NFL DFS Bargain Bin- Week 2
NFL DFS Bargain Bin- Week 2 All Slates
Welcome to the Week 2 edition of the NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the ledger and touch on where there may be some mis-priced players across Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft in favorable matchups.
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content:
- The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
- Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
- Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more site prices a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as a “XYZ site(s) special”.
- These players are but a sampling of who I feel are some of the best values at each position that week. However, with so many skills players in the NFL, there are certainly others worth considering, especially as late-breaking injury news comes out Sunday morning. Therefore, feel free to utilize this piece as a good guide for where some of the most prominent value lies, but not as an exhaustive list.
- The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criteria.
With those housekeeping items out of the way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on the Week 2 slates!
NFL DFS Bargain Bin- Week 2 Quarterbacks
Case Keenum, DEN vs. OAK- Yahoo ($27)/ FanDuel ($6,700)/ DraftKings ($5,800)/ FantasyDraft ($12,100)
Keenum got his Broncos career off to a rousing start last Sunday with a 329-yard, three-touchdown effort against a Seahawks team that had Earl Thomas back in the fold in time for the opener. While his three interceptions — one which came at the hands of Thomas — were a blemish, Keenum displayed excellent rapport with his starting duo of Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, while impressive rookie Courtland Sutton also showed up well on the stat sheet and was targeted, albeit unsuccessfully, on multiple deep throws that would have made his and Keenum’s afternoons even bigger had they connected.
Keenum gets the benefit of a second consecutive home game in Week 2 and remains priced very affordably across the industry for a matchup against a Raiders squad that was lambasted by the Rams on Monday night. Oakland will be traveling on a short week and entering the thin air, where they’re likely to struggle to keep up with Denver’s top receiver trio. The Raiders’ secondary is currently a mix of talented but unproven young pieces (Gareon Conley) and journeymen (Rashaan Melvin, Leon Hall) as well, which bodes well for Keenum.
Tyrod Taylor, CLE at NO- Yahoo ($30)/ FanDuel ($6,600)/ DraftKings ($5,900)/ FantasyDraft ($10,400)
Taylor, albeit in a game that featured some adverse weather conditions at times and against a tough defense, provided a reminder of his dual-threat upside in Week 1 versus the Steelers. He now heads to the controlled conditions of the Superdome, where he’ll have the benefit of a faster track when he takes off and will likely be the focus of an aggressive air attack designed to keep up with Drew Brees and company.
Taylor should also have Josh Gordon hitting on all cylinders this week after he was eased in during the opener, at least in terms of targets. He figures to need both Gordon and Jarvis Landry plenty in a contest that could be on the high-scoring side, and a significant improvement on his 37.5 completion percentage from Week 1 is essentially a lock given the circumstances he’ll find himself in. Additionally, although the Saints secondary isn’t going to be nearly as bad as it looked versus the Buccaneers in the opener, there’s certainly the possibility of a bit of a carryover effect given the extent of the onslaught they endured.
Andrew Luck, IND at WAS– Yahoo ($32)/ FanDuel ($7,500)/ DraftKings ($6,200)/ FantasyDraft ($11,700)
Despite finally corroborating the fitness of his much-discussed shoulder by slinging it 53 times in Week 1, Luck remains very reasonably priced in Week 2, especially compared to his own personal salary history. The Colts’ linchpin could be headed for another robust volume of pass attempts against the Redskins, as running back Marlon Mack remains questionable for the contest with his hamstring injury as of Friday morning.
Luck could see T.Y. Hilton often shadowed by Josh Norman, but the rapport he displayed in the opener with newcomer Ryan Grant could surface once again with the former Redskins wideout likely to often face off with second corner Quinton Dunbar. Meanwhile, it bears noting that Washington gave up bottom-10 figures in both DraftKings points (14.2) and FanDuel points (11.2) to tight ends last season, particularly relevant figures considering that the talented duo of Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron were targeted a combined 15 times and produced one touchdown (Ebron’s) versus the Bengals in Week 1.
NFL DFS Bargain Bin- Week 2 Running Backs
Jordan Howard, CHI vs. SEA- Yahoo ($26)/ FanDuel ($7,400)/ DraftKings ($5,900)/ FantasyDraft ($13,400)
You’ll see some prominent names in this section this week, as pricing remains very reasonable for a trio of big-name backs that should be heavily involved in their respective games. We’ll start with Howard, who received 20 touches in last Sunday night’s opener against the Packers and parlayed them into an impressive 107 yards. Howard looked bigger, stronger and quicker as a runner, ripping off an impressive 5.5 yards per tote on his 15 carries. His involvement in the passing game — where he secured all five targets — was certainly encouraging as well, considering it had often been talked about over the summer.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks defense could be in a heap of trouble, at least early in the season while linebacker K.J. Wright remains sidelined with a knee injury. Position mate Bobby Wagner is also questionable for Sunday’s matchup with a groin issue after playing on all 74 snaps in Week 1, and his absence would clear Howard’s path to success even further. Given that Seattle allowed a combined 146 rushing yards to the Broncos in Week 1 — with much of that coming from rookies Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsay — the more accomplished Howard’s prospects are looking increasingly bright heading into his Week 2 matchup.
