholarship quarterback on the roster. I may change this as the status of Martinez becomes more clear, but if Martinez is out, I’m taking Troy. If he’s in, I’m going Nebraska.

Florida State(-2.5) at Syracuse(2):

For those of us looking for a money maker, this may not be it. I was expecting this line to still be up around double digits, but not such luck. I was going to take the Orange straight up anyway, so this really doesn’t affect my pick any, but I am definitely lowering the bet. There is a lot less leeway with the line this low.

Rutgers at Kansas(-2.5)(1)

Really? Kansas is favored? This team just broke a 46 game road losing streak, and hasn’t beaten back to back FBS opponents since Mark Mangino was on the sidelines. Kansas hasn’t been favored against a FBS school since 2012 against Rice. They lost that one at home too. I think Kansas has more, uh, exciting? players. The truth is your eyes will bleed if you watch this game, and your significant other will definitely leave you if you bet this monstrosity. I’m only taking Kansas because I have to pick, but this looks like a bad bet all the way around. Taking the under is a much safer proposition.

Ball State at Indiana(-14.5)(4):

Too many. I wouldn’t be all that surprised if the Fighting Letterman’s won this outright. They even stayed within this against Notre Dame! This line is almost as crazy as the people who made it.

Temple at Maryland(-16.5)(2):

This line is all over the place. It opened at 14, it still there in one place, but is as high as 18.5 in others. When this happens, Vegas sometimes pulls the line. They don’t like the play in it. This isn’t going to stabilize anytime soon. I really have no preference since I like Maryland at home anyway, but if it gets over 20, I may flip.

UTEP at Tennessee(-30.5)(3):

Wow, this line is nuts, especially when you consider how poorly Tennessee has played on offense for most of the last two years. However, the Vols blitzed East Tennessee State last week, and UTEP might be worse than them. Give me the Vols.

Georgia Tech(-3.5) at Pittsburgh(1):

I know that Pitt isn’t as bad as they looked in the second half against Penn State last week, but I don’t know that they can win this outright either. If Pickett can get the passing game going, this is a winnable game, but that is a big if. I’ll take Pitt with no confidence.

Tulane(-3.5) at UAB(3):

This looks low. That Tulane offense is pretty good, and the defense did a solid job against Wake in the opener. This stays close, but I still like Tulane here. I don’t think UAB can stop Terren Encalade.

Vanderbilt at (8)Notre Dame(-13.5)(3):

This is too many. The Irish struggled with turnovers against Ball State, and this Vanderbilt defense makes a living off of takeaways. The Commodore offense is not as good as Ball State’s, but they are good enough to hang around. I think this stays within ten. I’ll take Vandy.

BYU at (6)Wisconsin(-21.5)(3):

It turns out that BYU looking good in the opener is just a byproduct of Arizona not being very good. Wisconsin runs off with this one…….literally. Give me Bucky.

(12)LSU at (7)Auburn(-10.5)(3):

Really? This is too many. I expect a very tough, run dominated game. If Auburn wins, it wont be by more than ten. Give me LSU.

(17)Boise State at (24)Oklahoma State(-2.5)(1):

I expect a really good game here. How much do we really know about Boise? Or Oklahoma State for that matter? Boise’s run defense has been gouged so far, and Justice Hill is far and away the best back they have seen lately. Boise has a habit of beating Big 12(10) teams. I’ve flipped on this game a couple of times already, but Vegas hasn’t. OSU opened favored by 3.5. It has dropped a point, and that’s it. I think that’s enough to flip me back to the Pokes…..for now. Yes, I changed it on Pick Em too.

SMU at (19)Michigan(-35.5)(2):

That’s a lot, but it is warranted. SMU may be worse than the Western Michigan team that the Wolvies pounded last week. I’ll take Michigan.

South Florida(-10.5) at Illinois(3):

This looks low. South Florida beat a pretty good Georgia Tech offense by offense by more than this. Illinois far from pretty good. I’ll take the Bulls.

Duke at Baylor(-6.5)(2):

Wow, I was pretty surprised to see this. This opened at -2.5 and for some reason it keeps rising. Duke has at least played good teams. You can’t say that for Baylor. I still like Duke straight up.

Central Michigan at Northern Illinois(-14.5)(2):

I have little confidence in the NIU offense, but Central Michigan just lost to Kansas at home, and not by a little. I’ll take the Huskies, but I’m lowering the bet because of that half.

Miami(OH) at Minnesota(-13.5)(4):

With all due respect to the Cincinnati unit, Minnesota’s is better. The Bearcats shut out Miami last week, so Minnesota only really needs to score two touchdowns. Easy, right? Looks like it. I’ll take the Gophers.

UTSA at Kansas State(-21.5)(2):

Too many. I’m not sure Kansas State can even score 22 points. Give me the Roadrunners.

Colorado State at Florida(-20.5)(3):

The Swamp, or rather the team in it, isn’t what it used to be. The Rams took down Arkansas last week in Fort Collins. The Piggies are set up much the way Florida is. The Gators have a better defense, but I don’t know that they can outscore anyone by this right now. I’ll take Colorado State.

North Texas at Arkansas(-6.5)(3)

This line opened at a touchdown and has not moved. Anywhere. I’ll give the half again because I like North Texas straight up anyway. I do have questions about the defense, but Arkansas is going to have all kinds of problems with this offense.

