MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Saturday September 15
Welcome to the Saturday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
If you wanted to win big on Friday Night, you needed to have Chris Stratton and Aaron Altherr – yes, that is the beauty of MLB DFS variance this late in the season and pretty much sums up how the slate went last night since I had neither of the two! Good times!
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Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Early Slate Overview:
Yawn. That is my general take on this six game early slate when it comes to the pitching options we have to sort through. Not only do we have a lack of high-upside arms but we also have a slate full of top offenses and warmer temperatures which to me means that this slate is all about picking the right batters.
I can’t believe I am going to type this – but this looks like a spot I may actually use … ugh… Jon Lester ($18.1K). Yes, I know – it has taken until September but I may have to finally break from brand here.
Here is what we know about Mr. Regression – when he gets a favorable umpire who allows him to work the corners, he is able to limit damage and put up solid outings. Today, Lester gets Bruce Dreckman behind the plate – an extreme pitcher’s umpire who per Swish Analytics sees a 10% boost in K’s over the league average when he is calling balls and strikes.
Now add in the fact that the game is in Wrigley, with cooler temperatures and the wind blowing straight in – and it seems like the perfect spot for a Lester razzle dazzle spot which of course means I will use him and he will give up 10 HR’s – it is simply how it goes.
Now – if you want to stay on the fade Lester train but you want to play the umpire and hitting conditions in Wrigley – why not go with Cody Reed on the other side of this game? Reed has had mediocre results at the Major League level so far but this is an arm with a 23% K rate in AAA and former 2nd round pick so the pedigree is there and the fact he is the cheapest arm on the slate – gives you a path to load up on all the bats you could possibly want.
John Gant ($14.9K) could be interesting depending on the line-up the Dodgers throw out today as if we get a right-handed heavy line-up – Gant could present some sneaky value. On the season, Gant has a 54% GB rate and a paltry .071 ISO versus RHB and at home Gant has been exceptionally strong versus RHB with a 25% K rate. It never feels good to pick on this loaded LA line-up, but Gant has put up 20+ fantasy points in four of his last six outings which puts him in the discussion for one of the highest upside arms on this mediocre pitching slate.
From a hitting perspective – on a six game slate with a slate high run total of 5.5 – the Yankees are going to be SUPER chalk especially after their 11 run outburst last night. In tournaments – it makes all the sense in the world to play the variance and go to the Indians or Braves with similar high run totals. The only issue is that the Yankees prices are just still so cheap on FantasyDraft – you can stack the 1-6 in the projected line-up for only $8.6K per batter – so go ahead and load up on the New York Yankees stack today in cash games and smaller field tournaments – the prices are still far too low.
The Red Sox could be an interesting pivot off the Yankees with higher price points on their stars like Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez and Xander Boegaerts against Corey Oswalt, who in 9 starts has surrendered 13 HR’s with a 2.86 HR/9 to RHB. All three Red Sox hitters have a .260+ ISO mark against RHB this season.
On the other side of this game – you know who nobody is going to play? Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto who are both over $10K on FantasyDraft. Their opposing arm, Rick Porcello, is a fly ball pitcher with a 40% HC rate and near .200 ISO mark against LHB in 2018. At home against LHB in 2018 – Porcellio has a 2.89 HR/9 rate so you can stack the crazy high-priced Mets left-handed hitters here at nearly no ownership.
Slate Overview: The pitching is ugly on this slate and I think the opportunity cost for missing is low so I am fine taking cheap shots on Gant/Reed and loading up on bats in tournaments today. The Yankees are going to be so popular that I think you simply play the fade, count on variance and lock in any of the other offenses that are similarly talented – especially when the prices for the Yankees are cheaper than stacking the Red Sox or even the Mets!
MLB DFS – Main Slate Overview:
The Main Slate pitching is much easier to zero in on – you simply lock in German Marquez ($22.8K) in San Francisco against the Giants as your SP1. Over the last month, Marquez has a 36% K rate which is second in all of baseball and faces a Giants team that is leading the league in K % over that same period at 28%. So you get a pitcher in one of the best pitcher’s parks – with elite K upside, going against a team striking out more than any team in baseball the last month – this is player #1 in all my line-ups tonight.
Speaking of good ballparks – Eric Lauer ($12.8K) will pitch at home in San Diego against a K heavy Texas team as a -150 home favorite while the Rangers have one of the lowest projected run totals, a near full run lower than their season average. After a brief stint on the DL, Lauer made his second start since returning and struck out 8 Reds batters in 5 innings and worked up to 86 pitches so with 90+ pitches expected today – this looks like a great point per dollar value SP2 to pair with Marquez on the Main Slate.
If you are into BvP – and come on – who isn’t – how can you ignore Travis Shaw against Ivan Nova today? We all know Nova is an extreme when it comes to splits as lefties crush him and he limits the damage to righties – but Shaw takes this ownership to a whole new level. In his career – Shaw is 12 for 16 with 3 HR’s and a .688 ISO against Nova. By the way – he is only $8.1K on FantasyDraft – lock button. With Nova giving up a .212 ISO to LHB this season – expand this stack and include guys like Christian Yelich, Eric Thames (if he plays) and Mike Moustakas for a high upside stack on the Main Slate.
The Angels will take on Erasmo Ramirez tonight – a pitcher with a .347 ISO and 43% HC rate allowed to LHB so fire up bargain bin Jose Fernandez alongside Kole Calhoun and Shohei Ohtani here for a cheap three-man stack on the Main Slate. If you are going this far with it – you almost have to include Mike Trout but this becomes doable due to the salary on Fernandez at only $5.8K.
Slate Overview: The Main Slate seems much more straightforward than the Early Slate – lock in Marquez and the Brewers lefties and then stack up the Angels.
Enjoy this day of baseball and we will take Sunday off to focus on enjoying some NFL DFS before returning on Monday!
Next. NFL DFS Week 2 Game by Game Breakdowns. dark
Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!