Dalvin Cook, MIN at GB- Yahoo ($25)/ FanDuel ($6,500)/ DraftKings ($6,500)/ FantasyDraft ($12,300)
Cook checks in as my second bargain option, considering his price remains very reasonable despite a Week 1 performance where he provided unequivocal evidence of the health of his knee. The second-year back wasn’t able to get much going on the ground against a 49ers team intent on stopping him (2.5 yards per rush), but he flashed in the passing game with six catches (on seven targets) for 55 yards. Moreover, he looked explosive and decisive on his runs, but simply didn’t have enough consistent room to maximize his yardage.
The passing-game usage is particularly encouraging in Cook’s case, and given the Packers’ vulnerability to the running back position in Week 1, it bodes well for his potential Week 2 production. As just alluded to in Howard’s entry, Green Bay allowed five receptions to the Bears running back in the opener, as well 5.5 yards per carry. Cook is a more explosive runner, and with the potential for a 20-touch game on the ground at minimum after having proven the fitness of his knee with 22 total touches against San Francisco.
LeSean McCoy, BUF vs. LAC- Yahoo ($21)/ FanDuel ($6,800)/ DraftKings ($5,700)/ FantasyDraft ($11,600)
Any Bills skill pieces might be personas non grata in the minds of many fantasy players after Week 1, but I’d make a case for McCoy at what has to be his lowest prices since the advent of major-site DFS NFL contests earlier this decade. The veteran’s touches were extremely limited in the opener due to game script, but there’s reason to think it could be a very different set of circumstances in Week 2.
To begin with, McCoy is likely to face better weather conditions than he did in rainy Baltimore, and as a result, the offense might look much better overall. Moreover, with rookie Josh Allen set to make his NFL debut, McCoy could be leaned on heavily, especially after seeing so little action a week ago. The Chargers are also making the cross-country trek for a 1pm ET game, which has proven difficult for them in the past.
Additionally, a steady diet of runs and outlet passes appear to almost certainly be in McCoy’s immediate future against a Chargers team that did a surprisingly good job versus Kareem Hunt in Week 1, but that gave up 25.8 DraftKings points and 21.8 FanDuel points to running backs on a per-game basis in 2017. Those numbers were partly comprised of a robust 88 receptions allowed to the position, furthering McCoy’s case at a price that several thousand down from his heyday.
ALSO CONSIDER:
Royce Freeman, DEN vs. OAK- Yahoo ($19)/ FanDuel ($6,000)/ DraftKings ($4,300)/ FantasyDraft ($8,400)
Dion Lewis, TEN vs. HOU- Yahoo ($17)/ FanDuel ($6,500)/ DraftKings ($5,000)/ FantasyDraft ($9,800)
NFL DFS Bargain Bin- Week 2 Wide Receivers
Emmanuel Sanders, DEN vs. OAK– Yahoo ($21)/ FanDuel ($6,800)/ DraftKings ($6,200)/ FantasyDraft ($12,300)
As alluded to in Keenum’s entry, Sanders exploded out of the gates in Week 1 against the Seahawks for 10 receptions, 135 yards and a touchdown. He saw 11 targets overall from his new quarterback, and his performance was certainly a welcome sight for DFS players who often suffered along with him through the Broncos’ untenable quarterback situation last season.
The good news is that he’s teed up for another excellent matchup in Week 2, considering the Raiders secondary is a mish-mash of young, old and older that isn’t likely to keep up with Sanders, especially if he lines up in the slot on the majority of his snaps like last week. In that scenario, he could draw the coverage of either Nick Nelson and Leon Hall the majority of the time, matchups that Sanders is certainly capable of winning consistently.
Kenny Golladay, DET at SF- Yahoo ($12)/ FanDuel ($5,700)/ DraftKings ($4,800)/ FantasyDraft ($9,500)
In the midst of the Lions’ Monday night disaster against the Jets, a lone ray of sunshine seemed to penetrate the darkness, and his name was Kenny Golladay. The second-year receiver had been the recipient of a fair share of hype this summer after an encouraging rookie season, and he validated some of that talk in Week 1. Golladay finished with seven catches for 114 yards in the contest, and although some of his production did come as a result of a Jets going into prevent mode thanks to a big lead, he still flashed his ample physical skills on several catches.
Detroit isn’t likely to see everything fall apart for their offense on two consecutive weeks, as they simply have too much talent. Golladay is certainly one of their more gifted assets, and the 49ers secondary isn’t equipped to consistently slow him down, especially with Marvin Jones, Jr. and Golden Tate also on hand to be concerned with. That should leave Golladay in plenty of one-on-one matchups versus a defensive backfield that has three players with questionable designations as of Friday morning. On that subject, it’s also worth noting that San Francisco allowed a combined 11 receptions and 163 yards to Vikings wide receivers in the opener with a fully healthy secondary.