Houston(-1.5) at Texas Tech(2):

This one is a bit surprising. It opened with Tech favored by three and quickly went the other way. I understand. Texas Tech has no defense, and Houston has arguably the best defensive player in the Nation in Ed Oliver. I do like this Texas Tech offense, and I think they pull it out at home, but this is going to be a fun one to watch!

Ohio at Virginia(-3.5)(2):

Bryce Perkins is making this offense for Virginia a little better than normal, and the defense seems to be back. Ohio is pretty good offensively, but this still looks low. I’ll take the Cavs at home for anything under a touchdown.

San Jose State at (20)Oregon(-41.5)(2):

Wow, that’s a ton of points. The over/under is 69 if that tells you anything. Oregon might hit the over on their own. The Ducks have played some horrible teams this year, but this one may be the worst. I’ll take Oregon.

Eastern Michigan at Buffalo(-3.5)(2):

This one is a little shocking considering that the Eagles just beat Purdue. The line is down 2.5, so there has been some adjustment. Just not enough. I like the Eagles straight up.

(1)Alabama(-21.5) at Mississippi(1):

On talent alone, Bama can cover anyone. That said, this is the bowl for Ole Miss since they are ineligible for the post season. I have a feeling they are going to hang around. They aren’t going to win, but I like Ole Miss to keep it between two and three touchdowns.

Texas State at South Alabama(-10.5)(1):

That’s a lot of points for a team that struggles to score them, but Texas State is definitely a bottom ten team on the road. I’ll take the Jags.

Arkansas State(-1.5) at Tulsa(3):

Tulsa looks pretty good in Austin, but I don’t really know how much that means right now. I do know that Justice Hansen is better than any QB on Texas’ roster. I’ll take the Red Wolves.

Oregon State at Nevada(-3.5)(2):

The Beavers are terrible. This actually looks low. I’ll take the Wolfpack. Ty Gangi could have a huge game here.

Louisiana at (16)Mississippi State(-33.5)(1):

Usually when a line starts out this high, it doesn’t keep rising throughout the week. It is up another three points. At what point is it too much? It might be here, but I wouldn’t bet on it. It’s time to lower the bet and take the better team. Give me the Bulldogs.

Western Kentucky at Louisville(-22.5)(2):

If Drew Eckels misses this game, then yeah, I think Louisville could win by that. Chances are he plays, so I’m taking the Hilltoppers. This is too high.

Missouri(-6.5) at Purdue(5):

Well, we found the free money for this week. Purd-ewwww just lost to Eastern Michigan. Mizzou stomped a solid Wyoming team. This gets ugly. Missouri by a lot for my lock of the week!

Louisiana-Monroe at Texas A&M(-26.5)(3):

If the Aggies have Clemson hangover, they may come out slow enough to put this line in jeopardy. That seems like a dangerous thing to bet on. Give me the Aggies.

Massachusetts at Florida International(-3.5)(4):

Who knows something I don’t? UMass has been cover bait in the early going because their defense can’t get stops. Did they sign a couple guys from Boston College or Hahvahd? FIU is good for at least a touchdown at home.

Akron at Northwestern(-21.5)(1):

The Northwestern defense is as advertised, but this offense is really struggling. I think I’ll take Akron. Northwestern may not score 22 in this one.

(4)Ohio State(-12.5) at (15)TCU(3):

Ohio State’s defense has been dominant, which is not good for the Toadies. Robinson has yet to get into a passing groove, and he isn’t going to find it against this defense either. This could get ugly. Ohio State wont have much of a problem covering this.

(22)USC at Texas(-3.5)(5):

You’re kidding, right? Did Vince Young come back for his last year of eligibility? There is no way Texas should be favored here. This USC defense is really good, and Texas’ offense is not good to begin with. The Trojans may win 13-0, but it’s still going to be a convincing win. Give me SC.

New Mexico(-3.5) at New Mexico State(2):

Honestly, the Lobos have looked much better getting blown out than the Aggies have. Is that a good thing? Here it may be. I’ll take New Mexico.

(10)Washington(-5.5) at Utah(3):

The Utah offense never got going against Northern Illinois last week, which is a little surprising considering all of the weapons they have. Washington’s D has looked really good, even in the loss to Auburn. I tend to think that they can handle the Utes. The Huskies are still a top ten team. I’ll take Washington.

(23)Arizona State(-5.5) at San Diego State(2):

This screams trap. Can Herm Edwards help his team avoid that? The Sun Devils have to face another stout defense. The Aztecs aren’t anything exciting, but it’s easy to just let them run and run and run and all of the sudden you look at the scoreboard and you’re down 17. That wont happen here. I still like Arizona State, but I could see a scenario where they lose, so I’ll lower the bet.

Fresno State(-2.5) at UCLA(3):

I can honestly say that I didn’t expect the Bulldogs to be favored, but I’m not surprised they are. The Bruins are taking their lumps now, but they are going to be better for it later. I do like Fresno here, but will the stage be too big for them? McMaryion started at Oregon State, so you wouldn’t think so. Give me Fresno.

The final score is: Hurricane Florence 5, College football 0. West Virginia at NC State, UCF at UNC, Marshall at South Carolina, Southern Miss at Appalachian State, and East Carolina at Virginia Tech were all lost to the hurricane.

That leaves us with a total of 49 FBS vs. FBS tilts this week. I ended up with 10 one pointers, 18 two pointers, 15 three pointers, four four pointers, and two five pointers. I really upped my threes this week. Let’s see how that goes! There’s some good spots to make some money this week!