Brandon Marshall, SEA at CHI– Yahoo ($12)/ FanDuel ($5,700)/ DraftKings ($4,300)/ FantasyDraft ($7,000)
His name may cause a double-take, but there’s a case to be made for Marshall in Week 2. Doug Baldwin (knee) is out of action, and the Seahawks don’t have any other receiver better equipped to take care of all the “dirty work” routes that Baldwin often runs than Marshall. Tyler Lockett certainly isn’t built for that type of route tree over the long term, while Jaron Brown has the size but not the resume. Russell Wilson already put it up 33 times against the Broncos in Week 1, and he should be in for plenty of similar games moving forward with Seattle likely to be involved in some shootouts.
That should put Marshall front and center for plenty of the high-volume workload he’s amply proven capable of handling over the course of his storied career. The fact the matchup comes against one of his former squads certainly doesn’t hurt when it comes to motivation, either, and with Bears stalwart corner Kyle Fuller potentially busy with Lockett a good portion of the time, Marshall could see plenty of snaps against Prince Amukamara, who last intercepted a pass in 2015.
ALSO CONSIDER:
Josh Gordon, CLE at NO- Yahoo ($27)/ FanDuel ($6,300)/ DraftKings ($5,800)/ FantasyDraft ($11,300)
NFL DFS Bargain Bin- Week 2 Tight Ends/Team Defenses
Tight Ends
Jack Doyle, IND at WAS- Yahoo ($17)/ FanDuel ($5,600)/ DraftKings ($4,000)/ FantasyDraft ($7,100)
Doyle was the apple of Andrew Luck’s eye once again in the opener, with the two picking up where they left off during Doyle’s breakout 2016 campaign. The tight end saw a total of 10 targets that he parlayed into seven receptions and 64 yards. While he did have a key fumble, Doyle clearly has Luck’s trust. Moreover, with Indianapolis showing a penchant for the short passing game to open the season, the tight end could be in for another heavy workload in Week 2 against a Redskins team that allowed 14.2 DraftKings points and 11.5 FanDuel points per game to the position last season.
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Jared Cook, OAK at DEN- Yahoo ($16)/ FanDuel ($5,000)/ DraftKings ($3,600)/ FantasyDraft ($7,000)
No, I’m not expecting anything near what we saw in the opener against the Rams from Cook, but I’m convinced he’ll be one of Derek Carr‘s top targets again. As was the case last week, the matchup against the Broncos dictates plenty of action for the tight end, given Denver’s strength at the cornerback position. That should see Cook running plenty of seam routes versus a Broncos squad that allowed the third-most yards (1,023) to tight ends in 2017, along with the third-most DraftKings (14.9) and FanDuel (12.2) points per game to the position.
Jonnu Smith, TEN vs. HOU- Yahoo ($10)/ FanDuel ($4,200)/ DraftKings ($3,100)/ FantasyDraft ($6,400)
We’re about to find out if the potential Smith flashed at times during his rookie 2017 campaign was a hint of much bigger things to come, as the second-year FIU product now has a clear path to the starting role in the wake of Delanie Walker‘s season-ending ankle injury. Smith boasts excellent size and speed, and given Marcus Mariota‘s propensity for throwing to the tight end (and his accuracy issues at times when throwing further downfield to receivers), Smith should be in line for plenty of work right from the jump. The combination of his minuscule price tag across the industry and the matchup against a Texans squad that yielded the fourth-most DraftKings points (14.2) and fifth-most FanDuel points (11.7) per game to the position last season (and surrendered a big game to the Pats’ Rob Gronkowski in Week 1) makes him one of the week’s most intriguing value options.
ALSO CONSIDER:
Ian Thomas, CAR at ATL- Yahoo ($10)/ FanDuel ($4,000)/ DraftKings ($2,900)/ FantasyDraft ($6,300)
Team Defense
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys– Yahoo ($10)/ FanDuel ($3,800)/ DraftKings ($2,700)/ FantasyDraft ($4,900)
The Giants defense is priced down for a matchup that I believe will become a streaming favorite to target with defenses this season in DFS. As was suspected all summer and confirmed in their Week 1 loss to the Panthers, the Cowboys will struggle to put up points this season. They have no legitimate, consistent outside threat to threaten defenses over the top, meaning Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott are destined for a season where they should see eight or nine defenders invading their personal space by crowding the box on nearly every play.
That should make game-planning for Dallas fairly straightforward, and lead to plenty of aggressive schemes with blitzes that could easily lead to turnover-causing hits on Prescott. The probability of such is furthered by the continued absence of the Cowboys’ offensive line’s anchor in Travis Frederick (illness), whose stalwart presence in the middle will be greatly missed. The Giants were only able to bring Blake Bortles down once in Week 1, but the caliber of competition gets considerably softer in Week 2, as evidenced by the six sacks Prescott was victim to in the opener against Carolina.
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